Confirmed with Link: TOR sign G Ilya Samsonov to 1 year, 1.8M deal

[saltming]

Okay here is the "Realist" data you have requested.

Goal: The Leafs are looking for a goalie that can steal them a game and playoff series so what better stat than "Goals Saved above Expected" to show that ?

Here are the top 12 goalies from last year and then a couple more including Samsonov.


NHL Goaltending Leaders Goals Saved above Expected - Season 2021-22

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]Petr Mrazek[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]46.38[/TD]

[TD]

-11.60​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.668​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.10​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Samsonov in front of a 100 point team last year and recent Cup winning team Caps posted the #107 worst goals saved above expected at -12.10 and even worse that Mrazek @ -11.60 (whom the Leafs dumped to improve.

Is that unbiased enough or do you need to know also Samsonov in his last 7 playoff starts has a record of 1-6 losing to Boston in 5 (in 2021) and Florida in 6 (in 2022). So 1 playoff game win over the past 2 seasons agaisnt Leafs own Atlantic opponents.

So your turn, where is the data supporting the claim that this is an upgrade in net for the Leafs, when statistically Samsonov (.899 sv%) wasn't any better than Mrazek (.889 sv%) who was seen as major disappointment?

I get the fact that as Leaf fans we're all starving for playoff success, and we have no choice but , and hope for the best, but posting recent stats should not make one optimistic either, as they present as pessimistic instead.

Data is fact. Realism is a perception of facts. Facts are more than just simple data as was stated in my post.
You're using data as the gospel and neglecting the other facts that should be take into account to have a realistic pov.
Realistically nothing stays the same. These goalies will either get better or worse, that's realistic.
Realistically, if you listened to the podcast you would know, that both tenders started trending upwards once they adjusted their techniques,so realistically there is a good chance they will become better, not worse.
The issue is that your post stated data and saying that it's a realistic view but it doesn't reflect the full picture and thus becomes biased and unrealistic. Realism is based in the belief that the future is unset and can flow either way. A realist can then say one outcome is more likely than the other, but would base that on all the data, not just partial info and that is the crux of this conversation, not is goalie A or B going to be better.
To that last point, realistically, there is a good chance that both goalies get better moving forward. Realistically, this might not happen but this is not Einstein's definition of insanity, there is data and situational influences in play that make this different than the past scenarios these goalies where in.
Your data is flawless, these numbers are empirical, but your post is short sighted because it precludes the recent, small sample size, trending of both goalies based on their work in altering their style of play. You are unrealistically saying they cannot get better because they weren't good before.
If you cannot address that then it would seem you are tunnel vissioned or are agenda driven.

 

[LeafChief]

Samsonov 7 games started in the last 2 playoffs with 1 win and 6 losses matches Matt Murray last 2 playoff record. (this done on former Cup winners with OV and Crosby and Malkin in front of them).

Leafs new goalies playoff record in last 4 series = 2 wins and 12 losses.

Caps and Pens say "Goodbye" and Leafs say "Hello" .. That almost sounds like a Beetles song .

You say, "Goodbye" and I say, "Hello, hello, hello", I don't know why you say, "Goodbye", I say, "Hello" ..... Ironically Released: 1967 the year Leafs said "Goodbye" to the Stanley Cup.

This is Leafs plan to end their round #1 losses? Interesting !!!

Reverse Psychology ?

What even is this post? Jesus Christ.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So your turn, where is the data supporting the claim that this is an upgrade in net for the Leafs

Well, with the very stat you're using, we could discuss things like Murray's positive GSAx in the regular season (something no Leaf goalie had last year) or Samsonov's positive GSAx in the playoffs (compared to Campbell's -1.1).

Or we can acknowledge that while GSAx is an incredibly useful tool, it's largely representative of what's happened, not what's going to happen. Goaltending is an inherently variable position, and it's not like "points" for forwards where you can for example label a guy a PPG forward. In goaltending, there are a handful of top tier goalies that were not available, that can reasonably be expected to (though certainly not guaranteed to) put up positive results and land in the upper range of league goalies. Then it's mostly everybody else, who largely fluctuate to some extent between good and bad stretches and different performances from year to year.

There are no guarantees, we don't know if it's an upgrade, and we have to see how things play out (especially with a new goaltending department and coach), but there are reasons to be optimistic if you don't actively try not to be. If it was another team that made these moves, we'd be talking about how it was better than what we did because they got a proven two-time cup winner and a 1st round young guy with pedigree, potential, and team control, without significant cap or term commitments or age concerns, and got paid for it.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Data is fact. Realism is a perception of facts. Facts are more than just simple data as was stated in my post.
You're using data as the gospel and neglecting the other facts that should be take into account to have a realistic pov.
Realistically nothing stays the same. These goalies will either get better or worse, that's realistic.
Realistically, if you listened to the podcast you would know, that both tenders started trending upwards once they adjusted their techniques,so realistically there is a good chance they will become better, not worse.
The issue is that your post stated data and saying that it's a realistic view but it doesn't reflect the full picture and thus becomes biased and unrealistic. Realism is based in the belief that the future is unset and can flow either way. A realist can then say one outcome is more likely than the other, but would base that on all the data, not just partial info and that is the crux of this conversation, not is goalie A or B going to be better.
To that last point, realistically, there is a good chance that both goalies get better moving forward. Realistically, this might not happen but this is not Einstein's definition of insanity, there is data and situational influences in play that make this different than the past scenarios these goalies where in.
Your data is flawless, these numbers are empirical, but your post is short sighted because it precludes the recent, small sample size, trending of both goalies based on their work in altering their style of play. You are unrealistically saying they cannot get better because they weren't good before.
If you cannot address that then it would seem you are tunnel vissioned or are agenda driven.

Your entire post is nothing but your opinions.

Mess used facts and data. If you cannot address that then it would seem you are tunnel vissioned(?) or are agenda driven

Okay here is the "Realist" data you have requested.

Goal: The Leafs are looking for a goalie that can steal them a game and playoff series so what better stat than "Goals Saved above Expected" to show that ?

Here are the top 12 goalies from last year and then a couple more including Samsonov.


NHL Goaltending Leaders Goals Saved above Expected - Season 2021-22

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]Petr Mrazek[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]46.38[/TD]

[TD]

-11.60​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.668​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.10​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Samsonov in front of a 100 point team last year and recent Cup winning team Caps posted the #107 worst goals saved above expected at -12.10 and even worse that Mrazek @ -11.60 (whom the Leafs dumped to improve.

Is that unbiased enough or do you need to know also Samsonov in his last 7 playoff starts has a record of 1-6 losing to Boston in 5 (in 2021) and Florida in 6 (in 2022). So 1 playoff game win over the past 2 seasons agaisnt Leafs own Atlantic opponents.

So your turn, where is the data supporting the claim that this is an upgrade in net for the Leafs, when statistically Samsonov (.899 sv%) wasn't any better than Mrazek (.889 sv%) who was seen as major disappointment?

I get the fact that as Leaf fans we're all starving for playoff success, and we have no choice but , and hope for the best, but posting recent stats should not make one optimistic either, as they present as pessimistic instead.

Good post mess.

Anyone saying samsonov is an upgrade has been drinking far to much blue kool-aid.

Those same posters tend to be dubas fan boys. I wonder if there is some kind of link?

 

[cyris]

Okay here is the "Realist" data you have requested.

Goal: The Leafs are looking for a goalie that can steal them a game and playoff series so what better stat than "Goals Saved above Expected" to show that ?

Here are the top 12 goalies from last year and then a couple more including Samsonov.


NHL Goaltending Leaders Goals Saved above Expected - Season 2021-22

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]Petr Mrazek[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]46.38[/TD]

[TD]

-11.60​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.668​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.10​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Samsonov in front of a 100 point team last year and recent Cup winning team Caps posted the #107 worst goals saved above expected at -12.10 and even worse that Mrazek @ -11.60 (whom the Leafs dumped to improve.

Is that unbiased enough or do you need to know also Samsonov in his last 7 playoff starts has a record of 1-6 losing to Boston in 5 (in 2021) and Florida in 6 (in 2022). So 1 playoff game win over the past 2 seasons agaisnt Leafs own Atlantic opponents.

So your turn, where is the data supporting the claim that this is an upgrade in net for the Leafs, when statistically Samsonov (.899 sv%) wasn't any better than Mrazek (.889 sv%) who was seen as major disappointment?

I get the fact that as Leaf fans we're all starving for playoff success, and we have no choice but , and hope for the best, but posting recent stats should not make one optimistic either, as they present as pessimistic instead.

Yes Samsonov’s goals saved above expected was lower than Mrazek. But most of that is due to playing twice as many games. His goals saved above expected per 60 was -0.307 vs -0.668 for Mrazek.

So by your own numbers Mrazek was more than twice as bad last season.

I’m not in any way saying Samsonov is going to be our saviour but your own numbers you posted show he would have been a massive improvement last season, which is more of an indication of just how bad Mrazek was.

 

[saltming]

Your entire post is nothing but your opinions.

Mess used facts and data. If you cannot address that then it would seem you are tunnel vissioned(?) or are agenda driven



Good post mess.

Anyone saying samsonov is an upgrade has been drinking far to much blue kool-aid.

Those same posters tend to be dubas fan boys. I wonder if there is some kind of link?

Lol
The regurgitating my argument is weak btw so either you didn't grasp the gist of my post or didn't read it. @Mess used data, which are facts but he didn't incorporate all the facts to establish, as he proclaimed previously, a realistic view. At no point in my post did I say his data was wrong, to the contrary I acknowledged that it was empirically correct. The word I used to show the point of the post was, crux, to point out my argument was in his interpretation of realistic view
Realism: the quality or fact of representing a person, thing, or situation accurately or in a way that is true to life.
His data takes a static image of the past and he's transposing it into the future without including other pertinent facts.
So you can think my post is an opinion, because it is, but so is mess's an opinion. Both based on facts, but if you want to debate the validity of my post you should aim for the subject of the post, not what you subjectively think it's saying.

 

[cyris]

Lol
The regurgitating my argument is weak btw so either you didn't grasp the gist of my post or didn't read it. @Mess used data, which are facts but he didn't incorporate all the facts to establish, as he proclaimed previously, a realistic view. At no point in my post did I say his data was wrong, to the contrary I acknowledged that it was empirically correct. The word I used to show the point of the post was, crux, to point out my argument was in his interpretation of realistic view
Realism: the quality or fact of representing a person, thing, or situation accurately or in a way that is true to life.
His data takes a static image of the past and he's transposing it into the future without including other pertinent facts.
So you can think my post is an opinion, because it is, but so is mess's an opinion. Both based on facts, but if you want to debate the validity of my post you should aim for the subject of the post, not what you subjectively think it's saying.

Mess used facts but he used pretty selective facts that supported his opinion without full content.

 

[saltming]

Mess used facts but he used pretty selective facts that supported his opinion without full content.

Yes that's what I told him and gave him a link to the important facts he's omitting.
The thing is the tale can be spun both ways and the only way to tell which is right is to wait for the season to be underway, but if one wants to air an opinion, it should be fairly weighed.

 

[andora]

With all the stuff that Mess posts correct me if i am wrong but i dont see too many if any personal convictions, statements or 'i think this' type comments

He posts a lot of data, poses open questions, and generally comes across as putting information out there open ended to stir discussion

Sometimes i dont read the posts, but i dont see opinions too much

 

[cyris]

With all the stuff that Mess posts correct me if i am wrong but i dont see too many if any personal convictions, statements or 'i think this' type comments

He posts a lot of data, poses open questions, and generally comes across as putting information out there open ended to stir discussion

Sometimes i dont read the posts, but i dont see opinions too much

There was definitely opinion injected into his last post. And he ignored context in the the stat he chose to highlight goals saved above expected. The context being Samsonov played more than twice as many games as Mrazek and thus had twice as much time to compile that negative number.

 

[andora]

There was definitely opinion injected into his last post.

Where?

The saying the stat is the best to use?

 

[cyris]

Where?

The saying the stat is the best to use?

Saying that is s the best stat to use and highlighting his GSAE vs Mrazek. Ignoring that Mrazek’s GSAE would have been -26.29 if he had played the same number of mins as Samsonov.

 

[andora]

Saying that is s the best stat to use and highlighting his GSAE vs Mrazek. Ignoring that Mrazek’s GSAE would have been -26.29 if he had played the same number of mins as Samsonov.

How can that be true and not a projection?

 

[cyris]

How can that be true and not a projection?

It is a projection. It’s what his GSAE would have been if he had played the same minutes as Samsonov if Mrazek had continued the exact same level of play. But he likely wouldn’t have. It could have been better or it could have been worse. But it is unlikely to have been exactly the same.

The point is Mess’s use of a single stat to enforce his opinion is highly flawed when proper context isn’t given.

 

[LeafChief]

With all the stuff that Mess posts correct me if i am wrong but i dont see too many if any personal convictions, statements or 'i think this' type comments

He posts a lot of data, poses open questions, and generally comes across as putting information out there open ended to stir discussion

Sometimes i dont read the posts, but i dont see opinions too much

He posts very selective data while ignoring the majority of the data to make a point and try to get a rise out of people.

What he does goes against the very rules of the forum that he has been put in charge of Moderating. I personally believe that is where people take issue more so than they do with what he actually posts.

His posts aren't salacious. The reason you see such a response to his posts is because he does exactly what the rules say you cannot do on here and he goes unchecked.

 

[cyris]

He posts very selective data while ignoring the majority of the data to make a point and try to get a rise out of people.

What he does goes against the very rules of the forum that he has been put in charge of Moderating. I personally believe that is where people take issue more so than they do with what he actually posts.

His posts aren't salacious. The reason you see such a response to his posts is because he does exactly what the rules say you cannot do on here and he goes unchecked.

I disagree with his use selective use of stats but how does it break the rules?
Expressing his opinion in ways we don’t agree with isn’t in anyway a violation of board rules.

 

[Racer88]

I keep hearing that there are only a few star goalies in the league, that’s great but some teams have those great goalies. My question may seem simplistic but why have the Leafs shown no interest in drafting and attempting to get one of these goalies. It seems like we are always working on some questionable long shot reclamation project in net. This is all Dubas does. Maybe he should have focused a little more of his time on building a goalie pipeline and prospects instead of just concentrating on a few forwards. We might not have to rely so much of our season on if the latest scrap heap goalie can turn it around or stay healthy. It seems like that’s all we ever do. Great way to waste our cup window

He posts very selective data while ignoring the majority of the data to make a point and try to get a rise out of people.

What he does goes against the very rules of the forum that he has been put in charge of Moderating. I personally believe that is where people take issue more so than they do with what he actually posts.

His posts aren't salacious. The reason you see such a response to his posts is because he does exactly what the rules say you cannot do on here and he goes unchecked.

I think you are wrong. Agree with him or not but he is not breaking any rules

 

[Stephen]

Your entire post is nothing but your opinions.

Mess used facts and data. If you cannot address that then it would seem you are tunnel vissioned(?) or are agenda driven



Good post mess.

Anyone saying samsonov is an upgrade has been drinking far to much blue kool-aid.

Those same posters tend to be dubas fan boys. I wonder if there is some kind of link?

Not exactly. Samsonov isn't an out of the box solution to improve the goalie position right away. But he's 25 and comes with a ton of pedigree and untapped upside, so I think the hope is you get a Jack Campbell type reclamation where he begins to settle down in Year 1, gets re-signed for an extended look and can compete for a number one job down the road.

Think of it another way. He's already played a lot of NHL games but is one year older than Woll and one year younger than Kallgren.

 

[Stephen]

I keep hearing that there are only a few star goalies in the league, that’s great but some teams have those great goalies. My question may seem simplistic but why have the Leafs shown no interest in drafting and attempting to get one of these goalies. It seems like we are always working on some questionable long shot reclamation project in net. This is all Dubas does. Maybe he should have focused a little more of his time on building a goalie pipeline and prospects instead of just concentrating on a few forwards. We might not have to rely so much of our season on if the latest scrap heap goalie can turn it around or stay healthy. It seems like that’s all we ever do. Great way to waste our cup window


I think you are wrong. Agree with him or not but he is not breaking any rules

I think Dubas has a hierarchy or priority of positions in mind which roughly corresponds with his understanding of each position. Goaltending happens to be at the bottom of that list so he assigns a Money Ball approach to getting cheap interchangeable parts that can do what Francouz or Kuemper did in Colorado.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I disagree with his use selective use of stats but how does it break the rules?
Expressing his opinion in ways we don’t agree with isn’t in anyway a violation of board rules.

I could make a claim that a guy who has 3 PPG in their career is better than someone with 2 PPG in their career. Both of those numbers are facts, but what is not included is that 3 PPG player only played one game and the 2 PPG player played 500 games. Suddenly changes the perception of things, because I doubt anyone is going to say the 3 PPG player is better than the 2 PPG player.

Mess uses data and facts, but blatantly omits important context that legitimizes them as I did above. Even if the intention is somehow not there, this is basic fundamentals for using data and analytics properly and responsibly. Plenty of people are guilty of it, but as a mod, I think you are held to a higher standard to follow your own rules (especially the more important ones).

 

[Mess]

Mess used facts but he used pretty selective facts that supported his opinion without full content.

If you look at the list I provided and just focus on the top 5 best "goals saved above expected" you have

Eastern Conference Final #1 NYR vs #3 Carolina & #2 TB vs #4 Florida as final 4 in east, & #1 Shesterkin NYR vs #2 Vasilevskiy TB in ECF, and then #2 TB vs #5 Colorado for the Stanley Cup and their goalies with the best "goals saved above expected" .

Samsonov is a -12.10 vs all those top 5 team goalies ranging from +34.10 Shesterkin (Hart finalist) to +21.0 for Darcy Kuemper (who won the Stanley Cup) by knocking off #2 Vasilevskiy @ +28.4. (the 2 time Cup winner)


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.10​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

PS. Remember Samsonov isn't suppose to be just better than Mrazek who was awful, he is suppose to be like other top Cup competitors in the East who are the Leafs competition for the Cup.

Why do you think Washington walked away from Samsonov as an RFA without a qualifying offer because he was awful, and went All-In on Darcy Kuemper who won the Cup because they wanted to also compete for the Cup and needed a goalie to steal them games (which is what this stat represents best) , and not lose in round #1 year after year with sub-par goaltending with Samsonov going 1w-6L and Caps out in round #1 the past 2 seasons.?

 

[cyris]

If you look at the list I provided and just focus on the top 5 best "goals saved above expected" you have

Eastern Conference Final #1 NYR vs #3 Carolina & #2 TB vs #4 Florida as final 4 and then #2 TB vs #5 Colorado for the Stanley Cup and their goalies with the best "goals saved above expected" .

Samsonov is a -12.10 vs all those top 5 team goalies ranging from +34.10 Shesterkin (Hart finalist) to +21.0 for Darcy Kuemper (who won the Stanley Cup)


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.10​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

PS. Remember Samsonov isn't suppose to be just better than Mrazek who was awful, he is suppose to be like other top Cup competitors in the East who are the Leafs competition for the Cup.

Why do you think Washington walked away from Samsonov as an RFA without a qualifying offer because he was awful, and went All-In on Darcy Kuemper who won the Cup because the wanted to also compete for the Cup, and not lose in round #1 year after year with sub-par goaltending with Samsonov going 1w-6L and Caps out in round #1 the past 2 seasons.?

I’m not saying Samsonov was great, I just objected to you choosing goals saved above expected to compare him to Mrazek. While ignoring the massive impact games played has on that stat.
I don’t think anyone in here is saying Samsonov belongs anywhere near a conversation on the best goaltenders in the league.

It can be seen as trolling.

I could make a claim that a guy who has 3 PPG in their career is better than someone with 2 PPG in their career. Both of those numbers are facts, but what is not included is that 3 PPG player only played one game and the 2 PPG player played 500 games. Suddenly changes the perception of things, because I doubt anyone is going to say the 3 PPG player is better than the 2 PPG player.

Mess uses data and facts, but blatantly omits important context that legitimizes them as I did above. Even if the intention is somehow not there, this is basic fundamentals for using data and analytics properly and responsibly. Plenty of people are guilty of it, but as a mod, I think you are held to a higher standard to follow your own rules (especially the more important ones).

It would be a pretty big stretch to call it trolling. He is using selective data to back up his opinions but if that was against board rules the staff here would be handing out hundreds of infractions a day.

 

[Mess]

I’m not saying Samsonov was great, I just objected to you choosing goals saved above expected to compare him to Mrazek. While ignoring the massive impact games played has on that stat.
I don’t think anyone in here is saying Samsonov belongs anywhere near a conversation on the best goaltenders in the league.

Remember Washington was a 100 point regular season team so these are Samsonov's "other stats" on a playoff team.

Source TSN :NHL Players - Players of the National Hockey League

His Goals Against Average of 3.2 placed him 60th among goalie (2 goalies per NHL team X 32 teams = 64 regular goalies in NHL)

His Save Percentage of .896 on the season placed him 75th.

As I mentioned earlier his -12.10 goals saved above expected placed him #107 of 119 ranked goalies last year.

There is no opinion in my post, these are his raw data and actual stats that were among the worst in the NHL last year, in categories by which goalies are evaluated.

Is this an upgrade on Leafs goaltending?

PS. Forget Mrazek, compare him the rest of the NHL goalies last year, as that is what I'm doing,

 

[cyris]

Remember Washington was a 100 point regular season team so these are Samsonov's "other stats" on a playoff team.

View attachment 576735

His Goals Against Average of 3.2 placed him 60th among goalie (2 goalies per NHL team X 32 teams = 64 regular goalies in NHL)

His Save Percentage of .896 on the season placed him 75th.

As I mentioned earlier his -12.10 goals saved above expected placed him #107 of 119 ranked goalies last year.

There is no opinion in my post, these are his raw data and actual stats that were among the worst in the NHL last year, in categories by which goalies are evaluated.

Is this an upgrade on Leafs goaltending?

PS. Forget Mrazek, compare him the rest of the NHL goalies last year, as that is what I'm doing,

Why would we forget Mrazek?
That’s the goalie he is replacing and this is a discussion about if the Leafs have improved their goaltending. Mrazek is the exact comparison we should be making.

Overall I think it is wishful thinking for anyone who is positive that our overall goaltending will be improved this season. But it is hard to make any arrangement that Samsonov isn’t an upgrade on Mrazek.

 

[Racer88]

I think Dubas has a hierarchy or priority of positions in mind which roughly corresponds with his understanding of each position. Goaltending happens to be at the bottom of that list so he assigns a Money Ball approach to getting cheap interchangeable parts that can do what Francouz or Kuemper did in Colorado.

Agree but it is risky……..the clock is ticking on Matthews and Nylander for sure and Marner not long after that