GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VII

[Nylanderthal]

I dunno, we'll agree to disagree. You guys think I'm nuts, I think you guys are nuts lol, call truce there and call it a night.

Bringing in a player who might score more himself but isn’t as good of a fit with Willy and JT would potentially drive down their numbers essentially creating a net negative.
If you want to have the conversation that the best course of action to improving the lineup when considering acquisition cost is getting another bonafide top 6 scoring forward as opposed to a D, then I’m here for it and honestly I agree with that.
Where you lose the plot is when you single out Kerfoot as the guy who has to go because of xyz. If there’s an upgrade to the top 9 it would be to push someone else farther down the depth chart. Kerfoot has too much value for THIS SEASON to the team. In the off-season it’s a whole other ballgame imo and lot of things would be on the table as far as I’m concerned.
Honestly I think the addition of an additional forward means they go to the 3 scoring line set up and use kampf on the 4th with Engvall in a shut down role.
Bunting Matthews Marner
Mik/trade JT Kase
Kerfoot/mik/trade Willy
Engvall Kampf Spezza
slide Spezza up in offensive opportunities slide Kase mik kerf down with Engvall and kampf in defensive situations.
Trade would be a guy like JT Miller, Pavelski, Hertl someone like that.
You can stack the lines and create pressure when you need a goal, you can spread out the talent ensuring there’s always an impact player on the ice. It gives the team a lot of different looks

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I demand a trade.....I have no trade sources atm but I request one for the name of Hfboards and all the armchair gms that are experts. Why? I demand lilly be back in the big leagues.

 

[Havoc]

We have two elite players on our second line. The most optimal route for our ES goals problem is another winger there that can finish and compliment them with more offensive awareness.

I agree with everything you're saying but it's blocking a very prime spot that can produce significantly more goals for us.

Kerfoot is still here on the 3rd line too. If you guys are so confident in his ES points, then the 3rd line will see a boost too.

While I'm not that big of a Kerfoot fan I will say he's had his best regular season so far (though has dipped lately) but has also been one of the best playoff performers on the team.

If anything the idea to improve ES scoring would be to get more out of the third and fourth lines.

You guys seem on the same page to me. If Kerfoot can remain productive at ES on the third line, and Leafs get some more goals out of the second line left wing, we all win here. What's the beef?

 

[Nylanderthal]

I demand a trade.....I have no trade sources atm but I request one for the name of Hfboards and all the armchair gms that are experts. Why? I demand lilly be back in the big leagues.

They gotta have something cooking, Timmy’s just starting to turn a corner in confidence and we’re seeing a more complete player. Can’t neuter that now

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Bringing in a player who might score more himself but isn’t as good of a fit with Willy and JT would potentially drive down their numbers essentially creating a net negative.
If you want to have the conversation that the best course of action to improving the lineup when considering opportunity cost is getting another bonafide top 6 scoring forward as opposed to a D, then I’m here for it and honestly I agree with that.
Where you lose the plot is when you single out Kerfoot as the guy who has to go because of xyz. If there’s an upgrade to the top 9 it would be to push someone else farther down the depth chart. Kerfoot has too much value for THIS SEASON to the team. In the off-season it’s a whole other ballgame imo and lot of things would be on the table as far as I’m concerned.
Honestly I think the addition of an additional forward means they go to the 3 scoring line set up and use kampf on the 4th with Engvall in a shut down role.
Bunting Matthews Marner
Mik/trade JT Kase
Kerfoot/mik/trade Willy
Engvall Kampf Spezza
slide Spezza up in offensive opportunities slide Kase mik kerf down with Engvall and kampf in defensive situations.
Trade would be a guy like JT Miller, Pavelski, Hertl someone like that.
You can stack the lines and create pressure when you need a goal, you can spread out the talent ensuring there’s always an impact player on the ice. It gives the team a lot of different looks

This works for me as long as the guy put at 2LW actually has a higher scoring rate than Kerfoot when it's put in practice.

The driving force behind singling out 2LW is we are currently 11th out of the 16 current playoff teams in even strength goals. The gap is really huge on some of the team we're guaranteed to face as well. It's really hard not to single out Kerfoot when he has 7 goals in the top 6. You know how sick JT-Nylander is, the right fit can go as high as 20-30.

 

[Fogelhund]

Imagine thinking the only real value is goals scored to rate a player.

 

[zeke]

This works for me as long as the guy put at 2LW actually has a higher scoring rate than Kerfoot when it's put in practice.

The driving force behind singling out 2LW is we are currently 11th out of the 16 current playoff teams in even strength goals. The gap is really huge on some of the team we're guaranteed to face as well. It's really hard not to single out Kerfoot when he has 7 goals in the top 6. You know how sick JT-Nylander is, the right fit can go as high as 20-30.

Leafs are 6th in even strength goals per game.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Leafs are 6th in even strength goals per game.

Yeah I know. Which makes them 3rd last out of Eastern playoff teams, the ones we'll actually be facing when it matters. Only ones they are better than are Rangers and Bruins.

If we want a cup we need to take this 2LW low goal total more seriously.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Yeah I know. Which makes them 3rd last out of Eastern playoff teams, the ones we'll actually be facing when it matters. Only ones they are better than are Rangers and Bruins.

If we want a cup we need to take this 2LW low goal total more seriously.

For the record, only Florida and Carolina are actually ahead in 5v5 goals per game. 4v4 and especially 3v3 mean nothing if you're just looking to the playoffs

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Imagine thinking the only real value is goals scored to rate a player.

Like I said, if you guys are so confident about Kerfoots ES production, then you should have no issue if he's helping get more juice out the 3rd line and someone more fit for 2LW is there instead.

I think you guys just need a scapegoat to be mad at tonight since there's no game on.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Like I said, if you guys are so confident about Kerfoots ES production, then you should have no issue if he's helping get more juice out the 3rd line and someone more fit for 2LW is there instead.

I think you guys just need a scapegoat to be mad at tonight since there's no game on.

We’re not the ones singling out a guy who’s on pace for 55+ 5V5 points. Like we’ve all said, if you want to add to the line up and push guys farther down out, fine there’s definitely a conversation to be had there. Kerfoot is not the problem. He creates plenty of extra offence for his linemates to make up for his lower goal totals. He’s also scored 19g in Colorado, and had what? 3 in 7 games last post season, he CAN finish, it’s just not what his role has been carved out to do on this team this year

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The gap is too large compared to our rivals. That's the problem. It has to be 2LW beside Jt and Nylander

7 goals there guys....come on.

It has been a rough patch for the entire line, but will making a trade fix it?

Nylander had his last ES goal 13 games ago (and only has 1 PP goal in that time too). He has taken over 30 ES shots. Tavares has 2 ES goals in that time, on 28 ES shots. Kerfoot is not a guy who really shoots on that line, which is probably by design. Nylander and Tavares are supposed to be our best shooters outside of Matthews. Right now, they are not playing like it, but Kerfoot does a great job at getting those guys the puck in shooting areas.

Before that cold stretch, those two were #2 and #3 in ES goals behind Matthews, had a shooting percentage more in line with expectation, and were an amazing line and had some games where they bailed out our top line (and an inconsistent bottom 6). That is probably why Keefe is keeping them together (on top of generating opportunities despite not scoring). Dropping Kerfoot from that line would be making a decision based on the last ~13 games and blaming him for struggles that likely fall more on Nylander and Tavares themselves, because Kerfoot has been consistently doing what has made that line an amazing line the whole year. It is Nylander and Tavares who are falling short.

I think the smart play is to change up the Simmonds spot who can give the lineup more flexibility. It is a spot that has been weak for most of the year, and if you can get a guy who can maybe step up higher in the lineup, then all the better. I don't think targeting a high-price 2LW is the move that makes sense.

 

[meefer]

Giroux still ticks a lot of boxes for me.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

For the record, only Florida and Carolina are actually ahead in 5v5 goals per game. 4v4 and especially 3v3 mean nothing if you're just looking to the playoffs

That's true 3v3 is a total waste for playoffs. 4v4 still happens so I won't throw that out. I guess they'll track it as we approach the trade deadline, especially if the line keeps struggling and they keep flip flopping Mik-Kerfoot there with no success. Kerfoots ice time in the 3rd period the other day was telling. His defence has been fine so I can't think of any other reason he went into the dog house. I'm just convinced we need another winger there. Doesn't even need to be a big name one. Another diamond in the rough like Bunting would do.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

It has been a rough patch for the entire line, but will making a trade fix it?

Nylander had his last ES goal 13 games ago (and only has 1 PP goal in that time too). He has taken over 30 ES shots. Tavares has 2 ES goals in that time, on 28 ES shots. Kerfoot is not a guy who really shoots on that line, which is probably by design. Nylander and Tavares are supposed to be our best shooters outside of Matthews. Right now, they are not playing like it, but Kerfoot does a great job at getting those guys the puck in shooting areas.

Before that cold stretch, those two were #2 and #3 in ES goals behind Matthews, had a shooting percentage more in line with expectation, and were an amazing line and had some games where they bailed out our top line (and an inconsistent bottom 6). That is probably why Keefe is keeping them together (on top of generating opportunities despite not scoring). Dropping Kerfoot from that line would be making a decision based on the last ~13 games and blaming him for struggles that likely fall more on Nylander and Tavares themselves, because Kerfoot has been consistently doing what has made that line an amazing line the whole year. It is Nylander and Tavares who are falling short.

I think the smart play is to change up the Simmonds spot who can give the lineup more flexibility. It is a spot that has been weak for most of the year, and if you can get a guy who can maybe step up higher in the lineup, then all the better. I don't think targeting a high-price 2LW is the move that makes sense.

I've been watching every second of every game. I'm just not seeing what you guys are seeing with Kerfoot lately. These passes he makes are wide open lanes with no pressure. On the tape yes, but the conditions need to be right. He can't shield and buy time for them to get open. Doesn't get loose pucks to keep the play alive. His cycle is a step behind theirs. He doesn't have top 6 traits. He's a versatile, excellent PK'ing winger who can hold it down in the top 6 when you find yourself in a pinch, but for a cup contender he's not a long term solution. The 7 goals would be fine if he could at least make more space for them. Teams are deep into mid-season form now. If Kerfoot peaked it's not going to get better. Eventually teams will overload JT and Nylander even more and let Kerfoot do whatever he wants because he's not a threat by himself.

I'm fair though. If I'm wrong as the next few weeks play out, I'll own it and back off.

 

[Shooter2x]

This guy just took on like 7 guys by himself. Better hope Kerfoot comes through for you guys

 

[TML Dynasty]

So Kerfoot is the Bunting on the 2nd line.....meant for fast forecheck and to muck it up in the dirty areas. Relying on point totals for that role doesn't seem right. However playing on the wing of JT and WN should increase the points of even a journeyman.

Kerfoot steps up in the playoffs which is a need for sure.

The JT line isnt doing as well as I had hoped though so perhaps changing the LW chemistry is the way to go.

I believe all these points but no idea how to feel about it lol. Upgrading the 2LW spot without trading Kerfoot seems impossible, and Id perfer not to lose him for this run.

All that said I guess I focus on D for the big move......its gotta help our struggling Goalie.

 

[Bluelines]

Lmao, the fact you think Chara would be a good add is just…. Lmao

View attachment 507889

You clearly you rely a little too much on numbers, without applying context to those numbers. He's on a bad team, his numbers are bad... oh... what a surprise no one could have ever predicted that. If you take my post in the context that Chara would replace Holl or Lilly, which is what I said in the original post, in this case if we got Manson, Manson replaces Holl and Chara replaces Lily, yeah Chara is an upgrade over Lily.

 

[Bluelines]

Why not 8?

Why not zero?

 

[Bluelines]

Dubas would have to do some fancy dancing to get 2 forwards and 2 dmen by the TDL. I'd settle for a top 4 dman who can play with Muzzin and a heavier LWer who can play with JT and let the chips fall where they might.

Yep agreed , it would be tough to add four players but Holl, Dermot and Ritchie are all on the block and if we can move them, that lift becomes a little easier. Rumors are floating around that Kerfoot is on the block too. After a pretty sold year Kerfoott might be gone at the TDL.

 

[Cherry Picker]

Kerfoot is a complete passenger on his line. He doesn’t hit, he’s weak on the boards and he doesn’t cash in the chances created by Willy and Tavares. The argument that he was “good in the playoffs” is completely false and Nylander carried him around that whole series last year.

Move this clown for someone that can bury chances.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Let's not kid ourselves.
L2 needs someone to crash, bang and open up ice. Kerfoot is trying hard up there, but it's going to be glaring in the playoffs - if we keep it the same.

 

[ToneDog]

Let's not kid ourselves.
L2 needs someone to crash, bang and open up ice. Kerfoot is trying hard up there, but it's going to be glaring in the playoffs - if we keep it the same.

Kerfoot is on line #2 by default because #20 could not do it. One year later we might be looking for another top 6 LWer who can do what Nick Foligno could once do.

 

[Dekes For Days]

we've seen in the playoffs that our stars get abused in front of the net or can't even get to it. Our net? Easy to be there, no price to be paid

That's not remotely close to what we've seen in the playoffs...

 

[The Podium]

You clearly you rely a little too much on numbers, without applying context to those numbers. He's on a bad team, his numbers are bad... oh... what a surprise no one could have ever predicted that. If you take my post in the context that Chara would replace Holl or Lilly, which is what I said in the original post, in this case if we got Manson, Manson replaces Holl and Chara replaces Lily, yeah Chara is an upgrade over Lily.

You haven’t been watching Chara if you think Chara is an upgrade on Lily. Dude may literally be the worst D in the league this season. He’s way to slow at this point in his career. His only redeeming quality is that he can still clear the net front, but he is constantly getting beat on transition, can’t hold the offensive zone and is too slow to even make hits anymore. Chara is cooked. Might be a good #8 add for leadership but he can’t be trusted for any meaningful minutes.