Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[Mess]

A big leap. What players between 25 and 38 played in the tournament? You mentioned Kulich.

Dumping of the Mrazek contract and the drafting of Fraser Minten will be forever linked because the Leafs used the pick they obtained in this trade to draft him.

All the players drafted between #25 and #38 will always be opportunity lost by Toronto to undo a UFA signing mistake and self inflicted wound by the Leafs GM, of taking a better and/or higher ranked player so a guy like Kulich is just one of those 13 players. Brad Lambert drafted 30th playing for Finland with Leafs prospects Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemelä in the gold medal game.

Time will tell how many of those players including dman Sam Rinzel who was selected with Leafs original pick in the 1st round will do in comparison to Minten in the NHL and years to come.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Dumping of the Mrazek contract and the drafting of Fraser Minten will be forever linked because the Leafs used the pick they obtained in this trade to draft him.

All the players drafted between #25 and #38 will always be opportunity lost by Toronto to undo a UFA signing mistake and self inflicted wound by the Leafs GM, of taking a better and/or higher ranked player so a guy like Kulich is just one of those 13 players. Brad Lambert drafted 30th playing for Finland with Leafs prospects Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemelä in the gold medal game.

Time will tell how many of those players including dman Sam Rinzel who was selected with Leafs original pick in the 1st round will do in comparison to Minten in the NHL and years to come.

Yes and no .. this seems a bit dramatic.

The Leafs made the trade being fully aware of who was available. If they felt a much superior talent was available at #25, I doubt they make the trade. It's more sensible that they had Minten much higher on their list and thought they could get him a bit later and move Mrazek's contract in the process.

In other words, while they're connected it's not really that the Leafs electively moved down to a lesser talent in the draft. It's that their scouting group ranked Minten in that same echelon and thought he could be had later. It's more about scouting than just correcting a bad UFA signing.

Of course this assumes they had Minten at #25, but we will never know if they had someone else on their list between 25-38.

 

[mistaclick]

I mean wasn’t the rumour that they believed we’d draft someone we had ranked in our “top 15” at 38? Considering where Minten was ranked by most I’d assume that’s the case. I only watched him one time but there is loads of untapped potential and he’s a responsible 200 ft C. It’s not easy to scout and select the right teenager, so it’s not “opportunity lost”.

I’m sure there will be guys between 25-38 and after 38 who pan out better than Minten but if the team management consensus is that he’s first round caliber then you take that while making a necessary move at the same time. Just got to give it time and trust the team’s insight as well as the prospect, some guys blossom and some guys bust that’s just the way it is. If they believe in Fraser then I do too as we all should, and we should not talk about who we could’ve taken instead nor about a mistake UFA signing which really was a fine signing at the time that just didn’t work out. You can’t foresee something like that happening with Mrazek. I think they made the right decision at the draft

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yes and no .. this seems a bit dramatic.

The Leafs made the trade being fully aware of who was available. If they felt a much superior talent was available at #25, I doubt they make the trade. It's more sensible that they had Minten much higher on their list and thought they could get him a bit later and move Mrazek's contract in the process.

In other words, while they're connected it's not really that the Leafs electively moved down to a lesser talent in the draft. It's that their scouting group ranked Minten in that same echelon and thought he could be had later. It's more about scouting than just correcting a bad UFA signing.

Of course this assumes they had Minten at #25, but we will never know if they had someone else on their list between 25-38.

I think it cost too much to move a guy like Mrazek, but even then, the Leafs had a chance to get guys who would have been more than appropriate at 25 available to them at 38. Sure they could not get Howard, Mesar, Kulich, Firkus, Beck, Chesley, or Lambert (the rest would have been major reaches at 25), but Luneau, Casey, Lorenz, Warren, and others were still out there. Any of those guys are better prospects than Minten in my book, and if we speculate based on the comments from our scouting in regards to how they viewed Minten, then at least were able to get out of Mrazek before reaching even more.

 

[Knies iT]

I mean wasn’t the rumour that they believed we’d draft someone we had ranked in our “top 15” at 38? Considering where Minten was ranked by most I’d assume that’s the case. I only watched him one time but there is loads of untapped potential and he’s a responsible 200 ft C. It’s not easy to scout and select the right teenager, so it’s not “opportunity lost”.

I’m sure there will be guys between 25-38 and after 38 who pan out better than Minten but if the team management consensus is that he’s first round caliber then you take that while making a necessary move at the same time. Just got to give it time and trust the team’s insight as well as the prospect, some guys blossom and some guys bust that’s just the way it is. If they believe in Fraser then I do too as we all should, and we should not talk about who we could’ve taken instead nor about a mistake UFA signing which really was a fine signing at the time that just didn’t work out. You can’t foresee something like that happening with Mrazek. I think they made the right decision at the draft

Blazers PBP guy with a source in Kamloops.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Dumping of the Mrazek contract and the drafting of Fraser Minten will be forever linked because the Leafs used the pick they obtained in this trade to draft him.

All the players drafted between #25 and #38 will always be opportunity lost by Toronto to undo a UFA signing mistake and self inflicted wound by the Leafs GM, of taking a better and/or higher ranked player so a guy like Kulich is just one of those 13 players. Brad Lambert drafted 30th playing for Finland with Leafs prospects Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemelä in the gold medal game.

Time will tell how many of those players including dman Sam Rinzel who was selected with Leafs original pick in the 1st round will do in comparison to Minten in the NHL and years to come.

It will only be connected by the complaining set if one of the players ( it doesn't matter which one) has a career that is better than Minten. Otherwise, it will be forgotten and there will be something else to whine about.

 

[ITM]

How can you remember him being the steal of the draft?

Actually, the member's memory is correct. Timashov (at least in Leafs' Nation) was absolutely hyped and with the advanced stats backed article to reason it as something plausible.

See below:

In The Land Of The Leafs, The One-Eyed Reporter Is King - Maple Leafs Hotstove

 

[Mess]

Yes and no .. this seems a bit dramatic.

The Leafs made the trade being fully aware of who was available. If they felt a much superior talent was available at #25, I doubt they make the trade. It's more sensible that they had Minten much higher on their list and thought they could get him a bit later and move Mrazek's contract in the process.

In other words, while they're connected it's not really that the Leafs electively moved down to a lesser talent in the draft. It's that their scouting group ranked Minten in that same echelon and thought he could be had later. It's more about scouting than just correcting a bad UFA signing.

Of course this assumes they had Minten at #25, but we will never know if they had someone else on their list between 25-38.

Leafs should have used their 1st to move up to match the Buffalo trade for Murray the day earlier (blocked by NTC) which was Murray (with Retention) + 7th overall for the 16th.

You have to think moving up using the #25 making a similar trade was a possibility, instead Leafs neeed/chose to move back to unload the Mrazek contract even if they got the same player Minten at 38th they might have taken at #25.

With the upcoming raises of the core players who are on expiring contracts, having a top 10 level player would have been huge to offset the cap cost >>>>>> Minten.

So this isn't even about just #25 thru #37 picks, but also the opportunity lost that would have come picking #7 OA and everybody thereafter to Minten at #38.

PS. The fallout of this move was the poor Murray trade which followed which every Leaf agrees was a poor return for taking on that contract.

 

[Mess]

I mean wasn’t the rumour that they believed we’d draft someone we had ranked in our “top 15” at 38? Considering where Minten was ranked by most I’d assume that’s the case. I only watched him one time but there is loads of untapped potential and he’s a responsible 200 ft C. It’s not easy to scout and select the right teenager, so it’s not “opportunity lost”.

I’m sure there will be guys between 25-38 and after 38 who pan out better than Minten but if the team management consensus is that he’s first round caliber then you take that while making a necessary move at the same time. Just got to give it time and trust the team’s insight as well as the prospect, some guys blossom and some guys bust that’s just the way it is. If they believe in Fraser then I do too as we all should, and we should not talk about who we could’ve taken instead nor about a mistake UFA signing which really was a fine signing at the time that just didn’t work out. You can’t foresee something like that happening with Mrazek. I think they made the right decision at the draft

These are all the pre-draft rankings of all the recognized scouting agencies of Fraser Mnten.

Ranked #47 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #101 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #85 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #28 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #68 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #94 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #67 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #92 by SMAHT SCOUTING
Ranked #70 by THE PUCK AUTHORITY

Bob McKenzie and his blended scouts rankings was the highest of all rankings having him at #47 .. Here is that Link: Bob McKenzie's Final 2022 Draft Ranking - TSN.ca

NHL central scouting had him the 28th ranked North American skater which doesn't even include Euro players and goalies. Link : https://cms.nhl.bamgrid.com/images/assets/binary/333752258/binary-file/file.pdf

TSN Craig Button had him #85 'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

He was scheduled to go based on those professional scouting rankings as late 2nd to 3rd rounder. Nobody had him evaluated as a 1st rounder let alone someone in the top 15. Even at #38 it was a reach according to scouting professionals and agencies.

 

[Racer88]

He wasn’t there

 

[Menzinger]

These are all the pre-draft rankings of all the recognized scouting agencies of Fraser Mnten.

Ranked #47 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #101 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #85 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #28 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #68 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #94 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #67 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #92 by SMAHT SCOUTING
Ranked #70 by THE PUCK AUTHORITY

Bob McKenzie and his blended scouts rankings was the highest of all rankings having him at #47 .. Here is that Link: Bob McKenzie's Final 2022 Draft Ranking - TSN.ca

NHL central scouting had him the 28th ranked North American skater which doesn't even include Euro players and goalies. Link : https://cms.nhl.bamgrid.com/images/assets/binary/333752258/binary-file/file.pdf

TSN Craig Button had him #85 'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

He was scheduled to go based on those professional scouting rankings as late 2nd to 3rd rounder. Nobody had him evaluated as a 1st rounder let alone someone in the top 15. Even at #38 it was a reach according to scouting professionals and agencies.

Though if teams cared about public scouting assessments they wouldn't hire their own internal ones

 

[Frostitute]

Though if teams cared about public scouting assessments they wouldn't hire their own internal ones

Boom

 

[Holymakinaw]

These are all the pre-draft rankings of all the recognized scouting agencies of Fraser Mnten.

Ranked #47 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #101 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #85 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #28 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #68 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #94 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #67 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #92 by SMAHT SCOUTING
Ranked #70 by THE PUCK AUTHORITY

Bob McKenzie and his blended scouts rankings was the highest of all rankings having him at #47 .. Here is that Link: Bob McKenzie's Final 2022 Draft Ranking - TSN.ca

NHL central scouting had him the 28th ranked North American skater which doesn't even include Euro players and goalies. Link : https://cms.nhl.bamgrid.com/images/assets/binary/333752258/binary-file/file.pdf

TSN Craig Button had him #85 'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

He was scheduled to go based on those professional scouting rankings as late 2nd to 3rd rounder. Nobody had him evaluated as a 1st rounder let alone someone in the top 15. Even at #38 it was a reach according to scouting professionals and agencies.

In fairness to all of them tho........there's not much difference between 38th OA and 28th and 70th and 85th, really(IMO). It's all a total crap shoot after the top 10 or so. It doesn't matter in the slightest where McKenzie has a kid like Minton ranked. They're all in a big blended pot.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs should have used their 1st to move up to match the Buffalo trade for Murray the day earlier (blocked by NTC) which was Murray (with Retention) + 7th overall for the 16th.

1. You don't know what the Murray deal was. There were reports of what was involved, not the entirety of the deal.
2. Just because Ottawa is willing to trade back to 16, it doesn't mean they're willing to trade back to 25.
3. Unlike 25 -> 38, moving 25 -> 7 would have meant moving to different prospect quality tiers, and there's really no reason to spend assets to move up there, especially in a weak draft where there's no notable target.

PS. The fallout of this move was the poor Murray trade which followed which every Leaf agrees was a poor return for taking on that contract.

The Murray trade has nothing to do with this, and every Leaf fan does not agree with your position.

 

[Mess]

In fairness to all of them tho........there's not much difference between 38th OA and 28th and 70th and 85th, really(IMO). It's all a total crap shoot after the top 10 or so. It doesn't matter in the slightest where McKenzie has a kid like Minton ranked. They're all in a big blended pot.

Perhaps on the fact that all prospects are suspects with no guarantees for success regardless of round taken. However these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff, that is why 1st round picks overall have higher success >> 2nd round picks >> 3rd round picks..

Lets use the 2015 entry draft and your example above using your late 1st round = 2nd rounder = 3rd rounder and not much difference.

The Leafs had the #24th overall pick in the 2015 draft and passed on Travis Konecny they trade back to to #29 to pick up a 2nd round (#61 OA) and then traded back out of the first to 2nd round #34 overall to pick up a 3rd round (#68 OA).

Summary Results

1st round #24 - Travis Konecny - 428 games 110 goals 161 assists 271 points 266 Pims

(only a mere - 10 spots drop) from #24 to #34

2nd round #34 - Travis Dermott - 268 games 13 goals 41 assists 54 points 100 Pims
3rd round #61 - Jeremy Bracco - 0 NHL games
3rd round #68 - Martins Dzierkals -0 NHL games.

When you apply your theory of late 1st rounder in the 20's and not much difference between #34, and 2nd and 3rd rounders to the results of previous actual draft, it sure looks like there is a significant diffference. Leafs traded back 10 spots in the draft made 2 X extra picks and the results speak for themselves about the later you go the less the odds of success become.

 

[Mess]

1. You don't know what the Murray deal was. There were reports of what was involved, not the entirety of the deal.

Sabres' attempt to acquire Matt Murray nixed by goalie's no-trade list

Equipped with cap space ahead of the NHL draft Thursday, the Sabres tried to acquire two-time Stanley Cup champion Matt Murray of the Ottawa Senators. A source confirmed the report by Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet that Murray blocked the move with his 10-team no trade list, which included Buffalo.

Additionally, the deal would have included Ottawa retaining salary and Buffalo flipping the 16th pick of the first round for 7th overall, according to Darren Dreger of TSN.

The deal would have come with some risk. Murray, 28, has underperformed in three straight seasons since winning consecutive Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016 and 2017. He’s posted an .899 save percentage and 3.23 goals-against average in two seasons since joining the Senators in 2020.

Sabres' attempt to acquire Matt Murray nixed by goalie's no-trade list

Equipped with cap space ahead of the NHL draft Thursday, the Sabres tried to acquire two-time Stanley Cup champion Matt Murray of the Ottawa Senators. A source confirmed the report

buffalonews.com

If Dubas chose to trade back knowing he could get Minten (implying nobody had him as a 1st rounder) to dump Mrazek and then with the new cap space decided Murray for a 3rd and 7th is better then potentially moving up to #7 like Buffalo was prepared to take the Murray contract dump. Then this all looks even worse then it is, based on the fact that professional scouting agencies see Minten as a reach at #38.

Leaf fans keep preaching that trading back from #25 to #38 is No Big Deal its just a mere 13 spots, well Buffala at #16 and Leafs #25 is only a mere 9 spots drop for Ottawa to make the same deal. Perhaps only the retention amount altered slightly to adjust for the lower draft pick.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When you apply your theory of late 1st rounder in the 20's and not much difference between #34, and 2nd and 3rd rounders to the results of previous actual draft, it sure looks like there is a significant diffference.

You mean when you take a sample size of one, and using hindsight, compare a success story in the late 1st (in one of the strongest drafts in history) to a less successful 2nd/3rd rounder, the 1st rounder is better? Wow, what a surprise!

Using that logic, Cirelli was drafted in the 3rd round, and Cirelli > Konecny, so 3rd rounder > 1st rounder confirmed, right?

Heck, Samsonsov was taken 2 spots ahead of Konecny, so you must be thrilled about our goaltending this upcoming season, right?

Additionally, the deal would have included Ottawa retaining salary and Buffalo flipping the 16th pick of the first round for 7th overall, according to Darren Dreger of TSN.

As I said, there were reports about what the trade included, but you do not know what the entirety of the deal was.

If Dubas chose to trade back knowing he could get Minten (implying nobody had him as a 1st rounder) to dump Mrazek and then with the new cap space decided Murray for a 3rd and 7th is better them potentially moving up to #7 like Buffalo. Then this all looks worse then it is, based on the fact that professional scouting agencies see Minten as a reach at #38.

As I already noted, just because Ottawa is willing to trade back to 16 for Murray, it doesn't mean they're willing to trade back to 25 or 38. Unlike 25 -> 38, moving 25/38 -> 7 would have meant moving to different prospect quality tiers, and there's really no reason to spend assets to move up there, especially in a weak draft where there's no notable target. Murray has nothing to do with Minten, and ending up with Minten at #38 doesn't look bad at all.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Dumping of the Mrazek contract and the drafting of Fraser Minten will be forever linked because the Leafs used the pick they obtained in this trade to draft him.

All the players drafted between #25 and #38 will always be opportunity lost by Toronto to undo a UFA signing mistake and self inflicted wound by the Leafs GM, of taking a better and/or higher ranked player so a guy like Kulich is just one of those 13 players. Brad Lambert drafted 30th playing for Finland with Leafs prospects Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemelä in the gold medal game.

Time will tell how many of those players including dman Sam Rinzel who was selected with Leafs original pick in the 1st round will do in comparison to Minten in the NHL and years to come.

Sam Rinzel the high school player who is seen as a 4-5 year project or more?

Brad Lambert who was benched and a healthy scratch at times in the summer WJC you mentioned? The one that looks like he's lost a lot of promise he had and thus why he dropped from the top 5 to bottom of the 1st round? The one with a meddling father that would make Paul Marner blush? Ya he's playing and looking bad on the team that our 2nd and 3rd round picks looked really good on!

In reality, it will be a small footnote on his hockeydb page that very few will remember...and if Minten turns out well, you will surely forget lol.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Perhaps on the fact that all prospects are suspects with no guarantees for success regardless of round taken. However these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff, that is why 1st round picks overall have higher success >> 2nd round picks >> 3rd round picks..

Lets use the 2015 entry draft and your example above using your late 1st round = 2nd rounder = 3rd rounder and not much difference.

The Leafs had the #24th overall pick in the 2015 draft and passed on Travis Konecny they trade back to to #29 to pick up a 2nd round (#61 OA) and then traded back out of the first to 2nd round #34 overall to pick up a 3rd round (#68 OA).

Summary Results

1st round #24 - Travis Konecny - 428 games 110 goals 161 assists 271 points 266 Pims

(only a mere - 10 spots drop) from #24 to #34

2nd round #34 - Travis Dermott - 268 games 13 goals 41 assists 54 points 100 Pims
3rd round #61 - Jeremy Bracco - 0 NHL games
3rd round #68 - Martins Dzierkals -0 NHL games.

When you apply your theory of late 1st rounder in the 20's and not much difference between #34, and 2nd and 3rd rounders to the results of previous actual draft, it sure looks like there is a significant diffference. Leafs traded back 10 spots in the draft made 2 X extra picks and the results speak for themselves about the later you go the less the odds of success become.

It's not that guys theory, it's what scouts both pro and in the media have said. Including your favourite Bob Mckenzie who emphasized it especially heavily this year because it's not seen as a very good draft overall.
It looks like a big difference to you because you are basing it on a sample size of 1 before this draft. You could look at the difference between players picked 25-29 and 32-40 or so over a period of a few years, if you really wanted to test your theory that late 1st rounder are much more valueable than early 2nd rounders. It's

 

[notbias]

Perhaps on the fact that all prospects are suspects with no guarantees for success regardless of round taken. However these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff, that is why 1st round picks overall have higher success >> 2nd round picks >> 3rd round picks..

Lets use the 2015 entry draft and your example above using your late 1st round = 2nd rounder = 3rd rounder and not much difference.

The Leafs had the #24th overall pick in the 2015 draft and passed on Travis Konecny they trade back to to #29 to pick up a 2nd round (#61 OA) and then traded back out of the first to 2nd round #34 overall to pick up a 3rd round (#68 OA).

Summary Results

1st round #24 - Travis Konecny - 428 games 110 goals 161 assists 271 points 266 Pims

(only a mere - 10 spots drop) from #24 to #34

2nd round #34 - Travis Dermott - 268 games 13 goals 41 assists 54 points 100 Pims
3rd round #61 - Jeremy Bracco - 0 NHL games
3rd round #68 - Martins Dzierkals -0 NHL games.

When you apply your theory of late 1st rounder in the 20's and not much difference between #34, and 2nd and 3rd rounders to the results of previous actual draft, it sure looks like there is a significant diffference. Leafs traded back 10 spots in the draft made 2 X extra picks and the results speak for themselves about the later you go the less the odds of success become.

Assuming that Dubas was drafting in 2015 (he seems to be doing well with 2nd/3rds), maybe we end up with Aho and Cirelli.

Such a silly argument to bring up the terrible drafting of Hunter and then somehow use it as a shot as Dubas.

If anything this trade back proves there is a lot of value still to be had in the 2nd/3rd and towards the late first onward there is not so much certainty.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Perhaps on the fact that all prospects are suspects with no guarantees for success regardless of round taken. However these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff, that is why 1st round picks overall have higher success >> 2nd round picks >> 3rd round picks..

1st round picks, for sure.

But what is it..........like 15% or players drafted in the 2nd round stick in the NHL & become "impact players"? And maybe half that for 3rd rounders? And so on?

Pretty much a crap shoot after the 1st half of the 1st round.

Minton at 38th......someone else at 70th........meh.

 

[ACC1224]

These are all the pre-draft rankings of all the recognized scouting agencies of Fraser Mnten.

Ranked #47 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #101 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #85 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #28 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #68 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #94 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #67 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #92 by SMAHT SCOUTING
Ranked #70 by THE PUCK AUTHORITY

Bob McKenzie and his blended scouts rankings was the highest of all rankings having him at #47 .. Here is that Link: Bob McKenzie's Final 2022 Draft Ranking - TSN.ca

NHL central scouting had him the 28th ranked North American skater which doesn't even include Euro players and goalies. Link : https://cms.nhl.bamgrid.com/images/assets/binary/333752258/binary-file/file.pdf

TSN Craig Button had him #85 'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

He was scheduled to go based on those professional scouting rankings as late 2nd to 3rd rounder. Nobody had him evaluated as a 1st rounder let alone someone in the top 15. Even at #38 it was a reach according to scouting professionals and agencies.

The Leafs having him in the top 15 always seemed like B.S., just a way to help ease the pain of losing the 1st for dumping Mrazek.
I'm sure they fooled some but it was pretty apparent to many others.

 

[Gallagbi]

The Leafs having him in the top 15 always seemed like B.S., just a way to help ease the pain of losing the 1st for dumping Mrazek.
I'm sure they fooled some but it was pretty apparent to many others.

Agreed, like when they said they had Rielly at #1 to ease the pain of missing on Galchenyuk and Yakupov

 

[Tarmore]

Perhaps on the fact that all prospects are suspects with no guarantees for success regardless of round taken. However these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff, that is why 1st round picks overall have higher success >> 2nd round picks >> 3rd round picks..

Lets use the 2015 entry draft and your example above using your late 1st round = 2nd rounder = 3rd rounder and not much difference.

The Leafs had the #24th overall pick in the 2015 draft and passed on Travis Konecny they trade back to to #29 to pick up a 2nd round (#61 OA) and then traded back out of the first to 2nd round #34 overall to pick up a 3rd round (#68 OA).

Summary Results

1st round #24 - Travis Konecny - 428 games 110 goals 161 assists 271 points 266 Pims

(only a mere - 10 spots drop) from #24 to #34

2nd round #34 - Travis Dermott - 268 games 13 goals 41 assists 54 points 100 Pims
3rd round #61 - Jeremy Bracco - 0 NHL games
3rd round #68 - Martins Dzierkals -0 NHL games.

When you apply your theory of late 1st rounder in the 20's and not much difference between #34, and 2nd and 3rd rounders to the results of previous actual draft, it sure looks like there is a significant diffference. Leafs traded back 10 spots in the draft made 2 X extra picks and the results speak for themselves about the later you go the less the odds of success become.

'these scouts that do this for a living know what they're looking for and are able to to separate the wheat from the chaff' 100% and the Leaf scouts are very good.

Seems like this is counter to most of your argument to me.

They identified Minten as a value pick they could get with their first OR trade back and get the same player.

 

[AuraSphere]

Baffles me that some scouts are so bad... I mean if this mystery pick works out for them - great they'll prove me wrong. But we'll regret passing on Chelsey, Sykora, Hutson, Warren - all 4 of who I wanted badly