Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[Bleach Clean]

Reminds me of Victor Soderstrom. Lot of the same things said about Willander were the same as those said about Soderstrom and they are physically alike. Arizona pushed Soderstrom into the League too early and he's back in the AHL. Doing fine there and likely gets back up to the NHL next season.

Think there has to be some patience with this player and probably should be looked upon as fairly long term prospect. Another two years in the NCAA and a season or two in the AHL or on loan, if possible, back to the SHL. Makes him around 23 when he plays with the Canucks.

While I don't agree with the Soderstrom comparison, nor with the return to the SHL, I do agree with your general sentiment that he needs a longer timeline. The fact is, a player picked at his position (with the associated alternatives forgone) must produce at a decent NHL clip. The offense is most certainly not a "bonus". It's a requirement for him to be considered a 2way Dman.

He's got the athleticism and the defensive IQ. That's what the scouting staff banked on when they forewent better offensive players (Benson). The hope is that he translates his production a la Pesce, who has hit 29 and 30 points in his career. Hamhuis had a better offensive pedigree, but didn't live up to that promise, but even that would be a 'ceiling' of sorts for Willander.

I think another year in the NCAA and one more year in the AHL where he gets some call ups would work for him.

 

[MS]

While I don't agree with the Soderstrom comparison, nor with the return to the SHL, I do agree with your general sentiment that he needs a longer timeline. The fact is, a player picked at his position (with the associated alternatives forgone) must produce at a decent NHL clip. The offense is most certainly not a "bonus". It's a requirement for him to be considered a 2way Dman.

He's got the athleticism and the defensive IQ. That's what the scouting staff banked on when they forewent better offensive players (Benson). The hope is that he translates his production a la Pesce, who has hit 29 and 30 points in his career. Hamhuis had a better offensive pedigree, but didn't live up to that promise, but even that would be a 'ceiling' of sorts for Willander.

I think another year in the NCAA and one more year in the AHL where he gets some call ups would work for him.

Willander is a unique case because he isn't getting PP reps because he plays on the same team as Lane Hutson in the NCAA and ASP at the WJCs who are probably the two top PP QB prospects in the sport. And if you don't get PP1 reps as a D, you don't put up big numbers.

If he played in the CHL and was getting PP1 minutes he'd probably have 60 points through 50 games right now and nobody would be questioning his production.

 

[gsharpe]

Willander is a unique case because he isn't getting PP reps because he plays on the same team as Lane Hutson in the NCAA and ASP at the WJCs who are probably the two top PP QB prospects in the sport. And if you don't get PP1 reps as a D, you don't put up big numbers.

If he played in the CHL and was getting PP1 minutes he'd probably have 60 points through 50 games right now and nobody would be questioning his production.

Just adding context but Woo put up 60 odd points in 50 odd games.

I'm happy Willander is in the NCAA. Seems like a significantly better developmental league. Not just for hockey but also as people. Much more maturity shown when the prospects get to the ahl.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Willander is a unique case because he isn't getting PP reps because he plays on the same team as Lane Hutson in the NCAA and ASP at the WJCs who are probably the two top PP QB prospects in the sport. And if you don't get PP1 reps as a D, you don't put up big numbers.

If he played in the CHL and was getting PP1 minutes he'd probably have 60 points through 50 games right now and nobody would be questioning his production.

Willander had questions about his production going back to his play in Rogle, where ASP or Hutson were not in his way. He's not a PP1 type of player anyway, and that's fine. I don't expect PPQB level production, just enough to suggest he can contribute at a 2way level in the NHL. A gradual improvement at the lower level will go a long way.

 

[JT Milker]

Willander will never play in the AHL.

 

[Nucker101]

Gonna be so fun seeing him next year when he loses the Hutson crutch.

 

[arttk]

Willander will never play in the AHL.

I think they will make him play in the A for like half a season. This group doesn’t seem like the type that rushes kids to the NHL

 

[MS]

Willander had questions about his production going back to his play in Rogle, where ASP or Hutson were not in his way. He's not a PP1 type of player anyway, and that's fine. I don't expect PPQB level production, just enough to suggest he can contribute at a 2way level in the NHL. A gradual improvement at the lower level will go a long way.

And, I mean, that's exactly what he's doing. His ES production as an NCAA freshman is excellent.

If he played PP1, he'd be up near a point-per-game. He's going to blow up next year assuming Hutson turns pro.

 

[Bleach Clean]

And, I mean, that's exactly what he's doing. His ES production as an NCAA freshman is excellent.

If he played PP1, he'd be up near a point-per-game. He's going to blow up next year assuming Hutson turns pro.

I don't think "for a freshman" production is the best marker (a la Wood). With a .58 PPG in his D+1 season in the H-East, a 2way NHL projection would necessitate him carrying over his production from the NCAA (Pesce/Slavin) rather than expect his production to diminish from a high point (Hamhuis/Faulk). To project him positively, you would expect him to carry it over.

For me, I would need to see him track toward the high point in his D+2 season to assuage concerns. That way, he has both pedigrees in his portfolio. He can either carry it over or expect a diminished number from a high point (even though it's his D+2 season).

 

[MS]

I don't think "for a freshman" production is the best marker (a la Wood). With a .58 PPG in his D+1 season in the H-East, a 2way NHL projection would necessitate him carrying over his production from the NCAA (Pesce/Slavin) rather than expect his production to diminish from a high point (Hamhuis/Faulk). To project him positively, you would expect him to carry it over.

For me, I would need to see him track toward the high point in his D+2 season to assuage concerns. That way, he has both pedigrees in his portfolio. He can either carry it over or expect a diminished number from a high point (even though it's his D+2 season).

Again, this stuff is pointless because his situation is unique. If he was playing literally anywhere else he would be racking up PP points.

And NHLe stuff is just the worst.

The guy is a f***ing player. It pops off the screen when you watch him and there’s a reason he pushes massive goal differentials everywhere he goes.

 

[Raistlin]

I don't know why the preoccupation for him to produce offense. It's a bonus for me. Brodin was picked 10th, showed very little offense in Farjestad, took him 10 years to put up a 30 point year, and he's as untouchable an asset as they come. I will pick him over Benson 10 times out of 10 if he turns out to be a right handed stud defense specialist like Brodin.

 

[MS]

I don't know why the preoccupation for him to produce offense. It's a bonus for me. Brodin was picked 10th, showed very little offense in Farjestad, took him 10 years to put up a 30 point year, and he's as untouchable an asset as they come. I will pick him over Benson 10 times out of 10 if he turns out to be a right handed stud defense specialist like Brodin.

I mean, look at Brock Faber’s D+1 and D+2 production. And Faber is a very similar package to Willander.

Or McAvoy or Lindholm.

You can’t get obsessive about prospect defender production at lower levels because it’s so PP-driven and PP opportunities are so variable. Someone mentioned Jett Woo above and his production blew up in his D+1 solely because of his production on an insane Moose Jaw PP and then cratered the following year when he didn’t have the same situation.

If Willander had like 5 points through 25 games or something, sure. That’s reason for concern. But he’s basically pacing level with McAvoy/Makar/Werenski as an NCAA freshman and ahead of Faber.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I don't know why the preoccupation for him to produce offense. It's a bonus for me. Brodin was picked 10th, showed very little offense in Farjestad, took him 10 years to put up a 30 point year, and he's as untouchable an asset as they come. I will pick him over Benson 10 times out of 10 if he turns out to be a right handed stud defense specialist like Brodin.

Because historically the players that dont produce before they hit the NHL are not worth a top 10 pick.

I mean, look at Brock Faber’s D+1 and D+2 production. And Faber is a very similar package to Willander.

Or McAvoy or Lindholm.

You can’t get obsessive about prospect defender production at lower levels because it’s so PP-driven and PP opportunities are so variable. Someone mentioned Jett Woo above and his production blew up in his D+1 solely because of his production on an insane Moose Jaw PP and then cratered the following year when he didn’t have the same situation.

If Willander had like 5 points through 25 games or something, sure. That’s reason for concern. But he’s basically pacing level with McAvoy/Makar/Werenski as an NCAA freshman and ahead of Faber.

Are you actually getting to watch Willander's games?

 

[MS]

Because historically the players that dont produce before they hit the NHL are not worth a top 10 pick.


Are you actually getting to watch Willander's games?

I’ve seen about a game and a half of BU and all of his WJC games plus all of his U18 games last spring so I’ve watched him play about 15 times in the last year.

And again : ‘historically’ his production is in line with other top-10 drafted NCAA defenders who have gone on to become impact players. Werenski, Makar, McAvoy.

 

[credulous]

willander's production is definitely not great considering where he was drafted, where he is playing and the opportunity he's afforded. i don't think it's bad enough to worry yet but he's definitely behind where he should be imo. he's not even top 10 for freshman d scoring and he's playing more minutes than everyone ahead of him except levshunov and buium (both of whom are nearly a year younger than him)

it's not just a case of opportunity; he doesn't look very good offensively at BU. the play dies on his stick in the offensive zone way too often. if he was getting shots or trying to make plays it would be one thing but he's a turnover machine in the offensive zone

i still think he's a very good prospect but if you are hoping for a two way defender who is going to be a plus offensive player in the nhl he has a long way to go

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

willander's production is definitely not great considering where he was drafted, where he is playing and the opportunity he's afforded. i don't think it's bad enough to worry yet but he's definitely behind where he should be imo. he's not even top 10 for freshman d scoring and he's playing more minutes than everyone ahead of him except levshunov and buium (both of whom are nearly a year younger than him)

it's not just a case of opportunity; he doesn't look very good offensively at BU. the play dies on his stick in the offensive zone way too often. if he was getting shots or trying to make plays it would be one thing but he's a turnover machine in the offensive zone

i still think he's a very good prospect but if you are hoping for a two way defender who is going to be a plus offensive player in the nhl he has a long way to go

You know who doesn’t put up a lot of pts but is considered en elite two-way defender?

Chris Tanev

 

[credulous]

You know who doesn’t put up a lot of pts but is considered en elite two-way defender?

Chris Tanev

i'm not saying willander is a bust or a bad pick i'm just disagreeing that his production is excellent (even for a freshman)

 

[Bleach Clean]

Again, this stuff is pointless because his situation is unique. If he was playing literally anywhere else he would be racking up PP points.

And NHLe stuff is just the worst.

The guy is a f***ing player. It pops off the screen when you watch him and there’s a reason he pushes massive goal differentials everywhere he goes.

Well then it should bear out eventually (even in Rogle). As of right now, it's not. Or at least, not to the point where it assuages concerns over his offense.

The NHLe shot is also a red herring. It's just about production, and production doesn't only matter in a prospect's freshman year.

 

[MS]

Well then it should bear out eventually (even in Rogle). As of right now, it's not. Or at least, not to the point where it assuages concerns over his offense.

The NHLe shot is also a red herring. It's just about production, and production doesn't only matter in a prospect's freshman year.

He’s literally producing at about the same rate as Makar/Werenski/McAvoy as an NCAA freshman and way ahead of Faber.

You’re inventing a concern that doesn’t exist. His production is totally fine and pretty much exactly where it should be given his usage.

He doesn’t project as an NHL PPQB and doesn’t play PP1 minutes at BU. I honestly have no idea what you were expecting. His comparables are guys like Brodin and Faber.

 

[God]

willander's production is definitely not great considering where he was drafted, where he is playing and the opportunity he's afforded. i don't think it's bad enough to worry yet but he's definitely behind where he should be imo. he's not even top 10 for freshman d scoring and he's playing more minutes than everyone ahead of him except levshunov and buium (both of whom are nearly a year younger than him)

it's not just a case of opportunity; he doesn't look very good offensively at BU. the play dies on his stick in the offensive zone way too often. if he was getting shots or trying to make plays it would be one thing but he's a turnover machine in the offensive zone

i still think he's a very good prospect but if you are hoping for a two way defender who is going to be a plus offensive player in the nhl he has a long way to go

isn't this sort of disingenuous when "freshman" can include people in their d+2, and six of the guys ahead of him are nearly a year or more older (pietila, livanavage, rinzel, murr, buckburger, palodichuk) than willander? and one of them is already 22 (gadowsky)?

 

[MS]

isn't this sort of disingenuous when "freshman" can include people in their d+2, and six of the guys ahead of him are nearly a year or more older (pietila, livanavage, rinzel, murr, buckburger, palodichuk) than willander? and one of them is already 22 (gadowsky)?

Yeah, comparing him to a guy like Evan Murr who is 2 years older and welded to his team’s PP1 is absolutely pointless and tells you nothing.

Defender production is driven by PP usage. If you don’t get PP usage, you won’t produce big numbers. I don’t understand how people still don’t get this in 2024.

 

[credulous]

isn't this sort of disingenuous when "freshman" can include people in their d+2, and six of the guys ahead of him are nearly a year or more older (pietila, livanavage, rinzel, murr, buckburger, palodichuk) than willander? and one of them is already 22 (gadowsky)?

most of those guys are closer in age to willander than willander is to levshunov and buium but if you want to exclude gadowsky and murr then sure

 

[God]

most of those guys are closer in age to willander than willander is to levshunov and buium but if you want to exclude gadowsky and murr then sure

no?

willander's bday is feb 9 2005

buium is dec 7 2005 (10 months)
levshunov is oct 28 2005 (8 months)

pietila is march 3 2004 (11 months)
livanavage is may 6 2004 (9 months)
rinzel is june 25 2004 (8 months)
buckburger is june 1 2003 (20 months)
palodichuk is feb 26 2003 (24 months)

the only player who is "closer" is ben robertson (sep 18 2004) who, from the stats, seems to be playing PP1 minutes

 

[Raistlin]

Because historically the players that dont produce before they hit the NHL are not worth a top 10 pick.


Are you actually getting to watch Willander's games?

well, whadaya know? nothing to be concerned with then, he's picked outside of top 10.

dont know about you, a right handed Brodin is worth a top 10 pick for me.

Just a little bit of patience please? See Lekk. Next year, I'm pretty sure he will get his time to cash in on the PP. We just drafted the guy, who wasn't even a Dman 3 years ago, by all accounts, no one is having any issues with his development, you guys are making a volcano out of a mole hill.

 

[Bleach Clean]

He’s literally producing at about the same rate as Makar/Werenski/McAvoy as an NCAA freshman and way ahead of Faber.

You’re inventing a concern that doesn’t exist. His production is totally fine and pretty much exactly where it should be given his usage.

He doesn’t project as an NHL PPQB and doesn’t play PP1 minutes at BU. I honestly have no idea what you were expecting. His comparables are guys like Brodin and Faber.

The questions about Willander's offense have stayed with him since draft. No one needs to invent anything in this regard. In fact, I think you've gone a bit overboard here in defense of those questions when history shows that 2 dmen can both put up PPPs on the same team, a la McAvoy-Fabbro in 2016-17 (I believe that it was also considered a down year for McAvoy). It happens. Hutson wouldn't have blocked anything if Willander was good enough to take the time.

Next: I mean yeah, his production is not disastrous... Good. Werenski and McAvoy produced at a similar clip in their draft eligible seasons. Makar had a high offensive projection before even going to the NCAA. By NHLe and pedigree, Willander is/was not like them.

Does that mean he can't make the NHL, or be a "player"? No. This is about upside, not conversion.