GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART V

[Hockey 4 Life]

That’s a massive overpayment for Soucy…

Hes a top4 d whos big mean and physical and can put up offense. I think its fair value and we save 2 million in cap as well as have him for next year as well.

 

[Shooter2x]

wtf did Panthers offer Coyotes that made Rangers and LA back out. Uh oh. Really need the Kings or Jackets to win this.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Leaffan1991]

It's the exact progression that Sergachev and Cernak were on when TB won their first cup. In fact, TB were even more reliant on those 21 and 22yr olds than the Leafs are on theirs.

they were big strong defenders though ours are small and weak

 

[Kurtz]

it's funny that leaf fans don't even understand how good their own dmen are. Which of course means they don't understand why the leafs are so good defensively.

Do you not realize that Rielly, Muzzin, and Brodie have been quality #1 and #2 dmen on very good teams for pretty much their entire careers? Do we not understand how few teams have 3 dmen of that calibre?

Meanwhile, we look at names on other teams and think they are great and never slump - that only our guys ever struggle for periods. They can't even consider that Pietro has looked mostly awful since signing in Vegas, or that Theodore has been a sieve this year too.

Hell, Muzzin and Martinez played on the same team for years and Muzzin was always ahead of him (not to mention 2 years younger than him).

Anyways, don't take my biased homer word for it, here's what unbiased stats that judge all-around play think of them at this point:

GSVA

Rielly 2.7 --- Theodore 2.6
Muzzin 1.3 -- Pietrangelo 1.6
Brodie 1.2 --- Martinez 1.1

Evolving-Hockey 3yr

Muzzin 93 ---- Theodore 90
Brodie 87 ----- Pietrangelo 73
Rielly 83 ------ Martinez 70

Evolving-Hockey 1yr

Rielly 94 ------ Theodore 50
Brodie 76 ----- Pietrangelo 4
Muzzin 70 ---- Martinez ---


and before you LOL NERD STATS your response, understand that the Knights are one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year, while the Leafs are one of the best for the 2nd year running.

It's not Nerd Stats that are the problem, it's the common users who are attempting to use them who do so incorrectly due to personal limitations, including inability to judge context, personal bias, and general inability to dive deeper into the measurements to figure out why they don't pass the gut check.

Also worth keeping in mind that the stats available to the public are generally either rudimentary or largely misleading - the truly worthwhile stats folks are bought up by actual NHL organizations and are not available to the public.


Finally, I don't know why you interpret it as an insult to the Leafs to say that our trio isn't quite as good as one of the best trios in the league.

Question - how are the metrics that you've presented calculated?

 

[zeke]

It's not Nerd Stats that are the problem, it's the common users who are attempting to use them who do so incorrectly due to personal limitations, including inability to judge context, personal bias, and general inability to dive deeper into the measurements to figure out why they don't pass the gut check.

Also worth keeping in mind that the stats available to the public are generally either rudimentary or largely misleading - the truly worthwhile stats folks are bought up by actual NHL organizations and are not available to the public.


Finally, I don't know why you interpret it as an insult to the Leafs to say that our trio isn't quite as good as one of the best trios in the league.

I could care less about any insult.

It's just wrong is all.

This is why fans like yourself just can't understand why the Leafs are among the best defensive teams in the league.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's not Nerd Stats that are the problem, it's the common users who are attempting to use them who do so incorrectly due to personal limitations, including inability to judge context, personal bias, and general inability to dive deeper into the measurements to figure out why they don't pass the gut check.

Also worth keeping in mind that the stats available to the public are generally either rudimentary or largely misleading - the truly worthwhile stats folks are bought up by actual NHL organizations and are not available to the public.


Finally, I don't know why you interpret it as an insult to the Leafs to say that our trio isn't quite as good as one of the best trios in the league.

Question - how are the metrics that you've presented calculated?

I'd easily take the Knights 3 over the Leafs 3...and Hague+Whitecloud aren't slouches either...this also largely ignores that the Knights have been down several players at various points through the season.

 

[TML1967]

wtf did Panthers offer Coyotes that made Rangers and LA back out. Uh oh. Really need the Kings or Jackets to win this.

IDK, if they are offering way more than everyone else could be good for us in the long run.
The problem with TBL, FLA and BOS is its not like they will just be gone next year.

If FLA is going to offer a guy like Lundell +, might be helpful.
Obviously, not for this years playoffs but no guarantee we will play them.

 

[Mess]

The Jakob Chychrun sweepstakes appear to be heating up.

TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger points to the Toronto Maple Leafs among many teams to 'kick tires' on the Arizona Coyotes defenceman but adds that at least five teams have "strong interest" in the 23-year-old.

"Well look, Arizona Coyotes’ defenceman Jakob Chychrun has term left on his contract and I can tell you, the Toronto Maple Leafs are among many teams who have at least kicked tires on Chychrun, but you look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ roster, how they move forward, it seems like a tough fit for the Maple Leafs to try and manoeuvre unless Kyle Dubas gets extraordinarily creative," Dreger said on Insider Trading.

"Now, sources say that the list of teams with strong interest in Chychrun includes L.A., Florida, Boston, Anaheim and the St. Louis Blues. Now, Bill Armstrong obviously has time on his side, so he is going to let this marinate a little bit more, unless he gets the four components that are needed."

Dreger: Five teams with 'strong interest' in Chychrun - TSN.ca

 

[kb]

Not even hiding the tr^lling. Shocking I tell you.....shocking.

I guess the results so far are what's gone wrong....Leafs best overall GM record, and best overall coaching record.

Anyway, I say add depth. Big moves - if needed - will be in the offseason.

 

[X66]

Will you guys please talk me off of the Zach Parise train?

I think he'd be such an awesome fit on the team...

 

[Kurtz]

I could care less about any insult.

It's just wrong is all.

This is why fans like yourself just can't understand why the Leafs are among the best defensive teams in the league.

Again, that's completely wrong. I can't speak for this imaginary fanbase that you're describing, but I can tell you why I think we're one of the best. It's a combination of reasons, largely driven by the fact that since day one, Keefe (and as we know, Babcock before him) have emphasized team defense as the top priority. It helps that we have Campbell putting in a Vezina performance this year. It helps also that our top guys - Matthews and Marner have become elite defensively, and that JT and Nylander have shown massive improvements on that end. We also added an elite shutdown C in Kampf, which is huge, especially for our pk.

But to reduce this to an argument like it's because our top 3 dmen are better than maybe the best trio in the league is a little silly.

 

[Kurtz]

I'd easily take the Knights 3 over the Leafs 3...and Hague+Whitecloud aren't slouches either...this also largely ignores that the Knights have been down several players at various points through the season.

Off course. And it's not a knock on our excellent first pairing and Muzzin to take the Vegas trio, which again, might be the best top 3 in the league, over them...

 

[ShaneFalco]

I could care less about any insult.

It's just wrong is all.

This is why fans like yourself just can't understand why the Leafs are among the best defensive teams in the league.

Best defence, best PP, best elite talent - but for some reason this team of awesomeness can't win in the playoffs

 

[showtime8]

Will you guys please talk me off of the Zach Parise train?

I think he'd be such an awesome fit on the team...

Where does he play in the line-up? I guess what would be his best fit here.

 

[X66]

Where does he play in the line-up? I guess what would be his best fit here.

Honestly I'd be happy with him on any line on the Left side.

Parise-Matthews-Marner
Parise-Tavares-Nylander
Parise-Kampf-Kase
Parise-Spezza-Simmonds

If I had to make a full roster

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Parise-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase
Egnvall-Kerfoot-Spezza
Simmonds

 

[Fogelhund]

The Jakob Chychrun sweepstakes appear to be heating up.

TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger points to the Toronto Maple Leafs among many teams to 'kick tires' on the Arizona Coyotes defenceman but adds that at least five teams have "strong interest" in the 23-year-old.

"Well look, Arizona Coyotes’ defenceman Jakob Chychrun has term left on his contract and I can tell you, the Toronto Maple Leafs are among many teams who have at least kicked tires on Chychrun, but you look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ roster, how they move forward, it seems like a tough fit for the Maple Leafs to try and manoeuvre unless Kyle Dubas gets extraordinarily creative," Dreger said on Insider Trading.

"Now, sources say that the list of teams with strong interest in Chychrun includes L.A., Florida, Boston, Anaheim and the St. Louis Blues. Now, Bill Armstrong obviously has time on his side, so he is going to let this marinate a little bit more, unless he gets the four components that are needed."

Dreger: Five teams with 'strong interest' in Chychrun - TSN.ca

The only way this fits long-term, is moving Muzzin. I like Chychrun, but we'd lose the little physicality that we have on the back end. I think we'd need to bring in a guy like Manson, and find a way to resign him next year. It would take some hoops to accomplish that, but it's not impossible.

Ritchie, Holl, Dermott, Muzzin and Mrazek would have to go. Backup goalies at $1 Mil. You'd have $2.5 mil left to spend on a LW... whether that is keeping Mikeheyev, or trading for a guy like Crouse, and hoping $2.5 mil gets it done... (Somehow I think he'd look for more). That leaves above $3 mil to extend Manson, which should be his worth now.

 

[Kiwi]

When Seversons current contract is up, the Leafs are projected to have 19M of cap space. Obviously it will be less by then but... they can re-sign him. You can always make it work. So many things that can happen until then. And if we can't re-sign him, we can only hope we were succesful in the playoffs with a top end defensive core.

Chychrun is fine as well, but you're going to pay more than that for him.

We need to resign Matthews and Nylander, I doubt were getting much change out of 19M if I'm being honest

Liljegren+Holmberg + 1st is getting pretty close the the ask for Chychrun, you're better off overpaying for him because you get 4 cheap playoff runs out of him before he needs a payrise

 

[Scion]

they currently rank #4 in expected goals against per 60 minutes, in all situations. one of the very best in the league.

At 5v5 they rank #10, which is not quite as good but still very good - but importantly, that 10th rank is closer to 2nd overall (.16 back), and much closer to 4th overall (.10 back), than it is to middle of the pack (.17 ahead of 16th, .18 ahead of 17th).

And the PK defense is ranked 6th.

The leafs are very good defensively.

I was basing my post off of these tweets from Jfresh which are about 10 days outdated now.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I could care less about any insult.

It's just wrong is all.

This is why fans like yourself just can't understand why the Leafs are among the best defensive teams in the league.

You won't be getting a broad understanding of any regular success until it translates to a deep playoff run.

 

[Scion]

I realize now that I read this tweet wrong and being near the bottom is good. Zeke is right, the Leafs defense is actually quite good.

 

[NinjaKick]

Will you guys please talk me off of the Zach Parise train?

I think he'd be such an awesome fit on the team...

Parise is a spark plug type player (works hard every shift and brings energy). I'm all for it.

 

[Kurtz]

I realize now that I read this tweet wrong and being near the bottom is good. Zeke is right, the Leafs defense is actually quite good.

I don't know how it's calculated, but worth noting that looking at the numbers, we're one tenth of one percent point from being decidedly middle of the pack in that selection criteria.

Given that we allowed 12 goals in the 3 games since that chart was posted, I wouldn't be surprised if a shift of a tenth of a percentage point has indeed already occurred.

 

[123offtheglass]

Will you guys please talk me off of the Zach Parise train?

I think he'd be such an awesome fit on the team...

Parise is a spark plug type player (works hard every shift and brings energy). I'm all for it.

Even though Leafs already have solid forward depth, he's a guy I'd love for them to add at the deadline.

I think he'd be a great fit, certainly not a "soft" player.

One thing though, he does have performance bonuses built into his contract; not sure what they are but it could maybe affect them cap-wise next season?

 

[X66]

Even though Leafs already have solid forward depth, he's a guy I'd love for them to add at the deadline.

I think he'd be a great fit, certainly not a "soft" player.

Parise is a spark plug type player (works hard every shift and brings energy). I'm all for it.

And he's only at 750k