GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART V

[Maplebeasts]

The Leafs are clearly better defensively than the Panthers and clearly have more offensive depth than the Bolts.

Also unlike the Panthers they can win on the road.

 

[dubplatepressure]

The Leafs are clearly better defensively than the Panthers and clearly have more offensive depth than the Bolts.

2.7 GA/G for Toronto, 2.8 for Florida.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

david savard is probably a comparable from last year and it took a first, 3rd and 4th round pick

Yeah I am not paying that for Manson, even if he has double retention.

 

[Judas Tavares]

The Leafs expected GA metrics which do not care who your goalie is are top 10 as well. The reality is that the Leafs are good on defense, but it's easy to fall into the trap that they suck because of negative media attention and past results which leave a sour taste in all of our mouths. I've been guilty of it too.

Media has a big influence. Someone like Kypreos could do a one minute hit about a player he dislikes and after that a huge chunk of the fanbase will not only 100% agree with what he said, but will bang on that drum for years. Another example is Braden Schneider. Craig Button does a hit saying he thinks he would be a good fit for the Leafs at their pick. We go from most of us having never even heard of him, to banging the drum of he is the absolute must pick. And if he isn't picked, it will be an absolute travesty. Sure a guy like Schneider would help. But it was really funny how much that train picked up steam once it left the station and how rattled people were when he wasn't the pick.

Should that really come as a surprise to anyone?

We didn't give him a 3.8 x 3 contract because we felt like it... He had a lot of other teams interested in him, and the market is arguably even weaker for goalies this upcoming offseason. An injury and some inconsistent play in a very small sample size as a result is not going to change that.

Mrazek was disliked the second he was signed by a large portion of this fanbase because:
-Not a sexy name, even though he has had a fine career
-Campbell won over the hearts of the fanbase. Why do we need this guy coming in?
-Let's be honest, any contract signed by Dubas gets extra grumblings when signed, whether deserved or not. The fact that it was for multiple years and for what seems to be perceived as a bad cap hit, well that caused even more grumblings.

The contract is more than fine and he has value across the league. Just because a bunch of fans on a message board dislike him, doesn't mean he doesn't have value.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tampa was 1st in hits per game during the 2020 playoffs.

They were actually 2nd if you adjust for the amount of overtime they played, and they were middle of the pack last year. That 2nd place finish is the highest finish of any Stanley Cup champion in the cap era.

Stanley Cup champions in the cap era, playoff hits/60 ranking out of 16 teams

2006: 9th
2007: 9th
2008: 14th
2009: 9th
2010: 13th
2011: 12th
2012: 3rd
2013: 16th
2014: 3rd
2015: 14th
2016: 11th
2017: 13th
2018: 5th
2019: 10th
2020: 2nd
2021: 8th

That means 11 out of the 16 Cup champions in the cap era were below average hitting teams in the playoffs in which they won. We've never lost any playoff series because of physicality, we are very good at the actual effective kinds of physicality, and we have no problem engaging in the fan-spectacle physicality when called for. This is an old, tired narrative that needs to die.

Possession hockey is good in the regular season

Possession hockey is good all the time.

 

[Magic Man]

I thought Buffalo for Bjork gets the AAV slightly down.

Or depending what Chicago does, maybe they'd give Khaira and Borgstrom for Ritchie.

I could probably get behind Khaira and Borgstrom. They can both be buried without cap penalty if need be. Khaira would be a more appropriately priced replacement for Ritchie as the 13th forward. Borgstrom would be waiver claim proof with his contract imo, which is okay because they've had trouble getting waiver eligible centers down to the Marlies like Brooks and Amadio.

If the Leafs could pull a late round (5th/6th) out of them as well I think that would be a fine trade.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

They were 2nd if you adjust for the amount of overtime they played, and they were middle of the pack last year. That 2nd place finish is the highest finish of any Stanley Cup champion in the cap era.

Stanley Cup champions in the cap era, playoff hits/60 ranking out of 16 teams

2006: 9th
2007: 9th
2008: 14th
2009: 9th
2010: 13th
2011: 12th
2012: 3rd
2013: 16th
2014: 3rd
2015: 14th
2016: 11th
2017: 13th
2018: 5th
2019: 10th
2020: 2nd
2021: 8th

That means 11 out of the 16 Cup champions in the cap era were below average hitting teams in the playoffs in which they won. We've never lost any playoff series because of physicality, we are very good at the actual effective kinds of physicality, and we have no problem engaging in the fan-spectacle physicality when called for. This is an old, tired narrative that needs to die.

Possession hockey is good all the time.

Your points are legitimate. I don't want to come across like I'm married to hits being a sole decider but I do disagree with the Leafs' ability to tolerate or implement physicality.

This includes "actual" physicality and not glamorous hitting.

Their forecheck success rate drops to 34% in knockout games (54% in regular situations). In the Columbus series, their forecheck chances went to 0% in game 5. On the other hand, Columbus' forecheck success rate went up including their forecheck chances.

That's unacceptable when the other team is piling up the chances through simple pressure on the defensemen. It indicates a team that has no heart or grit under duress while the forwards provide little support.

You can even go back and watch what Columbus did to Toronto on the forecheck. Even their series winner was off a successful forecheck where Toronto folded under pressure.

The Leafs have looked timid in all of their deciding games. This has been clear to the eye test let alone the underlying stats. Non-existent forechecking, inconsistent puck battles with entire periods being taken off, and a good chunk of their chances getting created through open-ice plays.

They definitely can and should win games against teams like Columbus and Montreal despite these flaws. The skill gap was so high, they really should have got the job done. However, it's much harder to see them doing it against a team that can match their skill and punish them for their timid playstyle.

I want to see them get over the hump but I have question marks about the system in a playoff setting. I have similar questions about the Avalanche too.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

The Leafs are clearly better defensively than the Panthers and clearly have more offensive depth than the Bolts.

To be fair, they were both of those things vs Columbus and Montreal too.

Florida is understandable and debatable but Tampa's forwards, goaltending, and defensive core are proven under duress. Having a couple of nice depth forwards doesn't make up that gap.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Your points are legitimate. I don't want to come across like I'm married to hits being a sole decider but I do disagree with the Leafs' ability to tolerate or implement physicality.

This includes "actual" physicality and not glamorous hitting.

Their forecheck success rate drops to 34% in knockout games (54% in regular situations). In the Columbus series, their forecheck chances went to 0% in game 5. On the other hand, Columbus' forecheck success rate went up including their forecheck chances.

That's unacceptable when the other team is piling up the chances through simple pressure on the defensemen. It indicates a team that has no heart or grit under duress while the forwards provide little support.

You can even go back and watch what Columbus did to Toronto on the forecheck. Even their series winner was off a successful forecheck where Toronto folded under pressure.

The Leafs have looked timid in all of their deciding games. This has been clear to the eye test let alone the underlying stats. Non-existent forechecking, inconsistent puck battles with entire periods being taken off, and a good chunk of their chances getting created through open-ice plays.

They definitely can and should win games against teams like Columbus and Montreal despite these flaws. The skill gap was so high, they really should have got the job done. However, it's much harder to see them doing it against a team that can match their skill and punish them for their timid playstyle.

I want to see them get over the hump but I have question marks about the system in a playoff setting. I have similar questions about the Avalanche too.

Nice post. Very different from your original hits one. I understand better what you are trying to say now.

 

[OVO16]

This is BS, of course physical players can play here (Muzzin and Simmonds). However, you need to be able to process the game and make quick plays to play here. The reason Ritchie doesn't work is because he is a f***ing idiot, both on and off the ice. Not a bad guy, just really f***ing dumb.

Wtf are you even talking about?

Where in my post did I say Management "didn't" add physical players. My complaint was our system and how neutered we are when actually implementing Physical play into our game plan.

1. Jake Muzzin has not been the same physical Muzzin that we were accustomed to in Los Angeles. He barely throws any hits now
2. Wayne Simmonds has not had the same Swagger like he did with other teams. He barely threw any hits in the Montreal Series. Barely ever mixed it up outside of a few times here and there
3. Same with Nick Foligno and Zach Bogosian. Bogosian was a lot meaner when he was with Buffalo and Tampa Bay

No where did I say just get face punchers who dont know how to process the game and make quick plays. No where in my post did I mention Nick Ritchie or why he isnt in the lineup. I know he hasnt been good. But even Nick Ritchie wasnt a physical factor in his short time with us.

We simply refuse to let our physical players be physical. I dont know why that hurts so many of your feelings

 

[OVO16]

Simmonds
Foligno
Ritchie
Bogosian
Muzzin
Clifford

I'm sure I'm forgetting more. If your point is that the GM and staff haven't attempted to add physicality to the lineup, I don't know what to tell you. You aren't paying attention.

You need to be physical but also know how to play hockey to play in this system. Simply adding physicality that can't play isn't the answer.

Yeah you missed the point. My point wasnt that the GM hasnt attempted to add physciality. How about you pay attention instead. Read the post again.

Its about style of play. All of those players you listed out...never actually played the physical game like they were accustomed too or that we expected. Thats definitely not a coincidence.

Hence why I said even adding Tom Wilson won't do anything because im sure we're going to neuter him too. He'll make no physical impact as soon as he wears that leaf sweater.

Its our style of play. Keefe literally said our mantra is "Our Powerplay is our enforcer". Anyone with that mantra, its clear they have zero intention of mixing it up in the playoffs when its war time.

I never said add useless face punchers. How about we start with just enfusing the players that we do have to start playing with some physicality?

 

[OVO16]

It seems like a Keefe problem.

All of these players were far more assertive and physical on other teams. This includes Muzzin. The guy barely lays a momentum-changing hit nowadays because Keefe has a system designed to avoid such contact as it takes you out of position. In comparison, Muzzin laid out many big hits in LA when they won.

Even Keefe's language says it all about his opinion on physical play and the extracurricular stuff.

Just yesterday he said, "All of that crap at the end of the second period..."

He literally views physical play and rough stuff as "crap".

That message gets sent down to the team and you end up seeing what we see. I think Keefe underestimates how physical playoff hockey is. The rules get thrown out half the time with players roughing it up during and after every play. This is one of the reasons they've gone up in a series twice under Keefe and choked once the other team got desperate.

This right here is exactly the point im trying to make.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Wtf are you even talking about?

Where in my post did I say Management "didn't" add physical players. My complaint was our system and how neutered we are when actually implementing Physical play into our game plan.

1. Jake Muzzin has not been the same physical Muzzin that we were accustomed to in Los Angeles. He barely throws any hits now
2. Wayne Simmonds has not had the same Swagger like he did with other teams. He barely threw any hits in the Montreal Series. Barely ever mixed it up outside of a few times here and there
3. Same with Nick Foligno and Zach Bogosian. Bogosian was a lot meaner when he was with Buffalo and Tampa Bay

No where did I say just get face punchers who dont know how to process the game and make quick plays. No where in my post did I mention Nick Ritchie or why he isnt in the lineup. I know he hasnt been good. But even Nick Ritchie wasnt a physical factor in his short time with us.

We simply refuse to let our physical players be physical. I dont know why that hurts so many of your feelings

Or maybe watching every shift of those players vs the odd highlight paints a very different picture

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Yeah you missed the point. My point wasnt that the GM hasnt attempted to add physciality. How about you pay attention instead. Read the post again.

Its about style of play. All of those players you listed out...never actually played the physical game like they were accustomed too or that we expected. Thats definitely not a coincidence.

Hence why I said even adding Tom Wilson won't do anything because im sure we're going to neuter him too. He'll make no physical impact as soon as he wears that leaf sweater.

Its our style of play. Keefe literally said our mantra is "Our Powerplay is our enforcer". Anyone with that mantra, its clear they have zero intention of mixing it up in the playoffs when its war time.

I never said add useless face punchers. How about we start with just enfusing the players that we do have to start playing with some physicality?

your point isn't hard to understand, it just makes no sense. Why would they target a bunch of physical players and then tell them all to not play that way anymore? Also, Keefe never said that

 

[uncleben]

PART VI found HERE