Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[F A N]

I don't know why the preoccupation for him to produce offense. It's a bonus for me. Brodin was picked 10th, showed very little offense in Farjestad, took him 10 years to put up a 30 point year, and he's as untouchable an asset as they come. I will pick him over Benson 10 times out of 10 if he turns out to be a right handed stud defense specialist like Brodin.

Same. Current era PPs are run by forwards anyways. Teams are more likely to go with 5 forwards on the PP than 2 Dmen and we have Hughes.

I guess I would say that producing offence at lower levels helps with the top 4 projections. I can see the argument being made that a Dman who can't put up points at lower levels is unlikely to develop into a top 4 Dman. It's more of a demonstration of skill level more than anything. Even Brodin had 2 goals 4 points in 9 AHL games and 4 points in 6 games at the WJC.

I remember for years expecting Tanev to produce more offensively given his skill level but it never really came (except the one year he played 82 games in Calgary).

So ya, it's nice to see our guys like Willander and Mynio put up decent numbers offensively. We were hoping for the same thing with Woo. We weren't expecting him to ever become an offensive contributor at the NHL level but his ability to put up points at the WHL level was seen as a positive.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I’ve seen about a game and a half of BU and all of his WJC games plus all of his U18 games last spring so I’ve watched him play about 15 times in the last year.

And again : ‘historically’ his production is in line with other top-10 drafted NCAA defenders who have gone on to become impact players. Werenski, Makar, McAvoy.

Thanks.

Only reason I asked was because I value your opinions and wanted to know how much you've been able to see Willander play.

 

[Hodgy]

And, I mean, that's exactly what he's doing. His ES production as an NCAA freshman is excellent.

If he played PP1, he'd be up near a point-per-game. He's going to blow up next year assuming Hutson turns pro.

I don’t know whether there is any concern regarding Willander’s production, and agree that he’s on a deep team and not getting prime minutes, but it’s worth noting that he was 15th in defensemen scoring last year in what is not a great league. And he was third in points per game of defensemen on his own team although admittedly the top two scorers had fewer games played.

 

[Vector]

Drance interviewed Willander, Allvin, and Pandolfo.

---

Is there something skills-wise you’re working on? Any area for improvement you’re targeting?

I would say it’s mostly puck skills at the blue line. Puck skills, walking the line, all of that stuff. Just getting more comfortable to be able to do stuff in the games.

---

The whole interview is really good. He gives long, thoughtful answers to each question. He was really impressive in his draft day interviews and that's continued here.

 

[Hodgy]

I like that Willander thought Drance was asking about EP2.

 

[RobsonStreet]

The questions about Willander's offense have stayed with him since draft. No one needs to invent anything in this regard. In fact, I think you've gone a bit overboard here in defense of those questions when history shows that 2 dmen can both put up PPPs on the same team, a la McAvoy-Fabbro in 2016-17 (I believe that it was also considered a down year for McAvoy). It happens. Hutson wouldn't have blocked anything if Willander was good enough to take the time.

Next: I mean yeah, his production is not disastrous... Good. Werenski and McAvoy produced at a similar clip in their draft eligible seasons. Makar had a high offensive projection before even going to the NCAA. By NHLe and pedigree, Willander is/was not like them.

Does that mean he can't make the NHL, or be a "player"? No. This is about upside, not conversion.

Just to stay with this idea of offensive expectations at this level being driven by the powerplay, I thought I’d check in with how ASP and Hutson are doing at even strength:

Hutson D+2: 21 points in 25 games
Willander D+1: 13 points in 25 games
ASP D+1: 4 points in 28 games

Draw your own conclusions

2023-2024 Boston University Men's Ice Hockey (PDF) - Boston University Athletics

Statistik spelare 2023/2024 - SHL.se

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Drance interviewed Willander, Allvin, and Pandolfo.

---

Is there something skills-wise you’re working on? Any area for improvement you’re targeting?

I would say it’s mostly puck skills at the blue line. Puck skills, walking the line, all of that stuff. Just getting more comfortable to be able to do stuff in the games.

---

The whole interview is really good. He gives long, thoughtful answers to each question. He was really impressive in his draft day interviews and that's continued here.

Who better to learn those skills from than our captain? Too bad he can't attend training camp though, he would've benefit a lot working with Hughes and Gonchar.

 

[MS]

I don’t know whether there is any concern regarding Willander’s production, and agree that he’s on a deep team and not getting prime minutes, but it’s worth noting that he was 15th in defensemen scoring last year in what is not a great league. And he was third in points per game of defensemen on his own team although admittedly the top two scorers had fewer games played.

But again, those guys are almost all 1-2 years older, including the two guys on his own team.

Like, the fact that some overage defender in the WHL like Hudson Thornton is outscoring Mynio in his draft+1 isn't really relevant.

 

[MS]

Just to stay with this idea of offensive expectations at this level being driven by the powerplay, I thought I’d check in with how ASP and Hutson are doing at even strength:

Hutson D+2: 21 points in 25 games
Willander D+1: 13 points in 25 games
ASP D+1: 4 points in 28 games

Draw your own conclusions

2023-2024 Boston University Men's Ice Hockey (PDF) - Boston University Athletics

Statistik spelare 2023/2024 - SHL.se

If you are over 0.5 ES points/game as a defender at any level, you're doing great relative to that level.

 

[Raistlin]

Just to stay with this idea of offensive expectations at this level being driven by the powerplay, I thought I’d check in with how ASP and Hutson are doing at even strength:

Hutson D+2: 21 points in 25 games
Willander D+1: 13 points in 25 games
ASP D+1: 4 points in 28 games

Draw your own conclusions

2023-2024 Boston University Men's Ice Hockey (PDF) - Boston University Athletics

Statistik spelare 2023/2024 - SHL.se

my conclusion is that its really hard to compare between leagues. its a matter of expectations for me. I never thought canucks was drafting a Heiskanen 2.0 at 11OA

I expect Willander to be on the Pesce/Slavin/Brodin/Faber track, his comp when he was drafted is something along those lines. and so far every indication is that he is delivering exactly the qualities you need to be a stopper on D on the right side. How quickly and effortlessly he closes gaps, his board work, his transitions and breakouts, sound decision making (WIP) and being the defensive conscience of his pairing, he showed it in NCAA games and WJC this year.

wow...judging from the raving feedback on the wings board, I was expecting a lot more production 5v5 for ASP. was Skelleftea also starved for offense like Orebro? but yeah, it shows how little we separate production overall from PP production if we dont pay attention. ASP was touted to be a lot more offensively adept than Willander.

 

[arttk]

my conclusion is that its really hard to compare between leagues. its a matter of expectations for me. I never thought canucks was drafting a Heiskanen 2.0 at 11OA

I expect Willander to be on the Pesce/Slavin/Brodin/Faber track, his comp when he was drafted is something along those lines. and so far every indication is that he is delivering exactly the qualities you need to be a stopper on D on the right side. How quickly and effortlessly he closes gaps, his board work, his transitions and breakouts, sound decision making (WIP) and being the defensive conscience of his pairing, he showed it in NCAA games and WJC this year.

wow...judging from the raving feedback on the wings board, I was expecting a lot more production 5v5 for ASP. was Skelleftea also starved for offense like Orebro? but yeah, it shows how little we separate production overall from PP production if we dont pay attention. ASP was touted to be a lot more offensively adept than Willander.

it not like Heiskanen was blowing up offensively in his D+1

 

[VanJack]

it not like Heiskanen was blowing up offensively in his D+1

You know it's strange, but watching Wilander at the recent WJHC, I was getting the same Heiskanen vibes......but didn't point it out at the time, at the risk of some skepticism and ridicule from other posters.

But Wilander has some of the same qualities as an effortless skater......He's currently playing a safer game in the NCAA and isn't rushing the puck as much. But you can see it OT, that when he wants to go, he's more than capable of leading a rush.

He's quietly had a solid draft-plus-season.....and finding a right-shot d-man who can skate the way he can, is a huge bonus.

 

[DFAC]

Mishandled the puck and turned it over in OT to lose the Beanpot to Northeastern. Aside from that, sounds like he had a pretty solid game though?

 

[Coffee]

but didn't point it out at the time, at the risk of some skepticism and ridicule from other posters.

please don’t do this again, your perspectives are always interesting, say what’s on your mind

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Mishandled the puck and turned it over in OT to lose the Beanpot to Northeastern. Aside from that, sounds like he had a pretty solid game though?

A few of Willander's recent games on this youtube channel:

 

[LemonSauceD]

A few of Willander's recent games on this youtube channel:

He’s going to look so good with Hughes.

Willander and Hronek on our right side

 

[Hodgy]

But again, those guys are almost all 1-2 years older, including the two guys on his own team.

Casselsten is basically the same age as Willander and significantly outscored Willander scoring at basically a point per game in 19 games compared to Willander's 25 points in 39 games. Casselsten is also undrafted. The other player, Engstrom, was a year older and draft, but only played 7 games so had very little affect on Willander's production.

The following are the defensemen that outscored Willander in the J20 last year, and their age and draft status as per Elite Prospects:

Lagerberg Hoen: 18 – Undrafted;

Axel Sandin-Pellika – 18, Drafted

Anton Davidsson – 19, Undrafted

Samuel Eklund – 19, undrafted

Rasmus Larsson - 19, drafted

Stefan Milosevic – 19, undrafted

Loke Södergren – 19, undrafted

Zétény Hadobás – 19, undrafted

Simon Forsmark – 19, undrafted

Simon Lindblom – 19, undrafted

Dennis Good Bogg – 18, undrafted

Alexander Fredriksson – 18, undrafted

Gustav Hedberg – 18, undrafted;

Leon Matthiasson – 19, undrafted;


No real surprise that ASP outscored Willander, but then you have 4 undrafted players the same age as Willander that outscored him , and 8 undrafted 19 year olds that outscored Willander. So 8 guys were 1 year older, but weren't even drafted, so I think its pretty fair to say that a top ten talent like Willander could out score unddrafted players that were only a year older.


I'm not saying that Willander is a bad prospect, but his production was poor last year based on where he was drafted. Frankly, I don't think Willander was ever drafted based on his offensive capabilities like ASP for example, so I am not too worried. But I think criticism around his productio is fair at this point.

 

[God]

Casselsten is basically the same age as Willander and significantly outscored Willander scoring at basically a point per game in 19 games compared to Willander's 25 points in 39 games. Casselsten is also undrafted. The other player, Engstrom, was a year older and draft, but only played 7 games so had very little affect on Willander's production.

The following are the defensemen that outscored Willander in the J20 last year, and their age and draft status as per Elite Prospects:

Lagerberg Hoen: 18 – Undrafted;

Axel Sandin-Pellika – 18, Drafted

Anton Davidsson – 19, Undrafted

Samuel Eklund – 19, undrafted

Rasmus Larsson - 19, drafted

Stefan Milosevic – 19, undrafted

Loke Södergren – 19, undrafted

Zétény Hadobás – 19, undrafted

Simon Forsmark – 19, undrafted

Simon Lindblom – 19, undrafted

Dennis Good Bogg – 18, undrafted

Alexander Fredriksson – 18, undrafted

Gustav Hedberg – 18, undrafted;

Leon Matthiasson – 19, undrafted;


No real surprise that ASP outscored Willander, but then you have 4 undrafted players the same age as Willander that outscored him , and 8 undrafted 19 year olds that outscored Willander. So 8 guys were 1 year older, but weren't even drafted, so I think its pretty fair to say that a top ten talent like Willander could out score unddrafted players that were only a year older.


I'm not saying that Willander is a bad prospect, but his production was poor last year based on where he was drafted. Frankly, I don't think Willander was ever drafted based on his offensive capabilities like ASP for example, so I am not too worried. But I think criticism around his productio is fair at this point.

Doesn't this just tell you that looking at production for defensemen is a poor metric for projecting future upside? You can find these examples in any season and most of these players won't make it. Casselsten is 5'8.

As long as he's not putting up a 0-0-0 stat line, I don't think there's much to be worried about, particularly if he's projected as a two-way defenseman. Examples like McAvoy, Werenski, and Makar have been brought up. Makar got outscored by Ian Mitchell, Chad Krys, and Quinn Hughes (not drafted yet) in his D+1 NCAA season. All around the same age or younger in Hughes' case.

 

[Quinning]

I'm more interested in his underlying metrics than his points.

 

[Nucker101]

I’m more interested in ES points when comparing him to his peers in the same league.

Powerplay ability is pretty low on my priority list for future Canucks dmen while we have Hughes/Hronek. Give me 5v5 offensive creators.

 

[MS]

Casselsten is basically the same age as Willander and significantly outscored Willander scoring at basically a point per game in 19 games compared to Willander's 25 points in 39 games. Casselsten is also undrafted. The other player, Engstrom, was a year older and draft, but only played 7 games so had very little affect on Willander's production.

The following are the defensemen that outscored Willander in the J20 last year, and their age and draft status as per Elite Prospects:

Lagerberg Hoen: 18 – Undrafted;

Axel Sandin-Pellika – 18, Drafted

Anton Davidsson – 19, Undrafted

Samuel Eklund – 19, undrafted

Rasmus Larsson - 19, drafted

Stefan Milosevic – 19, undrafted

Loke Södergren – 19, undrafted

Zétény Hadobás – 19, undrafted

Simon Forsmark – 19, undrafted

Simon Lindblom – 19, undrafted

Dennis Good Bogg – 18, undrafted

Alexander Fredriksson – 18, undrafted

Gustav Hedberg – 18, undrafted;

Leon Matthiasson – 19, undrafted;


No real surprise that ASP outscored Willander, but then you have 4 undrafted players the same age as Willander that outscored him , and 8 undrafted 19 year olds that outscored Willander. So 8 guys were 1 year older, but weren't even drafted, so I think its pretty fair to say that a top ten talent like Willander could out score unddrafted players that were only a year older.


I'm not saying that Willander is a bad prospect, but his production was poor last year based on where he was drafted. Frankly, I don't think Willander was ever drafted based on his offensive capabilities like ASP for example, so I am not too worried. But I think criticism around his productio is fair at this point.

As someone else noted above, all this is telling you is that defender points at low levels is a really bad way to evaluate those prospects.

Just because some 5'8 midget getting PP1 time put up more points ... it doesn't mean anything.

People think Mynio is a good prospect and you could do exactly the same laundry list of crappy/little/old players who out-produced him last year (and this year).

 

[Raistlin]

He was playing on the top pair, on the second seeded team in D1 and leading the team in +/- @+18, tied 22nd overall. Being tied to a rover probably didnt help his +/-, but when he was with Lindstein, I believe he was only scored on twice 5v5 in world juniors. Thats more relevant than how many dman outscored him.

On the flipside, you look at Reinbacher with Kloten, similar mold of defense first player but with a little bit more offensive flair. and they dont even play him on the PK. If that happens with Willander, I'll be worried.

 

[Hodgy]

Doesn't this just tell you that looking at production for defensemen is a poor metric for projecting future upside? You can find these examples in any season and most of these players won't make it. Casselsten is 5'8.

As long as he's not putting up a 0-0-0 stat line, I don't think there's much to be worried about, particularly if he's projected as a two-way defenseman. Examples like McAvoy, Werenski, and Makar have been brought up. Makar got outscored by Ian Mitchell, Chad Krys, and Quinn Hughes (not drafted yet) in his D+1 NCAA season. All around the same age or younger in Hughes' case.

As someone else noted above, all this is telling you is that defender points at low levels is a really bad way to evaluate those prospects.

Just because some 5'8 midget getting PP1 time put up more points ... it doesn't mean anything.

People think Mynio is a good prospect and you could do exactly the same laundry list of crappy/little/old players who out-produced him last year (and this year).

Unless I am missing something, the context of my response was to MS' post which seemed to excuse Willander's production by citing the fact that he didn't get PP time because he was blocked behind Hutson. So, I looked at last year's production where that woudn't have been the same concern since he wasn't losing minutes to a player of Hutson's quality. But, even where he wasn't blocked by a player like Hutson (and no, I don't consider an undrafted player the same age as Willander who played 19 games as a real impediment, or a player that played like 7 games) his production still wasn't very good.

Note that I am not providing an opinion on how important production is for projecting a player like Willander. And in fact, I've already said that I don't think its overly important given that Wilalnder was never drafted as an offensive defensement.

 

[clay]

Willander's producing at a better clip than Brock Faber did in his D + 1 and D + 2 seasons and Faber is now a top pairing NHL defenseman. Both players are defense first who have/had questions about their offensive upside. I think Willander's D + 1 production is as good as anyone could have expected for his first year in North America given that he isn't getting PP1 reps.

 

[God]

Unless I am missing something, the context of my response was to MS' post which seemed to excuse Willander's production by citing the fact that he didn't get PP time because he was blocked behind Hutson. So, I looked at last year's production where that woudn't have been the same concern since he wasn't losing minutes to a player of Hutson's quality. But, even where he wasn't blocked by a player like Hutson (and no, I don't consider an undrafted player the same age as Willander who played 19 games as a real impediment, or a player that played like 7 games) his production still wasn't very good.

Note that I am not providing an opinion on how important production is for projecting a player like Willander. And in fact, I've already said that I don't think its overly important given that Wilalnder was never drafted as an offensive defensement.

If I just click on random games here J20 SM-slutspel | stats.swehockey.se

Casselsten is PP1 and Willander is PP2

Casselsten: RBK - FRÖ (6-2)
Willander: FRÖ - RBK (3-4)

Obviously, you and I don't know the exact usage, which probably changes over time. But this pretty clearly shows he wasn't getting consistent PP1 usage... probably because as a coach, you put the small defender on PP1 and save the bigger guy for PK1.