Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Mess]

Was any playoff team other than the Leafs even interested in Murray? It seems like there was an effort to trade him from one tanking team (Ottawa) to another tanking team (Buffalo) probably because Ottawa feels they're on the upswing.

How often would a team be willing to trade a goalie that could come back to bite them within their same Division ?

Ottawa was freely willing to dump Murray's contract into their own Atlantic Div to teams Buffalo and Toronto, that they will be in direction competition for playoff spots, and willing to add draft capital and retain salary to help assist its successful completion even.

That suggest that Ottawa now having upgraded their goaltending with Cam Talbot, must not fear, and must feel they're offering their arch Div rivals a boat anchor and not a life ring and are closing the gap rather then widening it in the standings IMO..

The Battle on Ontario will be taking on a new twist now!!

Generally speaking its preferable when trading of valued players end up outside the Conference if possible, or at least outside the Div.

 

[LeafEgo]

Where we likely disagree here is whether it's 'Art' vs 'luck'

Everything involves luck. But managing a franchise is complex, and the objectives of a rebuild, which don't include winning a cup, are very real. You can perform well or poorly and that can be assessed. Luck is involved.

'Tanking ain't easy', as the saying goes. Or maybe it's not a saying.

 

[The Iceman]

Freddy Andersen was a legit #1 starting NHL goalie as he proved in both games played and wins in a season. Jack Campbell was always at best a backup goalie with tandem abilities to play roughly 1/2 a season.

The reason the Leafs have moved on from both these goalies is they came up short in the playoffs and haven't come up big in that must win game.

Past Leaf Goalie Playoff records in their last 2 playoffs

2018-19 .. Andersen .. Boston vs Tor ........ Result: Bruins in 7 ... Andersen's record 3 wins 4 losses
2019-20 .. Andersen .. Toronto vs CBJ ...... Result: CBJ in 5 ....... Andersen's record 2 wins 3 losses

Andersen's record combined 5 wins 7 losses ... Lost in Round #1 X 2 = NEXT !!!

2020-21 .. Campbell .. Toronto vs Montreal ...... Result: Montreal in 7 ...... Campbell's record 3 wins 4 losses
2021-22 . Campbell .. Toronto vs Tampa Bay ... Result : Tampa in 7 ........... Campbell's record 3 wins 4 losses

Campbell's record combined 6 wins 8 losses .. Lost in Round # 1 X 2 = NEXT !!!!

Replacement Goalies Playoff records in their last 2 playoffs

Pittsburgh wins 2016 & 2017 Stanley Cups

2018-19 .. Murray .. Pittsburgh vs NYI .............. Result NYI in 4 ................... Murray record 0 wins 4 losses
2019-20 .. Murray .. Pittsburgh vs Montreal .. Result: Montreal in 4 ........ Murray record 1 win 3 losses

Murray's record combined 1 win 7 losses .. Lost in Round #1 X 2 ... Help !!!! (Murray dealt to OTTAWA)

Washington win 2018 Stanley Cup

2020-21 .. Samsonov .. Washington vs Boston ...... Result: Boston in 5 ...... Samsonov's record 0 wins 3 losses
2021-22 . Samsonov .. Washington vs Florida ........Result: Florida in 6 ....... Sansonov's record 1 win 4 losses

Samsonov's record combined 1 win 7 losses .. Lost in Round #1 X 2 ..... Help !!!! (Samsonov released no QO)

Is the grass greener when the replacement players were doing far worse over these same 4 overlapping playoff years for Leafs?

Leafs goalies were losing just and many playoff games, the key here is they were also winning far more and getting the series to deciding games.

Career Murray is 29-21 or in otherwords 28-14 in playoff games you decided not to post about above LOL.
.921 save% in the NHL playoffs.

He had a .906 when he went 0-4 in 2018-19
And had a .914 when he went 1-2 in 2019-20 (Not sure where you got 1-3)

in fact his playoff save % every playoff year has been solid to very good
.923
.937
.908
.906
.914
I think the Leafs would take this every day for playoff performance.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I dont buy that excuse. The Campbell Freddy chokes were nothing unusual compared to all the top goalies in the league in the playoffs. In some cases they pale in comparison. Neither ever even lost the net.

Winning teams play through that. Folks constantly remark how Tampa always kept composure - a bad goal, a bad game, down in the series, no problem. And look at Kuemper this year.

If you're blaming the goalie for one bad goal at the wrong time you never had a chance.

That's the thing though, it wasn't just 1 bad goal. It was 1 bad goal at the worst time in all of the deciding games. Fred had an 0-4 record with the Ducks in deciding games...he then carried it over to the Leafs. Jack was simply horrible in OT against Montreal after we were rocking them and then let in a softie in game 7. If it was just 1x...Yes I would agree with you...but it wasn't 1x....it was all the time.

 

[Mess]

The comparison of Murray to Campbell last year is an apples to oranges comparison because Murray due to injury and play only appeared in 20 games (the equivalent of < 1/4 a NHL season), while Campbell appeared in 49 games (the equivalent of > 1/2 a NHL season) .. Murray small sample size only facing 640 shots is a lot different then Campbell asked to stop > 1400. The smaller the sample size the more volatile the results.

Murry played 20 games in 2021-22 and 27 games in 2020-21 = 47 games and closer to the Campbell 49 games on last year so combining 2 seasons for Murray a better apples to apples comparison.

Based on these results Murray is a downgrade from Campbell of last year. If the Leafs get similar results they will be in trouble,

However Leafs are hoping for a revival and bounce back year from Murray and these are his 49 games Career Best stats, which came on a Cup winning team.
Murray contribute 7 of the playoff wins, while MA Fleury supplied 9 wins of the 16 needed to hoist the Cup that year coming off the strong regular season.

Leafs are likely hoping for him to meet or beat his Career best Numbers of 2016-17 and if he does Leafs will be a good position.

Based on Win-Loss records both goalies Campbell last year and Murray career best contributed 68 points to the Leafs standings totals.

That still leaves 33 games for the "other goalies" to deliver and Leafs would need roughly PPG results ie. play .500 hockey Win-Loss results to hit the 100 point mark on the season between Samsonov, Woll and Kallgren. As it takes 100 points in the Eastern Conference to qualify for the playoffs these days,.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Based on these results Murray is a downgrade from Campbell of last year.

Based on the results that you showed from last year (+3.2 GSAx for Murray and -2.3 GSAx for Campbell), Murray would be an upgrade on Campbell.

 

[rocketman588]

Career Murray is 29-21 or in otherwords 28-14 in playoff games you decided not to post about above LOL.
.921 save% in the NHL playoffs.

He had a .906 when he went 0-4 in 2018-19
And had a .914 when he went 1-2 in 2019-20 (Not sure where you got 1-3)

in fact his playoff save % every playoff year has been solid to very good
.923
.937
.908
.906
.914
I think the Leafs would take this every day for playoff performance.

Choke "artists" Freddy and jack in the playoffs with the leafs

.915
.896
.922
.936
.934
.897

It's almost like they were already getting that level of goaltending

Based on the results that you showed from last year (+3.2 GSAx for Murray and -2.3 GSAx for Campbell), Murray would be an upgrade on Campbell.

And the year before?

Seems like you're choosing one stat from one year.

Why might you be doing that?

 

[Dekes For Days]

And the year before?

The year before, he did not have a good season. Not sure why that's relevant when discussing last year.

If you'd prefer to look at their respective careers, we could do that.

 

[rocketman588]

The year before, he did not have a good season. Not sure why that's relevant when discussing last year.

If you'd prefer to look at their respective careers, we could do that.

So you're only using one stat for one year for what reason?

Is it because Murray has been garbage by literally every metric for multiple years besides this one thing?

We're discussing who is the better fit for the leafs. You're very willing to trash jack Campbell yet Murray has been one of the worst goalies in the league since the 18-19 season. In every metric but the one you have conveniently chosen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you're only using one stat for one year for what reason?

I used the stat that Mess was discussing (GSAx - the best stat for evaluating goaltender performance), and the season that Mess was discussing (the most recent season).

You were upset with that, so I said I was open to taking a wider look at their respective careers, but it seems like you only want to cherry pick his poor performance from a couple years ago.

 

[Notsince67]

When did we switch from GSAx to wins for the primary measure of goalies?

Ever since people decided to focus on GA for determining the defensive abilities of our forwards. Forget HD shots et al. It feeds a negative narrative somewhere else.

 

[Mess]

Based on the results that you showed from last year (+3.2 GSAx for Murray and -2.3 GSAx for Campbell), Murray would be an upgrade on Campbell.

I don't think you even understand the concept of small sample size and one random stat and as it applies here with actual context.

First the sample size is so small it doesn't even allow Murray to face every team even a single time. Everybody understands the smaller the sample size the less trustworthy the results.

Murray played only 20 games last year (< 1/4 a season) in those 20 games he let in 60 goals on the 640 shots he faced...

Based on someone subjectively carving up Ozone and Dzone and assigning a fictions % based on where a shot is coming from decides if it should be a save or goal.

So it was determined that Murray should have allowed 63.16 goals on the season based on tracking shot location instead of 60 actual which gives him a whooping magnificent 3.2 saves above expected.

So based on a mere 20 game sample that means Murray on average made 1 magnificent unexpected marvelous save every 6-7 games from a HDSC area.
Its really those 3 total Saves above expected you're hanging your hat on. Murray wins and everything else doesn't matter?

If Murray plays in only 20 games next year and makes only 3 saves above expected the Leafs are in a world of trouble, if he repeats his 5 wins, GAA and SV%, and everyone else needs to play the other 62 games.

Campbell played in 49 games (> 1/2 a season) faced 1430 shots allowing 123 GA and based on shot location should have given up only 120.66. So he gave up a mere +2-3 more goals than expected on a volume of over double the shots Murray faced, in over double the games Murray played.

Based on Murray's .906 sv% had he faced the same volume of shots 1430 (instead of 640) he would have made 1296 saves and allowed 135 GA compared to Campbell at 123 GA.. His +3 goals saved above expected every 20 games would not have saved him.

The NHL does track actual verifiable stats that are not subjective like Shots. Saves, SV% and GAA and WIns and SO. There is no subjectivity involved if the goalie either makes a save or lets a goal in. In all the real stats Campbell >> Murray. In the pretend stats based on shot location and shoulda woulda coulda saved it, on limited sample size Murray wins, but its so negligible its almost irrelevant.

 

[Gallagbi]

Ever since people decided to focus on GA for determining the defensive abilities of our forwards. Forget HD shots et al. It feeds a negative narrative somewhere else.

I get the concerns over Murray and questions on the price paid, but man is it ever baffling to see the completely contradictory logic used across threads.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Murray is ultimately a gamble, but he's not automatically going to be a terrible goalie. He has pedigree and talent and I don't think anyone should doubt that he could put in a good performance with a better defense in front of him. The big concern is his health, but I guess the Leafs were never going to be able to get a goalie that they can rely on 100%. I'm still not a fan of the trade, but maybe a goalie with a playoff track record was what they needed.

What's weird is people who believe this was due to cap constraints rather than a purposeful decision by Dubas. He easily could have given comparable money to Campbell (or Husso or Kuemper) and chose not to

 

[rocketman588]

I used the stat that Mess was discussing (GSAx - the best stat for evaluating goaltender performance), and the season that Mess was discussing (the most recent season).

You were upset with that, so I said I was open to taking a wider look at their respective careers, but it seems like you only want to cherry pick his poor performance from a couple years ago.

How was his gsa two years ago?

What about the year before

Career wise hes had one good year since his second in the league.

If you want to discuss his career it's also mostly garbage.

Once again looking stupid defending your hero off of one stat or a point that doesn't make sense

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Leafs have had no playoff success since Pat Quinn.

We can lump all the GM's together since that time.
I'm sure some people still think ? is a good GM.

./delete (oops, thought you said no success *under* Pat Quinn)

 

[bicboi64]

How often would a team be willing to trade a goalie that could come back to bite them within their same Division ?

Ottawa was freely willing to dump Murray's contract into their own Atlantic Div to teams Buffalo and Toronto, that they will be in direction competition for playoff spots, and willing to add draft capital and retain salary to help assist its successful completion even.

That suggest that Ottawa now having upgraded their goaltending with Cam Talbot, must not fear, and must feel they're offering their arch Div rivals a boat anchor and not a life ring and are closing the gap rather then widening it in the standings IMO..

The Battle on Ontario will be taking on a new twist now!!

Generally speaking its preferable when trading of valued players end up outside the Conference if possible, or at least outside the Div.

I think it'll be a high scoring affair. My sens can score with the best of them, but are D is just as shite as it was last year. Matthews will be picking a part Zaitsev's elite defensive prowess and putting up hatty's every game.

Hoping the BoO is at least a competitive scorefest.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How was his gsa two years ago?

It's GSAx, and the same as it was the other 15 times you asked me - not very good. That doesn't mean it's the only thing worth considering. If we look at his most recent sample, we see that he had positive results, and better results than any of our goalies last year. When we look at his career, we see some bad years, but we also see that he has two cups, pedigree, and has shown an ability to put up high-end results and make the big save at the big moment. When we look at the additional context surrounding his situation, there are concerns with his health, but there are also plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

There's a pretty wide range of how Murray could turn out, and I, like most people, am interested to see what happens. You seem to have already made up your mind that it will be a disaster because something something two years ago.

 

[rocketman588]

It's GSAx, and the same as it was the other 15 times you asked me - not very good. That doesn't mean it's the only thing worth considering. If we look at his most recent sample, we see that he had positive results, and better results than any of our goalies last year. When we look at his career, we see some bad years, but we also see that he has two cups, pedigree, and has shown an ability to put up high-end results and make the big save at the big moment. When we look at the additional context surrounding his situation, there are concerns with his health, but there are also plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

There's a pretty wide range of how Murray could turn out, and I, like most people, am interested to see what happens. You seem to have already made up your mind that it will be a disaster because something something two years ago.

So you're just repeatedly quoting that stat for one year because it is the only one where he's not trash in an attempt to gaslight people got it

I keep bringing it up because for some reason you repeatedly try to use it because once again it is the only thing you can use since Murray has been a terrible goalie for a long stretch

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you're just repeatedly quoting that stat for one year because it is the only one where he's not trash in an attempt to gaslight people got it

Once again, I corrected a mistake Mess made in his post, and while doing so, I discussed the stat that Mess was referencing (GSAx - the best stat for evaluating goaltender performance), and the season that Mess was referencing (the most recent season). Then you came in and made a whole bunch of false statements about both myself and Murray for some reason. GSAx is not the only stat where he has not been "trash". Last year is not the only year where he has not been "trash". I haven't "gaslit" anybody.

I discussed his most recent sample. I discussed his career. I discussed additional context. And I discussed why all of the above had me cautiously optimistic, and I was interested to see how it all played out. You focused in exclusively on his worst moments from years ago, and seem adamant that he's a disaster because of it.

 

[andora]

I don't think you even understand the concept of small sample size and one random stat and as it applies here with actual context.

First the sample size is so small it doesn't even allow Murray to face every team even a single time. Everybody understands the smaller the sample size the less trustworthy the results.

Murray played only 20 games last year (< 1/4 a season) in those 20 games he let in 60 goals on the 640 shots he faced...

Based on someone subjectively carving up Ozone and Dzone and assigning a fictions % based on where a shot is coming from decides if it should be a save or goal.

So it was determined that Murray should have allowed 63.16 goals on the season based on tracking shot location instead of 60 actual which gives him a whooping magnificent 3.2 saves above expected.

So based on a mere 20 game sample that means Murray on average made 1 magnificent unexpected marvelous save every 6-7 games from a HDSC area.
Its really those 3 total Saves above expected you're hanging your hat on. Murray wins and everything else doesn't matter?

If Murray plays in only 20 games next year and makes only 3 saves above expected the Leafs are in a world of trouble, if he repeats his 5 wins, GAA and SV%, and everyone else needs to play the other 62 games.

Campbell played in 49 games (> 1/2 a season) faced 1430 shots allowing 123 GA and based on shot location should have given up only 120.66. So he gave up a mere +2-3 more goals than expected on a volume of over double the shots Murray faced, in over double the games Murray played.

Based on Murray's .906 sv% had he faced the same volume of shots 1430 (instead of 640) he would have made 1296 saves and allowed 135 GA compared to Campbell at 123 GA.. His +3 goals saved above expected every 20 games would not have saved him.

The NHL does track actual verifiable stats that are not subjective like Shots. Saves, SV% and GAA and WIns and SO. There is no subjectivity involved if the goalie either makes a save or lets a goal in. In all the real stats Campbell >> Murray. In the pretend stats based on shot location and shoulda woulda coulda saved it, on limited sample size Murray wins, but its so negligible its almost irrelevant.

This is probably the most direct i have seen you in some time and a very interesting way to formulate it

All expected numbers are are projected.. so this is an interesting way to prohect what murray did last year to if he had played more

Basically they come out a wash

But be careful, i am sure there is a world of projected things that would point to murray being better on a better defensive team and campbell bombing on a worse defensive team

 

[Holymakinaw]

So does anyone still support this shitty acquisition?

 

[ACC1224]

So does anyone still support this shitty acquisition?

I do

Not a fan of the trade but don’t mind the reclamation project.

 

[Leaf Fans]

So does anyone still support this shitty acquisition?

Sure, I would have liked more retention, but It was a good trade.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

So does anyone still support this shitty acquisition?

Are you expecting people to change their minds based on zero games played?