Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[dubplatepressure]

I think it just speaks to the underlying importance of investing in goaltender development. Something this org has lacked forever. Too focused on the skater side.

Have we? Or have we just not seen the results of those investments recently? Scott, Woll, Petruzelli, Vehvilainen, Kaskisuo, Sparks, Stalock, Bibeau, Gibson, MacIntyre, Scrivens, Rynnas, etc. Doesn't seem to be for lack of trying here - we're taking a lot of shots on these lower rung tenders. We just haven't hit on any of them.

 

[Fogelhund]

CJ says Leafs not interested in Gibson to date. Thinks Mik could get $4m (see yah) but no talks with him or Soup yet. Says they will talk to Mik soon. Sounds like Soup will walk.

I mean it would be an expensive deal in trade assets, big cap, and you are betting he returns to form, that hasn't been seen in three years. That's tough.

I really don't have answers at this point though. Part of me wonders about Georgiev... I mean the guys is moody as hell, has ups and downs... he's an RFA, won't get paid a lot, and it's likely he's asking to be moved. There has been signs of a good goalie, but he was surpassed by Shersterkin and has been pouting since. If he has an opportunity, maybe he's better... but again, a voodoo risk. Kuemper?

 

[Fogelhund]

hey you never know.

I think it just speaks to the underlying importance of investing in goaltender development. Something this org has lacked forever. Too focused on the skater side.

I’m just not sure that a 1A/1B bargain tandem is the right call. Your banking on one being hot at the right time. Sure there’s no long term contract handcuffs but the instability can be a problem.

Also free agency is slim pickings for this year and next. Hard to say what the right call is.

I’m leaning towards the “trade for Gibson if the price is right” camp.

Goaltending is voodoo, and half luck. Shesterkin was a 4th round pick, and became great in Russia... not in the Rangers system. Vasilevskiy'was a first round pick, but he also developed in Russia. These guys weren't developed with their NHL teams.

 

[SprDaVE]

I mean it would be an expensive deal in trade assets, big cap, and you are betting he returns to form, that hasn't been seen in three years. That's tough.

I really don't have answers at this point though. Part of me wonders about Georgiev... I mean the guys is moody as hell, has ups and downs... he's an RFA, won't get paid a lot, and it's like he's asking to be moved. There has been signs of a good goalie, but he was surpassed by Shersterkin and has been pouting since. If he has an opportunity, maybe he's better... but again, a voodoo risk. Kuemper?

Kuemper is the sure shot signing. He's 32 years old though and giving him term might be a risky one. Can you sign him for ~6M over 5-6 years? If so, I think he's the best option by far.

Campbell should still be an option. I wonder if he comes down on his price after talking to teams?

If Georgiev isn't qualified, I think he's one of my favourites to sign. Like always, it really depends on the contract.

I think an underrated option would be Brayden Holtby. 33 years old in September but I think he can be a solid option if the Leafs want a good veteran. He played well for Dallas.

 

[613Leafer]

hey you never know.

I think it just speaks to the underlying importance of investing in goaltender development. Something this org has lacked forever. Too focused on the skater side.

I’m just not sure that a 1A/1B bargain tandem is the right call. Your banking on one being hot at the right time. Sure there’s no long term contract handcuffs but the instability can be a problem.

Also free agency is slim pickings for this year and next. Hard to say what the right call is.

I’m leaning towards the “trade for Gibson if the price is right” camp.

The Leafs inability to draft and develop a starting goalie is a MASSIVE organizational weakness. How many picks, prospects, etcs have we thrown out the window trying to trade our way out of this problem? Seems every couple of years we're trading away a prospect + 2nd, a 1st rounder, etc for a goalie, and most of those trades have been flops.

In terms of trading for Gibson - it's obviously risky, given the contract and poor stats for three straight years. Yes, people are finding ways to explain those stats (e.g. starts against quality opponents, high danger save %, etc), but at the end of the day, he's had bad stats for three straight years, whereas goalies on other bad teams (and even his own team in Stolarz) are able to put up better stats while also playing for a bad team. So could he massively rebound if put in a different situation? Sure, potentially, but he could also become an anchor contract if he's anything less than a bona fide top 5-10 starter.

If we do trade for him, Anaheim would clearly be in full rebuild mode. I don't think they'd have interest in Nylander with only 2 years left on his deal. I think they'd be wanting Sandin+, Robertson++, or something along those lines. Which I'd be open to, as long as we were quite confident we were getting a bona fide top 5-10 starter.

 

[Stigma]

I mean it would be an expensive deal in trade assets, big cap, and you are betting he returns to form, that hasn't been seen in three years. That's tough.

I really don't have answers at this point though. Part of me wonders about Georgiev... I mean the guys is moody as hell, has ups and downs... he's an RFA, won't get paid a lot, and it's likely he's asking to be moved. There has been signs of a good goalie, but he was surpassed by Shersterkin and has been pouting since. If he has an opportunity, maybe he's better... but again, a voodoo risk. Kuemper?

I would be intrigued by a Blackwood/Georgiev combo, but that would require a lot of moving pieces and transactions. Not impossible, but not likely.

 

[dubplatepressure]

The Leafs inability to draft and develop a starting goalie is a MASSIVE organizational weakness. How many picks, prospects, etcs have we thrown out the window trying to trade our way out of this problem? Seems every couple of years we're trading away a prospect + 2nd, a 1st rounder, etc for a goalie, and most of those trades have been flops.

In terms of trading for Gibson - it's obviously risky, given the contract and poor stats for three straight years. Yes, people are finding ways to explain those stats (e.g. starts against quality opponents, high danger save %, etc), but at the end of the day, he's had bad stats for three straight years, whereas goalies on other bad teams (and even his own team in Stolarz) are able to put up better stats while also playing for a bad team. So could he massively rebound if put in a different situation? Sure, potentially, but he could also become an anchor contract if he's anything less than a bona fide top 5-10 starter.

If we do trade for him, Anaheim would clearly be in full rebuild mode. I don't think they'd have interest in Nylander with only 2 years left on his deal. I think they'd be wanting Sandin+, Robertson++, or something along those lines. Which I'd be open to, as long as we were quite confident we were getting a bona fide top 5-10 starter.

Which we can't be with Gibson, so lets move on.

 

[Fogelhund]

I would be intrigued by a Blackwood/Georgiev combo, but that would require a lot of moving pieces and transactions. Not impossible, but not likely.

There have been a few rumours that Philly could trade Hart... Hart/Georgiev would be interesting too. Pretty high risk though.

 

[aingefan]

The tender position opening can be filled lots of decent ways, but theres not a readily available option that stands out to me.
I’d still be scouting the trade market for someone about to emerge rather than rebound, or hope won’t decline. That’s probably the best way to answer the question, rather than make more.

 

[LeafChief]

CJ says Leafs not interested in Gibson to date. Thinks Mik could get $4m (see yah) but no talks with him or Soup yet. Says they will talk to Mik soon. Sounds like Soup will walk.

That all makes sense.

Mik disappears in the playoffs so definitely no point in paying him 4 mill. Campbell isn't a 5 million dollar goalie so if that's the hard stance he's taking, see ya later to the both of them.

 

[Knies iT]

Getting Gibson is a no brainer. He’s been an elite goalie his entire life and possesses elite traits.

You’re not winning a cup with Ville Husso or whatever mediocre goaltending names are being thrown around on here.

I would also kick tires on Carter Hart. Philly is an absolute mess.

Some of the takes on Gibson in here are funny. People are talking like he’s legitimate trash based solely on his sv%. Goaltending is probably the least understood position among fans. Ya, the guy forgot how to play hockey at 26 after having a decade of elite reputation. This isn’t a late blooming Matt Murray who had no pedigree only to play behind a top 5 goat and then crumble.

Gibson’s cap hit is a risk and his attitude would need to be looked in to, but he has undisputed elite talent and can be one of the best goalies in the world behind this team. He is in his athletic prime and can justify almost all of the term on that deal from purely a talent POV.

 

[thusk]

You asking me to ignore the games where he sucked?

????

You think its the same thing playing against tampa colorado toronto florida than montreal, ottawa, arizona, buffalo?

Kuemper played 4 years in Arizona and had a 0.912% save percentage and a 2.58 goals against average in that span. He played 55 games in 2018-2019 where he had a .925% save percentage and the top scorer for Arizona that year had 47 points. Their 2nd best scorer was Galchenyuk with 41 points.

You can still play well on a bad team. It's a bad excuse. That's the risk you take. You can't just assume he'll bounce back on a better team, at least not back to his elite levels. The value should represent his level of play.

When ducks was winning start of season, Gibson had same kind of stats...

It would be interesting to have team stats start of season to january 23 and january 24 to end of season. Ducks should be on middle o the league 1st half and last of expected goal against and high scoring chances second half...

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Have we? Or have we just not seen the results of those investments recently? Scott, Woll, Petruzelli, Vehvilainen, Kaskisuo, Sparks, Stalock, Bibeau, Gibson, MacIntyre, Scrivens, Rynnas, etc. Doesn't seem to be for lack of trying here - we're taking a lot of shots on these lower rung tenders. We just haven't hit on any of them.

You hit the nail on the head with your own statement. Lower rung goalies are just that.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

I think its obvious to everyone we need to move Kerfoot, Holl, Mrazek. Trade kerfoot for a 2nd , Holl for a couple 3rds, and use those assets to move Mrazek. I also think we need to give Robertson, Sandin, Liljegren, Steeves, and Holmberg real shots at making this team or in sandin and Liljegrens case play further up in the line up. I have a feeling were pleasantly surprised by most of them this season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Some of the takes on Gibson in here are funny. People are talking like he’s legitimate trash based solely on his sv%. Goaltending is probably the least understood position among fans. Ya, the guy forgot how to play hockey at 26 after having a decade of elite reputation.

Gibson isn't trash; he's very athletically talented and has performed at a high level before, but he's a very risky acquisition at his current cap hit and term. He doesn't have a decade of being elite. He has an excellent 3 year stretch from 2016-2019 (+49.3 GSAx in 170 GP), and pretty much the opposite from 2019-2022 (-39.7 GSAx in 143 GP). It's understandable for some to be hesitant.

 

[RomanianLeafs]

I would love a trade with Nahville..Nylander + Holl for Tomasino, Sissons and their first round pick..Tomasino could replace Nylander on a line with Tavares and Sissons is a useful player to have

 

[Knies iT]

Gibson isn't trash; he's very athletically talented and has performed at a high level before, but he's a very risky acquisition at his current cap hit and term. He doesn't have a decade of being elite. He has an excellent 3 year stretch from 2016-2019 (+49.3 GSAx in 170 GP), and pretty much the opposite from 2019-2022 (-39.7 GSAx in 143 GP). It's understandable for some to be hesitant.

In addition to his elite play in all of the U17s, U18s, U20s, USHL, USDP, OHL, AHL, WC.

This is a life long stud goalie with a scroll of a pedigree. He did not just lose his ability. It is an environmental issue.

 

[mydnyte]

Some of the takes on Gibson in here are funny. People are talking like he’s legitimate trash based solely on his sv%. Goaltending is probably the least understood position among fans. Ya, the guy forgot how to play hockey at 26 after having a decade of elite reputation. This isn’t a late blooming Matt Murray who had no pedigree only to play behind a top 5 goat and then crumble.

Gibson’s cap hit is a risk and his attitude would need to be looked in to, but he has undisputed elite talent and can be one of the best goalies in the world behind this team. He is in his athletic prime and can justify almost all of the term on that deal from purely a talent POV.

here's a fun goalie fact ...the worse the team is in front of you, the more shots you get, and the likelihood is it can actually inflate your save % over your actual talent (i.e. Forsberg) while a 'good' will give up far less shots/chances, so every goal you give up takes out a bigger chunk of that save %
then you also need to factor in the actual high danger shots, and thats a difficult stat to interpret because, a turnover high danger shot, is actually much harder to stop than a typical high danger shot (where offensive team has control) as the time to get set is far less on a turnover, and why so many 'bad' looking goals come from turnovers.
Gibson's poor save % on a mediocre team scares the heck out of me, he should have far better numbers better than a Forsberg for example

 

[mydnyte]

In addition to his elite play in all of the U17s, U18s, U20s, USHL, USDP, OHL, AHL, WC.

This is a life long stud goalie with a scroll of a pedigree. He did not just lose his ability. It is an environmental issue.

goalie is an odd position, sometimes a good goalie just loses it (Murray) and sometimes they develop late like Markstrom who didnt look like much his first 5-6 seasons
Binnington is another example, one year he's great, then he sucks, then gets his form back again... you need consistency in your goalie, its not the position you want a random skillset.
Mrazek is another great example, he's either hot and unbeatable, or he looks like an AHL backup goalie.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In addition to his elite play in all of the U17s, U18s, U20s, USHL, USDP, OHL, AHL, WC.

Most goalies that make the NHL will have high-end play through their lesser leagues. I'm not sure that what he did as a kid is all that relevant now. Goaltending can turn pretty abruptly, and different goalies adjusted differently to the equipment changes and such a few years ago.

He may be able to rebound in the right situation, but that's a significant risk at his current cap hit and term. This is more than just Anaheim not being great defensively.

 

[Brobust]

????

You think its the same thing playing against tampa colorado toronto florida than montreal, ottawa, arizona, buffalo?


When ducks was winning start of season, Gibson had same kind of stats...

It would be interesting to have team stats start of season to january 23 and january 24 to end of season. Ducks should be on middle o the league 1st half and last of expected goal against and high scoring chances second half...

So he takes nights off and we should be ok with that?

What do you think those splits mean? Why was the cut off 20 teams when only 16 make the playoffs?

 

[kb]

Booooo but it makes sense

I won’t be upset if they don’t get Gibson because it could be indicative of the cost and I won’t be upset about not having that contract on the books. Goalies are voodoo.

This has always been my point.

People are saying we need a surefire number one and then trot out Gibson and his .903 % over the past 3 seasons like he's some sort of answer.

If the Leafs get that level of play, they are done for.

Sniff around Winnipeg.....there is a bonafide surefire #1G there. Don't even require the endless made up excuses for his 3 years of piss poor play like Gibson absolutely needs from his apologists.

 

[Legion34]

Meh I personally wanted Gibson. I think going into Mattys major contract year you would want to have a locked up goalie for him to know what the future is.

I also have faith in at least one of petruzelli/McKay being a legit goalie. Maybe blocking development hurts the position to sign goalies?

CJ has repeatedly said the leafs aren’t in on Gibson and not talking to Campbell. Dubas has to have a plan right?

Can you really just go to July 1 and hope you are getting a goalie? Will Matty sign if we don’t have one?

Makes no sense. I think he has to have a plan. And I don’t see hoping and wishing on bargain basement goalies as a good one. The time for a hill/kakohnen/Comrie was last year IMO when we had Campbell locked up.

 

[Brobust]

Some of the takes on Gibson in here are funny. People are talking like he’s legitimate trash based solely on his sv%. Goaltending is probably the least understood position among fans. Ya, the guy forgot how to play hockey at 26 after having a decade of elite reputation. This isn’t a late blooming Matt Murray who had no pedigree only to play behind a top 5 goat and then crumble.

Gibson’s cap hit is a risk and his attitude would need to be looked in to, but he has undisputed elite talent and can be one of the best goalies in the world behind this team. He is in his athletic prime and can justify almost all of the term on that deal from purely a talent POV.

I'm not arguing against a Gibson trade. The issue I have is that certain posters are willing to pay an absurd price for him.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Gibson for 25th OA + Hirvonen + Mrazek
Holl for Dallas’ 2nd
Kerfoot to Arizona for a 2022 2nd and a 2023 2nd

Re-sign Lyub 2 x $1.75
Sign Vatrano 4 x $3
Sign Namestikov 1 x $1.75
Sign Acciari 1 x $1.75

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kampf-Vatrano
Namestikov-Acciari-Simmonds

Rielly-Lyub
Gio-Lily
Muzzin-Brodie
Sandin

Gibson
Kallgren

Some veteran wing depth with physicality … also could give Knies a spot later in the season.