GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART V

[Dekes For Days]

I'm completely baffled how one could simultaneously not appreciate Marner, but want Konecny.

 

[showtime8]

In general I don't think Leafs fans are appreciating what Sandin and Lilly are.

That's probably mostly because the media is so warped in this market.

In any other market, this level of play from super young high ceiling 1st round talents would have the media GUSHING about the leafs' stacked young defensive depth.

But here for some insane reason they're viewed as WEAKNESSES on the team in need of upgrading.

This constantly happens with young defensemen in this market. They often judge too early and don't give enough runway for mistakes.

Here's the problem that I see with it. They are both learning as trial by fire and there's no real set plan with them. Or maybe there is a plan and they've had to adjust based on injuries and Covid. Liljegren has been in a rotation of sorts with Dermott for the first half of the season and any time he comes into the line-up, it seems like he needs a game or half a game to find his footing. Then they get matched together and get burned in times where they have to play in their own end for any sort of stretch. Ultimately, you'd like to pair both with some sort of veteran presence that can help solidify their transition and defensive game, but Muzzin has struggled this season and has looked slower and Holl hasn't been very good either. So really, you don't have many good options on how to protect either Sandin or Liljegren and that gives the louder criticism from the media.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I don’t think we should make a big splash at the deadline again. Can’t keep trading our picks away if we want to keep our window open for a long time we need to have good players coming up on ELCs in the future as we will be crunched against the cap. Dubas really blew it last year with the Foligno trade.

I agree with the fact that we can't just keep sending away picks for players to give us very little in return, but I will stand by the Foligno acquisition. We were in a prime spot to get through to the ECF with the north division being the way it was.

You are not going to hit on every move, Foligno was undoubtedly a flop unfortunately. I genuinely think both he and CBJ downplayed how banged up he had been all year. I am sure Nick wanted a shot at a cup and made it known he was ready to go, and Jarmo was just doing his job extrapolating anything for his vet.

Nick was the perfect fit if healthy. He is a tremendous leader and someone that we desperately missed in key moments. The price was always steep, but that price was being offered by multiple teams. It was always going to be a 1st rounder for Nick. Kyle only slightly improved the deal by including the 4th rounder if I remember correctly. This is knowledge based on the Amazon series. In the grand scheme of things it is a negligible difference especially when you consider how well we have drafted in the previous 3 years.

But I do agree, I really don't think we need to swing for the fences this year. I really genuinely believe we have a team that can seriously contend, and we are not going to be drastically better by giving up our 1st round selection this coming draft for a marginally better defenseman like Chiarot. I'd be far more inclined to go with a secondary defenseman that fits that mold, like a Luke Schenn. Cup winner, journeyman, high and hard off the glass and out simple Defensman who can kill penalties and eat decent minutes in and around the net. He would come at a fraction of the cost, and he could be a guy that checks in and out of the lineup when we need a different look. Is he perfect? no, but neither is Severson and Chiarot, so why not pay less?

to me we have an equally good chance at winning the cup with the addition of any of those 3 players. Because you still are going to require a bit of luck just to get out of our division let alone win it all.

 

[showtime8]

I'm completely baffled how one could simultaneously not appreciate Marner, but want Konecny.

Style of play I guess?

 

[Kiwi]

Severson is much more rounded than Braun both offensively and defensively. He's much younger as well. He kills a lot of penalties and can definitely do well offensively.

I wouldn't bet against being able to keep someone like Severson after his deal is up. Also, the big reason you pay the big price for him is if they retain and/or take on a bad contract to make it work.

I don't mind Braun but if you want quality, Severson is it. Braun is much closer to a Bogosian level of addition as opposed to a bonafide 21+ minute defenseman that will and can give you first pairing quality on the 2nd pairing.

It doesn't matter that he's younger, we can't afford to resign him anyway

I saw Braun's card and I seriously doubt Severson is better defensively, although he has zero offense

If I'm paying through the nose I'd better be getting Chychrun not Severson

 

[Dekes For Days]

Style of play I guess?

But Konecny doesn't even have a different style of play... He's just considerably worse at everything. Even the things that people claim are relative weaknesses in Marner, it's the same for Konecny but even more-so.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Style of play I guess?

Or contract

 

[SprDaVE]

It doesn't matter that he's younger, we can't afford to resign him anyway

I saw Braun's card and I seriously doubt Severson is better defensively, although he has zero offense

If I'm paying through the nose I'd better be getting Chychrun not Severson

When Seversons current contract is up, the Leafs are projected to have 19M of cap space. Obviously it will be less by then but... they can re-sign him. You can always make it work. So many things that can happen until then. And if we can't re-sign him, we can only hope we were succesful in the playoffs with a top end defensive core.

Chychrun is fine as well, but you're going to pay more than that for him.

 

[zeke]

 

[zeke]

nah what happened was people started using Sandin to acquire guys like Jakob in hypotheticals, then Sandin fan boys said no way Chychrun is over rated look at his +/-. Then those who were using Sandin in offers for impact core players, which is a compliment really since it implies Sandin has great value, were put in the unfortunate circumstance where they have to point out some flaws that make him expendable IF it's for guys like Chychrun. So in the end you end up getting a lot of posts pointing out Sandins flaws which give off the impression people don't like him as an asset, which is false.

Think about it. Sandins name didn't exist in this thread until the Chychrun rumors came out.

in fact, i'm one of the ones who put Sandin's name up in a Chychrun trade in here. But that was only based on the idea of Chychrun maybe being a Sandin+ type upside player, which i'm not sure he is.

 

[showtime8]

I agree with the fact that we can't just keep sending away picks for players to give us very little in return, but I will stand by the Foligno acquisition. We were in a prime spot to get through to the ECF with the north division being the way it was.

You are not going to hit on every move, Foligno was undoubtedly a flop unfortunately. I genuinely think both he and CBJ downplayed how banged up he had been all year. I am sure Nick wanted a shot at a cup and made it known he was ready to go, and Jarmo was just doing his job extrapolating anything for his vet.

Nick was the perfect fit if healthy. He is a tremendous leader and someone that we desperately missed in key moments. The price was always steep, but that price was being offered by multiple teams. It was always going to be a 1st rounder for Nick. Kyle only slightly improved the deal by including the 4th rounder if I remember correctly. This is knowledge based on the Amazon series. In the grand scheme of things it is a negligible difference especially when you consider how well we have drafted in the previous 3 years.

But I do agree, I really don't think we need to swing for the fences this year. I really genuinely believe we have a team that can seriously contend, and we are not going to be drastically better by giving up our 1st round selection this coming draft for a marginally better defenseman like Chiarot. I'd be far more inclined to go with a secondary defenseman that fits that mold, like a Luke Schenn. Cup winner, journeyman, high and hard off the glass and out simple Defensman who can kill penalties and eat decent minutes in and around the net. He would come at a fraction of the cost, and he could be a guy that checks in and out of the lineup when we need a different look. Is he perfect? no, but neither is Severson and Chiarot, so why not pay less?

to me we have an equally good chance at winning the cup with the addition of any of those 3 players. Because you still are going to require a bit of luck just to get out of our division let alone win it all.

Depending on health, the Leafs are probably 2 defencemen and 2 forwards away from being a true contender and making a run in the playoffs. The health of Muzzin will dictate how far off the Leafs are in terms of roster construction when it comes to the playoff push.

You can also tell how Keefe feels with his heavy reliance on Rielly and Brodie at the end of games.

I think the top 4 defense has to be a main focus at the deadline and I would personally move 1st round picks and prospects if you're getting someone in with term at a good rate.

 

[TheShape]

Well you’re talking about a 90 point forward and a #5D for a 50 point forward and a #2 D.

With the cap savings it maybe shifts the value in our favour but that isn’t some kind of fleecing.

I think Marner has become criminally underrated around here

Feels like we’re selling low on Marner in that scenario. I’m someone who equates a player’s value in relation to their cap hit. Marner is an elite player and people are forgetting how good he can be, but he isn’t worth 11m in a flat cap and probably never will be.

I’d like to explore something around Marner for Tkachuk and Andersson. Andersson is a legit top 4 RHD under cost control so we be the ones who have to add there.

 

[zeke]

This constantly happens with young defensemen in this market. They often judge too early and don't give enough runway for mistakes.

Here's the problem that I see with it. They are both learning as trial by fire and there's no real set plan with them. Or maybe there is a plan and they've had to adjust based on injuries and Covid. Liljegren has been in a rotation of sorts with Dermott for the first half of the season and any time he comes into the line-up, it seems like he needs a game or half a game to find his footing. Then they get matched together and get burned in times where they have to play in their own end for any sort of stretch. Ultimately, you'd like to pair both with some sort of veteran presence that can help solidify their transition and defensive game, but Muzzin has struggled this season and has looked slower and Holl hasn't been very good either. So really, you don't have many good options on how to protect either Sandin or Liljegren and that gives the louder criticism from the media.

I don't see that problem at all.

They are getting a pretty normal progression - getting their feet wet on the bottom pair and then gradually getting increased duty as the need arises.

There was maybe a bit of delay on both of them thanks to the weirdness and cap/roster crunch of the last two covid years, but that's it. Even then, at 21 and 22 yrs old and just starting to break into top-4 duty that's a very normal progression anyways.

as for the play of muzz-holl and sandin-lilly this year being worrisome for some reason - that's pretty crazy, given that the Leafs are one of the best defensive teams in the league. the idea that our dcorps is something to fret over is deeply weird when they're in fact a bigtime strength.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

When Seversons current contract is up, the Leafs are projected to have 19M of cap space. Obviously it will be less by then but... they can re-sign him. You can always make it work. So many things that can happen until then. And if we can't re-sign him, we can only hope we were succesful in the playoffs with a top end defensive core.

Chychrun is fine as well, but you're going to pay more than that for him.

Severson's contract expires a year before Nylander and Matthews need new contracts so that would be a tricky resign i think. Imagine what Matthews is worth now with a rocket under his belt, same with Nylander. I'm expecting a big raise for Nylander and a modest raise for Matthews. Also lots of guys like Lily, Sandin etc will likely have their probable bridge contracts up around then too.

 

[zeke]

Depending on health, the Leafs are probably 2 defencemen and 2 forwards away from being a true contender and making a run in the playoffs. .

this is a nutso statement.

quick - name me Florida's 2nd defense pair.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

this is a nutso statement.

quick - name me Florida's 2nd defense pair.

Spoiler: Florida's 2nd Pairing

Forsling - Montour

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

this is a nutso statement.

quick - name me Florida's 2nd defense pair.

No idea, Radko Gudas maybe

 

[zeke]

or just as quickly - name me TB or COL's 3rd lines.

 

[showtime8]

I don't see that problem at all.

They are getting a pretty normal progression - getting their feet wet on the bottom pair and then gradually getting increased duty as the need arises.

There was maybe a bit of delay on both of them thanks to the weirdness and cap/roster crunch of the last two covid years, but that's it. Even then, at 21 and 22 yrs old and just starting to break into top-4 duty that's a very normal progression anyways.

as for the play of muzz-holl and sandin-lilly this year being worrisome for some reason - that's pretty crazy, given that the Leafs are one of the best defensive teams in the league. the idea that our dcorps is something to fret over is deeply weird when they're in fact a bigtime strength.

Okay, but do you want this progression in a year where the team actually has to do something in the playoffs or should this have happened a couple years ago in terms of the alignment of team goals.

I get that both these kids are talented and offer different styles of games, but if your job is on the line, would you want to gamble your career in hopes of some progression?

How do you figure that they are one of the better defensive teams? Just in terms of goals per game or are you using other metrics?

 

[SprDaVE]

Severson's contract expires a year before Nylander and Matthews need new contracts so that would be a tricky resign i think. Imagine what Matthews is worth now with a rocket under his belt, same with Nylander. I'm expecting a big raise for Nylander and a modest raise for Matthews. Also lots of guys like Lily, Sandin etc will likely have their probable bridge contracts up around then too.

A lot of decisions ahead. Like I said, so many variables can happen. We can move out Muzzin and Brodie, we can trade Marner if things go bad, etc etc etc. It's endless. If Rielly re-signed for 7.5M despite being a star/elite level player, I don't think it would take an immense amount of money to re-sign Severson here.

At the end of the day, we have to compete now and maybe that's a move that pushes in the end goal. But I also understand playing it safe and keeping longer term assets in the fold.

 

[zeke]

Okay, but do you want this progression in a year where the team actually has to do something in the playoffs or should this have happened a couple years ago in terms of the alignment of team goals.

It's the exact progression that Sergachev and Cernak were on when TB won their first cup. In fact, TB were even more reliant on those 21 and 22yr olds than the Leafs are on theirs.

 

[showtime8]

this is a nutso statement.

quick - name me Florida's 2nd defense pair.

Tampa's 2nd defensive pairing is McDonagh - Sergachev.

Vegas' 2nd pairing is Shea Theodore - Whitecloud.

St. Louis' 2nd pairing is Krug - Faulk.

Be like them.

 

[showtime8]

It's the exact progression that Sergachev and Cernak were on when TB won their first cup. In fact, TB were even more reliant on those 21 and 22yr olds than the Leafs are on theirs.

Who were they paired with?

 

[X66]

I'm still on the train of getting a better forward than a better dman, I think with out xGF train, adding a game breaker could be very dangerous.

Overall the team already plays great defensively.

But if we do go the Dman route(which I'd still be happy with) I'd want to add one more forward.

I really wonder if Parise would be available, IMHO he'd be an amazing add to the team.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Wouldn't mind JVR at 50% for this year and next if the Flyers are selling. Or Derek Brassard on the cheaper end.