Confirmed with Link: TOR sign G Ilya Samsonov to 1 year, 1.8M deal

[usernamezrhardtodo]

The one year deal seems fruitless

If anything positive happens he either
A. Prices himself out and goes
B. Forces Dubas to potentially pay to dump murray

Disclaimer: key word is potentially also known as hypothetical and not a statement of fact.

I am pretty sure he is still an RFA at the end of this 1yr deal. So it might be ok for us because we still have control over him to some extent. He could go to arb and win..but that would mean he did well for us. I think he might be the long term solution for us, which is an odd way to get your long term goalie...but if it works...no complaints from me.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

The one year deal seems fruitless

If anything positive happens he either
A. Prices himself out and goes
B. Forces Dubas to potentially pay to dump murray

Disclaimer: key word is potentially also known as hypothetical and not a statement of fact.

I've got some good news for you, sir:

This is the best scenario - if he proves himself, then you make space knowing that you have his rights. If he fails, it's just 1 year.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

I've got some good news for you, sir:

View attachment 576436

This is the best scenario - if he proves himself, then you make space knowing that you have his rights. If he fails, it's just 1 year.

Agreed.. at worst you have a 2.25 ish back-up on a 1 year deal with the QO

 

[Morbo]

yeah Samsonov is a decent piece of business. he's got the tools, let's see if the Leafs can fix his toolbox.

 

[Buds17]

The one year deal seems fruitless

If anything positive happens he either
A. Prices himself out and goes
B. Forces Dubas to potentially pay to dump murray

Disclaimer: key word is potentially also known as hypothetical and not a statement of fact.

The absence of term is obviously a low risk, low reward scenario for the Leafs. That stated, the AAV is definitely a good one for the team. It likely would have proven too tough for Dubas to negotiate against the pending arbitration and new situation.

 

[Menzinger]

I am pretty sure he is still an RFA at the end of this 1yr deal. So it might be ok for us because we still have control over him to some extent. He could go to arb and win..but that would mean he did well for us. I think he might be the long term solution for us, which is an odd way to get your long term goalie...but if it works...no complaints from me.

And it's not even that high of a qualifying offer. He's still Leafs property or becomes a high valuable trade asset if he has a breakout season

 

[Nineteen67]

This might be the safer move in net and a better safety net. This is move where Dubas hedged his bet and may have minimized the risk coming with Murray.

Samsonov might be a better replacement for Campbell and Murray more like Mrazek. I wouldn't be surprised if Ilya plays more games this year of the 2 goalies and we see a 50/30 game split.

Samsonov did have a rough year in 2021-22, and lost in 5 games to Florida in round #1 last year and despite being a RFA the Caps walked away from him without a qualifying offer. However I agree this might be Dubas best move this offseason and Leafs caught a break because Caps cut him loose,.

However what you have to like here is he was a former 1st round drafted capital player #22 overall in 2015 (ahead of players like Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Sebastian Aho). So not to long somebody thought this was a high-end prospect (Andrei Vasilevskiy went #19 overall a few drafts earlier in a similar draft range).

Ive always assumed Samsonov would be the #1 G.

 

[ULF_55]

And it's not even that high of a qualifying offer. He's still Leafs property or becomes a high valuable trade asset if he has a breakout season

If he has a positive break-out season, the buyout for Murray next year is $688k and then $2mm.

Easily make it work for a rising star keeper.

 

[Mess]

Ive always assumed Samsonov would be the #1 G.

If you consider health injury history than Samsonov is the safer bet to play more games for the Leafs next year. IMO

The concern being Samsonov as front line defense of a 100 point playoff qualifying Washington team in 44 games recorded a .896 sv% (45th OA) & GAA of 3.02 (35th) and Goals saved above expected -12.1 (107th).

The Caps were #14 OA in goals against with 245 and the Leafs were #18th OA with 253.
&
Then Washington got wiped out in 5 games in round #1 to Florida with Samsonov in net.

Samsonov last year did not make the key saves when needed and his team has to bail him out offensively, but that strategy fails come playoff time. Its a game of Russian Roulette (get it pun intended ) with Samsonov that your offense will outscore your expected goals against.

You can see why Washington cut him loose as an RFA, to go all in on Darcy Kuemper (the Cup winning goalie) who was a top 5 in goals saved above expected +21.0 with a .921 sv% (5th best) and .254 GAA (10th), because they have Cup aspirations and our Leafs are attempting a reclamation project (with the longest playoff losing streak).

If one puts any value into stats and performance then the risk/reward factor with Samsonov might not be any better than Matt Murray.

 

[ULF_55]

Playoffs

 

[Tarmore]

Playoffs

View attachment 576541
View attachment 576542

From a save% of .899 one year to a .912 is a dramatic improvement! If he makes half that jump again on the Leafs it would be amazing.

 

[Torontonian]

I think this will be a good bet, I can see him putting up a solid .910 save% and around 2.65 GA. Theres no doubt in my mind he's going to be starting a majority of the games this year, Murray will get hurt after 15 games and Samsonov will run with it.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I kind of wish we had another Russian on the team to help ease his transition to the team. Obviously Washington has always had a few. Unless we add someone late, this will be the first year in awhile we haven't had a Russian skater.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Cautiously optimistic about him breaking out with us this year with the Caps not giving him a qo being the fuel. It would be amazing to luck our way into a young, stud goalie for a change. He's got the tools for sure.

And as others have said, if he puts up the numbers this year you make room for him. We've been looking for a goalie for awhile now. Would be stupid to let him walk in that scenario.

 

[Nineteen67]

If you consider health injury history than Samsonov is the safer bet to play more games for the Leafs next year. IMO

The concern being Samsonov as front line defense of a 100 point playoff qualifying Washington team in 44 games recorded a .896 sv% (45th OA) & GAA of 3.02 (35th) and Goals saved above expected -12.1 (107th).

The Caps were #14 OA in goals against with 245 and the Leafs were #18th OA with 253.
&
Then Washington got wiped out in 5 games in round #1 to Florida with Samsonov in net.

Samsonov last year did not make the key saves when needed and his team has to bail him out offensively, but that strategy fails come playoff time. Its a game of Russian Roulette (get it pun intended ) with Samsonov that your offense will outscore your expected goals against.

You can see why Washington cut him loose as an RFA, to go all in on Darcy Kuemper (the Cup winning goalie) who was a top 5 in goals saved above expected +21.0 with a .921 sv% (5th best) and .254 GAA (10th), because they have Cup aspirations and our Leafs are attempting a reclamation project (with the longest playoff losing streak).

If one puts any value into stats and performance then the risk/reward factor with Samsonov might not be any better than Matt Murray.

I think he has issues, but his best ability might be his availability, which will go a long way in determining who plays.

 

[Mess]

Playoffs

View attachment 576541
View attachment 576542

Samsonov 7 games started in the last 2 playoffs with 1 win and 6 losses matches Matt Murray last 2 playoff record. (this done on former Cup winners with OV and Crosby and Malkin in front of them).

Leafs new goalies playoff record in last 4 series = 2 wins and 12 losses.

Caps and Pens say "Goodbye" and Leafs say "Hello" .. That almost sounds like a Beetles song .

You say, "Goodbye" and I say, "Hello, hello, hello", I don't know why you say, "Goodbye", I say, "Hello" ..... Ironically Released: 1967 the year Leafs said "Goodbye" to the Stanley Cup.

This is Leafs plan to end their round #1 losses? Interesting !!!

Reverse Psychology ?

 

[LeafEgo]

Cautiously optimistic about him breaking out with us this year with the Caps not giving him a qo being the fuel. It would be amazing to luck our way into a young, stud goalie for a change. He's got the tools for sure.

And as others have said, if he puts up the numbers this year you make room for him. We've been looking for a goalie for awhile now. Would be stupid to let him walk in that scenario.

Sammy is the perfect #2 acquisition. Behind the Leafs it seems reasonable to expect at a minimum he is sufficient as a back up, with the obvious upside as he moves into his late 20s. As a #1 for next year it gets a bit dicey.

Certainly strange Caps tossed him aside - have to wonder there. Hopefully just a mutual feeling that it was time to move on.

 

[Racer88]

Samsonov 7 games started in the last 2 playoffs with 1 win and 6 losses matches Matt Murray last 2 playoff record. (this done on former Cup winners with OV and Crosby and Malkin in front of them).

Leafs new goalies playoff record in last 4 series = 2 wins and 12 losses.

Caps and Pens say "Goodbye" and Leafs say "Hello" .. That almost sounds like a Beetles song .

You say, "Goodbye" and I say, "Hello, hello, hello", I don't know why you say, "Goodbye", I say, "Hello" ..... Ironically Released: 1967 the year Leafs said "Goodbye" to the Stanley Cup.

This is Leafs plan to end their round #1 losses? Interesting !!!

Reverse Psychology ?

This is the situation we find ourselves in when the GM treats goaltending like an afterthough.

 

[socko]

I don't know much about Samsonov haven't really followed his career. Matt Murray I've seen. I was rooting hard for Kessel those few years in Pittsburgh to the point I watched all of their playoff games and some of the regular season ones. Murray pretty much took the job from a faltering Fleury. Much like Campbell did here. I still think it's crazy for a Stanley Cup wannabe to go into a must win season, (I mean Dubas has to be on his last chance right? Please.) with such afterthought / retreads / yesterdays news in goal. Sounds like the hype on this Samsonov is pretty good, let's hope it's more than hype. If the Leafs fall on their face this year, not only could it be the end of Dubas, but it could influence Matthews to leave as well. Betting the future on Matt Murray, just seems like Dubas's final screw over to me. That guy sucks.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I thought Samsonov had some promise when he first broke in. But, he hasn't had a stellar career so far.

All we can do is hope.

I still find it amazing that we find ourselves in our current position with goaltending. That's a big roll of the dice with a tandem of Murray/Samsonov. Makes me wonder about our GM and the guy above him for sure.

 

[saltming]

Samsonov 7 games started in the last 2 playoffs with 1 win and 6 losses matches Matt Murray last 2 playoff record. (this done on former Cup winners with OV and Crosby and Malkin in front of them).

Leafs new goalies playoff record in last 4 series = 2 wins and 12 losses.

Caps and Pens say "Goodbye" and Leafs say "Hello" .. That almost sounds like a Beetles song .

You say, "Goodbye" and I say, "Hello, hello, hello", I don't know why you say, "Goodbye", I say, "Hello" ..... Ironically Released: 1967 the year Leafs said "Goodbye" to the Stanley Cup.

This is Leafs plan to end their round #1 losses? Interesting !!!

Reverse Psychology ?

So your implication through both the goalie threads is these goalies both under perform and the Leafs choosing them is futile because these goalies are bad and that's it.
If you haven't educated yourself on the adjustments these goalies have made in their styles of play listen to this Woodley on the newest tandem of Murray and Samsonov and their journey in the NHL
If you have listened and refuse to acknowledge it in your posts, you are coming off as biased. I have replied to some of your posts with this same point and you have not replied to those.
We know what they have done in the past, and you belittling Murray's cup wins to highlight his lows comes off as unfair to most, because if you are bringing up the past, all of it should be fair game.
In that interview you will hear what an unbiased report sounds like.
Woodley breaks down Murray's success with the pens and why it worked. He continues to talk about why Murray's style then became outdated and covers what Murray is doing to fix that and how the Leafs new goalie coach is a very good fit for him. Also, he talks about Murray's injuries as a point of concern, but again balances that out exposing the whys and possibilies ie the doctor causing the injury, that would make Murray less eager to play for a team that can't look after him.
He also breaks down samsonov style, reasons for his struggles and that he has also implemented a change in his style more suitable to NHL hockey. Oh ya! Woodley also concludes that our new goalie coach has all the tools to help samsonov improve.
This is still a case where the results will speak, so we have to sit back and wait, but your posts of abandon all hope because we have 2 flawed goalies is false. Yes they are flawed but it not only can be fixed, they have already started to fixing the issues with their play style AND the Leafs now have a very capable goalie coach to bring this to fruition.
Logically there is a good chance both these guys have an uptick in performance. The logic comes from the fact that both have adjusted their playing style to more suit today's game and the Leafs now have a competent goalie coach and department.
You've posted you're a realist, then incorporate that data into your future post please. Otherwise it's pessimistic rhetoric you're posting.

 

[Anthrax442]

This is the situation we find ourselves in when the GM treats goaltending like an afterthough.

There are not many star goalies in the league anymore. There are only a few of Vasi and Shesterkin caliber. .

Most other teams have either "just okay" or "roll of dice" situation. At least we have 2 of the roll the dice guys.

 

[saltming]

There are not many star goalies in the league anymore. There are only a few of Vasi and Shesterkin caliber. .

Most other teams have either "just okay" or "roll of dice" situation. At least we have 2 of the roll the dice guys.

Sorokin is the only one I can think that can challenge to gain that level.
I would mention price but who knows what he will come back as.

I will add that samsonov was being compared to shesterkin and sorokin so I will keep my fingers crossed and make sacrifices to the hockey God's that it is so

 

[socko]

There are not many star goalies in the league anymore. There are only a few of Vasi and Shesterkin caliber. .

Most other teams have either "just okay" or "roll of dice" situation. At least we have 2 of the roll the dice guys.

We lost a 0.915 and got two 0.900s. That's not a win. Unless we can add them together for 1.8.

 

[Mess]

So your implication through both the goalie threads is these goalies both under perform and the Leafs choosing them is futile because these goalies are bad and that's it.

If you have listened and refuse to acknowledge it in your posts, you are coming off as biased. I have replied to some of your posts with this same point and you have not replied to those.

You've posted you're a realist, then incorporate that data into your future post please. Otherwise it's pessimistic rhetoric you're posting.

Okay here is the "Realist" data you have requested.

Goal: The Leafs are looking for a goalie that can steal them a game and playoff series so what better stat than "Goals Saved above Expected" to show that ?

Here are the top 12 goalies from last year and then a couple more including Samsonov.


NHL Goaltending Leaders Goals Saved above Expected - Season 2021-22

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]Petr Mrazek[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]46.38[/TD]

[TD]

-11.60​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.668​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.10​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Samsonov in front of a 100 point team last year and recent Cup winning team Caps posted the #107 worst goals saved above expected at -12.10 and even worse that Mrazek @ -11.60 (whom the Leafs dumped to improve.

Is that unbiased enough or do you need to know also Samsonov in his last 7 playoff starts has a record of 1-6 losing to Boston in 5 (in 2021) and Florida in 6 (in 2022). So 1 playoff game win over the past 2 seasons agaisnt Leafs own Atlantic opponents.

So your turn, where is the data supporting the claim that this is an upgrade in net for the Leafs, when statistically Samsonov (.899 sv%) wasn't any better than Mrazek (.889 sv%) who was seen as major disappointment?

I get the fact that as Leaf fans we're all starving for playoff success, and we have no choice but , and hope for the best, but posting recent stats should not make one optimistic either, as they present as pessimistic instead.