GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART V

[Scion]

I don't see that problem at all.

They are getting a pretty normal progression - getting their feet wet on the bottom pair and then gradually getting increased duty as the need arises.

There was maybe a bit of delay on both of them thanks to the weirdness and cap/roster crunch of the last two covid years, but that's it. Even then, at 21 and 22 yrs old and just starting to break into top-4 duty that's a very normal progression anyways.

as for the play of muzz-holl and sandin-lilly this year being worrisome for some reason - that's pretty crazy, given that the Leafs are one of the best defensive teams in the league. the idea that our dcorps is something to fret over is deeply weird when they're in fact a bigtime strength.

The Leafs defense is slightly above middle of the pack by expected goal metrics. The raw goals against totals have been better than that due to luck and goaltending, but the Leafs are certainly not one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.

 

[X66]

Tampa's 2nd defensive pairing is McDonagh - Sergachev.

Vegas' 2nd pairing is Shea Theodore - Whitecloud.

St. Louis' 2nd pairing is Krug - Faulk.

Be like them.

I'm all in favour for improving the back end, but this year the Leafs have actually played better defence than most of high powered offence teams. Tampa has been slightly better defensively, but we have the big edge on offence 5 on 5 and on the PP.

The biggest difference maker for Tampa is that they have a game breaking goalie, people don't want to hear it but they're not that much different than the Leafs outside of that. Even last year when Campbell was great, that was the 5 straight series we had the 2nd best goalie, Tampa has the best goalie in every series, and the one time he wasn't they got swept by the Blue Jackets...

 

[Twine Tickler]

Depending on health, the Leafs are probably 2 defencemen and 2 forwards away from being a true contender

I am definitely on board to make a push for Severson I think it would have to be the right price though. I do believe he is an ideal fit, and I'd be OK packaging a 1st for him because he as 2 playoff runs to his name.

Liljegren however is completely off the table IMO. Makes zero sense.

I think 1st + Hirvonen + Kokkonen for Severson gets it done no problem.

Kokkonen and Hirvonen serve as a bit of a redundancy in our pool, and pose significantly higher floors than some of our other prospects, but maybe not overly high ceilings. Very similar to Durzi + Grundstrom in the Muzzin trade. Not likely a trade that we overwhelmingly regret. But also a trade that likely works out for both clubs down the line, like it appears to be doing for LA.

I think that's a framework I could run with. This would obviously require some retention on NJ end, and maybe even a 3rd party to double retain if we don't send money back the other way with Holl or Ritchie. But ultimately, I don't think we absolutely need to make that deal to become a contender. I genuinely think we have a good chance as is. We certainly are a top 5 team in the NHL when fully healthy. Which is about as good of a chance as anyone else in that top 5

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs defense is slightly above middle of the pack by expected goal metrics.

Leafs are 6th best in the league in expected goals against.

 

[zeke]

Tampa's 2nd defensive pairing is McDonagh - Sergachev.

Vegas' 2nd pairing is Shea Theodore - Whitecloud.

St. Louis' 2nd pairing is Krug - Faulk.

Be like them.

heh perfect - I can only imagine what you'd think of undrafted nobody Zach Whitecloud if he was a maple leaf. You certainly wouldn't see him as a legitimate top-4 dman.

Knights have a top-3 of Theodore/Pietrangelo/Martinez vs. The Leafs Rielly/Muzzin/Brodie. There's no difference there.

Krug-Faulk is Stl's top pairing. On their second pairing, with Parayko, they have nobody Niko Mikkola, in his first full season as an nhl dman.

and hey - the leafs give up fewer goals against and expected goals against than both those teams. weird.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I am definitely on board to make a push for Severson I think it would have to be the right price though. I do believe he is an ideal fit, and I'd be OK packaging a 1st for him because he as 2 playoff runs to his name.

Liljegren however is completely off the table IMO. Makes zero sense.

I think 1st + Hirvonen + Kokkonen for Severson gets it done no problem.

Kokkonen and Hirvonen serve as a bit of a redundancy in our pool, and pose significantly higher floors than some of our other prospects, but maybe not overly high ceilings. Very similar to Durzi + Grundstrom in the Muzzin trade. Not likely a trade that we overwhelmingly regret. But also a trade that likely works out for both clubs down the line, like it appears to be doing for LA.

I think that's a framework I could run with. This would obviously require some retention on NJ end, and maybe even a 3rd party to double retain if we don't send money back the other way with Holl or Ritchie. But ultimately, I don't think we absolutely need to make that deal to become a contender. I genuinely think we have a good chance as is. We certainly are a top 5 team in the NHL when fully healthy. Which is about as good of a chance as anyone else in that top 5

The problem is the cap both this year and next. 4 mill coming in and no money going out.

I guess you could ship Dermott and Ritchie out, which covers it, but the Leafs likely need to trade Kerfoot and Holl in the offseason.

 

[Kurtz]

Knights have a top-3 of Theodore/Pietrangelo/Martinez vs. The Leafs Rielly/Muzzin/Brodie. There's no difference there.

Come on...

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The Leafs defense is slightly above middle of the pack by expected goal metrics. The raw goals against totals have been better than that due to luck and goaltending, but the Leafs are certainly not one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.

they're 6th in expected and actual goals against

 

[zeke]

The Leafs defense is slightly above middle of the pack by expected goal metrics. The raw goals against totals have been better than that due to luck and goaltending, but the Leafs are certainly not one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.

they currently rank #4 in expected goals against per 60 minutes, in all situations. one of the very best in the league.

At 5v5 they rank #10, which is not quite as good but still very good - but importantly, that 10th rank is closer to 2nd overall (.16 back), and much closer to 4th overall (.10 back), than it is to middle of the pack (.17 ahead of 16th, .18 ahead of 17th).

And the PK defense is ranked 6th.

The leafs are very good defensively.

 

[zeke]

Come on...

come on what?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

A lot of decisions ahead. Like I said, so many variables can happen. We can move out Muzzin and Brodie, we can trade Marner if things go bad, etc etc etc. It's endless. If Rielly re-signed for 7.5M despite being a star/elite level player, I don't think it would take an immense amount of money to re-sign Severson here.

At the end of the day, we have to compete now and maybe that's a move that pushes in the end goal. But I also understand playing it safe and keeping longer term assets in the fold.

I'm not saying to not target Severson just that his contract ends at a time when the leafs have a ton of big decisions to make as you've said and as a result it will make it more difficult to resign him.

I don't see leafs moving brodie. Hell I could even see them resigning him to be a 2nd/3rd pairing guy on his next contract if the AAV is right. Muzzin has a ton of control with all the NMC/modified NTC that were given to him. Dont see him moving as a result other than possibly the last year whereby the leafs won't get close to good value.

Unfortunately I guess I'm a bit pessimistic but I want to see the leafs make it past round 1 before any more big package trades are made. Can't have another 1st for a rental and then the leafs face say Tampa or Florida and get bounced. Severson has 2 years of term but I think I would only trade for him if the leafs have a good idea what his next contract demand is and that they could fit it in.

 

[Fogelhund]

Depending on health, the Leafs are probably 2 defencemen and 2 forwards away from being a true contender and making a run in the playoffs. The health of Muzzin will dictate how far off the Leafs are in terms of roster construction when it comes to the playoff push.

You can also tell how Keefe feels with his heavy reliance on Rielly and Brodie at the end of games.

I think the top 4 defense has to be a main focus at the deadline and I would personally move 1st round picks and prospects if you're getting someone in with term at a good rate.

I don't think it's 2+2.... I think we need to add a D.... from there, we should be contenders...another good forward would be nice.

 

[showtime8]

come on what?

You can look yourself in the mirror and honestly say that Pietro/Theodore/Martinez are equal to Rielly/Brodie/Muzzin?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I'm all in favour for improving the back end, but this year the Leafs have actually played better defence than most of high powered offence teams. Tampa has been slightly better defensively, but we have the big edge on offence 5 on 5 and on the PP.

The biggest difference maker for Tampa is that they have a game breaking goalie, people don't want to hear it but they're not that much different than the Leafs outside of that. Even last year when Campbell was great, that was the 5 straight series we had the 2nd best goalie, Tampa has the best goalie in every series, and the one time he wasn't they got swept by the Blue Jackets...

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Interesting graphics, looks like the leafs left sided defenders and forwards generally are poorer defensively than the right sided players. Leafs high slot gets a lot of shots against which matches the eye test.

Also Vegas is getting their face kicked in directly in the slot while Tampa has 0 activity in their slot.

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: Damon Severson
To New Jersey: Travis Dermott, Nick Robertson, Nick Ritchie, 2023 2nd

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Severson
Sandin - Liljegren

 

[showtime8]

I don't think it's 2+2.... I think we need to add a D.... from there, we should be contenders...another good forward would be nice.

In my opinion, you need a significant upgrade on Holl and I think you can get better production from the money they're spending on Dermott.

At forward, I think you can upgrade 2 pieces on the left side. Whether its bringing in a top 6 grinder that would work well on that 2nd/3rd line or bringing in a 4th line LW that can skate. For the last while on these boards, people have said how Mikheyev goes invisible on the playoffs and how Engvall doesn't really have that game. If you have a better 3rd checking line, you have the availability to move Engvall to the 4th line for better matchups and you also have the chance to shut down the other teams top line so you don't have to have Matthews against them all game.

 

[Fogelhund]

In my opinion, you need a significant upgrade on Holl and I think you can get better production from the money they're spending on Dermott.

At forward, I think you can upgrade 2 pieces on the left side. Whether its bringing in a top 6 grinder that would work well on that 2nd/3rd line or bringing in a 4th line LW that can skate. For the last while on these boards, people have said how Mikheyev goes invisible on the playoffs and how Engvall doesn't really have that game. If you have a better 3rd checking line, you have the availability to move Engvall to the 4th line for better matchups and you also have the chance to shut down the other teams top line so you don't have to have Matthews against them all game.

Agree on Holl.

Our failure last year, was about Tavares and Matthews being injured, not scoring enough. That is our main need, our key players being healthy, and productive.

We need internal growth to succeed....

we need Mikheyev and Engvall to be better, and they have been this year, by all measurements... When healthy, our forward lineup is good enough, and has actually been outstanding at times. We've got time to evaluate what we have, if we can get everyone healthy.

we need Sandin and Liljegren to continue to grow.

If we pick up a D man, it's either Holl, or Dermott going out the door. I think Dermott is fine for 6/7 now, but it might be time to move on from him too. I'm ok making moves, and bringing in a heavy 6/7 guy, if we move Dermott... but I think it's Holl that's the key here.

...and of course Campbell playing to his first half of the seasons.

There is also no such thing as a 3rd checking line.

 

[TML1967]

Only think I don’t like about the Ritchie for Del Zotto idea is that teams would be much more inclined to take on the 26 year old Ritchie in the off-season than the 32 year old Del Zotto.

Severson is a good target

Del Zotto is a confusing one to me for Ottawa.
His counting stats are good this year (6 points in 10 games) and thats with a PDO below 95 and starting 60+% defensive zone starts. Over his last 5 NHL games he had 2-2-4 and averaged like 18 minutes a game.
Im sure watching him something must have been off, just hard to see what.

 

[zeke]

You can look yourself in the mirror and honestly say that Pietro/Theodore/Martinez are equal to Rielly/Brodie/Muzzin?

it's funny that leaf fans don't even understand how good their own dmen are. Which of course means they don't understand why the leafs are so good defensively.

Do you not realize that Rielly, Muzzin, and Brodie have been quality #1 and #2 dmen on very good teams for pretty much their entire careers? Do we not understand how few teams have 3 dmen of that calibre?

Meanwhile, we look at names on other teams and think they are great and never slump - that only our guys ever struggle for periods. They can't even consider that Pietro has looked mostly awful since signing in Vegas, or that Theodore has been a sieve this year too.

Hell, Muzzin and Martinez played on the same team for years and Muzzin was always ahead of him (not to mention 2 years younger than him).

Anyways, don't take my biased homer word for it, here's what unbiased stats that judge all-around play think of them at this point:

GSVA

Rielly 2.7 --- Theodore 2.6
Muzzin 1.3 -- Pietrangelo 1.6
Brodie 1.2 --- Martinez 1.1

Evolving-Hockey 3yr

Muzzin 93 ---- Theodore 90
Brodie 87 ----- Pietrangelo 73
Rielly 83 ------ Martinez 70

Evolving-Hockey 1yr

Rielly 94 ------ Theodore 50
Brodie 76 ----- Pietrangelo 4
Muzzin 70 ---- Martinez ---


and before you LOL NERD STATS your response, understand that the Knights are one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year, while the Leafs are one of the best for the 2nd year running.

 

[Ashdown2]

In my opinion, you need a significant upgrade on Holl and I think you can get better production from the money they're spending on Dermott.

At forward, I think you can upgrade 2 pieces on the left side. Whether its bringing in a top 6 grinder that would work well on that 2nd/3rd line or bringing in a 4th line LW that can skate. For the last while on these boards, people have said how Mikheyev goes invisible on the playoffs and how Engvall doesn't really have that game. If you have a better 3rd checking line, you have the availability to move Engvall to the 4th line for better matchups and you also have the chance to shut down the other teams top line so you don't have to have Matthews against them all game.

agree on holl but dermott is the 7th d on this team........ unless you need TD as a trade piece or to free up the cap, hes a probably the best 7th man in the league and a perfect dual sided insurance policy in case of injury ....... getting rid of holl and dermott means you are pretty boned if someone goes down.

as for the forwards i dont think we need to make that many changes. the C and RW positions are pretty stacked and hard to upgrade. Looking at the left side , ideally you get a goal scorer to play top 6 which pushes every down down a line and fixes all the problems. your not going to get better than kerfoot/mik/engval on the 3rd and 4th line.

 

[TML1967]

I'd rather keep Liljegren than trade him especially for a guy like Severson. I'd rather see if a DeMelo is available which is what the Leafs need more of.

My cheap depth guy acquisitions are Pysyk and Luke Schenn..
Pysyk is quietly having a really good defensive season. Plays good minutes against tough opponents, and is keeping his and his team head above water. He also looked good at the tail end of last year.
Schenn brings the physicality, he plays the PK well, and has some good playoff experience. Not as good at skating as Pysyk, but he keeps up.

Both of these guys are more 3rd pair guys, but if the bigger names end up being too costly they are good pieces to have.

 

[JA17]

You can look yourself in the mirror and honestly say that Pietro/Theodore/Martinez are equal to Rielly/Brodie/Muzzin?

Hey that is more likely to be true than his last affirmation that Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, and Sandin are equal to Hedman, McDonough, Sergachev, and Cernak

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

We should target Hagel from Chicago and Soucy from Seattle.

To Toronto
Hagel

To Chicago
2023 2nd
Travis dermott

To Toronto
Soucy 50 % retained

To Seattle
2022 1st
Kerfoot
Kral/ Rubins

 

[TMLAM34]

We should target Hagel from Chicago and Soucy from Seattle.

To Toronto
Hagel

To Chicago
2023 2nd
Travis dermott

To Toronto
Soucy 50 % retained

To Seattle
2022 1st
Kerfoot
Kral/ Rubins

That’s a massive overpayment for Soucy…

 

[TML1967]

A good add (or two) to the D core and another good two way forward would make me happy, if we are talking realistic targets.
Pysyk or Schenn fore depth D help.
One of Soucy or Mayfield to play instead of Holl (or at least to bump Holl down to third pair, issue being Liljgren than doest play)

By doing both moves, we protect ourselves more than previous years from injury.
If Muzzin goes down again, you can still run a solid top 4 with additional guys who can PK and play hard minutes. Reilly, Brodie, Muzzin, (Mayfield/Soucy), Sandin, Liljgren, (Pysyk/Schenn), Dermott is a much more balanced top 8 than we currently have. You can go through 2 D injuries before having to rely on unknowns. Im assuming you move Holl at the TDL, but could be Dermott.

Up front, im sneakily looking at a guy like Johan Larsson. His name isnt out there all too much, but he is having a really good season on an abysmal team. He is a legit defensive forward who can play against really tough competition, but this year has shown a bit more offensive touch (15p in 29 games). He is on a cheap deal, and because he isnt a huge name the acquisition price should be low.


If the plan is to try and be a 3 line team, you can have him in the middle with Nylander and Kerfoot on the third line, moving Kamf to a 4th line with Engval.

I know everyone is talking about Hagel and for good reason, but with counting stats and 2 more years at 1.5m the assumed price is high. (Maybe move out Kerfoot, bring in Hagel? Saves 2m)

Bunting - Matthews - Kase
Mikheyev/Hagel - Tavares - Marner
Mikheyev/Hagel - Larson - Nylander
Engval - Kamf - Spezza/Simmonds

Reilly-Brodie
Muzzin - Soucy/Mayfield
Sandin - Liljgren/Pysyk/Schenn
Dermott - Liljgren/Pysyk/Schenn
Liljgren/Pysyk/Schenn