GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VI

[The Podium]

I dont care what the data says.

“Why should I use all the information available to me when I, as an armchair GM, can trust my biased untrained eyes to evaluate”

 

[fahad203]

“Why should I use all the information available to me when I, as an armchair GM, can trust my biased untrained eyes to evaluate”

Then why even need a gm watch games. Just run the season from an excel sheet

Why even need a coach or scouts. All the data are available online anyways


All the information also includes common sense.

 

[McSnypsky]

Why should chicago trade hagel

-rebuild...we talk about a 23years old player...
-Salary??? 1.5M its pretty low and rfa
-Not a good player for the team? If hes a kind of bunting. Hes the type of player every team want.

The only reason would be if they overpay for him, so why toronto should overpay for a guy like hagel?

With everything going on off the ice in Chicago, I'd go in there and try to pick there bones, there are probably some players that are unhappy being there, so why not give it a shot?

 

[MapleLeafs94]

Our team is playing fantastic right now, don't want to spend big just to make it look like we did something and try to break the first round curse. Either go big or go home.

The way I see it a upgrade on Holl would be the most pressing issue. I'm talking a clear upgrade though, and a lot of names being hurled around here just aren't that. Manson? I like his play style but I don't think he's going to be some difference maker rather than just sticking with Holl. If you can get him cheap then sure but otherwise just push for Lindholm if the Ducks are sellers.

If a big upgrade on D is unobtainable then I'd rather just get another forward. Wouldn't be hard or very expensive to find someone better than Simmonds or Ritchie for example. Engvall too but he has been playing very well as of late however, see how that plays out over the season and into the playoffs though.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Then why even need a gm watch games. Just run the season from an excel sheet

Why even need a coach or scouts. All the data are available online anyways


All the information also includes common sense.

common sense would tell you that you can't just arbitrarily decide how good a player is and ignore everything you see/hear about their actual performance

 

[The Podium]

Then why even need a gm watch games. Just run the season from an excel sheet

Why even need a coach or scouts. All the data are available online anyways


All the information also includes common sense.

It’s not about replacing the eye test, it’s to quantify what the eye test is telling you. Analytics have to be used in combination with what you are seeing. Obviously their are outliers where players perform differently than their analytics, but publicly available analytics have evolved to be very useful. To dismiss them completely is ridiculous.

We’re are humans with inherent biases, so when a player like Holl performs quietly well 90% of the time it isn’t noticeable. As a 4/5 D he is going to have his flaws, but since the majority of his game is quiet the flaws become very noticeable. The fact is Holl has been a good, but not great, #4 D, both according to the analytics and the eye test.

Does he need to be upgraded? Maybe, we’d certainly be a better team with him in the #5 position. Is he a problem? Absolutely not.

 

[fahad203]

common sense would tell you that you can't just arbitrarily decide how good a player is and ignore everything you see/hear about their actual performance

I watch leafs and other teams as well. He's trash. Simple as that. He cannot be relied upon in important games

Why would anything be arbitrary. He clearly sucks. I don't need data to tell me that

For 90 years of this game people actually made decisions by watching the game and evaluating players. Excel sheets and corsi are a new concept

Common sense should supersed any other tool. And common sense will tell you in a 7 game series against panthers Justin Holl will be absolutely destroyed in every aspect what we call hockey

 

[thusk]

With everything going on off the ice in Chicago, I'd go in there and try to pick there bones, there are probably some players that are unhappy being there, so why not give it a shot?

We talked about a young player who just playing his second season his career and who are just happy to get a shot to play...

 

[Avilaj07]

For forwards, our target should be J.T Miller. That's it, that's the list.

Adding him in place of Kerfoot in our top 6 will solve this teams issue when it comes to scoring come playoff time.

For defenseman, I'm looking at Connor Murphy in Chicago, and Carson Soucy. I think either would make a great partner for Muzzin/Sandin on our 2nd pair.

 

[fahad203]

It’s not about replacing the eye test, it’s to quantify what the eye test is telling you. Analytics have to be used in combination with what you are seeing. Obviously their are outliers where players perform differently than their analytics, but publicly available analytics have evolved to be very useful. To dismiss them completely is ridiculous.

We’re are humans with inherent biases, so when a player like Holl performs quietly well 90% of the time it isn’t noticeable. As a 4/5 D he is going to have his flaws, but since the majority of his game is quiet the flaws become very noticeable. The fact is Holl has been a good, but not great, #4 D, both according to the analytics and the eye test.

Does he need to be upgraded? Maybe, we’d certainly be a better team with him in the #5 position. Is he a problem? Absolutely not.

That's fair. On 5th or 6th. But as of today he's 4th.

Tampa Florida doesn't have a holl top 4
Maybe 6th or 7th

And if they did its because they got a player lose Hedman

 

[The Podium]

I watch leafs and other teams as well. He's trash. Simple as that. He cannot be relied upon in important games

Why would anything be arbitrary. He clearly sucks. I don't need data to tell me that

For 90 years of this game people actually made decisions by watching the game and evaluating players. Excel sheets and corsi are a new concept

Common sense should supersed any other tool. And common sense will tell you in a 7 game series against panthers Justin Holl will be absolutely destroyed in every aspect what we call hockey

According to what? Your opinion? You’re not even a GM or a scout, so even if you believe what you are saying you aren’t the one qualified to make that call.

 

[fahad203]

According to what? Your opinion? You’re not even a GM or a scout, so even if you believe what you are saying you aren’t the one qualified to make that call.

Then why are even here debating or posting on forums

I mean nobody here is qualified to make any call

 

[The Podium]

That's fair. On 5th or 6th. But as of today he's 4th.

Tampa Florida doesn't have a holl top 4
Maybe 6th or 7th

And if they did its because they got a player lose Hedman

Floridas second pair is Forsling and Gudas, in fact their entire 3-6 is at Holls level or worse.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Consider that Nucks already have Garland, I don’t think they want another undersized top 6 esp if the trade is for Miller

They’re also near the bottom in offensive production so a guy who has scored goals at a rate only few others have coming up would be attractive.
I’m not opposed to offering one of the other top prospects from our ranks if they’re not big on Robertson.

 

[Andrewcoursol]

Considering no team wanted Ritchie for free, it would have to be a significant add because the way I see it Dermott + Ritchie gets you less than Dermott.

true, or not far off, always hope that a team really values dermott pretty high in order to get something, maybe arizona takes ritchie in order to reach the salary cap floor, but they avoided him when he was free to take.

 

[fahad203]

Floridas second pair is Forsling and Gudas, in fact their entire 3-6 is at Holls level or worse.

Gudas is on their 3rd pair and he's there for his physicality. Montour and froslin is their 2nd paid and I don't think you watch Forslin play

 

[The Podium]

Gudas is on their 3rd pair and he's there for his physicality. Montour and froslin is their 2nd paid and I don't think you watch Forslin play

I don’t know what games you are watching but their second pair is Forsling - Gudas

I have watched Forsling play, he’s essentially their Sandin

 

[DraftSchmaft]

My issue with Kerfoot and why Leafs might need a 2LW still:

Last 2 series was a finishing problem.

Kerfoot is reverse Mangiapane. Instead of 20 goals for every 5 assists, Kerfoot is 5 goals for every 20 assists.

Nylander and JT goal paces have not received a spike from Kerfoots great season. Nylander has paced this before in 2020. Points wise this great season is being carried by assists (Kerfoot). So the onus is still on Nylander and JT to carry the scoring there, which is zero net gain on the playoff scoreboard.

Bunting and Hyman seem like a wash at this point (amazing feat for Bunting) and with Kerfoot not being dependable for goals, how did we work on our finishing issues? Bunting has no playoff experience to immediately claim he will score more than Hyman in the playoffs guaranteed.

If you want to say, well, Tavares was injured, so he's like an addition, you can reference Jackets series, which is still relevant to today.


I'm not sold on Kerfoot at 2LW. He's a utility guy who can step up in need but not really a specialist in anything. I would feel more stable if we had a 20/20 guy there instead. If there is one available or one they predict can score at Buntings pace, we should pull the trigger.


Give it a thought. It's not a Kerfoot bashing post. Just a post that prioritizes the logo on the jersey.

 

[The Podium]

My issue with Kerfoot and why Leafs might need a 2LW still:

Last 2 series was a finishing problem.

Kerfoot is reverse Mangiapane. Instead of 20 goals for every 5 assists, Kerfoot is 5 goals for every 20 assists.

Nylander and JT goal paces have not received a spike from Kerfoots great season. Nylander has paced this before in 2020. Points wise this great season is being carried by assists. So the onus is still on Nylander and JT to carry the scoring there, which is zero net gain on the playoff scoreboard.

Bunting and Hyman seem like a wash at this point (amazing feat for Bunting) and with Kerfoot not being dependable for goals, how did we work on our finishing issues? Bunting has no playoff experience to immediately claim he will score more than Hyman in the playoffs guaranteed.

If you want to say, well, Tavares was injured, so he's like an addition, you can reference Jackets series, which is still relevant to today.


I'm not sold on Kerfoot at 2LW. He's a utility guy who can step up in need but not really a specialist in anything. I would feel more stable if we had a 20/20 guy there instead. If there is one available or one they predict can score at Buntings pace, we should pull the trigger.


Give it a thought. It's not a Kerfoot bashing post. Just a post that prioritizes the logo on the jersey.

The same Kerfoot who had 6 points in 7 games last playoffs playing C without JT? That’s the guy you’re worried will show up in the playoffs?

 

[DraftSchmaft]

The same Kerfoot who had 6 points in 7 games last playoffs playing C without JT? That’s the guy you’re worried will show up in the playoffs?

Last 2 series was a finishing problem.

Kerfoot is reverse Mangiapane. Instead of 20 goals for every 5 assists, Kerfoot is 5 goals for every 20 assists.

________________

Your reply is a great example why having discussions are impossible here. Maybe understand the point next time. How does Kerfoot help the last 2 losses if he doesn't score? The onus is still on the regulars to do it all. Upgrade point is relative to mimicking Jackets and Habs series. Does replacing Kerfoot with a 20/20 guy help us win a series where we replicate the performance against habs and jackets with similar scores and outcomes? If the answer is yes then we didn't upgrade anything with Kerfoot as 2LW. Simple.

Those 6 points are carried by 5 assists. Thanks for adding to my point.


*not replacing kerfoot, i meant replacing him on 2LW

 

[The Podium]

Last 2 series was a finishing problem.

Kerfoot is reverse Mangiapane. Instead of 20 goals for every 5 assists, Kerfoot is 5 goals for every 20 assists.

________________

Your reply is a great example why having discussions are impossible here. Maybe understand the point next time. How does Kerfoot help the last 2 losses if he doesn't score? The onus is still on the regulars to do it all. Upgrade point is relative to mimicking Jackets and Habs series. Does replacing Kerfoot with a 20/20 guy help us win a series where we replicate the performance against habs and jackets with similar scores and outcomes? If the answer is yes then we didn't upgrade anything with Kerfoot as 2LW. Simple.

Those 6 points are carried by 5 assists. Thanks for adding to my point.


*not replacing kerfoot, i meant replacing him on 2LW

But at the end of every assist is a goal

Does Nylander get his 5 goals without Kerfoots 5 assists?

At the end of the day, Matthews, Tavares and Marner combining for 1 goal is the root of the scoring problem

 

[Kurtz]

But at the end of every assist is a goal

Does Nylander get his 5 goals without Kerfoots 5 assists?

At the end of the day, Matthews, Tavares and Marner combining for 1 goal is the root of the scoring problem

Every +1 in a +/- is a goal too, but we don't place nearly as much value on +/- as we do on goals scored, right?

I think his point is a valid one - Kerfoot is a complementary guy, not a line driver. If his linemates aren't firing, he's not going to put up numbers either.

This in contrast to a guy like JT Miller, who does seem like a line-driver and can contribute even when his linemates aren't firing on all cylinders.

 

[Kurtz]

I keep thinking that the guy we're not talking about enough is Giordano. He's not the crease-clearer we need, but he's a hell of a reliable dman who is playing well over 20 min/game on the Kraken and seems to be holding up quite well. Toronto boy, hell of a leader. Instant chemistry with Brodie if we choose to go that way, but I think he can play with Muzzin too.

Would be a Glen Wesley-type of acquisition, if folks remember him. Glen was real good for us for the brief time he was here.

 

[ACC1224]

I keep thinking that the guy we're not talking about enough is Giordano. He's not the crease-clearer we need, but he's a hell of a reliable dman who is playing well over 20 min/game on the Kraken and seems to be holding up quite well. Toronto boy, hell of a leader. Instant chemistry with Brodie if we choose to go that way, but I think he can play with Muzzin too.

Would be an excellent pickup, love to see it.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Would Giordano be able to play the right side?