GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VII

[Morgs]

I like Kerfoot with Nylander a lot, but idk why people are so against moving him to the 3rd line. He's shown his effectiveness there too, and it's not like he's a world beater in the top-6 even if he meshes well with JT/WN.

It's the clearest spot imo on this roster that could use an upgrade with how good Bunting has been, but what's available/cost/fit is the question on whether we *should* upgrade the spot. Let's remember how it's the same people that are asking for a guy who can bury and bang bodies are the guys who placed Ritchie squarely in the top-6 at the beginning of the year too. JT/WN just need a capable body that doesn't ruin plays, is good in puck battles, can bury every so often, and can make 10 nice passes a game. If they can get a better player (Giroux/Hertl/FF09) for that line, great. If not, don't bother. Those three have shown how good they are and it's probably nothing more than a slump.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

You clearly you rely a little too much on numbers, without applying context to those numbers. He's on a bad team, his numbers are bad... oh... what a surprise no one could have ever predicted that. If you take my post in the context that Chara would replace Holl or Lilly, which is what I said in the original post, in this case if we got Manson, Manson replaces Holl and Chara replaces Lily, yeah Chara is an upgrade over Lily.

Chara is an upgrade over Lily in the "being tall" department and that's about it.

Yes Chara is on a bad team, but he's also been bad in a sheltered role with more offensive zone starts than he's had in a decade.

Sandin/Liljegren have been one of the best 3rs pairs in the league both offensively and defensively and both have shown flashes of pushing their way into top 4 responsibility.

Holl needs an upgrade for sure, but Manson isn't the guy either.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Fleury 'would love a chance to win,' but possible trade 'still a big if' - TSN.ca

Marc-Andre Fleury said Wednesday he is expecting to have a conversation with the Chicago Blackhawks ahead of the March 21 trade deadline regarding a potential move.

Fleury, a pending unrestricted free agent, could see his time in Chicago short-lived after being acquired by the team last summer from the Vegas Golden Knights.

"I haven't personally [talked with Chicago]," Fleury said. "No, not much to add to that. I'm sure we will, right? But the deadline's still weeks away, a month away. Still got a lot of time."

Fleury, ranked third in TSN's first Trade Bait board, has a 16-17-3 record with a 2.88 goals-against average and .910 save percentage this season with Chicago. He carries a cap hit of $7 million as he plays out the last of a three-year deal signed with Vegas in 2018.

The 37-year-old has played in 18 NHL seasons with the Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins and Golden Knights, winning three Stanley Cups with the Penguins in 2009, 2016 and 2017 and leading the Golden Knights to the Cup Final in 2018.

The reigning Vezina Trophy winner added that he'd welcome the opportunity to chase another Cup.

"If … if … I move, I would love a chance to win," Fleury said. "That's what I play for and that's what I love. But like I said, it's still a big if at this point."

One place Fleury does not appear bound for is Vegas, after general manager Kelly McCrimmon refuted a report the team was looking to re-acquire the goaltender earlier this week.

 

[LeafSteel]

Hit Chicago up for:

Hagel
Connor Murphy
M.A.F

……. and call it a day.

 

[zeke]

Even Strength Scoring Paces - Kerfoot comparison to some other top-6ers on elite teams

(included at least two top-6 forwards from each of the other top-5 teams)

FLA Reinhart 22gls/57pts
COL Nichushkin 23gls/54pts
COL Burakovsky 20gls/52pts
TOR Kerfoot 13gls/52pts
FLA Bennett 35gls/50pts
TBL Palat 26gls/50pts
TBL Cirelli 19gls/43pts
CAR Trochek 14gls/40pts
CAR Necas 13gls/40pts
CAR Teravainen 8gls/33pts
CAR Staal 4gls/24pts

 

[MoreMogilny]

Im fine with Kerfoot.

What I’m not fine with is our overall forward depth in the playoffs.

I fully believe we need to add a solid impact forward that can create on their own. Prefer a centre if possible. We need to make ourselves impossible to shut down.

 

[ToneDog]

We need a right handed Muzzin because if Muzz goes down again, we have zero grit on D. Last year we had Bogo.

Thinking the plan all along was to use 37 and 38 for the season and grab a vet at the TDLwhen his cap hit will be much lower.

 

[D00bis]

we need a power foward (doesnt have to be a big face puncher I mean more of a forechecking machine with skill) and a defensive defencemen that can be good in the corners and in front of the net.

nick ritchie and robertson for lawson crouse and a 3rd?

3nd or c prospect for scott mayfeild

 

[Fogelhund]

Nobody has a perfect team, and the more you watch a team, the more you see their flaws. Of course, we'd all love to upgrade a bunch of spots, and it's not hard to see where we could be better. But, Salary Caps, other teams needs, etc, make this pretty difficult. Some people think we need to upgrade the forwards, some the D. I'd love to bring in a more physical second pairing LW, and a physical second pairing RD. If I had to choose, I'd go with the RD. It's certainly possible to bring in both, if such players are available, it comes down to availability, and are we willing to spend that much currency.

 

[Fogelhund]

we need a power foward (doesnt have to be a big face puncher I mean more of a forechecking machine with skill) and a defensive defencemen that can be good in the corners and in front of the net.

nick ritchie and robertson for lawson crouse and a 3rd?

3nd or c prospect for scott mayfeild

Mayfield would cost more than this.

 

[ToneDog]

we need a power foward (doesnt have to be a big face puncher I mean more of a forechecking machine with skill) and a defensive defencemen that can be good in the corners and in front of the net.

nick ritchie and robertson for lawson crouse and a 3rd?

3nd or c prospect for scott mayfeild

You are not wrong but I can't see us getting Crouse and a 3rd for Ritchie and Robbie.

 

[D00bis]

Mayfield would cost more than this.

really? look at the stats for him and holl as a comparison, one year younger same stats. do you think holl would get more then that?

 

[Morgs]

we need a power foward (doesnt have to be a big face puncher I mean more of a forechecking machine with skill) and a defensive defencemen that can be good in the corners and in front of the net.

nick ritchie and robertson for lawson crouse and a 3rd?

3nd or c prospect for scott mayfeild

A) no way the Leafs are trading Nick Rob for Lawson Crouse. He's a fine enough player, but like.. that's all he is. I'd argue Robby may have a more positive impact than Crouse today on a NHL team. You'd be trading an A prospect+ for at best a 3LW, more likely 4LW on a good team.

B) this is about what I'd pay for Mayfield, but I highly doubt NYI or any of their fans would appreciate it.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Lindholm should be the number 1 target for the leafs. We can trade Muzz in the offseason and resign Lindholm. Reilly Brodie Lindholm is as good of a top 3 as you can hope for with our offense.

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: Lawson Crouse
To Arizona: 2022 2nd Rounder + Roni Hirvonen/Nicholas Abruzzese


To Toronto: Isaac Ratcliffe + A contract or two Philly wants to get rid of
To Philadelphia: Nick Ritchie


Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Crouse - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - Kase
Mikheyev - Engvall - Simmonds/Spezza

 

[D00bis]

A) no way the Leafs are trading Nick Rob for Lawson Crouse. He's a fine enough player, but like.. that's all he is. I'd argue Robby may have a more positive impact than Crouse today on a NHL team. You'd be trading an A prospect+ for at best a 3LW, more likely 4LW on a good team.

B) this is about what I'd pay for Mayfield, but I highly doubt NYI or any of their fans would appreciate it.

I think a player like lawson crouse would look great along side JT and Nylander he can create space protect and have the speed to keep up with willy. I dont see him as a 3rd or 4th liner. Hes also defensively responsible in his own zone. Ideally you want a rickard rakell type skill player in that slot but I want what i thought we were getting in ritchie in that 2nd line LW slot. Matthew Knies is the kind of player im excited for but thats a couple years away.

 

[MarMarSab3]

Delete

 

[MarMarSab3]

The biggest problem I see is Nylander and Tavares together it just doesn't work, either swap Nylander with Marner or Move Nylander to C Tavares to LW and Kase RW

Bunting Matthews Marner
Tavares Nylander Kase
Kerfoot Kampf Mikheyev
Engvall Spezza Simmonds

 

[zeke]

Lindholm should be the number 1 target for the leafs. We can trade Muzz in the offseason and resign Lindholm. Reilly Brodie Lindholm is as good of a top 3 as you can hope for with our offense.

interesting target, but I'd worry that he's more reputation than performance at this point. not sure he's actually that good right now.

 

[Judas Tavares]

To Toronto: Lawson Crouse
To Arizona: 2022 2nd Rounder + Roni Hirvonen/Nicholas Abruzzese


To Toronto: Isaac Ratcliffe + A contract or two Philly wants to get rid of
To Philadelphia: Nick Ritchie


Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Crouse - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - Kase
Mikheyev - Engvall - Simmonds/Spezza

This is a fair price for Crouse, but still a little high for my liking. No way I'm giving up Robertson in a Crouse deal though. I get that he has been injury prone, but the fact that he is producing extremely well in the AHL and he isn't even 20 and a half yet is very promising. Some guys can't produce well at that level until they are 22 or 23. There is clearly upside here if he can stay healthy. We can debate how big the if is. For me, the if isn't big enough to trade him unless it is for quite the impactful player.

 

[zeke]

We need a right handed Muzzin because if Muzz goes down again, we have zero grit on D. Last year we had Bogo.

Thinking the plan all along was to use 37 and 38 for the season and grab a vet at the TDLwhen his cap hit will be much lower.

Bogo was our worst dman defensively in the playoffs last year.

 

[Morgs]

I think a player like lawson crouse would look great along side JT and Nylander he can create space protect and have the speed to keep up with willy. I dont see him as a 3rd or 4th liner. Hes also defensively responsible in his own zone. Ideally you want a rickard rakell type skill player in that slot but I want what i thought we were getting in ritchie in that 2nd line LW slot. Matthew Knies is the kind of player im excited for but thats a couple years away.

People talk about his competence as a 2way player, but both on Dom's card and JFresh's he grades out as poor defensively virtually every season besides this one. Can he be a top-6 player with better guys? Sure, its possible. A lot of people thought the same with Ritchie too. He's not worth that right now in a trade though and there's less than 0 chance I'd be willing to give up significant assets for a guy who's never shown to be an overly effective NHL player, especially offensively- which is required for a top-6 player.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

interesting target, but I'd worry that he's more reputation than performance at this point. not sure he's actually that good right now.

I've kept an eye on him this season, he still seems just as impactful as he has been in the past. Still a number 1 shutdown Ld who could make a world of difference for us.

 

[D00bis]

People talk about his competence as a 2way player, but both on Dom's card and JFresh's he grades out as poor defensively virtually every season besides this one. Can he be a top-6 player with better guys? Sure, its possible. A lot of people thought the same with Ritchie too. He's not worth that right now in a trade though and there's less than 0 chance I'd be willing to give up significant assets for a guy who's never shown to be an overly effective NHL player, especially offensively- which is required for a top-6 player.

what would be a comparable LW you would want instead of Crouse? (I mean this as a positive discussion I know how antagonistic this board can be)

 

[zeke]

The Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander line is good, but just not as dominant as you'd want it to be.

They're at 52.4% expected goals share and 55.4% actual goals share. Solid numbers, but just solid. And they probably get fairly light duty - both the Matthews line and the Kampf line are relied on for more defensive zone usage, and of course the matthews line gets the toughest opposition matchups.

And they especially fall short in comparison to the Matthews line, which is at 66.9% expected goals share and 71.1% actual goals share - pretty insane numbers really, so probably no all that fair to compare them to what is maybe the most dominant line in hockey.

There may be an internal option we could use to upgrade - in a very small sample the Mikheyev-Tavares-Nylander line did have a 60.3% expected goals share. This is doubly interesting because so far the Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase combo hasn't been very good in their tiny sample so far, with only a 35.5% expected goals share, and the Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase posted a 50% expected goals share in their small sample too.

Of course there's the fact that the Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall trio absolutely dominated in their brief time together - 79.4% expected goals share and 69.3% of actual goals share. In my mind this is a line i'd love to see tried again. If we did try that trio, though, that would require moving one of Kerfoot or Kase to the Spezza line.....BUT, it would give the interesting opportunity of making a Nylander-Tavares-Kase line, which we haven't tried yet, but could possibly work pretty well based on skillsets.

so yeah I wouldn't mind seeing something like

Bunting-Matthews-Marner 66.9xgf%, 71.1gf%
Nylander-Tavares-Kase ???
Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall 79.4xgf%, 69.3gf%
Kerfoot-Spezza-Simmonds ???

Though trading for a guy like Hertl to bump Kase back down or to center kerfoot/spezza/kase himself on a 3rd line would be obviously way better.