Confirmed with Link: TOR sign G Ilya Samsonov to 1 year, 1.8M deal

[Gary Nylund]

It's an expression designed to remove any accountability from management.

LOL, what is your source for this nonsense. Or did you just make it up yourself?

I have no idea where the phrase originated so i won't make any nonsensical claims. Wherever is started though, it has caught on and I believe the reason for that is that very few people understand much about goaltending but there is one thing most of us agree on - predicting how goalies will do from one year to the next (or even one month to the next, see Campbell last season) is basically impossible. So calling them voodoo is simply a catchy phrase that expresses a simple truth in a way that that everyone can understand.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Here are the stats for Samsonov and Murray. Murray has not played 30 games for the last two seasons. Samsonov's SV% drops the more games he plays.

Its good to be confident, but I'd recommend being cautiously optimistic instead of believing that it will be 100% better.

View attachment 580320

And here are Murray's stats
View attachment 580321

It's clear that some are unable to think critically or logically when it comes to being a fan.

I mean, that poster thinks our goaltending is going to be far more consistent than the last 2 years. How can you possibly come to that conclusion?

Save percentage is becoming a bit like +/-, or pitcher wins in baseball. Ultimately a hollow stat that doesn't tell the whole story. Campbell's SP encompasses two extreme stretches. Early part of the year where he was lights out, and the latter half where he was doggie poop. In between...meh. So no...he didn't have a "better" season than the other two. He was wildly inconsistent, injury prone, and too hard on himself after a loss. Bad combo. I liked Jack, but 5 mil for 5 years was not happening. Good luck in the 'Chuk, but I'll put my faith in two younger goalies, one of which has won two more Stanley Cups than Smilin' Jack. My faith may be displaced if Murray doesn't conquer his injury bug, but if he does, I think we're in better shape.

This is completely false.

Goals against per game is a hollow stat.

Save percentage is the best way to measure a goalies performance.

The fact Campbell still had a better sv% than Murray and samsonov despite his terrible second half just goes to show how bad Murray and samsonov were.

You are in for a real shock this season.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Slap that clown attire on a pic of you and use it as your avatar...

Anyone with any sense of logic would know that Campbell's stats are extremely misleading, he was replacement level or worse for most of the year.

If I'm ever the gm of the leafs and squander years of the most promising team we've ever had, I'll make a clown avatar of me. Until then, it's dubas.

Cambell was better than Murray or samsonov. If you think Jack was replacement level or worse, you are in for a big surprise.

 

[notbias]

If I'm ever the gm of the leafs and squander years of the most promising team we've ever had, I'll make a clown avatar of me. Until then, it's dubas.

Cambell was better than Murray or samsonov. If you think Jack was replacement level or worse, you are in for a big surprise.

Was he replacement level or worse for the majority of the season? A simple question with only one correct answer.

 

[Mess]

Was he replacement level or worse for the majority of the season? A simple question with only one correct answer.

Check out his sv% in 2022 and last 5 months of the season in 29 games (every month < .900 sv%)

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Here are the stats for Samsonov and Murray. Murray has not played 30 games for the last two seasons. Samsonov's SV% drops the more games he plays.

Its good to be confident, but I'd recommend being cautiously optimistic instead of believing that it will be 100% better.

View attachment 580320

And here are Murray's stats
View attachment 580321

all i stated was we will get more consistent goaltending and it wont be close . i know everyone keeps throwing stats in my face. but its like people are completely disregarding what i said to fit ones argument.

people keep the comparison over the whole season. i said jack was near perfect till december,. he wasnt even replaceable damn near to the playoffs.

he may have been a 940 goalie until december but that run he had from the restart to the playoffs does not get enough spotlight. i know he ended up with a better stat at the end of the season but it makes you realize how bad that half a season run he had.

only time will tell

Check out his sv% in 2022 and last 5 months of the season in 29 games (every month < .900 sv%)

View attachment 580368
View attachment 580370
View attachment 580371

thank you

 

[Stephen]

LOL, what is your source for this nonsense. Or did you just make it up yourself?

I have no idea where the phrase originated so i won't make any nonsensical claims. Wherever is started though, it has caught on and I believe the reason for that is that very few people understand much about goaltending but there is one thing most of us agree on - predicting how goalies will do from one year to the next (or even one month to the next, see Campbell last season) is basically impossible. So calling them voodoo is simply a catchy phrase that expresses a simple truth in a way that that everyone can understand.

I wouldn't say it's a management-apologist phrase, but does stem from the analytics community not being able to develop any kind of reliable predictive tools for how goalies will have up and down seasons year to year or the non linear development paths goalie prospects can take.

Generally, I think goalie evaluation needs to made by goalie experts who can really hone in on the technique/athleticism/mental side as its own sub-sport. In very specific terms, it sounds like Murray and Samsonov both need to work on their stance. Murray has to be more upright to generate more lateral power moving side to side. Samsonov also needs to be more upright and straighten out his torso and not get into an inefficient crouch. The defense needs to protect the cross crease action with both these guys. I want to hear about specifics like this and not that "voodoo" nonsense.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

It's clear that some are unable to think critically or logically when it comes to being a fan.

I mean, that poster thinks our goaltending is going to be far more consistent than the last 2 years. How can you possibly come to that conclusion?



This is completely false.

Goals against per game is a hollow stat.

Save percentage is the best way to measure a goalies performance.

The fact Campbell still had a better sv% than Murray and samsonov despite his terrible second half just goes to show how bad Murray and samsonov were.

You are in for a real shock this season.

Murray wasn't even that bad if you look at his game by game stats. He had 2 horrible games at the end of the year trying to come back from his 2nd concussion. The fact that he only played 20 games, those 2 games really brought his sv% down. Looking at a lot of his games, he played pretty well considering he was on a bottom feeder.

He had a .943 in the month of February. A .924 in January. An .873 in January and a .936 in October. Those 2 games in March he had a .755.

Matt Murray 2024-25 Stats per Game - NHL - ESPN

The 2024-25 NHL season stats per game for Matt Murray of the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Looking at Samsonov's game by game stats he was consistently at around a .900 or lower most of the year on a playoff team.

 

[Tarmore]

Murray wasn't even that bad if you look at his game by game stats. He had 2 horrible games at the end of the year trying to come back from his 2nd concussion. The fact that he only played 20 games, those 2 games really brought his sv% down. Looking at a lot of his games, he played pretty well considering he was on a bottom feeder.

He had a .943 in the month of February. A .924 in January. An .873 in January and a .936 in October. Those 2 games in March he had a .755.

Matt Murray 2024-25 Stats per Game - NHL - ESPN

The 2024-25 NHL season stats per game for Matt Murray of the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Looking at Samsonov's game by game stats he was consistently at around a .900 or lower most of the year on a playoff team.

You also have to like that the two months he got the most games he had the best save % as well

February 5games .943
January 7games .924

 

[Dekes For Days]

Save percentage is the best way to measure a goalies performance.

Actually, GSAx is a better way to measure goalie performance than SV%, since it accounts for quality in addition to quantity, and it helps avoids mistakes like incorrectly thinking Campbell performed better than Murray last year just because he received vastly better defense in front.

I wouldn't say it's a management-apologist phrase, but does stem from the analytics community not being able to develop any kind of reliable predictive tools for how goalies will have up and down seasons year to year or the non linear development paths goalie prospects can take.

Generally, I think goalie evaluation needs to made by goalie experts who can really hone in on the technique/athleticism/mental side as its own sub-sport. In very specific terms, it sounds like Murray and Samsonov both need to work on their stance. Murray has to be more upright to generate more lateral power moving side to side. Samsonov also needs to be more upright and straighten out his torso and not get into an inefficient crouch. The defense needs to protect the cross crease action with both these guys. I want to hear about specifics like this and not that "voodoo" nonsense.

It's not a phrase isolated to the analytics community. People do talk about the specifics you're mentioning, and the particular strengths/weaknesses of goalies, but the variability you're describing that that phrase is born out of is just an inherent reality of the goaltending position.

 

[BertCorbeau]

It's clear that some are unable to think critically or logically when it comes to being a fan.

I mean, that poster thinks our goaltending is going to be far more consistent than the last 2 years. How can you possibly come to that conclusion?



This is completely false.

Goals against per game is a hollow stat.

Save percentage is the best way to measure a goalies performance.

The fact Campbell still had a better sv% than Murray and samsonov despite his terrible second half just goes to show how bad Murray and samsonov were.

You are in for a real shock this season.

So you would have signed Campbell for $5 x 5?

 

[Notsince67]

So you would have signed Campbell for $5 x 5?

Sure. Let's give up a first a year from now getting rid of him

 

[rocketman588]

Actually, GSAx is a better way to measure goalie performance than SV%, since it accounts for quality in addition to quantity, and it helps avoids mistakes like incorrectly thinking Campbell performed better than Murray last year just because he received vastly better defense in front.

It's not a phrase isolated to the analytics community. People do talk about the specifics you're mentioning, and the particular strengths/weaknesses of goalies, but the variability you're describing that that phrase is born out of is just an inherent reality of the goaltending position.

Campbell was the 7th best goalie based on that stat in 20-21 and we offered him 2 mil a year and a go f*** yourself contract

It's pretty obvious the leafs don't actually value that stat

 

[Dekes For Days]

we offered him 2 mil a year and a go f*** yourself contract
It's pretty obvious the leafs don't actually value that stat

We did not offer a 2m "go ____ yourself" contract, and just because the Leafs didn't want to commit large term and money to a relatively unproven goalie doesn't mean they don't value these type of metrics.

 

[Tarmore]

Campbell was the 7th best goalie based on that stat in 20-21 and we offered him 2 mil a year and a go f*** yourself contract

It's pretty obvious the leafs don't actually value that stat

Once again. What is your source?

 

[Mess]

Actually, GSAx is a better way to measure goalie performance than SV%, since it accounts for quality in addition to quantity, and it helps avoids mistakes like incorrectly thinking Campbell performed better than Murray last year just because he received vastly better defense in front.

It's not a phrase isolated to the analytics community. People do talk about the specifics you're mentioning, and the particular strengths/weaknesses of goalies, but the variability you're describing that that phrase is born out of is just an inherent reality of the goaltending position.

2021-22 Season Stats.. Goals Saved Above expected (GSAx)

According to your favourite stat GSAx Samsonov is a downgrade from Mrazek going from -11.6 to -12.1 as Samsonov made less expected saves than Mrazek.

That placed them #106 & 107 out of 119 ranked goalies in 2021-22.

You can see why Toronto and Washington were so keen on moving on from them Leafs even had to use draft capital to rid themselves of Mrazek. With Mrazek going to Chicago a team tanking for the #1 in entry draft that makes perfect sense you want soft goaltending to finish last. Now how do we square the Cup contending team that thought this was improving their netminding by acquiring one?

 

[Dekes For Days]

According to your favourite stat GSAx Samsonov is a downgrade from Mrazek going from -11.6 to -12.1 as Samsonov made less expected saves than Mrazek then he should have.

Actually, according to that stat that you have used countless times throughout this summer as well, Mrazek performed worse. He just also played less games.

Samsonov is also a 25-year old goalie with high potential, even if he hasn't put it all together yet.

 

[Gallagbi]

2021-22 Season Stats.. Goals Saved Above expected (GSAx)

View attachment 580527

According to your favourite stat GSAx Samsonov is a downgrade from Mrazek going from -11.6 to -12.1 as Samsonov made less expected saves than Mrazek.

That placed them #106 & 107 out of 119 ranked goalies in 2021-22.

You can see why Toronto and Washington were so keen on moving on from them Leafs even had to use draft capital to rid themselves of Mrazek. With Mrazek going to Chicago a team tanking for the #1 in entry draft that makes perfect sense you want soft goaltending to finish last. Now how do we square the Cup contending team that thought this was improving their netminding by acquiring one?

Psst, look at the far right numbers.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

2021-22 Season Stats.. Goals Saved Above expected (GSAx)

View attachment 580527

According to your favourite stat GSAx Samsonov is a downgrade from Mrazek going from -11.6 to -12.1 as Samsonov made less expected saves than Mrazek.

That placed them #106 & 107 out of 119 ranked goalies in 2021-22.

You can see why Toronto and Washington were so keen on moving on from them Leafs even had to use draft capital to rid themselves of Mrazek. With Mrazek going to Chicago a team tanking for the #1 in entry draft that makes perfect sense you want soft goaltending to finish last. Now how do we square the Cup contending team that thought this was improving their netminding by acquiring one?

You do realize that you are comparing a cumulative stat between two players which have wildly different GP, right? Look 1 column to the right.

This is basic stuff man, cmon.

Psst, look at the far right numbers.

I physically cringed reading that part too...

 

[weems]

I wouldn't say it's a management-apologist phrase, but does stem from the analytics community not being able to develop any kind of reliable predictive tools for how goalies will have up and down seasons year to year or the non linear development paths goalie prospects can take.

Generally, I think goalie evaluation needs to made by goalie experts who can really hone in on the technique/athleticism/mental side as its own sub-sport. In very specific terms, it sounds like Murray and Samsonov both need to work on their stance. Murray has to be more upright to generate more lateral power moving side to side. Samsonov also needs to be more upright and straighten out his torso and not get into an inefficient crouch. The defense needs to protect the cross crease action with both these guys. I want to hear about specifics like this and not that "voodoo" nonsense.

Was just reading some other forums on the website and came across this quote from Canucks goalie coach Ian Clark and found it very interesting.

“I say this, and I probably shouldn’t, but I say that we can teach a goaltender technique in a weekend,” Clark said with a laugh. “So for me, those things really don’t register for me when I’m evaluating a goalie. What I’m really looking at is the intangible things that I know through my history in the game are much more difficult to teach through nurture.”

 

[The Iceman]

Check out his sv% in 2022 and last 5 months of the season in 29 games (every month < .900 sv%)

View attachment 580368
View attachment 580370
View attachment 580371

You could also include the .897 playoff performance

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

You could also include the .897 playoff performance

We only bring up playoff stats when they make our players look bad

-Mess, probably

 

[Stephen]

Was just reading some other forums on the website and came across this quote from Canucks goalie coach Ian Clark and found it very interesting.

“I say this, and I probably shouldn’t, but I say that we can teach a goaltender technique in a weekend,” Clark said with a laugh. “So for me, those things really don’t register for me when I’m evaluating a goalie. What I’m really looking at is the intangible things that I know through my history in the game are much more difficult to teach through nurture.”

Yeah I’ve heard goalie experts talk about the three ingredients which fit broadly under 1) size, athleticism, build, etc. 2) technique and 3) the will to battle, play tough moments etc.

For example, Freddy Andersen has the first two in spades but probably not the mental fortitude.

 

[Nineteen67]

Was just reading some other forums on the website and came across this quote from Canucks goalie coach Ian Clark and found it very interesting.

“I say this, and I probably shouldn’t, but I say that we can teach a goaltender technique in a weekend,” Clark said with a laugh. “So for me, those things really don’t register for me when I’m evaluating a goalie. What I’m really looking at is the intangible things that I know through my history in the game are much more difficult to teach through nurture.”

Intangibles, eh?

Actually, according to that stat that you have used countless times throughout this summer as well, Mrazek performed worse. He just also played less games.

Samsonov is also a 25-year old goalie with high potential, even if he hasn't put it all together yet.

What you’re saying is, it’s Year five and they’re rolling dice. Most would agree.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What you’re saying is, it’s Year five and they’re rolling dice.

No, what I said is what I said. There are risks associated with the goaltending we have, but the same is true for the overwhelming majority of the league, and every team that acquired a goaltender this year.