Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[Dekes For Days]

There is only one pick that a player is allowed to be selected at and everything else is wrong, which is why all of the pre-draft rankings rank him at the exact same pic... Oh wait...

 

[Coaches Coroner]

The Leafs having him in the top 15 always seemed like B.S., just a way to help ease the pain of losing the 1st for dumping Mrazek.
I'm sure they fooled some but it was pretty apparent to many others.

I doubt they had him top 15, but it's very funny some people think themselves experts on the draft because they read a few amateur and media lists.
People boo hooing the pick before he plays a second of hockey post-draft are fooling themselves into thinking they "know better" because a few names they read a week before the draft went before 38.

 

[Beaumaris]

Though if teams cared about public scouting assessments they wouldn't hire their own internal ones

Exactly.

 

[Mess]

The Leafs having him in the top 15 always seemed like B.S., just a way to help ease the pain of losing the 1st for dumping Mrazek.
I'm sure they fooled some but it was pretty apparent to many others.

Agreed

Check this out straight from Dubas himself.



So some people want to believe Leafs had Minten ranked top 15, to provide cover for the Mrazek mistake and trading another 1st round pick, when Dubas himself said he moved back at #25 when the real player he wanted wouldn't be there so he made the trade at that time.

Kind of contradicts that top 15 ranking nonsense, if he really wanted Minten badly he would have taken him at #25, and not by trading back to #38 don't you think?

According to all scouting reports even taking him at #38 was a reach at that point.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

There is only one pick that a player is allowed to be selected at and everything else is wrong, which is why all of the pre-draft rankings rank him at the exact same pic... Oh wait...

The ones done by amateur bloggers? Or Bob Mac's list that has him at 47 and Bob says there's little separating guys from the mid 20s into the 40s. I know those are the only sources you have because you for sure haven't seen a minute of hockey out of 90% of these players.

I guess my problem is you have people saying they don't know or they don't mind the pick, then we have a group of people shrieking and melting down about what a disaster the pick is...despite having access to no more information, and often times less information, than the people they are screaming at for being "wrong" because they aren't having a hissy fit over the pick.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Agreed

Check this out straight from Dubas himself.



So some people want to believe Leafs had Minten ranked top 15, to provide cover for the Mrazek mistake and trading another 1st round pick, when Dubas himself said he moved back at #25 when the real player he wanted wouldn't be there so he made the trade at that time.

Kind of contradicts that top 15 ranking nonsense, if he really wanted Minten badly, by trading back to #38 don't you think?

It's not actually "straight from Dubas", it's a guy tweeting what he says Dubas apparently said, but not verbatim even .
I guess the problem is you're arguing against a position that no one here has really taken. One guy tweeted that and it was posted in response to your dubious links and "sources" (of which, like the Mckenzie list, you selectively use, ignoring a lot of context to the list and what Mac thinks about the draft class).

It's apparent you are motivated to not only ignore, but actively attempt to discredit any source or information that doesn't line up with your doomer view of this particular pick.

I think those who are mad about the pick, would be mad no matter who they took...they'd find a way to hate it and find any random alternative that they read about (but have not seen) a week before the draft on a blog to be superior.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Agreed

Check this out straight from Dubas himself.



So some people want to believe Leafs had Minten ranked top 15, to provide cover for the Mrazek mistake and trading another 1st round pick, when Dubas himself said he moved back at #25 when the real player he wanted wouldn't be there so he made the trade at that time.

Kind of contradicts that top 15 ranking nonsense, if he really wanted Minten badly, by trading back to #38 don't you think?

According to all scouting reports even taking him at #38 was a reach at that point.

I doubt the top 15 stuff is true, but the Mrazek trade doesn't need cover. They moved back 13 spots to dump a contract and got a very similar player to what they would have drafted at 25 with the players that were available at 25 - since the guy they thought was better than those players available, was gone.

Would they have drafted Minten at 25 given the other guy they wanted was gone? Perhaps.

 

[Stephen]

Agreed

Check this out straight from Dubas himself.



So some people want to believe Leafs had Minten ranked top 15, to provide cover for the Mrazek mistake and trading another 1st round pick, when Dubas himself said he moved back at #25 when the real player he wanted wouldn't be there so he made the trade at that time.

Kind of contradicts that top 15 ranking nonsense, if he really wanted Minten badly he would have taken him at #25, and not by trading back to #38 don't you think?

According to all scouting reports even taking him at #38 was a reach at that point.

If the player the Leafs truly wanted was someone like Yurov or Ohgren that required a trade up to acquire - and they felt strongly enough that either of those players would have been a big impact player- I would prefer the decisive trade up to make it happen and worry about Mrazek disposal some other way.

It really depends on what the career delta is between a Minten and the guy they really wanted at 25. If it's a first liner to third liner, that's the final price of the Mrzaek disposal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The ones done by amateur bloggers? Or Bob Mac's list that has him at 47 and Bob says there's little separating guys from the mid 20s into the 40s.

I thought the /s in my post was a bit more clear.

I agree, there obviously wasn't much separation in prospect quality from mid 20s-40s. Which is why we did the trade.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Would they have drafted Minten at 25 given the other guy they wanted was gone? Perhaps.

Maybe?

"You go in with three picks, and trading back yesterday the 13 slots, we were obviously thrilled that Minten was still there when we picked at #38. In our opinion, that couldn’t have worked out better for us with what we were trying to achieve there. That is a little bit of fortune." - Kyle Dubas

Interpret the quote above as you will.

 

[kb]

What is even more amazing that posters complain about pro poor scouting because the didn't draft a poster's favourites that they decided were their favourites by watching one or 2 30 second youtube clips and love festing with others who did the same.

What makes a random poster qualified to make judgements on who is or is not a good scout, or a good scouting team?

 

[notbias]

Agreed

Check this out straight from Dubas himself.



So some people want to believe Leafs had Minten ranked top 15, to provide cover for the Mrazek mistake and trading another 1st round pick, when Dubas himself said he moved back at #25 when the real player he wanted wouldn't be there so he made the trade at that time.

Kind of contradicts that top 15 ranking nonsense, if he really wanted Minten badly he would have taken him at #25, and not by trading back to #38 don't you think?

According to all scouting reports even taking him at #38 was a reach at that point.

Two things can be true, they thought someone they had top 15 would be available later on, and the player they wanted at #25 was no longer available, maybe they had this player ranked in the top 5 or 10.

Trading back to gain value elsewhere and still getting your guy is good drafting, just because you can't comprehend this concept does not make it false.

All reports may be wrong and none of us have inside knowledge so we don't know, but both things can be true.

Your line of thinking is how we ended up with Korshkov

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Baffles me that some scouts are so bad... I mean if this mystery pick works out for them - great they'll prove me wrong. But we'll regret passing on Chelsey, Sykora, Hutson, Warren - all 4 of who I wanted badly

Chesley was taken at 37.

 

[Stephen]

Two things can be true, they thought someone they had top 15 would be available later on, and the player they wanted at #25 was no longer available, maybe they had this player ranked in the top 5 or 10.

Trading back to gain value elsewhere and still getting your guy is good drafting, just because you can't comprehend this concept does not make it false.

All reports may be wrong and none of us have inside knowledge so we don't know, but both things can be true.

Your line of thinking is how we ended up with Korshkov

Hypothetically speaking, if your team is sitting with the 25 pick and there's a remote chance a top 5 pick could potentially be sliding to you, isn't the best course of action to proactively trade up and pay the price of potentially drafting a prospect who could one day give you a Marner, Rielly type impact as a top 5 pick? It would see like you want that big fish instead of potentially trading down and ending up with a grab bag of Dermott, Timashov, Dzierkals and Bracco, to reference what they did in 2015.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Hypothetically speaking, if your team is sitting with the 25 pick and there's a remote chance a top 5 pick could potentially be sliding to you, isn't the best course of action to proactively trade up and pay the price of potentially drafting a prospect who could one day give you a Marner, Rielly type impact as a top 5 pick?

There was no Marner/Rielly type impact player falling to us, and if, hypothetically speaking, there was, why would the team we're trading with trade that pick?

 

[Stephen]

There was no Marner/Rielly type impact player falling to us, and if, hypothetically speaking, there was, why would the team we're trading with trade that pick?

I'm just saying if the Leafs felt there was a top 5 worthy pick sliding towards them in a hypothetical situation, why would they not proactively trade up to ensure they have that special top 5 worthy pick and passively wait for such an opportunity to slip by? Doesn't. Make. Sense.

 

[Mess]

If the player the Leafs truly wanted was someone like Yurov or Ohgren that required a trade up to acquire - and they felt strongly enough that either of those players would have been a big impact player- I would prefer the decisive trade up to make it happen and worry about Mrazek disposal some other way.

It really depends on what the career delta is between a Minten and the guy they really wanted at 25. If it's a first liner to third liner, that's the final price of the Mrzaek disposal.

Liam Ohgren is the player I was really hoping would have been there for the Leafs and while watching the draft it looked like Leafs draft table action picked up after he was taken. #19 to Minny.

This was not considered a very strong draft class overall, and there were a couple of significant tier player break drop-offs by the time the Leafs were going to pick at #25 originally.

I support your idea 100% of trading up to get your guy, particularly when the higher end talent is limited in this draft class to begin with.. The fact this was the Covid draft with a lot of NA players missing entire years of development as CHL rinks sat idle only clouded this draft class further. Minten was certainly a surprise day 2 pick even at #38 by the draft hosts on TV, and certainly by Leaf nation draft junkie fans that follow this closely as no one had him on their radar this early, with him ranked to go by professional scouting agencies around round #3 draft capital.

What makes his selection even more clouded was, he played in Kamloops with the CHL player of the year Logan Stankoven (59 games 45-59-104 points) whom we all just saw help Canada to gold at the recent WJC.. When you have a dominate CHL junior player on a team everything revolves around him offensively and the others get lost in the shuffle, and their offensive stats are skewed in the process. He also had 17 goals in 17 playoff games (including 3 hattricks in the WHL playoffs) and 31 points carrying Blazer deep post season. With him likely turning pro and heading to Dallas it will be interesting what happens in Kamloops without him. Will a player like Minten step up to help fill the loss or will the whole team take a step back having lost their offensive star which is often the case in junior hockey.

 

[Mess]

I'm just saying if the Leafs felt there was a top 5 worthy pick sliding towards them in a hypothetical situation, why would they not proactively trade up to ensure they have that special top 5 worthy pick and passively wait for such an opportunity to slip by? Doesn't. Make. Sense.

Danila Yurov the player you mentioned earlier ....

One of the major storylines to follow will be how Russian prospects will be dealt with by the 32 NHL clubs. The war with Ukraine and resulting sanctions have some NHL clubs unsure of how to proceed with Russian prospects, especially those who are playing and living in Russia.

Some scouts said they’re awaiting direction from ownership and/or management on policy or guidelines for drafting Russian players. Some teams may proceed as they usually do, but there is a sense some others may shy away from taking Russians. Mind you, there seems to be a distinction being made between Russians who are already playing in North America versus the Russians playing in Russia.

It was more difficult to get consensus rankings on the Russians this year because not all teams are ranking Russians as they have in the past. Some NHL clubs have created a separate list of Russian prospects. Some teams have factored in a more emphatic “Russian factor” in their rankings, while still other teams have ranked all players, including Russians, based purely on hockey-playing ability.

Two of the three Russians ranked in TSN’s Top 32 — forward Danila Yurov at No. 14 and forward Ivan Miroshnichenko at No. 19 — are wild cards of sorts. Saginaw’s Mintyukov, at No. 12, is not viewed with the same uncertainty. Since he didn’t play big minutes in the KHL, Yurov was perhaps a tougher read for the scouts, but he has been a Top 10 or thereabouts prospect most of the year.

Bob McKenzie's Final 2022 Draft Ranking - TSN.ca

It’s a photo finish for the No. 1 spot on TSN’s 2022 NHL Draft Final Ranking and, by the slimmest of margins, it’s Juraj Slafkovsky over Shane Wright.

www.tsn.ca

He went pick #24 one spot prior to Leafs picking originally at #25.

 

[notbias]

Hypothetically speaking, if your team is sitting with the 25 pick and there's a remote chance a top 5 pick could potentially be sliding to you, isn't the best course of action to proactively trade up and pay the price of potentially drafting a prospect who could one day give you a Marner, Rielly type impact as a top 5 pick? It would see like you want that big fish instead of potentially trading down and ending up with a grab bag of Dermott, Timashov, Dzierkals and Bracco, to reference what they did in 2015.

They might have seen him as #12 on their board, I am just saying they could have had someone ranked above Minten, and he went before their pick. Also, to trade up, you need a partner, for all we know, they tried.

 

[AuraSphere]

Chesley was taken at 37.

Yes and we had to move a bad contract to go spots down. We could have drafted him had we not had incompetent management.

Regardless - Sykora is already showing why he should have been a first round pick in NYR camp and the other 3 we'll see as time progresses

 

[Coaches Coroner]

If we traded up, the same people complaining now would be up in arms about trading assets away for a futures player, when our window is the next couple years and we have few assets to burn as is.

Some people want mid sized skilled wingers...that they usually complain about...others want undersized defensemen, or slight wingers that went near the end of the 2nd round.

Some are upset with the pick because the handful of random Leaf fan "draft junkies" who post here hadn't heard much about him, and the day 2 draft guys who struggle to fill every second of time and only have info on 1 in 4 players didn't talk about him a lot lmao. That rocks.

 

[Gamble9]

Funny you should say that, but in this case there is a clear and obvious connection here ..

1) Leafs lose in round #1 again.
2) Leafs decide to move on from Jack Campbell, looking for a new goalie that they believe can change that outcome.
3) Leafs decide that Matt Murray is their next guy, and look to add him via trade, but they lack the salary cap room even with retention to do so.
4) Leafs trade goalie Petr Mrazek a failed UFA signing to Chicago with their 1st round pick (25th OA) for a Chicago 2nd rounder (#38th overall) to create cap space.
5) With the #38 pick in the 2022 draft the Leafs select Fraser Minten.

Fraser Minten is the direct fallout, from another Leafs disappointing failed playoffs a few months ago forcing change,compounded by a poor USA signing Mrazek and erasing another GM mistake.

Leaf Fans that follow the entry draft closely, see a young offensive stud like forward Jiří Kulich of Czechia gets drafted by Buffalo at #28 a few spots after Leafs original pick.. Kulich goes on to be a stud at the recent WJC posting 7 games 2-6-8 points, including scoring 1 goal and 2 assists named star of the game as his vast underdog team upsets the highly favouored USA team in the quarterfinals and sends Matt Knies and his teammates packing from the tourney.

So when Leaf fans ask what does Leafs playoff failure (lost in round #1) or bad UFA signings (Mrazek) costing them their 1st & a mere 13 draft spots, or how mockingly did Minton do in the WJC (he didn't play), while other players drafted between Leafs original 1st excelled in the tournament, its all connected ,and all roads lead back to the Leafs GM.

Honestly minten is Canadiens do you think kulich would have made team canada or that Minton wouldn't have easily made the check team and been a central player this is such a large grasp

 

[Gamble9]

Perhaps on the fact that all prospects are suspects with no guarantees for success regardless of round taken. However these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff, that is why 1st round picks overall have higher success >> 2nd round picks >> 3rd round picks..

Lets use the 2015 entry draft and your example above using your late 1st round = 2nd rounder = 3rd rounder and not much difference.

The Leafs had the #24th overall pick in the 2015 draft and passed on Travis Konecny they trade back to to #29 to pick up a 2nd round (#61 OA) and then traded back out of the first to 2nd round #34 overall to pick up a 3rd round (#68 OA).

Summary Results

1st round #24 - Travis Konecny - 428 games 110 goals 161 assists 271 points 266 Pims

(only a mere - 10 spots drop) from #24 to #34

2nd round #34 - Travis Dermott - 268 games 13 goals 41 assists 54 points 100 Pims
3rd round #61 - Jeremy Bracco - 0 NHL games
3rd round #68 - Martins Dzierkals -0 NHL games.

When you apply your theory of late 1st rounder in the 20's and not much difference between #34, and 2nd and 3rd rounders to the results of previous actual draft, it sure looks like there is a significant diffference. Leafs traded back 10 spots in the draft made 2 X extra picks and the results speak for themselves about the later you go the less the odds of success become.

Sebastian ahold was availible at that pick where we took Dermot how does that change this negative your trying to write

 

[67Cup]

Re trading down: there are two elements, the trade itself and then choosing the right players on the subsequent picks. Trading down was fine. As mentioned above, they could have got Sebastian Aho. But the Leafs made one mediocre and two poor picks with the results of the trade. But you have to make the right pick when trading up also. Remember Tyler Biggs?

Find the graph of the percentage of picks who make the NHL from all draft positions over the years to see the reason a team might trade down

 

[Lightsol]

It's apparent you are motivated to not only ignore, but actively attempt to discredit any source or information that doesn't line up with your doomer view of this particular pick.

That's pretty much every argument anyone ever has with Mess in a nutshell, right there. He cherrypicks information to match his narrative and has fights with imaginary points no ome makes, that just happen to be the extreme opposite end of whatever position he's taken...