Some stats, from
Natural Stat Trick
5v5 (of goalies with at least 500 5v5 minutes this year - 36 goalies)
- Andersen's SV% is actually strong 5v5, 92.7%, 9th of 36 goalies
- In terms of "expected SV%" (what an average goalie would do with the shot quality he's faced), he's basically the same - his expected SV% is 92.3%, so he's +0.4% better than expected, which puts him 8th of 36 goalies in terms of actual - expected. For reference Vasi is #1 at +2.6%, Matt Murray last at -3.5%
4v5 PK (of goalies with at least 50 4v5 minutes this year - 38 goalies)
- Andersen's SV% is pretty weak 4v5, 81.7%, 30th of 38 goalies
- In terms of "expected SV%" (what an average goalie would do with the shot quality he's faced), he's similarly bad - his expected SV% is 89.5%, so he's -7.8% worse than expected, 31st of 36 goalies in terms of actual - expected. For reference Fleury is #1 at +6.7%, Saros last at -11.3%
So yeah, the stats suggest he's been a decently above average starter 5v5, top 8-9ish in the league, but very weak on the PK, basically not starter quality at all, ~30-31st on the PK. He's getting lit up hard enough on the PK to make him a well below average starter overall, despite being solid at ES.
I think the underlying thing there is that he's a big, positional, "let the puck hit me" type goalie, who's great at stopping easy-to-average shots, but weak at the high danger shots, where really aggressive, athletic goalies tend to shine. Even strength is mostly easy-to-average shots, so he does well, but PKs are full of high danger shots, where he gets lit up.
To maximize his performance this year, the coaching staff should focus on the PK. Figure out what kind of chances he's good/bad at, work towards a PK scheme that allows the chances/shots he's decent at stopping, and works like hell to disallow the types of chances he sucks at. If we can find a way to get even average PK performance out of Freddy, he'll be acceptable for this year, as he's playing fine at ES. Freddy is the main reason we've got a below average PK this year, and his skillset isn't going to magically improve at his age, so we need to find a way to tweak what kind of chances we allow on the PK to get the most out of him.
I don't think we should re-sign him - he was very good his first 3 seasons with us, but he's been trending down significantly the last 2 years, and will be 32 at the start of next season. It's not a good time to make a bet on him. However, I do think we should ride out the season with him, and try to get the best out of him, which mostly means figuring out a way to make our PK work with Andy in net.
