GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[hockeynorth]

So here's what I would do:

This offseason:

• Sign Morgan Rielly to 8 x 7.25M, that gets him 58M. If needed push it to 7.5 to get him 60M. Lets call it 7.5M to be safe.

2021-2022:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Nylander-Tavares-Kase
Ritchie-Kerfoot-Spezza
Mikheyev-Kampf-Simmonds
Semyonov

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Liljegren
Sandin

Campbell
Mrazek

2022-2023:

• Sign Campbell to 4 x 4M
• Kerfoot traded to Seattle for a 3rd
• Mikheyev walks
• Sandin signs for 1 x 2M
• Liljegren signs for 2 x 2.5M
• Brooks signs for 1 x 0.9M
• Trade Dermott or Holl for a 2nd + 3rd
• Sign bottom six C (Victor Rask) at 1 x 1.25M

Amirov - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Rask - Anderson
Ritchie - Brooks - Kampf

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Sandin - Holl

Campbell
Mrazek

(Simmonds in minors)

It would be stupidly tight unless you get one of the 2 young D, Campbell or Rielly even cheaper, and you'd be banking a lot on internal growth, but it is in theory doable. The biggest hole to fill would be 3C, which ideally a guy like Abramov or Abbruzzeze or the return from Dermott/Holl can fill.

This is why I think it's critically important we get each of the young guys I have pencilled in as many games as possible this season. That roster is deep if Amirov and Robertson are able to handle prime time roles, but if not, you'll have a problem.

So, ideally Rielly signs at 6.2M and then we'd have a sufficient amount of wiggle room, but I really believe he can't come in above 7.5M, since the roster I listed is literally right on the cap ceiling (you'd have to accrue ~2k in space before you could run this squad).

 

[hockeynorth]

Why are we even discussing Rielly?

It's to ******* late to sort out now, that bus has well and truly left the station

I seriously doubt we can afford to resign him so enjoy him this season and wave goodbye as he walks for nothing next off-season

Leafs mismanagement, you can't beat it

why is it too late exactly?

 

[Sypher04]

why is it too late exactly?

Because the sky is always falling of course

 

[dubplatepressure]

we technically can. We can fit rielly in at 8x8 with
The same d. Campbell at 4 and cheap bottom 6..

Final nail in the coffin if we sign him at that rate for the next 8.

 

[Kiwi]

why is it too late exactly?

Because this needed to be sorted out around the draft at the very latest and you would have to be a simple sob to think we can do something about it now with extremely limited trade partners, no cap space and no replacement for him

This isn't exactly new, just another valuable player walking for nothing at the end of a contract

 

[Dreakmur]

why is it too late exactly?

The highest prices have more than likely been paid. Those who really needed a defenseman likely already acquired them.

 

[Kiwi]

Because the sky is always falling of course

No it's called reality, rather than a mindless sycophant

 

[Legion34]

Final nail in the coffin if we sign him at that rate for the next 8.

It may be. I mean. I personally think we try to get guys in the 5-6 range.

but if the NHL has agreed to

82.5
83.5
84.5
85.5

for the next 4 I think we can do it. Considering that D are making 9-11

 

[Legion34]

The highest prices have more than likely been paid. Those who really needed a defenseman likely already acquired them.

calgary. Pitt. The idea is that rielly would be an upgrade. We could take a lesser D if rielly is gone for term to make the next few years easier

if that was true then

 

[Dreakmur]

calgary. Pitt. The idea is that rielly would be an upgrade. We could take a lesser D if rielly is gone for term to make the next few years easier

if that was true then

Downgrading our #1 defenseman at the peak of our window of contention doesn’t seem ideal…. Unless of curse we aren’t actually in contention…

 

[Sypher04]

The highest prices have more than likely been paid. Those who really needed a defenseman likely already acquired them.

I can definitely see the argument that we missed getting max value, but there's no reason whatsoever that it's either re-sign or he walks for nothing because he hasn't been traded yet

 

[Sypher04]

No it's called reality, rather than a mindless sycophant

Lol ok then

 

[Legion34]

Downgrading our #1 defenseman at the peak of our window of contention doesn’t seem ideal…. Unless of curse we aren’t actually in contention…

You do realize that many teams have done that. Tampa. Colorado.

teams losing their number 1 d are not that happy now. Look at stl. Carolina.

seems like a great plan.
Is this our only shot? Not next year. Because losing d for nothing seems even dumber.

Again Kyle dubas himself said that he isn’t comfortable with rielly playing out the year and losing Him for nothing. The GM came out and said it.

 

[Dreakmur]

You do realize that many teams have done that. Tampa. Colorado.

If you’re talking about Barrie, he wasn’t Colorado’s #1.

Hedman has been Tampa’s #1 since 2014.

teams losing their number 1 d are not that happy now. Look at stl. Carolina.

Hamilton was never Carolina’s #1.

Is this our only shot? Not next year. Because losing d for nothing seems even dumber.

Downgrading an important position makes it a worse shot.

Again Kyle dubas himself said that he isn’t comfortable with rielly playing out the year and losing Him for nothing. The GM came out and said it.

It’s one thing to hope for a good deal, but if one doesn’t develop, he’s not going to give Rielly away. I don’t see any good deals for Rielly out there.

 

[Kurtz]

You do realize that many teams have done that. Tampa. Colorado.

teams losing their number 1 d are not that happy now. Look at stl. Carolina.

seems like a great plan.
Is this our only shot? Not next year. Because losing d for nothing seems even dumber.

Again Kyle dubas himself said that he isn’t comfortable with rielly playing out the year and losing Him for nothing. The GM came out and said it.

Tampa and Colorado traded Hedman and Makar?

 

[Dreakmur]

Tampa and Colorado traded Hedman and Makar?

Toews was Colorado’s #1 last season. Erik Johnson probably would have been if he was healthy.

 

[Menzinger]

Teams that are trying to win the cup let players walk all the time. That’s the whole point of the salary cap - good teams lose players and bad teams gain them.

Either we’re trying to win and we keep Rielly…. Or we aren’t and we need to start unloading the core.

I don't think it's quite as black and white as that. Contending teams also re fine their rosters without having to blow up the core.

I agree the Leafs wanting to win now certainly complicates the idea of trading Rielly, but doesn't necessarily cancel the idea all together. It all depends on the return

 

[Nooodles]

Because this needed to be sorted out around the draft at the very latest and you would have to be a simple sob to think we can do something about it now with extremely limited trade partners, no cap space and no replacement for him

This isn't exactly new, just another valuable player walking for nothing at the end of a contract

Its f***ing august

 

[Menzinger]

Why are we even discussing Rielly?

It's to ******* late to sort out now, that bus has well and truly left the station

I seriously doubt we can afford to resign him so enjoy him this season and wave goodbye as he walks for nothing next off-season

Leafs mismanagement, you can't beat it

I'm not sure I'd agree with the idea of it being too late. I think too many folks (not you, broadly speaking here) get tunnel vision of trades having to happen either at the draft or first day of free agency.

A Rielly trade in the leadup to the season could still happen but would likely have to include an NHL ready D man (like a Holl type) as part of the package

 

[deprw]

Thats an inaccurate way of looking at it IMO especially the cap world.

The relative importance of JT's cap hit and his contribution versus relative importance of Kadri's cap hit and his contribution to relative importance of a solid D and their contribution and perhaps the shimmering impact on Matthews and Marner contracts also come into play.

JT is making about 7 million more than Kadri i.e. more than double Kadri's cap hit; Kadri is good for abuot 0.56 ppg; that means JT should be producing about 2 x 0.56 = 1.12 ppg for it to be just even not even a net positive contribution. JT's contract also had impact on Matthews/Marner contracts.

An absolute way of looking at it in a cap world is probably not the right approach.

Relative importance of Kadri in playoffs was 4games suspension, so I don't think we should compare those two. It was no brainer move back then when we could add Tavares, only defenseman his contract has blocked was Pietrangelo and we have no clue if he would have signed here and for what money. Same reason we might have to sign Rielly, because we cannot replace him if we lose him.

 

[deprw]

I'm not sure I'd agree with the idea of it being too late. I think too many folks (not you, broadly speaking here) get tunnel vision of trades having to happen either at the draft or first day of free agency.

A Rielly trade in the leadup to the season could still happen but would likely have to include an NHL ready D man (like a Holl type) as part of the package

I don't know how it could be too late, because we could sign him 1st of august. Off course captain hindsights can say that we should have traded him during draft and then what? We actually couldn't acquire any type of replacement for Rielly, if we want to pay 9mil to dman I'd pay Rielly rather than Hamilton. Market will be crazy next few years so I'd try to sign Rielly to 8 year extension and go from there. Our defense wasn't the problem.

 

[Legion34]

Tampa and Colorado traded Hedman and Makar?

rielly is Herman or makar?

 

[Legion34]

If you’re talking about Barrie, he wasn’t Colorado’s #1.

Hedman has been Tampa’s #1 since 2014.



Hamilton was never Carolina’s #1.



Downgrading an important position makes it a worse shot.



It’s one thing to hope for a good deal, but if one doesn’t develop, he’s not going to give Rielly away. I don’t see any good deals for Rielly out there.

many leaf fans don’t believe rielly is 1

you might not see any good deals out there. But your subjective beliefs based on nothing have no bearing.

All we know is that dubas was asked about being comfortable letting rielly play out his ufa.

he said no.

 

[Gabriel426]

rielly is Herman or makar?

Reilly is better than both, lol.

 

[Legion34]

Reilly is better than both, lol.

well than 10 million it is I guess