Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Previous GMs also had the luxury of an ever increasing cap, while Dubas had only one off-season of cap increase before it froze.

I think the worst thing you could reasonably say about Dubas is that he hasn't improved the team enough. Yes there have been roadblocks, but he was hired to get past the first round hump and he hasn't.

Saying that a 105 point team headlined by Matthews/Marner/Nylander was the best thing ever and a 115 point team with Matthews/Marner/Tavares/Nylander is a huge disappointment just loses me though. It's okay to critique Dubas without going way overboard

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Yes, Rask was a very good goalie. One of the best through his era. And even he fluctuated quite a bit, from -2.1 GSAx to +19.2 GSAx, and everywhere in between. And like pretty much every goalie, he had good series and bad series.

What logic do you think suggests that?

Well let's just clarify things. Do you believe that Murray will play great for TOR this season?

 

[Racer88]

Can you elaborate a bit? He kept the core in place, so it's hard to see how it can be both a blessing to inherit that group of players but also an indictment of him that he screwed up massively by keeping them together

I also think you're overestimating how good the situation was. The Leafs had no defense, a shit prospect pool, and all his best players were due substantial salary increases

The core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly that he was gifted was a blessing but wasting 11 million cap space on Tavares for 7 years screwed that up. He has been dining on table scraps ever since

Well let's just clarify things. Do you believe that Murray will play great for TOR this season?

Until he gets hurt……approximately game 12

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The core of Matthewe, Marner, Nylander and Rielly that he was gifted was a blessing but wasting 11 million cap space on Tavares for 7 years screwed that up. He has been dining on table scraps ever since

So how did signing Tavares screw up the core? He kept the core intact and made it better. That argument doesn't hold any water

 

[Stephen]

People tend to forget...

Campbell's success in Toronto was rewarded when, on January 13, 2022, he was selected for the 2022 NHL All-Star Game, his first NHL all star game, along with teammate Auston Matthews. At the time of his selection to the game, Campbell had a record of 18–5–3 with a .935 save percentage (second in the league for goaltenders) and a 2.02 goals-against average as well as a league leading +18 goals saved above expected.

vs

Murray assigned to AHL by Senators

The 27-year-old goalie, who was placed on waivers Saturday, is in the second season of a four-year, $25 million contract ($6.25 million average annual value) he signed with the Senators on Oct. 9, 2020, two days after he was acquired in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Murray is 0-5-0 with a 3.26 goals-against average and .890 save percentage in six games this season after going 10-13-1 with a 3.38 GAA and .893 save percentage in 27 games (25 starts) last season.

"We certainly got to play better in front of him as well so we got to take some blame there, but this is about getting his game back," Senators coach D.J. Smith said Saturday.

I think Campbell’s entire 2021-22 season was whatever in whole and certainly didn’t end strong. Many reasons for parting ways and don’t disagree with it.

But what is overlooked is Soup was a real backbone early when the Leafs were struggling and Mrazek basically got hurt right away. If he wasn’t great early, the Leafs would have had a harder time finding their footing.

I understand some people want to start the work of pumping up the next starter but you can’t diminish real contributions just because guys aren’t here anymore.

 

[Racer88]

So how did signing Tavares screw up the core? He kept the core intact and made it better. That argument doesn't hold any water

We have been over this time and time again.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

We have been over this time and time again.

Not really sure what you are talking about. Just say it one time, how has the amazing core of players been ruined by Dubas? The only thing he did was re-sign them and add another core player

 

[Racer88]

Not really sure what you are talking about. Just say it one time, how has the amazing core of players been ruined by Dubas? The only thing he did was re-sign them and add another core player

Maybe wasted might be a better term

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well let's just clarify things. Do you believe that Murray will play great for TOR this season?

I don't think he's one of the few goalies in the league where I'm comfortable expecting significant positive results, but I do think it's more likely than not that he puts up positive results. I think there's a very wide range of how Murray could end up, but I think that between Murray and Samsonov, we have a good chance of at least getting better goaltending than we got last year. I am optimistic about the goalie coach and staff changes (whose impact I think tends to be underrated), and am intrigued by Murray's experience and Samsonov's potential.

Maybe most important of all for ending our streak, I'm interested in how a two-time cup winner performs in the critical moments of a series that our goaltenders have historically flopped in. At this point, I'm more concerned with getting that big save at the big moment than I am with their season-long metrics. We showed last year that we can win in the regular season with even horrible goaltending.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I think Campbell’s entire 2021-22 season was whatever in whole and certainly didn’t end strong. Many reasons for parting ways and don’t disagree with it.

But what is overlooked is Soup was a real backbone early when the Leafs were struggling and Mrazek basically got hurt right away. If he wasn’t great early, the Leafs would have had a harder time finding their footing.

I understand some people want to start the work of pumping up the next starter but you can’t diminish real contributions just because guys aren’t here anymore.

You can tell it's approaching the end of summer, we continually rehash the same arguments over and over again. The bottom line is that everyone will have an opinion on whether Dubas' gamble with Murray was an astute move or whether it's a gamble that may end up costing one of the core. I sincerely believe he isn't going to be fired unless we miss the playoffs and I firmly believe they will make the playoffs.

As for the goaltending, Dubas hasn't messed up until we see what Murray/Samsonov will do during the season. Every other option out there came with risks. One thing for sure, with Campbell's inconsistent season and injury/mental woes, there is no way Dubas would give him 5 Mill for 5 years. THAT would have been a major screwup by him.

 

[Mess]

I think Campbell’s entire 2021-22 season was whatever in whole and certainly didn’t end strong. Many reasons for parting ways and don’t disagree with it.

But what is overlooked is Soup was a real backbone early when the Leafs were struggling and Mrazek basically got hurt right away. If he wasn’t great early, the Leafs would have had a harder time finding their footing.

I understand some people want to start the work of pumping up the next starter but you can’t diminish real contributions just because guys aren’t here anymore.

Jack Campbell saved this team last year early on with an NHL All-star game worthy performance and its funny how some make light of that.

Those stats .. 18–5–3 with a .935 save percentage (second in the league for goaltenders) and a 2.02 goals-against average which were among the best in the league.

Jack Campbell won more games in that early stretch then his replacement Murray has in 47 games over the course of his last 2 seasons with just 15 wins combined.

Fun comparison to show Jack Cambpell's 2021-22 "Struggling season" with context & perspective vs Matt Murray "Career best" 2016-17 year (6 seasons ago) on a Stanley Cup winning team.

Jack Campbell ... 2021-22 .. Toronto Maple Leafs - NHL .. 49 games 31 - 9 - 6 record with a 2.64 GAA & .914 sv% with 5 shutouts [= contributed 68 points]
Matt Murray ..... 2016-17 .. Pittsburgh Penguins - NHL ... 49 games 32 -10 - 4 record with a 2.41 GAA & .923 sv% with 2 shutouts [= contributed 68 points]

Matt Murray will need to match his career best ever season to essentially duplicate Jack Campbell's so called struggling season.

How will Murray performance be viewed if he does match Campbell's performance?

PS. Pens had MA Fleury also that played the remaining games in that season, Leafs will be playing with Samsonov, Woll and Kallgren.

 

[Gallagbi]

Jack Campbell saved this team last year early on with an NHL All-star game worthy performance and its funny how some make light of that.

Those stats .. 18–5–3 with a .935 save percentage (second in the league for goaltenders) and a 2.02 goals-against average which were among the best in the league.

Jack Campbell won more games in that early stretch then his replacement Murray has in 47 games over the course of his last 2 seasons with just 15 wins combined.

Fun comparison to show Jack Cambpell's 2021-22 "Struggling season" with context & perspective vs Matt Murray "Career best" 2016-17 year (6 seasons ago) on a Stanley Cup winning team.

Jack Campbell ... 2021-22 .. Toronto Maple Leafs - NHL .. 49 games 31- 9 - 6 record with a 2.64 GAA & .914 sv% with 5 shutouts
Matt Murray ..... 2016-17 .. Pittsburgh Penguins - NHL .. 49 games 32 -10 - 4 record with a 2.41 GAA & .923 sv% with 2 shutouts

Matt Murray will need to match his career best ever season to essentially duplicate Jack Campbell's so called struggling season.

How will Murray perfomarnce be viewed if he does match Campbell's performance?

When did we switch from GSAx to wins for the primary measure of goalies?

 

[ER89]

Jack Campbell saved this team last year early on with an NHL All-star game worthy performance and its funny how some make light of that.

Those stats .. 18–5–3 with a .935 save percentage (second in the league for goaltenders) and a 2.02 goals-against average which were among the best in the league.

Jack Campbell won more games in that early stretch then his replacement Murray has in 47 games over the course of his last 2 seasons with just 15 wins combined.

Fun comparison to show Jack Cambpell's 2021-22 "Struggling season" with context & perspective vs Matt Murray "Career best" 2016-17 year (6 seasons ago) on a Stanley Cup winning team.

Jack Campbell ... 2021-22 .. Toronto Maple Leafs - NHL .. 49 games 31- 9 - 6 record with a 2.64 GAA & .914 sv% with 5 shutouts [= contributed 68 points]
Matt Murray ..... 2016-17 .. Pittsburgh Penguins - NHL .. 49 games 32 -10 - 4 record with a 2.41 GAA & .923 sv% with 2 shutouts [= contributed 68 points]

Matt Murray will need to match his career best ever season to essentially duplicate Jack Campbell's so called struggling season.

How will Murray performance be viewed if he does match Campbell's performance?

So murray will need to get a 923 sv pctg to match jacks 914?

Makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Gallagbi]

So murray will need to get a 923 sv pctg to match jacks 914?

Makes absolutely no sense.

Maybe hes talking about GSAx since that was @Mess measure of success earlier this summer.

@Mess - what are those numbers for comparison?

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Can you elaborate a bit? He kept the core in place, so it's hard to see how it can be both a blessing to inherit that group of players but also an indictment of him that he screwed up massively by keeping them together

I also think you're overestimating how good the situation was. The Leafs had no defense, a shit prospect pool, and all his best players were due substantial salary increases

What's the point? It's already been elaborated on about million times over already on this site. There's no need to make this thread about that too.

But basically, he's failed to surround this core with the right talent to get them past even their first hurdle, winning a round. Keeping in mind a lot more people had cup aspirations/expectations back when he was hired so winning a round wasn't even a hurdle for the most part.

How long has the goaltending issue been left unaddressed? Campbell was never meant to be the solution. We got fortunate with him but he also had issues performing under pressure. We're relying on a guy who can barely stay healthy and has been bad for quite a while and a total wildcard to be the answer now.

That's just the start of it. The list goes on with his questionable trades, significant overpays and meh at best drafting.

 

[The Iceman]

Jack Campbell saved this team last year early on with an NHL All-star game worthy performance and its funny how some make light of that.

Those stats .. 18–5–3 with a .935 save percentage (second in the league for goaltenders) and a 2.02 goals-against average which were among the best in the league.

Jack Campbell won more games in that early stretch then his replacement Murray has in 47 games over the course of his last 2 seasons with just 15 wins combined.

Fun comparison to show Jack Cambpell's 2021-22 "Struggling season" with context & perspective vs Matt Murray "Career best" 2016-17 year (6 seasons ago) on a Stanley Cup winning team.

Jack Campbell ... 2021-22 .. Toronto Maple Leafs - NHL .. 49 games 31- 9 - 6 record with a 2.64 GAA & .914 sv% with 5 shutouts [= contributed 68 points]
Matt Murray ..... 2016-17 .. Pittsburgh Penguins - NHL .. 49 games 32 -10 - 4 record with a 2.41 GAA & .923 sv% with 2 shutouts [= contributed 68 points]

Matt Murray will need to match his career best ever season to essentially duplicate Jack Campbell's so called struggling season.

How will Murray performance be viewed if he does match Campbell's performance?

PS. Pens had MA Fleury also that played the remaining games in that season, Leafs will be playing with Samsonov, Woll and Kallgren.

Campbell had 86 career games going into last season as a 30 year old.
Late bloomer or not that good?

 

[rocketman588]

Maybe hes talking about GSAx since that was @Mess measure of success earlier this summer.

@Mess - what are those numbers for comparison?

It was literally dekes stat of choice ( but only this past season)

Because it was the only one that made Murray look like he didn't belong in the glue factory.

Just don't look at the 20-21 metric of the same stat

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Campbell had 86 career games going into last season as a 30 year old.
Late bloomer or not that good?

or he's mentally fragile. Not a good trait to have playing for a Stanley Cup contending team.

 

[Menzinger]

Some GMs were under different mandates during different seasons. If a GM is tasked to get the first overall and he does wouldn’t that be considered successful?

Anyone can make a team terrible though.

Like Chia was the GM when the Oilers drafted the best player in the world, but I'm not sure I'd call that a success for the GM. Rather he was the man who got to call the guys name when the time came. A couple different lottery balls and it's Shanahan/Hunter/Dubas' doing the same for the Leafs - but that still doesn't mean it was a success ect

 

[Mess]

Campbell had 86 career games going into last season as a 30 year old.
Late bloomer or not that good?

Freddy Andersen was a legit #1 starting NHL goalie as he proved in both games played and wins in a season. Jack Campbell was always at best a backup goalie with tandem abilities to play roughly 1/2 a season.

The reason the Leafs have moved on from both these goalies is they came up short in the playoffs and haven't come up big in that must win game.

Past Leaf Goalie Playoff records in their last 2 playoffs

2018-19 .. Andersen .. Boston vs Tor ........ Result: Bruins in 7 ... Andersen's record 3 wins 4 losses
2019-20 .. Andersen .. Toronto vs CBJ ...... Result: CBJ in 5 ....... Andersen's record 2 wins 3 losses

Andersen's record combined 5 wins 7 losses ... Lost in Round #1 X 2 = NEXT !!!

2020-21 .. Campbell .. Toronto vs Montreal ...... Result: Montreal in 7 ...... Campbell's record 3 wins 4 losses
2021-22 . Campbell .. Toronto vs Tampa Bay ... Result : Tampa in 7 ........... Campbell's record 3 wins 4 losses

Campbell's record combined 6 wins 8 losses .. Lost in Round # 1 X 2 = NEXT !!!!

Replacement Goalies Playoff records in their last 2 playoffs

Pittsburgh wins 2016 & 2017 Stanley Cups

2018-19 .. Murray .. Pittsburgh vs NYI .............. Result NYI in 4 ................... Murray record 0 wins 4 losses
2019-20 .. Murray .. Pittsburgh vs Montreal .. Result: Montreal in 4 ........ Murray record 1 win 3 losses

Murray's record combined 1 win 7 losses .. Lost in Round #1 X 2 ... Help !!!! (Murray dealt to OTTAWA)

Washington win 2018 Stanley Cup

2020-21 .. Samsonov .. Washington vs Boston ...... Result: Boston in 5 ...... Samsonov's record 0 wins 3 losses
2021-22 . Samsonov .. Washington vs Florida ........Result: Florida in 6 ....... Sansonov's record 1 win 4 losses

Samsonov's record combined 1 win 7 losses .. Lost in Round #1 X 2 ..... Help !!!! (Samsonov released no QO)

Is the grass greener when the replacement players were doing far worse over these same 4 overlapping playoff years for Leafs?

Leafs goalies were losing just and many playoff games, the key here is they were also winning far more and getting the series to deciding games.

 

[LeafEgo]

Anyone can make a team terrible though.

Like Chia was the GM when the Oilers drafted the best player in the world, but I'm not sure I'd call that a success for the GM. Rather he was the man who got to call the guys name when the time came. A couple different lottery balls and it's Shanahan/Hunter/Dubas' doing the same for the Leafs - but that still doesn't mean it was a success ect

I think there is an art to tanking that you're undervaluing here. It's not about trying to destroy a franchise for a bit.

If you manage to pick up a 1OA, a couple more elite players, grab a young top 10 goalie with term, and then produce a record breaking season a few years later you have done a good job with it. A better job than the Oilers and others.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I don't think he's one of the few goalies in the league where I'm comfortable expecting significant positive results, but I do think it's more likely than not that he puts up positive results. I think there's a very wide range of how Murray could end up, but I think that between Murray and Samsonov, we have a good chance of at least getting better goaltending than we got last year. I am optimistic about the goalie coach and staff changes (whose impact I think tends to be underrated), and am intrigued by Murray's experience and Samsonov's potential.

Maybe most important of all for ending our streak, I'm interested in how a two-time cup winner performs in the critical moments of a series that our goaltenders have historically flopped in. At this point, I'm more concerned with getting that big save at the big moment than I am with their season-long metrics. We showed last year that we can win in the regular season with even horrible goaltending.

As much as I disagree with you on a lot of things...you are 100% correct about our previous goaltending in the playoffs. Were they the sole reason we got booted? Probably not...but man did they ever choke in big games...both Fred and Jack. I don't think most people watching a playoff game with high stakes realize the team is human...and if they see a shitty goal go in...the "Here we go again" bell starts ringing in their heads. It can't not go off when they have seen the same thing time after time. If I, as a fan, notice the weak goal...the players certainly would know its a weak one too.

Does that absolve our big boys from under performing in big games? nope...but it sure does explain a whole lot. If I am constantly worried that the slightest error I make will be in the back of the net because of subpar goaltending...I am playing safer than usual. What was the reasoning behind our shitty performances in deciding games? Playing too cautious.

I really hope Murray just does a Grant Fuhr and makes a few impossible stops to give them some breathing room. The games are tight enough as it is, let alone worrying about letting any shots through to the net.

 

[socko]

Was any playoff team other than the Leafs even interested in Murray? It seems like there was an effort to trade him from one tanking team (Ottawa) to another tanking team (Buffalo) probably because Ottawa feels they're on the upswing.

 

[LeafEgo]

As much as I disagree with you on a lot of things...you are 100% correct about our previous goaltending in the playoffs. Were they the sole reason we got booted? Probably not...but man did they ever choke in big games...both Fred and Jack. I don't think most people watching a playoff game with high stakes realize the team is human...and if they see a shitty goal go in...the "Here we go again" bell starts ringing in their heads. It can't not go off when they have seen the same thing time after time. If I, as a fan, notice the weak goal...the players certainly would know its a weak one too.

Does that absolve our big boys from under performing in big games? nope...but it sure does explain a whole lot. If I am constantly worried that the slightest error I make will be in the back of the net because of subpar goaltending...I am playing safer than usual. What was the reasoning behind our shitty performances in deciding games? Playing too cautious.

I really hope Murray just does a Grant Fuhr and makes a few impossible stops to give them some breathing room. The games are tight enough as it is, let alone worrying about letting any shots through to the net.

I dont buy that excuse. The Campbell Freddy chokes were nothing unusual compared to all the top goalies in the league in the playoffs. In some cases they pale in comparison. Neither ever even lost the net.

Winning teams play through that. Folks constantly remark how Tampa always kept composure - a bad goal, a bad game, down in the series, no problem. And look at Kuemper this year.

If you're blaming the goalie for one bad goal at the wrong time you never had a chance.

 

[Menzinger]

I think there is an art to tanking that you're undervaluing here. It's not about trying to destroy a franchise for a bit.

If you manage to pick up a 1OA, a couple more elite players, grab a young top 10 goalie with term, and then produce a record breaking season a few years later you have done a good job with it. A better job than the Oilers and others.

Where we likely disagree here is whether it's 'Art' vs 'luck'