Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[Stephen]

Re trading down: there are two elements, the trade itself and then choosing the right players on the subsequent picks. Trading down was fine. As mentioned above, they could have got Sebastian Aho. But the Leafs made one mediocre and two poor picks with the results of the trade. But you have to make the right pick when trading up also. Remember Tyler Biggs?

Find the graph of the percentage of picks who make the NHL from all draft positions over the years to see the reason a team might trade down

Not a comment on Minten, because we haven't even seen him in his first camp yet - but my main concern in a traditional 3 lower picks for 1 trade down like in 2015 is the whole premise of it being based on 1) drafting in tiers and 2) the historical percentages of each pick being X value or whatever:

Each draft is different in real time. To use a more obvious example, the whole idea that a team could derive the value of a 1st overall pick any given year by averaging out the difference between say a Connor McDavid and a Nico Hischier doesn't really tell you anything.

Second, I don't really see any draft where these prospects all develop in similar tiers 5-10 years out. The job of your scouting department is to find the needle in the haystack as best they can, not interchangeably draft a bunch of similar things.

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

Typically, players you draft to be second-liners become third-liners, players you draft to be third-liners become fourth-liners, and players you draft to be fourth-liners don't make it.

Along these lines, Fraser Minten reminds me of Curtis Lazar, who has become a decent fourth line centre on his 5th NHL team.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Typically, players you draft to be second-liners become third-liners, players you draft to be third-liners become fourth-liners, and players you draft to be fourth-liners don't make it.

Along these lines, Fraser Minten reminds me of Curtis Lazar, who has become a decent fourth line centre on his 5th NHL team.

Have you actually watched him play to come up with that comparison or just pull it out of your ass?

 

[Macallan18]

What is even more amazing that posters complain about pro poor scouting because the didn't draft a poster's favourites that they decided were their favourites by watching one or 2 30 second youtube clips and love festing with others who did the same.

What makes a random poster qualified to make judgements on who is or is not a good scout, or a good scouting team?

2 or 3 beers?

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

Have you actually watched him play to come up with that comparison or just pull it out of your ass?

I watched both play, in person, albeit just a couple games. What have you watched?

To be honest, I was trying to be nice to Fraser based on their similar statistic profile. Lazar was a more impactful junior play to my eye test.

Over my years, I've seen too many absolute superstar WHL players absolutely flame out in the NHL to trust a WHL support player to become much of anything. I hope Fraser surprises me though!

 

[Knies iT]

I watched both play, in person, albeit just a couple games. What have you watched?

To be honest, I was trying to be nice to Fraser based on their similar statistic profile. Lazar was a more impactful junior play to my eye test.

Over my years, I've seen too many absolute superstar WHL players absolutely flame out in the NHL to trust a WHL support player to become much of anything. I hope Fraser surprises me though!

Poor stylistic comparison. Also writing off an entire league based on some random former busts is interesting logic.

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

Poor stylistic comparison. Also writing off an entire league based on some random former busts is interesting logic.

No comparison is perfect; again, I'm trying to be nice to Fraser by comparing him to Lazar who was a superior junior player to my eyes, and had more transferable NHL skills: size, speed, and an effective shot. I hope Minten can become what Lazar became. But when you're drafting prospective 4th line players with your first pick in drafts, your team's future is in doubt.

Quiz... who is being talked about here: "From a Leafs point of view... _______ has the potential to fill the void of a two-way centre that can put the puck in the net, hit, and play in any situation. Despite already having NHL size, speed and scoring touch, there is a lot of refinement required before _______ will be able to play at a pro level. It seems likely that he will need two more years in junior before being ready to take the next step, but it would be hard to imagine that he won’t be representing Canada at the World Juniors next season, and having the opportunity to be one of the top remaining players on the ________ next season will be a great chance to see how he manages on a team without the safety net of numerous overagers and pro draft picks. It will be his team."

Which former WHL player who made a successful NHL transition would you compare Minten to?

 

[Stephen]

No comparison is perfect; again, I'm trying to be nice to Fraser by comparing him to Lazar who was a superior junior player to my eyes, and had more transferable NHL skills: size, speed, and an effective shot. I hope Minten can become what Lazar became. But when you're drafting prospective 4th line players with your first pick in drafts, your team's future is in doubt.

Quiz... who is being talked about here: "From a Leafs point of view... _______ has the potential to fill the void of a two-way centre that can put the puck in the net, hit, and play in any situation. Despite already having NHL size, speed and scoring touch, there is a lot of refinement required before _______ will be able to play at a pro level. It seems likely that he will need two more years in junior before being ready to take the next step, but it would be hard to imagine that he won’t be representing Canada at the World Juniors next season, and having the opportunity to be one of the top remaining players on the ________ next season will be a great chance to see how he manages on a team without the safety net of numerous overagers and pro draft picks. It will be his team."

Which former WHL player who made a successful NHL transition would you compare Minten to?

The name Curtis Lazar is obviously being taken as an unfavorable comparison, but he was actually a WJC captain and drafted 17th overall way back when. Fairly bluechip in his day. I don't think Minten is on that kind of development curve in any case.

Curtis Lazar: ‘My junior career is now complete’ – Vernon Morning Star​

Vernon's Lazar captained Canada to a gold medal at the 2015 World Juniors, the country's first U20 championship since 2009.

www.vernonmorningstar.com

Maybe Chandler Stephenson?

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

The big difference is Lazar has always had choppy skating, going all the way back to his time with the Oil Kings. Minten is a much smoother skater, better fundamentals. The other tools are really too hard to compare - both had a good shot, both seemed to have good motors and enjoy the physical side of the game...hard to really remember as Lazar's time in Junior is just 1 memory at this point, and it's not very precise.

Toronto's scouts see something more than we do. Hard to be upset with a 6'1'' C that can skate, loves to hit and has a decent shot. Seems like a good fit for our org. Worried about his offensive upside, though.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Toronto's scouts see something more than we do. Hard to be upset with a 6'1'' C that can skate, loves to hit and has a decent shot. Seems like a good fit for our org. Worried about his offensive upside, though.

We surround him with strong offensive wingers, which we have in spades both on the team and in the system, he should be able to at least support them well offensively.

 

[Mess]

The big difference is Lazar has always had choppy skating, going all the way back to his time with the Oil Kings. Minten is a much smoother skater, better fundamentals. The other tools are really too hard to compare - both had a good shot, both seemed to have good motors and enjoy the physical side of the game...hard to really remember as Lazar's time in Junior is just 1 memory at this point, and it's not very precise.

Toronto's scouts see something more than we do. Hard to be upset with a 6'1'' C that can skate, loves to hit and has a decent shot. Seems like a good fit for our org. Worried about his offensive upside, though.

Minten Scouting report (prior to being drafted)

Defensively
What makes Minten so intriguing is his ability to remain calm and collected in his own zone. He doesn’t make mistakes often and understands where he needs to be in the defensive zone at all times. When he gets to a loose puck, he is able to make the smart breakout play which is a rare quality to have for a 17-year-old. His calmness in the defensive zone is a large reason why the Blazers have given up the least amount of goals in the Western Hockey League’s (WHL) Western Conference and own the fifth-best penalty kill in the entire league.

Offensively
As for his offensive game, this is an area where Minten does need to improve. While he has shown an ability to get open which has led to scoring chances, his ability to carry the puck into the zone is an area of concern. Rather than doing that, he seems to favour the dump and chase game. Luckily, he has made positive strides in his game on the boards and is able to pressure the defense into turnovers. Driving the center of the ice with the puck is a part of his game he will need to develop next season, as sometimes passing it off to his winger will not be an option.

NHL Potential

Minten has the potential to be a solid bottom-six center that also kills penalties. A player that probably will not eclipse 10 goals a season but will be out there late in games when defending a lead. There are still some areas he needs to improve, like his face-off percentage, but once he does, he should have no problem finding an NHL job.

Fraser Minten – NHL Draft Projection

When it comes to draft position, there is no clear indication of where he fits in. Some, believe he is an early third-rounder, while others see him more as a late third-rounder, maybe even falling to the fourth. If he has a strong playoff, it is not out of the question he could even push his way into the second round, but the most likely outcome is somewhere between 75th-80th overall,

Strengths

• Two-way game
• Play along the boards
• Penalty Killing
• Net-front presence

Under Construction (Improvements to Make)​

• Offensive zone entires
• Faceoffs
• Shooting

Risk-Reward Analysis​

Risk- 2/5, Reward 4/5

Fraser Minten - 2022 NHL Draft Prospect Profile - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

Get to know Kamloops Blazers center and 2022 NHL Entry Draft prospect Fraser Minten, who boasts a strong defensive game.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Minten Scouting report (prior to being drafted)

Where's this scouting report from?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Where's this scouting report from?

When you click link, you find out.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Where's this scouting report from?

It is from THW. By a blogger named Adam Kierszenblat who covers Vancouver and Seattle. Fraser Minten - 2022 NHL Draft Prospect Profile.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

When you click link, you find out.

Link wasn't there when I asked. You can see the post was edited.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Minten Scouting report (prior to being drafted)

Defensively
What makes Minten so intriguing is his ability to remain calm and collected in his own zone. He doesn’t make mistakes often and understands where he needs to be in the defensive zone at all times. When he gets to a loose puck, he is able to make the smart breakout play which is a rare quality to have for a 17-year-old. His calmness in the defensive zone is a large reason why the Blazers have given up the least amount of goals in the Western Hockey League’s (WHL) Western Conference and own the fifth-best penalty kill in the entire league.

Offensively
As for his offensive game, this is an area where Minten does need to improve. While he has shown an ability to get open which has led to scoring chances, his ability to carry the puck into the zone is an area of concern. Rather than doing that, he seems to favour the dump and chase game. Luckily, he has made positive strides in his game on the boards and is able to pressure the defense into turnovers. Driving the center of the ice with the puck is a part of his game he will need to develop next season, as sometimes passing it off to his winger will not be an option.

NHL Potential

Minten has the potential to be a solid bottom-six center that also kills penalties. A player that probably will not eclipse 10 goals a season but will be out there late in games when defending a lead. There are still some areas he needs to improve, like his face-off percentage, but once he does, he should have no problem finding an NHL job.

Fraser Minten – NHL Draft Projection

When it comes to draft position, there is no clear indication of where he fits in. Some, believe he is an early third-rounder, while others see him more as a late third-rounder, maybe even falling to the fourth. If he has a strong playoff, it is not out of the question he could even push his way into the second round, but the most likely outcome is somewhere between 75th-80th overall,

Strengths

• Two-way game
• Play along the boards
• Penalty Killing
• Net-front presence

Under Construction (Improvements to Make)​

• Offensive zone entires
• Faceoffs
• Shooting

Risk-Reward Analysis​

Risk- 2/5, Reward 4/5

Fraser Minten - 2022 NHL Draft Prospect Profile - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

Get to know Kamloops Blazers center and 2022 NHL Entry Draft prospect Fraser Minten, who boasts a strong defensive game.

thehockeywriters.com

The Hockey Writers are a blog that don't get many live viewings...but you seem keen to accept any source that supports what you think, and ignore sources, or ignore info within the sources you use (when you've cited Bob McKenzie), that would make your hypothesis more murky or flat out contradict it.

Where's this scouting report from?

amateur blog.

 

[Stephen]

Very interested to see if there’s a pop in Minten’s game in 2022-23.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Very interested to see if there’s a pop in Minten’s game in 2022-23.

I'd think so, mostly due to a substantial increase in icetime/opportunity.

Most prime opportunities went to Stankoven (for good reason), but he should be moving on to the pro ranks. That should be more evenly distributed this year.

Though that being said, Kamloops I believe is hosting the Memorial Cup this year, so they could be loading up at the trade deadline with acquisitions.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'd think so, mostly due to a substantial increase in icetime/opportunity.

Most prime opportunities went to Stankoven (for good reason), but he should be moving on to the pro ranks. That should be more evenly distributed this year.

Though that being said, Kamloops I believe is hosting the Memorial Cup this year, so they could be loading up at the trade deadline with acquisitions.

For Stankoven it’s either Dallas Stars or junior for him.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

For Stankoven it’s either Dallas Stars or junior for him.

Yes, I'm aware of that.

 

[Its not your fault]

No comparison is perfect; again, I'm trying to be nice to Fraser by comparing him to Lazar who was a superior junior player to my eyes, and had more transferable NHL skills: size, speed, and an effective shot. I hope Minten can become what Lazar became. But when you're drafting prospective 4th line players with your first pick in drafts, your team's future is in doubt.

Quiz... who is being talked about here: "From a Leafs point of view... _______ has the potential to fill the void of a two-way centre that can put the puck in the net, hit, and play in any situation. Despite already having NHL size, speed and scoring touch, there is a lot of refinement required before _______ will be able to play at a pro level. It seems likely that he will need two more years in junior before being ready to take the next step, but it would be hard to imagine that he won’t be representing Canada at the World Juniors next season, and having the opportunity to be one of the top remaining players on the ________ next season will be a great chance to see how he manages on a team without the safety net of numerous overagers and pro draft picks. It will be his team."

Which former WHL player who made a successful NHL transition would you compare Minten to?

How does he do with players in his own pond. Isn't being nice also raising the bar?

 

[Dion TheFluff]

10 points in 5 games thus far. The guy has been an absolute stud so far!

 

[HockeyVirus]

 

[BertCorbeau]

About to match last years goal totals in less the half the games played. Great D+1 season.

Also nice to see him have back to back hat tricks while Stankoven his at the WJC.

There’s some serious upside here if he can develop his offensive game.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Begs the question...