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Tribute Timothy Liljegren part 2

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stickty111 said:
I'm still going to say Holl is an NHL d man, and at his best, I like him more then Dermott. However, his spot shouldn't be permanent in the lineup. I think the fact it might be is the problem.
Click to expand...

Holl sat out a handful of games in a row as a healthy scratch, and the only d-man with fewer GP is Liljegren. I definitely wouldn't suggest that Holl has a permanent spot in the lineup.
 
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VanW27 said:
1. I said they've been generally good since Holl has been back in the lineup, save for the horrendous turnovers
2. Muzzin has been on the ice for 19 of the 34 EVGA for the Leafs this year, while playing 364 ES minutes out of 986 total ES minutes for the team.
  • 56% of all ES goal against have been scored while Muzzin is on the ice, while playing 37% of the minutes.
We are the 3rd best defensive team in the league in spite of how poorly our "top tough usage" matchup pair has performed. 1st and 3rd pair have been terrific.
Click to expand...

You make a solid point for sure.

And there is no doubt that Holl (and Rielly) struggled to start the year.

We've had 6 pairings that have gotten any real minutes 5v5.

I'll order them in general order of qoc:

Muzzin-Brodie: 54.3xgf%, 58.8gf%
Muzzin-Holl: 52.7xgf%, 35.7gf%
Rielly-Brodie: 53.0xgf%, 61.6gf%
Rielly-Dermott: 36.9xgf%, 40.7gf%
Sandin-Lilly: 69.2xgf%, 48.7gf%
Sandin-Dermott: 68.9xgf%, 66.2gf%

There's one pairing that was irredeemably bad - Rielly-Dermott. They weren't even getting super tough usage but just didn't work at all.

Other than that pairing, the other pairings have all been quite good by xgf%, though you're right that there's obviously been an issue with the Muzzin-Holl pairing when it comes to goals. And specifically goals against:

Defense

Sandin-Dermott 1.10ga60, 1.78xga60
Rielly-Brodie 1.23ga60, 2.22xga60
Muzzin-Brodie 1.42ga60, 2.85xga60
Sandin-Liljegren 1.56ga60, 1.70xga60
Rielly-Dermott 3.34ga60, 3.52xga60
Muzzin-Holl 3.63ga60, 2.35xga60

Now some of that comes from playing against the top lines every night, but obviously that's way too high a number for them and definitely indicates that they've struggled.

The question is whether a) the struggles had any fluke in them, and b) whether the struggles were over.

Obviously we can see that unlike Rielly-Dermott, whose goals against were explained by their expected goals against, for Muzzin-Holl they're posting a very good expected goals against number despite giving away so many goals. So maybe you're right and they've been giving up EXTREME bad chances that xga doesn't quite capture correctly. Or maybe they've been a bit unlucky. Or maybe both. Interesting that Muzzin-Brodie were significantly poorer by xga, but still didn't give up many goals.

It's hard to tell in this sample - and yes for sure by the eye test Holl definitely struggled early on (as did all the top 4, really) - but we could maybe see if there was some flukiness if we do some splits.

For Holl in particular we could see how he's looked in his first 7gms before benching compared to his 7gms since going back into the lineup:

First 7gms: 4.99ga/60, 3.02xga/60
Last 7gms: 1.45ga/60, 1.87xga/60

So really it doesn't even look like fluke - he was flat out bad to start the year, giving up the most goals and the most expected goals on the defense before getting benched.

But that's turned around drastically since he returned, and he and his pairing are back to being excellent in top usage by both goals and expected goals. And that goes for the entire top-4 really - they all struggled to start but now seem back to firing on all cylinders again.

1st 7gms:

Muzzin-Holl: 50.4xgf% (2.62/2.58), 16.5gf% (1.18/5.98)
Rielly-Brodie: 49.8xgf% (2.53/2.55), 57.1gf% (1.99/1.50)
Sandin-Dermott: 70.7xgf% (3.77/1.56), 59.5gf% (2.17/1.48)

Last 7gms:

Muzzin-Holl: 58.3xgf% (2.63/1.88), 64.0gf% (2.77/1.56)
Rielly-Brodie: 54.5xgf% (2.05/1.72), 66.5gf% (2.04/1.03)
Sandin-Lilly: 64.0xgf% (4.12/2.32), 65.1gf% (2.38/1.27)
Sandin-Dermott: 55.0xgf% (2.97/2.43), ---gf%

So even if you think Holl was fully to blame for all the goals against early on and that expecgted goals are misleading, you'd have to admit at this point that since he's come back in that problem has dissappeared - he's not giving up fewer goals than expected, and his expceted goals against are very low to begin with.

Even then i would still say there was a whole bunch of bad luck in those early numbers, though Holl was definitely playing poorly then too.

But given that Muzzin-Holl has been one of the best top matchup pairings in hockey since they were put together, I'm thinking the recent numbers show a guy who just had a slow start and now has his head back on straight.

Last 3yrs, minimum 800min:

1. Slavin-Hamilton 57.4xgf%
2. Josi-Ellis 56.9xgf%
3. Muzzin-Holl 56.8xgf%
4. Heiskenen-Oleksiak 56.4xgf%
5. Suter-Spurgeon 56.1xgf%
6. Pelech-Pulock 55.9xgf%
7. Ekblad-Weegar 55.8xgf%
8. McDonagh-Cernak 55.2xgf%
9. Chiarot-Weber 53.8xgf%
10. Rielly-Brodie 53.4xgf%

Now you might want to say that this year they have a great GAA despite the Muzz-Holl pairing, but since they were first put together and became our top matchup pairing, the leafs are 9th in the league in goals against, and 5th in expected goals against, and I have a hard time agreeing that they've done that "despite" their top matchup pairing which ranks 3rd in the league in xgf% over that time.
 
as much as Holl has sucked, so has Muzzin.
Lil has looked better than both of them, save his much more limited ice time and exposure, which could easily flip the scale, or not. he has been playing a pretty decent, smart and simple D, quick crisp passes out of the zone, get open for his partner, and rush when there is opportunity, and he seldom makes a pinch he doesnt win. ...if its a 50/50 pinch I'm always on the side of play it safe, and dont pinch (unless we are down and its late and we need offense, and have had dominating zone time already) the bad pinches that Holl/Muzzin/Demott make drives me up the wall. Reilly makes a few bad ones also, but, he's usually quick enough to at least catch the trailer. Brodie may be the only one that is pretty solid/safe in that regard.
 
zeke said:
You make a solid point for sure.

And there is no doubt that Holl (and Rielly) struggled to start the year.

We've had 6 pairings that have gotten any real minutes 5v5.

I'll order them in general order of qoc:

Muzzin-Brodie: 54.3xgf%, 58.8gf%
Muzzin-Holl: 52.7xgf%, 35.7gf%
Rielly-Brodie: 53.0xgf%, 61.6gf%
Rielly-Dermott: 36.9xgf%, 40.7gf%
Sandin-Lilly: 69.2xgf%, 48.7gf%
Sandin-Dermott: 68.9xgf%, 66.2gf%

There's one pairing that was irredeemably bad - Rielly-Dermott. They weren't even getting super tough usage but just didn't work at all.

Other than that pairing, the other pairings have all been quite good by xgf%, though you're right that there's obviously been an issue with the Muzzin-Holl pairing when it comes to goals. And specifically goals against:

Defense

Sandin-Dermott 1.10ga60, 1.78xga60
Rielly-Brodie 1.23ga60, 2.22xga60
Muzzin-Brodie 1.42ga60, 2.85xga60
Sandin-Liljegren 1.56ga60, 1.70xga60
Rielly-Dermott 3.34ga60, 3.52xga60
Muzzin-Holl 3.63ga60, 2.35xga60

Now some of that comes from playing against the top lines every night, but obviously that's way too high a number for them and definitely indicates that they've struggled.

The question is whether a) the struggles had any fluke in them, and b) whether the struggles were over.

Obviously we can see that unlike Rielly-Dermott, whose goals against were explained by their expected goals against, for Muzzin-Holl they're posting a very good expected goals against number despite giving away so many goals. So maybe you're right and they've been giving up EXTREME bad chances that xga doesn't quite capture correctly. Or maybe they've been a bit unlucky. Or maybe both. Interesting that Muzzin-Brodie were significantly poorer by xga, but still didn't give up many goals.

It's hard to tell in this sample - and yes for sure by the eye test Holl definitely struggled early on (as did all the top 4, really) - but we could maybe see if there was some flukiness if we do some splits.

For Holl in particular we could see how he's looked in his first 7gms before benching compared to his 7gms since going back into the lineup:

First 7gms: 4.99ga/60, 3.02xga/60
Last 7gms: 1.45ga/60, 1.87xga/60

So really it doesn't even look like fluke - he was flat out bad to start the year, giving up the most goals and the most expected goals on the defense before getting benched.

But that's turned around drastically since he returned, and he and his pairing are back to being excellent in top usage by both goals and expected goals. And that goes for the entire top-4 really - they all struggled to start but now seem back to firing on all cylinders again.

1st 7gms:

Muzzin-Holl: 50.4xgf% (2.62/2.58), 16.5gf% (1.18/5.98)
Rielly-Brodie: 49.8xgf% (2.53/2.55), 57.1gf% (1.99/1.50)
Sandin-Dermott: 70.7xgf% (3.77/1.56), 59.5gf% (2.17/1.48)

Last 7gms:

Muzzin-Holl: 58.3xgf% (2.63/1.88), 64.0gf% (2.77/1.56)
Rielly-Brodie: 54.5xgf% (2.05/1.72), 66.5gf% (2.04/1.03)
Sandin-Lilly: 64.0xgf% (4.12/2.32), 65.1gf% (2.38/1.27)
Sandin-Dermott: 55.0xgf% (2.97/2.43), ---gf%

So even if you think Holl was fully to blame for all the goals against early on and that expecgted goals are misleading, you'd have to admit at this point that since he's come back in that problem has dissappeared - he's not giving up fewer goals than expected, and his expceted goals against are very low to begin with.

Even then i would still say there was a whole bunch of bad luck in those early numbers, though Holl was definitely playing poorly then too.

But given that Muzzin-Holl has been one of the best top matchup pairings in hockey since they were put together, I'm thinking the recent numbers show a guy who just had a slow start and now has his head back on straight.

Last 3yrs, minimum 800min:

1. Slavin-Hamilton 57.4xgf%
2. Josi-Ellis 56.9xgf%
3. Muzzin-Holl 56.8xgf%
4. Heiskenen-Oleksiak 56.4xgf%
5. Suter-Spurgeon 56.1xgf%
6. Pelech-Pulock 55.9xgf%
7. Ekblad-Weegar 55.8xgf%
8. McDonagh-Cernak 55.2xgf%
9. Chiarot-Weber 53.8xgf%
10. Rielly-Brodie 53.4xgf%

Now you might want to say that this year they have a great GAA despite the Muzz-Holl pairing, but since they were first put together and became our top matchup pairing, the leafs are 9th in the league in goals against, and 5th in expected goals against, and I have a hard time agreeing that they've done that "despite" their top matchup pairing which ranks 3rd in the league in xgf% over that time.
Click to expand...
It wasn't just a slow start, Holl seems to one of the players to have been stricken by the flu bug that was around the team early on in the season.

Leafs D Holl (illness) will not play on Saturday - TSN.ca
 
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Zeke, you are a respected Leaf fan, incredibly knowledgeable..

So many questions for you...

But since you are zeke...

Will limit it, to one or two...

Your top three coaches players, eras that you have watched or observed...

That is a great start, and whatever became of Bleafer...
 
zeke said:
You make a solid point for sure.

And there is no doubt that Holl (and Rielly) struggled to start the year.

We've had 6 pairings that have gotten any real minutes 5v5.

I'll order them in general order of qoc:

Muzzin-Brodie: 54.3xgf%, 58.8gf%
Muzzin-Holl: 52.7xgf%, 35.7gf%
Rielly-Brodie: 53.0xgf%, 61.6gf%
Rielly-Dermott: 36.9xgf%, 40.7gf%
Sandin-Lilly: 69.2xgf%, 48.7gf%
Sandin-Dermott: 68.9xgf%, 66.2gf%

There's one pairing that was irredeemably bad - Rielly-Dermott. They weren't even getting super tough usage but just didn't work at all.

Other than that pairing, the other pairings have all been quite good by xgf%, though you're right that there's obviously been an issue with the Muzzin-Holl pairing when it comes to goals. And specifically goals against:

Defense

Sandin-Dermott 1.10ga60, 1.78xga60
Rielly-Brodie 1.23ga60, 2.22xga60
Muzzin-Brodie 1.42ga60, 2.85xga60
Sandin-Liljegren 1.56ga60, 1.70xga60
Rielly-Dermott 3.34ga60, 3.52xga60
Muzzin-Holl 3.63ga60, 2.35xga60

Now some of that comes from playing against the top lines every night, but obviously that's way too high a number for them and definitely indicates that they've struggled.

The question is whether a) the struggles had any fluke in them, and b) whether the struggles were over.

Obviously we can see that unlike Rielly-Dermott, whose goals against were explained by their expected goals against, for Muzzin-Holl they're posting a very good expected goals against number despite giving away so many goals. So maybe you're right and they've been giving up EXTREME bad chances that xga doesn't quite capture correctly. Or maybe they've been a bit unlucky. Or maybe both. Interesting that Muzzin-Brodie were significantly poorer by xga, but still didn't give up many goals.

It's hard to tell in this sample - and yes for sure by the eye test Holl definitely struggled early on (as did all the top 4, really) - but we could maybe see if there was some flukiness if we do some splits.

For Holl in particular we could see how he's looked in his first 7gms before benching compared to his 7gms since going back into the lineup:

First 7gms: 4.99ga/60, 3.02xga/60
Last 7gms: 1.45ga/60, 1.87xga/60

So really it doesn't even look like fluke - he was flat out bad to start the year, giving up the most goals and the most expected goals on the defense before getting benched.

But that's turned around drastically since he returned, and he and his pairing are back to being excellent in top usage by both goals and expected goals. And that goes for the entire top-4 really - they all struggled to start but now seem back to firing on all cylinders again.

1st 7gms:

Muzzin-Holl: 50.4xgf% (2.62/2.58), 16.5gf% (1.18/5.98)
Rielly-Brodie: 49.8xgf% (2.53/2.55), 57.1gf% (1.99/1.50)
Sandin-Dermott: 70.7xgf% (3.77/1.56), 59.5gf% (2.17/1.48)

Last 7gms:

Muzzin-Holl: 58.3xgf% (2.63/1.88), 64.0gf% (2.77/1.56)
Rielly-Brodie: 54.5xgf% (2.05/1.72), 66.5gf% (2.04/1.03)
Sandin-Lilly: 64.0xgf% (4.12/2.32), 65.1gf% (2.38/1.27)
Sandin-Dermott: 55.0xgf% (2.97/2.43), ---gf%

So even if you think Holl was fully to blame for all the goals against early on and that expecgted goals are misleading, you'd have to admit at this point that since he's come back in that problem has dissappeared - he's not giving up fewer goals than expected, and his expceted goals against are very low to begin with.

Even then i would still say there was a whole bunch of bad luck in those early numbers, though Holl was definitely playing poorly then too.

But given that Muzzin-Holl has been one of the best top matchup pairings in hockey since they were put together, I'm thinking the recent numbers show a guy who just had a slow start and now has his head back on straight.

Last 3yrs, minimum 800min:

1. Slavin-Hamilton 57.4xgf%
2. Josi-Ellis 56.9xgf%
3. Muzzin-Holl 56.8xgf%
4. Heiskenen-Oleksiak 56.4xgf%
5. Suter-Spurgeon 56.1xgf%
6. Pelech-Pulock 55.9xgf%
7. Ekblad-Weegar 55.8xgf%
8. McDonagh-Cernak 55.2xgf%
9. Chiarot-Weber 53.8xgf%
10. Rielly-Brodie 53.4xgf%

Now you might want to say that this year they have a great GAA despite the Muzz-Holl pairing, but since they were first put together and became our top matchup pairing, the leafs are 9th in the league in goals against, and 5th in expected goals against, and I have a hard time agreeing that they've done that "despite" their top matchup pairing which ranks 3rd in the league in xgf% over that time.
Click to expand...

You are wrong…..


Sorry, I couldn’t resist….. :)
 
nobody said:
I'm happy to see that the general public is slowly waking up to what myself and many other posters here have been preaching for years. Lilly is a stud, all he needed was confidence and some trust from the coaching staff to let him settle in and do his thing. I still think he has immense offensive potential that he showed glimpses of in the AHL which can really blow up given the actual high-quality players he's playing with on the big club vs the Marlies. If Keefe and the team give him some more security and a longer leash to jump up into plays/carry the puck up into plays, we have a legitimate 2 way D who can slot in the top 4 for us.

Sandin - Dermott --> Minute munching pair (take the zone starts between the other 2 pairs)
Rielly - Lilly --> Let Rielly go wild with less defensive responsibilities (O-zone starts heavy)
Muzzin - Brodie --> Shutdown pair (sheltered minutes but mostly D-zone starts)

I would probably target a mean RHD for near league minimum or very cheap for the #7 role and rotate Brodie up to the top pair if Dermott doesn't perform or someone gets hurt. I am not a fan of Justin Holl because he doesn't give us enough grit nor does he give us enough defensive stability for the cap he has and moving him probably covers the raises that will go towards Lilly/Sandin contracts that are up for renewal.
Click to expand...

Oh for sure, we knew he had it at the draft, but was going to have to get used to a new culture and language, get used to a smaller rink and a game that happens faster and is a lot more physical. Add to that he's a kid and still growing up.

He had a whole bunch of stuff thrown at him all at once you could see him getting more comfortable by the end of season 2, and, not yet fully grown. I think the Leafs made the right choices with him and didn't overwhelm him with too much too soon and hurt his confidence or get him hurt.

I'm thinking he still needs some more development just to reach his peak and assume a much larger and permanent role in the top 4 as a crafty guy who can take pucks away to break cycles, break up 2 on 1s, tie up and move guys out of the crease and deliver a smart and accurate first pass that start transitions.
 
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I’m noticing a few of the media people who were hard on Liljegren are turning around on him. That’s good to hear! Hope this guy can keep it up has been solid in the bottom pair so far!
 
Apex Predator said:
I’m noticing a few of the media people who were hard on Liljegren are turning around on him. That’s good to hear! Hope this guy can keep it up has been solid in the bottom pair so far!
Click to expand...
Mirtle mentioned Liljegren is his biggest surprise. Siegal said it's made him think if we are just impatient.
 
stickty111 said:
Mirtle mentioned Liljegren is his biggest surprise. Siegal said it's made him think if we are just impatient.
Click to expand...

yep super shocking that a 1st round pick that put up record paces for teenagers in the AHL, and then dominated the AHL at ages 20-21, would end up being a good NHL dman at age 22.

and nice use of the royal "we", Siegal.
 
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Gardiner said:
Has Carlo C changed his opinion? I remember he got a lot of heat on twitter.
Click to expand...
Carlo is long long gone from da day to day of arena life my friend .. I have not seen at a rink for many many years .. he is only relying on what other media types say .. most of that is FED info .. but he should not be so hard line in his opinions when they are not based on seeing anything for himself
 
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Apex Predator said:
I’m noticing a few of the media people who were hard on Liljegren are turning around on him. That’s good to hear! Hope this guy can keep it up has been solid in the bottom pair so far!
Click to expand...
I’m not a media person, but happy to admit I was too low on him :) He looks real solid out there - previously his AHL play hadn’t really translated to his NHL stints, but it is now.

I figured he was still a year away from being an NHL regular, would likely become a bottom pairing guy, with a decent chance to be a 2nd pairing guy. Now I’d say he’s ready to be a regular today, will likely become a 2nd pairing guy, and has a chance to be top pairing.

I’d like to see him tried with Muzzin for a few games. Muzzin/Holl have sucked this year, worth a switch up. And while Sandin/Lily have mostly looked good, sometimes 2 newbs out there at once can lead to some breakdowns, like in the latest Pitt game where they got consistently worked whenever caught out there against the Crosby line. Having both paired with more of a steady vet makes sense IMO.

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Lily
Sandin - Dermott
 
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Considering a lot of the negative media talk came from primarily one outlet (The Athletic) that had strong ties to certain people in Leafs management, I think they either didn't want to praise the prior regime too much or people within the org weren't pimping them up as much as their own recent successful picks like Sandin and Robertson. Mirtle and Siegel aren't talent evaluators, they rely on sources and are beat writers by trade. Bourne has deep connections within the Marlies/Leafs, and wasn't really a big Lou fan.
 
stickty111 said:
This is just a great pairing. They read off each other really well. One covers up for the other when there is an error like Sandin did today, and sometimes it's vice versa.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't mind seeing this pair take a few extra minutes a night against a higher QOC

Start getting them used to it now just in case we need them to take more responsiblity later in the season

They are killing it now, so slowly ratchet up the pressure and see how they cope with it
 
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zeke said:
yep super shocking that a 1st round pick that put up record paces for teenagers in the AHL, and then dominated the AHL at ages 20-21, would end up being a good NHL dman at age 22.

and nice use of the royal "we", Siegal.
Click to expand...


I was thinking that. The typical slight of hand by Toronto media. If Lilly turns into a top 4 for us - it will be "the fans" that never liked him and were ready to give up on him
 
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93LEAFS said:
Considering a lot of the negative media talk came from primarily one outlet (The Athletic) that had strong ties to certain people in Leafs management, I think they either didn't want to praise the prior regime too much or people within the org weren't pimping them up as much as their own recent successful picks like Sandin and Robertson. Mirtle and Siegel aren't talent evaluators, they rely on sources and are beat writers by trade. Bourne has deep connections within the Marlies/Leafs, and wasn't really a big Lou fan.
Click to expand...

Lou shouldn't have much bearing on Timmy. Like Matthews, he was the absolute most obvious thing you could do.....like literally all you had to do was not screw it up and go off the board. Everyone and his dog was pretty much heartbroken that he was exactly what we needed but there was no way in hell he would ever drop to us, then all you could do was salivate and pray "please Lou don't screw this up", which fortunately he didn't.
 
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