Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

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That's the thing though, it wasn't just 1 bad goal. It was 1 bad goal at the worst time in all of the deciding games. Fred had an 0-4 record with the Ducks in deciding games...he then carried it over to the Leafs. Jack was simply horrible in OT against Montreal after we were rocking them and then let in a softie in game 7. If it was just 1x...Yes I would agree with you...but it wasn't 1x....it was all the time.
This is the issue. They’re not going talk about it publicly but management decided they didn’t believe in their goalies in the clutch. They believe Jack was good enough to get the, to the dance and then break their hearts. They could be wrong and Jack could win the Conn Smythe in Edmonton but they have to act on that belief.

Of course moving on from the goalie coach may mean they lay the blame there, or maybe they are grasping at straws. Hopefully the new coaching and new goalies turn into something.

with Price and Lehner down already, getting a goalie at camp wouldn’t have worked out either
 
I don't think you even understand the concept of small sample size and one random stat and as it applies here with actual context.
First the sample size is so small it doesn't even allow Murray to face every team even a single time. Everybody understands the smaller the sample size the less trustworthy the results.
Murray played only 20 games last year (< 1/4 a season) in those 20 games he let in 60 goals on the 640 shots he faced...
Based on someone subjectively carving up Ozone and Dzone and assigning a fictions % based on where a shot is coming from decides if it should be a save or goal.
So it was determined that Murray should have allowed 63.16 goals on the season based on tracking shot location instead of 60 actual which gives him a whooping magnificent 3.2 saves above expected.
So based on a mere 20 game sample that means Murray on average made 1 magnificent unexpected marvelous save every 6-7 games from a HDSC area.
Its really those 3 total Saves above expected you're hanging your hat on. Murray wins and everything else doesn't matter?
If Murray plays in only 20 games next year and makes only 3 saves above expected the Leafs are in a world of trouble, if he repeats his 5 wins, GAA and SV%, and everyone else needs to play the other 62 games.
Campbell played in 49 games (> 1/2 a season) faced 1430 shots allowing 123 GA and based on shot location should have given up only 120.66. So he gave up a mere +2-3 more goals than expected on a volume of over double the shots Murray faced, in over double the games Murray played.
Based on Murray's .906 sv% had he faced the same volume of shots 1430 (instead of 640) he would have made 1296 saves and allowed 135 GA compared to Campbell at 123 GA.. His +3 goals saved above expected every 20 games would not have saved him.
The NHL does track actual verifiable stats that are not subjective like Shots. Saves, SV% and GAA and WIns and SO. There is no subjectivity involved if the goalie either makes a save or lets a goal in. In all the real stats Campbell >> Murray. In the pretend stats based on shot location and shoulda woulda coulda saved it, on limited sample size Murray wins, but its so negligible its almost irrelevant.
I'm not the one having trouble with samples, or utilizing this stat properly, or applying proper context.

First off, it's the smaller the sample size, the more variable the results. That doesn't mean the results you have in that sample are wrong. You have to be careful about extrapolating outward too much from that, but that's a concern for goaltending metrics in general. It's certainly not okay to look at last season's results for these players, and then randomly add on a sample from 2 years ago for only one player because Murray having the better results didn't fit your argument.

Second, GSAx is a "real stat". It is not "fictions" (I assume you meant fictitious) or "pretend". It is in fact much more accurate than what you call "actual verifiable stats", and you seemed to have no problem selectively using it yourself in your post and throughout the summer. Some of those "actual verifiable stats" you named, like shots and wins, aren't even goalie stats. In fact, SV% is the only one you named that's really all that relevant to goaltender performance at all, and that doesn't factor in shot quality or the massive contrast in defensive performance in front that we have in this situation. Expected and shot quality metrics are based on extensively supported and verified methodology, and are often much more complex than what you're suggesting.

Third, these calculations you tried to do randomly mixing together SV% and GSAx to argue that Murray would be at a negative with the same sample is just... so wrong. The difference between Murray's results and Campbell's results last year were about 5 goals, not 3 saves, and while we probably shouldn't be extrapolating results to bigger samples, if we were extrapolating Murray's performance to Campbell's sample like you're trying to do, Murray would have let in over 10 goals less.

Does all of this mean that Murray is definitely the better goalie and will do better than Campbell next year? No, of course not, but it also doesn't mean that Campbell is the better goalie and will do better than Murray next year, and if we're going to discuss their recent sample, we should do so accurately and appropriately. In truth, both Murray and Campbell are in a similar tier of goalies where, like most goalies in the league, they could put up positive or negative results next year.

At this point, we can only really wait and see, but this idea that Campbell (5 x 5m, signed until 35, limited history, coming off negative result sample) is somehow a much better option than Murray (2 x 4.7m, signed until 30, history of high end play/two cups/big moment performance, coming off positive result sample) does not hold up.
 
Goalie comparison Last year Goalie group vs this year new Goalie group based on 2021-22 stats based on actual win-loss record by goalies.

Former goalies
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell + Mrazek + Kallgren + Woll + Hutchenson = 82 games 54 wins 21 losses 7 OTL = 115 points [New Franchise Record]


including [Campbell .. 49 games 31 - 9 - 6 record (= 68 points) & Mrazek 20 games 12 - 6 - 0 record (= 24 points) ]

vs

New Goalies
-----------------------------------------------------------
Ilya Samsonov ...... 44 games .. 23-12-5 record = 51 points
Erik Kallgren ...........14 games .... 8-4-1 record = 17 points
Matt Murray .......... 20 games .....5-12-2 record = 12 points
Joseph Woll ............. 4 games .....3-1-0 record = 6 points

Total ................. 82 games .. 39 wins 29 losses 8 OTL = 86 points.

Total : Last year's goalies .. 82 games & 115 points - New goalies ... 82 games & 86 points = - 29 points (- 15 less wins).


The downgrade from Campbell & Mrazek to Murray & Samsonov would have resulted in -29 point reduction and non playoff team and just slightly above a .500 hockey team based on 2021-22 results.


When you replace your starting goalie that played in 49 games and contributed 31 wins with a contract dump player that played in only 20 games and recorded 5 wins on the season the impact on your team in the standings would be significant as they results above show.

PS. Matt Murray is going to need MUCH more than +3.2 GSAx (an extra 3 goals saved above expected on the season) to close this 29 point standings drop gap on personnel change.
 
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The downgrade from Campbell & Mrazek to Murray & Samsonov would have resulted in -29 point reduction and non playoff team and just slightly above a .500 hockey team.
No, it wouldn't have. :facepalm:

1. Records are team stats, not goalie stats. You can't just take the records that goalies put up behind other worse teams (including a bottom feeder) and pretend that their records would be the same playing behind one of the best teams in the league. We put up a crazy good record behind horrific goaltending last year.

2. You didn't even do this right. The records you combined for "new goalies" don't even add up to 82 games. 39 + 29 + 8 is 76 games.

3. Replacing the impacts of Campbell/Mrazek last year with Murray/Samsonov last year would actually see us allow 5 less goals, which would probably improve our record if anything.
 
Not happy with the trade in isolation, but the tandem has some good upside and this may have been the best option for us this offseason.

This is 10x better than Campbell, Husso, Georgiev, Talbot, etc...
10x better?
Talbot was 13-1-3 down the stretch last year.
 
10x better?
Talbot was 13-1-3 down the stretch last year.
he had a .911 last year, is 35, and was 40th in the league in GSAx/60, but he played on a good team.

10x is clearly an exaggeration, but there weren't good goalies available, we have the highest risk, and highest reward pairing possible.
 
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No, it wouldn't have. :facepalm:

1. Records are team stats, not goalie stats. You can't just take the records that goalies put up behind other worse teams (including a bottom feeder) and pretend that their records would be the same playing behind one of the best teams in the league. We put up a crazy good record behind horrific goaltending last year.

2. You didn't even do this right. The records you combined for "new goalies" don't even add up to 82 games. 39 + 29 + 8 is 76 games.

3. Replacing the impacts of Campbell/Mrazek last year with Murray/Samsonov last year would actually see us allow 5 less goals, which would probably improve our record if anything.
I really don’t understand how people can’t understand this
 
Goalie comparison Last year Goalie group vs this year new Goalie group based on 2021-22 stats.

Former goalies
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell + Mrazek + Kallgren + Woll + Hutchenson = 82 games 54 wins 21 losses 7 OTL = 115 points [New Franchise Record]

vs


New Goalies
-----------------------------------------------------------
Ilya Samsonov ...... 44 games .. 23-12-5 record = 51 point
Erik Kallgren ...........14 games .... 8-4-1 record = 17 points
Matt Murray .......... 20 games .....5-12-2 record = 12 points
Joseph Woll ............. 4 games .....3-1-0 record = 6 points

Total ................. 82 games .. 39 wins 29 losses 8 OTL = 86 points.

Total : Last year's goalies .. 82 games & 115 points - New goalies ... 82 games & 86 points = - 29 points (- 15 less wins).


The downgrade from Campbell & Mrazek to Murray & Samsonov would have resulted in -29 point reduction and non playoff team and just slightly above a .500 hockey team.

PS. Matt Murray is going to need MUCH more than +3.2 GSAx (an extra 3 goals saved above expected on the season) to close this 29 point standings drop gap on personnel change.
Up for a little over/under bet on that 86 point mark for the Leafs this year?
 
Isn't it ironic that in an effort to justify what might be the worse goalie tandem in the NHL of Murray/Samsonov, there is an attack on Jack Campbell and why he wasn't the answer.

While I agree Campbell may not have been the answer, isn't Dubas the one who brought him on board in the first place?

The Soo Greyhounds connection got him overly excited (seemingly again with Matt Murray) and now that experiment failed, the usual suspects are now using a failed experiment by wonder-boy to justify this disaster waiting to happen.
 
Goalie comparison Last year Goalie group vs this year new Goalie group based on 2021-22 stats based on actual win-loss record by goalies.

Former goalies
--------------------------------------------------------------
Campbell + Mrazek + Kallgren + Woll + Hutchenson = 82 games 54 wins 21 losses 7 OTL = 115 points [New Franchise Record]


including [Campbell .. 49 games 31 - 9 - 6 record (= 68 points) & Mrazek 20 games 12 - 6 - 0 record (= 24 points) ]

vs

New Goalies
-----------------------------------------------------------
Ilya Samsonov ...... 44 games .. 23-12-5 record = 51 points
Erik Kallgren ...........14 games .... 8-4-1 record = 17 points
Matt Murray .......... 20 games .....5-12-2 record = 12 points
Joseph Woll ............. 4 games .....3-1-0 record = 6 points

Total ................. 82 games .. 39 wins 29 losses 8 OTL = 86 points.

Total : Last year's goalies .. 82 games & 115 points - New goalies ... 82 games & 86 points = - 29 points (- 15 less wins).


The downgrade from Campbell & Mrazek to Murray & Samsonov would have resulted in -29 point reduction and non playoff team and just slightly above a .500 hockey team based on 2021-22 results.


When you replace your starting goalie that played in 49 games and contributed 31 wins with a contract dump player that played in only 20 games and recorded 5 wins on the season the impact on your team in the standings would be significant as they results above show.

PS. Matt Murray is going to need MUCH more than +3.2 GSAx (an extra 3 goals saved above expected on the season) to close this 29 point standings drop gap on personnel change.
you cant compare points earned by goalies that played on way inferior teams, and logically use that as a point, that one option is better than another.
Campbell, Oettinger, and Hellebuyck all had very similar stats last season with Campbell having the most wins (regular season) and top save % ...would you under any circumstance take Campbell over either of those 2 goalies?

Now, Campbell's biggest flaw as a goalie as I see it is his scrambling after making an initial save and not controlling the rebound. he's always losing site of the puck in his crease, and makes some tremendous looking saves (ala Hasek) when he's flopping around in the paint, but, the Oilers are even worse than the Leafs as far as clearing the puck out from in front of the net, so, Campbell could be in for quite a few rough patches/games/streaks.

I think betting the season on Murray was insane and I'm not in favor of that move at all, though Samsonov was high on my want list.
Net is our biggest question mark right now.

Isn't it ironic that in an effort to justify what might be the worse goalie tandem in the NHL of Murray/Samsonov, there is an attack on Jack Campbell and why he wasn't the answer.

While I agree Campbell may not have been the answer, isn't Dubas the one who brought him on board in the first place?

The Soo Greyhounds connection got him overly excited (seemingly again with Matt Murray) and now that experiment failed, the usual suspects are now using a failed experiment by wonder-boy to justify this disaster waiting to happen.
Campbell was brought in as a backup with upside, as our depth was Hutch... that was a good move, and then he got a shot, and was 'okay'
...not a fan of the Murray deal at all though, but, who knows what the future will bring.
maybe he's expecting the first 2 seasons on the Pens Murray, but, i'm expecting the Sens version, and that Samsonov will be the primary starter
 
you cant compare points earned by goalies that played on way inferior teams, and logically use that as a point, that one option is better than another.

I think betting the season on Murray was insane and I'm not in favor of that move at all, though Samsonov was high on my want list.
Net is our biggest question mark right now.

What about comparing goalies that played on the same inferior teams.

2021-22 Season

Anton Forsberg - OTT ... 46 games 22 wins 17 losses 4 OTL 2 SO with 2.82 GAA & 0.917 sv% and GSAx of +8.5 (16th best)
vs
Matt Murray - OTT ....... 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL 0 SO with 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% and GSAx of +3.2 (28th overall)

Why would anyone think Murray is the better choice here and when both played on the same team and why would anyone use Murray +3.2 GSAx as something special vs +8.5 and played double the games?

So what is Murray's excuse verses his own teammate?

Ilya Samsonov on a 100 point Washington playoff team.

2021-22 .. Washington ... 44 games 23 wins 12 losses 5 OTL 0 SO with 3.02 GAA & 0.896 sv% and GSAx of -12.1 (107 overall)

Samsonov GAA wasn't much different then Murray's poor season even worse sv% and his goals saved above expected at -12 among the worst marks in the NHL.
vs
Jack Campbell ... 49 games 31 wins 9 losses 6 OTL 5 SO with 2.64 GAA & 0.914 with a GSAx -2.3.
 
Some people don't like this stat but I think its telling.
There was some awesome suppression of HD shots by Matthews and he had a higher GA stat than the eye and statistical tests merited. That was because of poor goaltending period.
I agree. Campbell is 6'4" just like Vasilevskiy but plays so small in net.
 
What about comparing goalies that played on the same inferior teams.
You shouldn't be comparing records for anybody, because it's not a goalie stat.
What does Forsberg have to do with anything? Ottawa also played 3 goalies other than Murray last year. Why did you ignore the two that had worse seasons than Murray?
Why would anyone think Murray is the better choice here
Because aside from the slightly higher GSAx/60 in 2021-2022, Forsberg has done a whole lot of nothing throughout his entire career.
Samsonov GAA wasn't much different then Murray's poor season even worse sv% and his goals saved above expected at -12 among the worst marks in the NHL.
vs
Jack Campbell ... 49 games 31 wins 9 losses 6 OTL 5 SO with 2.64 GAA & 0.914 with a GSAx -2.3.
Murray didn't have a poor season, and while Samsonov didn't have a great year, he's still relatively young with upside, and is replacing Mrazek, not Campbell.
 
You shouldn't be comparing records for anybody, because it's not a goalie stat.
What does Forsberg have to do with anything? Ottawa also played 3 goalies other than Murray last year. Why did you ignore the two that had worse seasons than Murray?

Because aside from the slightly higher GSAx/60 in 2021-2022, Forsberg has done a whole lot of nothing throughout his entire career.

Murray didn't have a poor season, and while Samsonov didn't have a great year, he's still relatively young with upside, and is replacing Mrazek, not Campbell.
You're stalwart! @Mess obviously doesn't respond to posts that he doesn't like but you keep at him. I gave up but I do support your commitment
:cheers:
 
Isn't it ironic that in an effort to justify what might be the worse goalie tandem in the NHL of Murray/Samsonov, there is an attack on Jack Campbell and why he wasn't the answer.

While I agree Campbell may not have been the answer, isn't Dubas the one who brought him on board in the first place?

The Soo Greyhounds connection got him overly excited (seemingly again with Matt Murray) and now that experiment failed, the usual suspects are now using a failed experiment by wonder-boy to justify this disaster waiting to happen.

The propaganda machine is running full steam ahead to convince us that Campbell sucked and that the combo of Murray and samsonov are better.

You'd think most would be able to see through this garbage rather easily but that appears to not be the case.

Just because you are a fan of the team doesn't mean you have to blindly worship and belive everything they tell you.

10x better?
Talbot was 13-1-3 down the stretch last year.

Don't expect rational and logical arguments from the dubas fan boys.

The fact they think samsonov and murray are a good tandem is honestly hilarious.
 
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The propaganda machine is running full steam ahead to convince us that Campbell sucked and that the combo of Murray and samsonov are better.

You'd think most would be able to see through this garbage rather easily but that appears to not be the case.

Just because you are a fan of the team doesn't mean you have to blindly worship and belive everything they tell you.

You're 100% correct but I don't necessarily recommend applying this type of filter to all official media you consume. It can be unsettling to the core. You eventually feel like you're in a neverending Twilight Zone episode.

In this particular case, seeing through the propaganda means a certain level of resignation about the team's actual state. And that's a wee bit painful.
 
The propaganda machine is running full steam ahead to convince us that Campbell sucked and that the combo of Murray and samsonov are better.

Just because you are a fan of the team doesn't mean you have to blindly worship and belive everything they tell you.
Could you link a quote from the Toronto Maple Leafs organization that they said Murray/samsonov is better than Campbell/Mrazek please to support this claim.
 
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