GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART IV

[Havoc]

I'd be careful what you wish for. Say what you want about Muzzin, but he plays tough minutes. Sandin is dominating easy minutes and as we've seen with Dermott that doesn't always translate in the top 4.

I'd like to see Muzzin with a better partner than Holl before I conclude that he is finished.

+1

Sandins not even close to being ready for Muzzins spot.

 

[Knies iT]

Why are people in a rush to deal Kerfoot? He’s developed into a solid top six winger who is affordable given our cap situation. He’s a player I’m not moving that’s for sure.

Because next year he's a rental.

He's proven to be great value and i'd keep him for the run this season, but if he ends up posting 50+ points it would be a great sell high opportunity in the summer. There aren't many other expendable trade chips that can be internally replaced.

Both Amirov and Robertson will be 21 next fall.

 

[Fogelhund]

Because next year he's a rental.

He's proven to be great value and i'd keep him for the run this season, but if he ends up posting 50+ points it would be a great sell high opportunity in the summer. There aren't many other expendable trade chips that can be internally replaced.

Both Amirov and Robertson will be 21 next fall.

You think we should move Kerfoot, hoping that one of Amirov, or Robertson can replace him?

Robertson has played TWO games this year, and Amriov has 13 games this year. But somehow, you believe they are ready to replace Kerfoot? Based on what, beyond just hopes???

 

[Kiwi]

I'd be careful what you wish for. Say what you want about Muzzin, but he plays tough minutes. Sandin is dominating easy minutes and as we've seen with Dermott that doesn't always translate in the top 4.

I'd like to see Muzzin with a better partner than Holl before I conclude that he is finished.

That contract has to much time on it to risk hanging onto it imo

The longer you have it the more obvious it becomes, I'd rather ditch it a year to early than a year to late

I wouldn’t be happy or upset if Muzzin were to be moved. This would take cap gymnastics but if we had Muzzin and Liljegren as our third pair, I’d be very happy about that. Sandin has looked really good and will only get better, he’s someone who can play on that second pair and ease up minutes from Muzzin.

Muzzin makes to much to play on the third pair, that isn't going to work cap wise

 

[TMLAM34]

That contract has to much time on it to risk hanging onto it imo

The longer you have it the more obvious it becomes, I'd rather ditch it a year to early than a year to late




Muzzin makes to much to play on the third pair, that isn't going to work cap wise

Muzzin has 2 more years remaining, neither Sandin or Liljegren are going to break the bank this off-season. You can definitely make it work for a year or two.

 

[Dreakmur]

To me it’s not even Holl who’s the problem. Muzzin looks like an absolute plug out there and I think Holl’s just been the scape goat

Muzzin is the new problem, sure. Holl has always been a 3rd pair guy being carried by an elite partner. Now that Muzzin is no longer an elite partner, they both get exposed.

 

[Stephen]

Muzzin has 2 more years remaining, neither Sandin or Liljegren are going to break the bank this off-season. You can definitely make it work for a year or two.

In order to keep the Leafs on an upward trajectory, Dubas will need to get creative and get rid of Muzzin's cap this summer. Turn that money towards re-signing Campbell and some of it towards a replacement on defense who can play those heavy physical situations and let Sandin Liljegren grow and take on more of the transition game aspects.

 

[Knies iT]

You think we should move Kerfoot, hoping that one of Amirov, or Robertson can replace him?

Robertson has played TWO games this year, and Amriov has 13 games this year. But somehow, you believe they are ready to replace Kerfoot? Based on what, beyond just hopes???

Kerfoot alleviates 3.5m in cap, as well as 1.7m from Mikheyev being a UFA. That is over >5m in cap savings for a potential LW upgrade + whatever assets you recoup from selling high after a career year.

Amirov and Robertson will need roster spots soon and they are not going to be developed on the 4th line so where do you suggest they break in? People said the same thing about Kapanen and Johnsson replacing JVR. I’m not overly worried about Kerfoot’s impact being irreplaceable and I’d rather not lose another own rental for nothing.

 

[Scion]

That contract has to much time on it to risk hanging onto it imo

The longer you have it the more obvious it becomes, I'd rather ditch it a year to early than a year to late




Muzzin makes to much to play on the third pair, that isn't going to work cap wise

I can get behind moving Muzzin in the offseason, but that is a tough move to make in season. Additionally, you have to have a replacement lined up for Muzzin otherwise you are just making the team weaker.

 

[4thline]

Kerfoot alleviates 3.5m in cap, as well as 1.7m from Mikheyev being a UFA. That is over >5m in cap savings for a potential LW upgrade + whatever assets you recoup from selling high after a career year.

So to alleviate cap we're going to liquidate a good value contract and concentrate more money to fill the same position, and likely end up with no better of player?

If someone knocks our socks off sure, Kerfoot's not untouchable. But we're not going to go into the offseason looking to move him.

Kase will be the interesting one. QO is low, but his arb award could be high... have to hope that there's a good enough relationship that he respects that his choice is either take 1.5x1 to stay with his buddy so they can go to UFA else where, or have his rights traded/ sign and offersheet.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Muzzin comments make it even more obvious we should be in on these Jakob trade talks.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I can get behind moving Muzzin in the offseason, but that is a tough move to make in season. Additionally, you have to have a replacement lined up for Muzzin otherwise you are just making the team weaker.

Not many good ones out there that make sense financially.

Plus Muzzin still has a full NTC next year. In his last year, he has a 10 team no trade list. More likely we move him then. That gives Sandin another year to develop without needing to handle 23 minutes a night, and I think next year is a good time to give Liljegren a chance for serious minutes with Muzzin.

That also gives Rubins and Kral some time to develop as cheaper bottom pairing options for 2023-2024 when we would need to replace Sandin after he steps into the top 4 (and both would require waivers at that time too). I guess Kokkonen could also be in that mix as well.

 

[Knies iT]

So to alleviate cap we're going to liquidate a good value contract and concentrate more money to fill the same position, and likely end up with no better of player?

If someone knocks our socks off sure, Kerfoot's not untouchable. But we're not going to go into the offseason looking to move him.

Kase will be the interesting one. QO is low, but his arb award would be high... have to hope that there's a good enough relationship that he respects that his choice is either take 1.5x1 to stay with his buddy so they can go to UFA else where, or have his rights traded/ sign and offersheet.

"Concentrate more money...end up with no better of a player". Even if you think Kerfoot is underpaid, he's not a 5m+ player, which is the cap savings you would have with Mikheyev walking (assuming other moves involving Mrazek/Holl/etc. are made to cover raises).

RE Kase - I don't see any situation where Kase signs another deal below 1.5m. Dreger speculates 3.2-4m dollar range for a Kase extension and he probably signs on the lower end of that assuming he stays healthy. Are you getting that contract done without moving Kerfoot? Ritchie would have to go and he has negative value at the moment.

I like Kerfoot and recognize his value for this cup run. But this summer, with 1 year left on his deal, i'd capitalize on a career year to replenish futures, use his money to retain Kase and/or make a FA addition, and replace his impact by committee (UFA signing + internal prospects).

Unless you intend on re-signing Kerfoot to a raise, it's a no brainer in my mind.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

"Concentrate more money...end up with no better of a player". Even if you think Kerfoot is underpaid, he's not a 5m+ player, which is the cap savings you would have with Mikheyev walking (assuming other moves involving Mrazek/Holl/etc. are made to cover raises).

RE Kase - I don't see any situation where Kase signs another deal below 1.5m. Dreger speculates 3.2-4m dollar range for a Kase extension and he probably signs on the lower end of that assuming he stays healthy. Are you getting that contract done without moving Kerfoot? Ritchie would have to go and he has negative value at the moment.

I like Kerfoot and recognize his value for this cup run. But this summer, with 1 year left on his deal, i'd capitalize on a career year to replenish futures, use his money to retain Kase + make a FA addition, and replace his impact by committee (UFA signing + internal prospects).

Unless you intend on re-signing Kerfoot to a raise, it's a no brainer in my mind.

I'm not pro- trade Kerfoot, I want him here for his breakout years..... but I see your logic.

Reading between the lines, Kase is more significant to the bottom 6 than Kerfoot is to the top 6. Kase is pretty much a flawless third liner. I definitely want that Kampf/Kase duo here long term.

The big 4 will be perfectly fine turning another cheap Bunting type signing into a household name hence why it's more important to keep Kase to maintain adequate depth. I'm not too fond of Kerfoot when they try to use him as a jack of all trades in the bottom 6.

 

[4thline]

"Concentrate more money...end up with no better of a player". Even if you think Kerfoot is underpaid, he's not a 5m+ player, which is the cap savings you would have with Mikheyev walking (assuming other moves involving Mrazek/Holl/etc. are made to cover raises).

RE Kase - I don't see any situation where Kase signs another deal below 1.5m. Dreger speculates 3.2-4m dollar range for a Kase extension, which is fair for his current pace assuming he stays healthy. Are you getting that contract done without moving Kerfoot? Ritchie would have to go and he has negative value at the moment.

That's his (Kase) choice. Either he values playing with Kampf in the environment that gave him a shot to get his career back or not. If not, trade his rights. Ritchie will be traded or bought out at this point. We won't be spending 10m on goaltending. If Jack re-signs for starter money Mrazek will be moved and replaced with a straight back up.

The Kerfoot we're seeing this year is a 5m player. Complementary top 6 LW that is giving us borderline 1st line level production w/out PP time, while being a 2min a night pk on one of the leagues best PK's. With the cap rising again we're not getting a major upgrade for 5 mil.

Which of this list is a material upgrade signing for 5 or less? Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Edit- not to mention- moving him to bring in a more expensive LW with more term with either/both A. block our LW prospects for longer, B. cost more in assets (depending if it's trade or UFA

 

[Knies iT]

That's his (Kase) choice. Either he values playing with Kampf in the environment that gave him a shot to get his career back or not. If not, trade his rights. Ritchie will be traded or bought out at this point. We won't be spending 10m on goaltending. If Jack re-signs for starter money Mrazek will be moved and replaced with a straight back up.

The Kerfoot we're seeing this year is a 5m player. Complementary top 6 LW that is giving us borderline 1st line level production w/out PP time, while being a 2min a night pk on one of the leagues best PK's. With the cap rising again we're not getting a major upgrade for 5 mil.

Which of this list is a material upgrade signing for 5 or less? Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Agreed but Kase can still sign another fair value "show me" deal without sacrificing 50% of his market value.

• Mrazek being traded is the bare minimum requirement to retain Campbell (1.65 + 3.8 = 5.45m). That's not useable cap elsewhere.
• A rumoured Holl/Dermott in-season trade for futures covers raises to Sandin/Liljegren.
• Cap increase + Kessel's retention will cover 90%+ of Rielly's raise.

Then you're left with Mikheyev's 1.65m when he walks. That's not enough to retain Kase, but with Kerfoot gone (~5.2m):

• Kase @ 2.5-3.2m + cheaper UFA (e.g. Paul, Namestnikov, Mikheyev, Jarnkrok, etc.) @2-2.7m

OR

• Up to 5.2m UFA: Domi, Niederreiter, Giordano, Murphy, etc.

Also trading Ritchie would allow you to dip into a higher tier of UFAs in Rust, Rackell, etc.

 

[4thline]

Agreed but Kase can still sign another fair value "show me" deal without sacrificing 50% of his market value.

• Mrazek being traded is the bare minimum requirement to retain Campbell (1.65 + 3.8 = 5.45m). That's not useable cap elsewhere.
• A rumoured Holl/Dermott in-season trade for futures covers raises to Sandin/Liljegren.
• Cap increase + Kessel's retention will cover 90%+ of Rielly's raise.

Then you're left with Mikheyev's 1.65m when he walks. That's not enough to retain Kase, but with Kerfoot gone (~5.2m):

• Kase @ 2.5-3.2m + cheaper UFA (e.g. Paul, Namestnikov, Mikheyev, Jarnkrok, etc.) @2-2.7m

OR

• Up to 5.2m UFA: Domi, Niederreiter, Giordano, Murphy, etc.

Also trading Ritchie would allow you to dip into a higher tier of UFAs in Rust, Rackell, etc.

Trying to line up dollars move for move is unnecessarily confusing way to do things IMO. Almost always ends up having slippage due to roster spots. Better to set some assumptions and draw down a balance.

Next year
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
xxx-Kampf-xxx
xxx-xxx-Simmonds
xxx

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Sandin-Dermott
xxx

Campbell
xxxx

Soup signed at 6x5
Ritchie bought out
Sandin and Liljgen signed at a combined 2.5 x 2
Mrazek and Holl traded for futures

=6.97m to fill in the gaps

Barring a Leaf cup this season, I wouldn't bet against Clifford and Spezz taking 4LW, and 13F for a combined 1.6m

5.37 left for 3LW/RW, 4C, 7D, backup. If we're paying Campbell as a true starter, go with a true backup (a lot of hockey to play, but don't bet against Woll) at backup money (1m).

4.37 left for 3LW/RW 4C, 7D.
Call it 900k each for 4C/7D

2.57 left for 3LW and 3RW. Engvall and Kase still not signed. We could go with 1 at 1.5 + a rookie ex. Engvall + Steeves, Robby + Kase, but not both RFA's. If Kase is worth 3+ and won't take less, we're looking at a choice between him and Kerfoot with no higher dollar replacement for either.
You could argue for 5m to Campbell and 8ook to Woll to save 1.2 to allocate to the 3rd line, which would let us re-sign Kase at ~3 AND keep Kerfoot and go with rook LW, but that's a long shot IMO. Also another ~800k if one of the 4C or Spezza is left out.

So somewhere between 2.6 and 4.6 for 3RW and LW.

 

[Knies iT]

2.57 left for 3LW and 4RW. Engvall and Kase still not signed. We could go with 1 at 1.5 + a rookie ex. Engvall + Steeves, Robby + Kase, but not both RFA's. If Kase is worth 3+ and won't take less, we're looking at a choice between him and Kerfoot with no higher dollar replacement for either.
You'd argue for 5m to Campbell and 8ook to Woll to save 1.2 to allocate to the 3rd line, which would let us re-sign Kase at ~3 AND keep Kerfoot and go with rook LW, but that's a long shot IMO

2.57m left with Kerfoot accounted for on the cap, right? Without Kerfoot, that's 6m+ that can be distributed between a Kase raise in the 3m range and a 3m UFA addition. From an asset management POV:

• Kase (~3m) + 3m UFA + futures from trade (e.g. 2x 2nds)

vs.

• Kerfoot + 2.5m cap space

My stance really just comes down to capturing assets for a soon-to-be rental in Kerfoot, especially since I view Kase as a similar player who is relatively cost controlled. Kerf's not what makes that 2nd line elite and Tavares has made a career out of propping up guys just like this.

I have Robertson as a regular next season and Steeves in a 4th line rotation. If Amirov does not make the team, you're looking at an NHL debut for a top 15 pick at age 22, so I wouldn't write off his chances either.

 

[Stephen]

Anthony Stolarz might be a sleeper goalie Toronto can look at bringing in next year as a backup or platoon. One extra year left on his contract, 27 years old, 6'6" giant and has been great with the Anaheim Ducks. Making $925,000 and has posted a 2.22 GAA, .931% and 6 wins in 11 games. Ducks have Gibson as their incumbent starter and Lucas Dostal is making his debut tonight. Might be a guy!

 

[4thline]

2.57m left with Kerfoot accounted for on the cap, right? Without Kerfoot, that's 6m+ that can be distributed between a Kase raise in the 3m range and a 3m UFA addition. From an asset management POV:

• Kase (~3m) + 3m UFA + futures from trade (e.g. 2x 2nds)

vs.

• Kerfoot + 2.5m cap space

My stance really just comes down to capturing assets for a soon-to-be rental in Kerfoot, especially since I view Kase as a similar player who is relatively cost controlled and . Kerf's not what makes that 2nd line elite and Tavares has made a career out of propping up guys just like this.

I have Robertson as a regular next season and Steeves in a 4th line rotation. If Amirov does not make the team, you're looking at an NHL debut for a top 15 pick at age 22, so I wouldn't write off his chances either.

Not quite accurate
A. you're going from 2.57 for 3LW,3RW, to 6.07m for 2 LW, 3LW, 3RW. Gotta backfill Kerfoot. So even if you assume/gift that spot to Robertson/Amirov you're looking at 2.1-2.2 for your UFA 2LW.

B. You're bottom scenario is missing the Kase trade return. If they're similar players should be comparable no? In either case (heh) there's a trade return, in neither case there's a 5m LW coming in.

It could work. But I honestly don't see a ~2m LW I love in our top 6 (without assuming a pretty major steal), and I really enjoy hypothetical bargain hunting.

But honestly, with a 21 man roster could do Kase at 2.5 x 1 and Robby at 3LW.

 

[Knies iT]

Not quite accurate
A. you're going from 2.57 for 3LW,3RW, to 6.07m for 2 LW, 3LW, 3RW. Gotta backfill Kerfoot. So even if you assume/gift that spot to Robertson/Amirov you're looking at 2.1-2.2 for your UFA 2LW.

B. You're bottom scenario is missing the Kase trade return. If they're similar players should be comparable no? In either case (heh) there's a trade return, in neither case there's a 5m LW coming in.

It could work. But I honestly don't see a ~2m LW I love in our top 6 (without assuming a pretty major steal), and I really enjoy hypothetical bargain hunting.

But honestly, with a 21 man roster could do Kase at 2.5 x 1 and Robby at 3LW.

Right but the contract values would be different.

Kase in the 3m range comes with term. You likely get 2-3 years at minimum for that cap hit. Kase is the buy-low opportunity. If he finishes this year healthy, after the leafs medical team said he's the healthiest he's been in his career, you won't find another bargain that can produce a career .5PPG who's younger and cheaper than Kerfoot.

Kase @ 3 years > Kerfoot @ 1yr

Not to mention Kerfoot's trade return would be higher after a career year with no injury history concerns. Trade Kase and keep Kerfoot for only 1 year (have neither by next summer), or trade Kerfoot for a better return and keep Kase with more term.

 

[Legion34]

Not many good ones out there that make sense financially.

Plus Muzzin still has a full NTC next year. In his last year, he has a 10 team no trade list. More likely we move him then. That gives Sandin another year to develop without needing to handle 23 minutes a night, and I think next year is a good time to give Liljegren a chance for serious minutes with Muzzin.

That also gives Rubins and Kral some time to develop as cheaper bottom pairing options for 2023-2024 when we would need to replace Sandin after he steps into the top 4 (and both would require waivers at that time too). I guess Kokkonen could also be in that mix as well.

yep this is why I keep going back to a

rielly. Brodie.
Gio.
Muzz

core with probably sanding and Lilly taking up those spots.

 

[Legion34]

Muzzin comments make it even more obvious we should be in on these Jakob trade talks.

what comments?

 

[Fogelhund]

Kerfoot alleviates 3.5m in cap, as well as 1.7m from Mikheyev being a UFA. That is over >5m in cap savings for a potential LW upgrade + whatever assets you recoup from selling high after a career year.

Amirov and Robertson will need roster spots soon and they are not going to be developed on the 4th line so where do you suggest they break in? People said the same thing about Kapanen and Johnsson replacing JVR. I’m not overly worried about Kerfoot’s impact being irreplaceable and I’d rather not lose another own rental for nothing.

They don't NEED roster spots, they NEED to play games, and prove they are ready, earn the spot. Neither have done that yet.

You mention Kapanen and Johnsson as examples... yet Kapanen had been almost PPG in the AHL for two seasons and Johnsson also played two seasons in the AHL, being PPG the final season, this is in addition to THREE full SHL seasons. Neither Amirov, nor Robertson have that kind of seasoning.

I'm not tied to Kerfoot, yet you are actively calling for players that haven't proven to be ready, and don't have the games behind them to show they are ready.

"IF" these guys can adequately replace Kerfoot at some point, earn the spot, sure... I'm hardly tied to Kerfoot,,, but Kerfoot is pacing for 60 points this year... I mean, you really think we can easily replace that with a $5 mil guy..less a cap minimum?

 

[Knies iT]

They don't NEED roster spots, they NEED to play games, and prove they are ready, earn the spot. Neither have done that yet.

You mention Kapanen and Johnsson as examples... yet Kapanen had been almost PPG in the AHL for two seasons and Johnsson also played two seasons in the AHL, being PPG the final season, this is in addition to THREE full SHL seasons. Neither Amirov, nor Robertson have that kind of seasoning.

I'm not tied to Kerfoot, yet you are actively calling for players that haven't proven to be ready, and don't have the games behind them to show they are ready.

"IF" these guys can adequately replace Kerfoot at some point, earn the spot, sure... I'm hardly tied to Kerfoot,,, but Kerfoot is pacing for 60 points this year... I mean, you really think we can easily replace that with a $5 mil guy..less a cap minimum?

Did you even read the above exchange? I never said Robertson or Amirov would be direct replacements for Kerfoot, I mentioned their age and NHL eta when talking about forward depth.

The entire string out posts clearly outlines moving Kerfoot for a UFA replacement and Kase re-signing.