GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VI

[McSnypsky]

We talked about a young player who just playing his second season his career and who are just happy to get a shot to play...

and why not choose the Leafs? plus we have know idea what this guy really feels or wants, but his agent and Dubas could have a chat to see if there is any alignment. For sure a young player is not going to ask for a trade but that doesn't mean he's just happy to be there. Plus if Chiarelli does take over, still TBD, who knows what will happen!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Every +1 in a +/- is a goal too, but we don't place nearly as much value on +/- as we do on goals scored, right?

I think his point is a valid one - Kerfoot is a complementary guy, not a line driver. If his linemates aren't firing, he's not going to put up numbers either.

This in contrast to a guy like JT Miller, who does seem like a line-driver and can contribute even when his linemates aren't firing on all cylinders.

JT Miller has put up 39 ES goals in 166 VAN games.
Kerfoot has put up 21 ES goals in 163 TOR games.

A few other things to keep in mind though: Miller has played 400 more ES minutes than Kerfoot, and it has always been in a pure offensive role. Kerfoot has spent a fair bit of time with Tavares/Nylander/etc., but he has also spent a fair bit of time on a 3rd line which was more defensively oriented for a fair bit of time here.

Miller also PK's, but Kerfoot has been much better than him at it. So advantage Kerfoot in that regard. Kerfoot has also put up much better assist totals than Miller. Once again, this may be teammates, but Miller has only 4 more assists in 400 more ES minutes in VAN.

If Kerfoot played the same number of ES minutes as Miller, maintaining the same rates he currently has, he would have 7 more assists than Miller and only 13 fewer ES goals than Miller... Disregarding the fact that he would do so with a ~50% OZS% while Miller would have had over 57%.

Miller is a better goal scorer, and he has played with worse teammates, but does he get Marner minutes in Toronto like he is getting in Vancouver? I would say almost certainly he does not. He probably gets the same amount of minutes as Kerfoot but with some PP time added on.

So the main value will be what Miller can add as a PP forward instead of Kase/Mikheyev. Otherwise, we are downgrading assists and PK/defensive ability to add a guy who, as an alleged line driving scorer, adds maybe 10 more ES goals per year over a complimentary two-way playmaker like Kerfoot while making 1.75 mill more per year.

Not to mention that if we get NYR/TBL Miller, when he was playing in a role that resembles the one he would get here, I am not sure he is even worth the additional cap and the ridiculous packages people are throwing around to get him.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Would Giordano be able to play the right side?

I keep thinking that the guy we're not talking about enough is Giordano. He's not the crease-clearer we need, but he's a hell of a reliable dman who is playing well over 20 min/game on the Kraken and seems to be holding up quite well. Toronto boy, hell of a leader. Instant chemistry with Brodie if we choose to go that way, but I think he can play with Muzzin too.

Would be a Glen Wesley-type of acquisition, if folks remember him. Glen was real good for us for the brief time he was here.

Giordano has not played RD for a very long time, if ever.

I think I would get behind Justin Braun, as @Kiwi and others have suggested, before Giordano. Braun is not really a skill upgrade, but he brings more experience than Liljegren and he should not cost more than a 3rd, which is the absolute most we should be spending on any kind of rental.

 

[Magic Man]

Why should chicago trade hagel

-rebuild...we talk about a 23years old player...
-Salary??? 1.5M its pretty low and rfa
-Not a good player for the team? If hes a kind of bunting. Hes the type of player every team want.

The only reason would be if they overpay for him, so why toronto should overpay for a guy like hagel?

It sounds like Strome is available and he is 24 and an RFA at the end of his deal with more proven so far than Hagel. He was also a 3rd overall pick. May just be wishful thinking, but they may be a bit more open for business than usual in Chicago.

Nick Ritchie (replacement LW) + Roni Hirvonen (B+ prospect) + 2023 2nd rd. pick for Brandon Hagel

Travis Dermott (replacement D) + Nick Abruzzese (B+ prospect) + 2022 2nd rd. pick for Scott Mayfield

Something along those lines at the deadline would work for me.

 

[123offtheglass]

I keep thinking that the guy we're not talking about enough is Giordano. He's not the crease-clearer we need, but he's a hell of a reliable dman who is playing well over 20 min/game on the Kraken and seems to be holding up quite well. Toronto boy, hell of a leader. Instant chemistry with Brodie if we choose to go that way, but I think he can play with Muzzin too.

Would be a Glen Wesley-type of acquisition, if folks remember him. Glen was real good for us for the brief time he was here.

Saw a tweet today which suggested this, I agree; definitely a guy who many slept on. He's the type of D they should be after & could be a fit really on any pair with anyone, even on the right side. He checks every box really, has a strong point shot as well.

He's a rental I'd be okay with paying more for, he's from Toronto late in his career without a cup, he could very well resign. Double retention with Dermott or Ritchie going the other way would work cap-wise.

 

[123offtheglass]

Giordano has not played RD for a very long time, if ever.

He has played some right side this season.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Brenden Dillon anyone

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It sounds like Strome is available and he is 24 and an RFA at the end of his deal with more proven so far than Hagel. He was also a 3rd overall pick. May just be wishful thinking, but they may be a bit more open for business than usual in Chicago.

I would take Strome as a reclamation project, but I wouldn't give up anything major for him. Especially since he is effectively a rental like Bennett... He is not worth that 3.6 mill QO. In fact, I would probably look at him more as a UFA TBH.

But I will play along, and include De Haan in there too since we are apparently looking at him (even though I don't think he is any kind of real upgrade).


C/LW Dylan Strome (50% retained) - 1.5 mill
LD/RD Calvin De Haan (50% retained) - 2.275 mill


LW Nick Ritchie - 2.5 mill
LD/RD Travis Dermott - 1.5 mill
C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
2nd round pick 2022 (TOR)

Personally, I easily turn that down from the Leafs' perspective, but I probably would say 'no' if I was offered less from Chicago's perspective.

 

[Kurtz]

JT Miller has put up 39 ES goals in 166 VAN games.
Kerfoot has put up 21 ES goals in 163 TOR games.

A few other things to keep in mind though: Miller has played 400 more ES minutes than Kerfoot, and it has always been in a pure offensive role. Kerfoot has spent a fair bit of time with Tavares/Nylander/etc., but he has also spent a fair bit of time on a 3rd line which was more defensively oriented for a fair bit of time here.

Miller also PK's, but Kerfoot has been much better than him at it. So advantage Kerfoot in that regard. Kerfoot has also put up much better assist totals than Miller. Once again, this may be teammates, but Miller has only 4 more assists in 400 more ES minutes in VAN.

If Kerfoot played the same number of ES minutes as Miller, maintaining the same rates he currently has, he would have 7 more assists than Miller and only 13 fewer ES goals than Miller... Disregarding the fact that he would do so with a ~50% OZS% while Miller would have had over 57%.

Miller is a better goal scorer, and he has played with worse teammates, but does he get Marner minutes in Toronto like he is getting in Vancouver? I would say almost certainly he does not. He probably gets the same amount of minutes as Kerfoot but with some PP time added on.

So the main value will be what Miller can add as a PP forward instead of Kase/Mikheyev. Otherwise, we are downgrading assists and PK/defensive ability to add a guy who, as an alleged line driving scorer, adds maybe 10 more ES goals per year over a complimentary two-way playmaker like Kerfoot while making 1.75 mill more per year.

Not to mention that if we get NYR/TBL Miller, when he was playing in a role that resembles the one he would get here, I am not sure he is even worth the additional cap and the ridiculous packages people are throwing around to get him.

I don't know who would be better on the PK, other than to say that imo Kerf is at best, our 4th most important pk forward behind Kampf, Mitch and Mickey. And we have 40 more goals than Vancouver this year - I think it's fair to say that Miller's assist totals would be quite a bit higher playing with JT and Nylander. Consider that JT has put up higher assist totals than Kerfoot every year that Kerfoot has been in the NHL, despite Kerfoot generally playing with better linemates (he played on a line with Nate in Colorado).

You've also neglected the physical element that Miller would bring, that Kerfoot does not. I also wouldn't nescessarily say Kerfoot is a better defensive player on the whole. Kerf's defensive metrics are quite underwhelming and he's nothing special there in the less tangible eye-test, imo.

But all that aside...10 extra ES goals per year out of one position is a pretty huge improvement, let's not diminish the impact of that.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He has played some right side this season.

I will play along with this too... Although I would make sure he can actually play RD before making this deal.


LD/RD Mark Giordano (50% retained) - 3.325 mill
C/LW Riley Sheahan - 850k


LW Nick Ritchie - 2.5 mill
LD Travis Dermott - 1.5 mill
2nd round pick 2022 (TOR)

I am using Taylor Hall as the comparable, and Seattle arguably gets more value out of this than BUF got out of Hall.

Not a huge fan of giving up Dermott + 2nd for a pair of rentals personally, but maybe Gio is willing to come back to be a Spezza for us next year?

 

[ACC1224]

I will play along with this too... Although I would make sure he can actually play RD before making this deal.


LD/RD Mark Giordano (50% retained) - 3.325 mill
C/LW Riley Sheahan - 850k

:kraken
LW Nick Ritchie - 2.5 mill
LD Travis Dermott - 1.5 mill
2nd round pick 2022 (TOR)

I am using Taylor Hall as the comparable, and Seattle arguably gets more value out of this than BUF got out of Hall.

Not a huge fan of giving up Dermott + 2nd for a pair of rentals personally, but maybe Gio is willing to come back to be a Spezza for us next year?

He has a house here so I would think he would be open to that.
I'd replace Dermott with Holl though.

 

[HomelessPepper]

If the Leafs are opening up their wallets for a dman, I'd much rather they spend the extra and bring in Chychrun.

 

[Kurtz]

Giordano has not played RD for a very long time, if ever.

I think I would get behind Justin Braun, as @Kiwi and others have suggested, before Giordano. Braun is not really a skill upgrade, but he brings more experience than Liljegren and he should not cost more than a 3rd, which is the absolute most we should be spending on any kind of rental.

Giordano is on the first-D pairing with Oleksiak, who is a LHD. That pairing has been excellent for the Kraken: 54% xGoals% on a last place team is very very impressive.

 

[Kurtz]

I will play along with this too... Although I would make sure he can actually play RD before making this deal.


LD/RD Mark Giordano (50% retained) - 3.325 mill
C/LW Riley Sheahan - 850k

:kraken
LW Nick Ritchie - 2.5 mill
LD Travis Dermott - 1.5 mill
2nd round pick 2022 (TOR)

I am using Taylor Hall as the comparable, and Seattle arguably gets more value out of this than BUF got out of Hall.

Not a huge fan of giving up Dermott + 2nd for a pair of rentals personally, but maybe Gio is willing to come back to be a Spezza for us next year?

If we're getting 50% retention and also getting them to swallow Ritchie's deal I think it'll cost us a 1st. I think I'd pay that price. Maybe we can even bring Giordano back next year on a Spezza special.

 

[LeafChief]

I would take Strome as a reclamation project, but I wouldn't give up anything major for him. Especially since he is effectively a rental like Bennett... He is not worth that 3.6 mill QO. In fact, I would probably look at him more as a UFA TBH.

But I will play along, and include De Haan in there too since we are apparently looking at him (even though I don't think he is any kind of real upgrade).


C/LW Dylan Strome (50% retained) - 1.5 mill
LD/RD Calvin De Haan (50% retained) - 2.275 mill


LW Nick Ritchie - 2.5 mill
LD/RD Travis Dermott - 1.5 mill
C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
2nd round pick 2022 (TOR)

Personally, I easily turn that down from the Leafs' perspective, but I probably would say 'no' if I was offered less from Chicago's perspective.

I mean - I'd probably do it. I'd like to try to get Strome re-signed at 1.5 or less as well. I think he still has a lot to give as a reclamation project.

 

[thusk]

It sounds like Strome is available and he is 24 and an RFA at the end of his deal with more proven so far than Hagel. He was also a 3rd overall pick. May just be wishful thinking, but they may be a bit more open for business than usual in Chicago.

Nick Ritchie (replacement LW) + Roni Hirvonen (B+ prospect) + 2023 2nd rd. pick for Brandon Hagel

Travis Dermott (replacement D) + Nick Abruzzese (B+ prospect) + 2022 2nd rd. pick for Scott Mayfield

Something along those lines at the deadline would work for me.

Hawks just dont trust strome. Strome is really close of a galchenyuk type of player. Its not really a good exemple

 

[aingefan]

I could get behind a retained Miller pushing Kerf down and Simmonds to 13 man.
I’m overly optimistic about the future leafs tho, so I’m sure the cost would make me queasy.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't know who would be better on the PK, other than to say that imo Kerf is at best, our 4th most important pk forward behind Kampf, Mitch and Mickey. And we have 40 more goals than Vancouver this year - I think it's fair to say that Miller's assist totals would be quite a bit higher playing with JT and Nylander. Consider that JT has put up higher assist totals than Kerfoot every year that Kerfoot has been in the NHL, despite Kerfoot generally playing with better linemates (he played on a line with Nate in Colorado).

You've also neglected the physical element that Miller would bring, that Kerfoot does not. I also wouldn't nescessarily say Kerfoot is a better defensive player on the whole. Kerf's defensive metrics are quite underwhelming and he's nothing special there in the less tangible eye-test, imo.

But all that aside...10 extra ES goals per year out of one position is a pretty huge improvement, let's not diminish the impact of that.

Kerfoot has not played with those kinds of line mates full time, and I was not looking at his Colorado time at all (just like I did not look at Miller before VAN, when he produced far less).

But lets look at linemates: J.T. Miller played 80% of his ES ice time in VAN with at least one of Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson, or Brock Boeser. Maybe not Tavares/Nylander level, but that is legit talent. Alex Kerfoot played almost 50% of his ES ice time in Toronto without any of Matthews, Marner, Tavares, or Nylander (with that entire time being in a defensive role), and he has rarely played with Matthews or Marner.

We also don't know if he would actually maintain his rates with less playing time, even if he has better linemates. He is not the focal point of our offense or even his line.

Kerfoot is also most certainly a better defensive player than Miller. If Kerfoot's metrics are "nothing special", then Miller's are plain bad.

Miller is a better player than Kerfoot, but we are talking about adding a top prospect + 1st and more on top of Kerfoot just to get him... And quite frankly, he is not that much better than Kerfoot.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If we're getting 50% retention and also getting them to swallow Ritchie's deal I think it'll cost us a 1st. I think I'd pay that price. Maybe we can even bring Giordano back next year on a Spezza special.

50% retention is the cost of doing business. They are not moving Gio for anything if they are not retaining a significant portion of his 6.75 mill cap hit... Especially when he is not worth anywhere near that based on his current play.

The difference between Bjork and Dermott + Sheahan and Lazar more than covers taking on Ritchie, and it is already generous enough that we pay anything to dump Ritchie and that we value Giordano like he is Hall. If they think Gio is like Foligno or Savard, then by all means they can go to another team and get that return from them. I am more than happy to not do anything at the TDL, and I am certainly not moving a 1st to acquire rentals.

 

[Kurtz]

Kerfoot is also most certainly a better defensive player than Miller. If Kerfoot's metrics are "nothing special", then Miller's are plain bad.

Miller is a better player than Kerfoot, but we are talking about adding a top prospect + 1st and more on top of Kerfoot just to get him... And quite frankly, he is not that much better than Kerfoot.

I think Miller is miles better than Kerfoot all around, and it's not particularly close. More goals, more assists, far more hits, much, much better on the draw, much better corsi/fenwick (although with more offensive starts), similar giveaway/takeaway ratio. Miller does play more minutes, but he merits that.


What metrics are you referring to that make Miller look plain bad?

 

[Menzinger]

My issue with Kerfoot and why Leafs might need a 2LW still:

Last 2 series was a finishing problem.

Kerfoot is reverse Mangiapane. Instead of 20 goals for every 5 assists, Kerfoot is 5 goals for every 20 assists.

Nylander and JT goal paces have not received a spike from Kerfoots great season. Nylander has paced this before in 2020. Points wise this great season is being carried by assists (Kerfoot). So the onus is still on Nylander and JT to carry the scoring there, which is zero net gain on the playoff scoreboard.

Bunting and Hyman seem like a wash at this point (amazing feat for Bunting) and with Kerfoot not being dependable for goals, how did we work on our finishing issues? Bunting has no playoff experience to immediately claim he will score more than Hyman in the playoffs guaranteed.

If you want to say, well, Tavares was injured, so he's like an addition, you can reference Jackets series, which is still relevant to today.


I'm not sold on Kerfoot at 2LW. He's a utility guy who can step up in need but not really a specialist in anything. I would feel more stable if we had a 20/20 guy there instead. If there is one available or one they predict can score at Buntings pace, we should pull the trigger.


Give it a thought. It's not a Kerfoot bashing post. Just a post that prioritizes the logo on the jersey.

Though two playoffs worth of usage, Kerfoot essentially produced at a 2nd line rate. Now we can go back on forth on how much he drives play vs just has chemistry with stars like Nylander, but regardless is able to deliver that level of production while also doing stuff like the PK.

I just have trouble justifying in my mind spending prime assets to upgrade him or anyone in the top 9 given how things have been this season..

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think Miller is miles better than Kerfoot all around, and it's not particularly close. More goals, more assists, far more hits, much, much better on the draw, much better corsi/fenwick (although with more offensive starts), similar giveaway/takeaway ratio. Miller does play more minutes, but he merits that.


What metrics are you referring to that make Miller look plain bad?

Higher CA/60, HDCA/60, HDGA/60, GA/60, xGA/60... I mean pretty much any defensive metric there is, Miller ranks worse... And he starts in the offensive zone a lot more often too.

Miller has better offensive Corsi numbers and such, but the difference is smaller than the superiority of Kerfoot's defensive numbers over him; which is why Kerfoot's %'s rank higher across the board too.

His value over Kerfoot is goal scoring. Kerfoot is better with assists. It is nice that Miller throws hits around and can take draws, but physicality is not a major part of Miller's game (he is very inconsistent with his physical engagement; always has been) and he is going to be a winger here unless there are injuries. But the main reason why the Leafs would drop Kerfoot, and the areas in which he is superior than Miller, and add Miller is that Miller can score more goals.

Personally, I am not taking the difference of Miller vs. Kerfoot for the price of a top prospect + 1st + whatever else it costs to get him. Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander work very well together, and Kerfoot's cap cost makes a lot more sense for a team that already spends almost half their cap on 4 forwards.

 

[Kiwi]

Though two playoffs worth of usage, Kerfoot essentially produced at a 2nd line rate. Now we can go back on forth on how much he drives play vs just has chemistry with stars like Nylander, but regardless is able to deliver that level of production while also doing stuff like the PK.

I just have trouble justifying in my mind spending prime assets to upgrade him or anyone in the top 9 given how things have been this season..

Not to mention the upheaval in the dressing room

The team is going bloody well and taking guys out of the room and adding others has major risk attached to it

Add but don't subtract anything that could be useful in a playoff round and Kerfoot could be very useful

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hawks just dont trust strome. Strome is really close of a galchenyuk type of player. Its not really a good exemple

Apparently he is doing much better for them recently.

 

[ER89]

I don't see how what happened in the previous years has any bearing on this year.
Looks like they've assembled some pretty good offensive depth. If Holl is run out on the 2nd pair, the team is going no where.

Well the main players are the same.