A number of points... I'm really, really tired of Canuck fans visiting, whether "in peace" or not, to tell us how great Luongo is, that his contract is reasonable and that he will turn around the Leafs. I live in Vancouver and I see him regularly. He would clearly be a big improvement on what the Leafs have now but there are already signs the decline may have begun. He is now an above average, rather than an elite goalie, IMO. And anyone who thinks the contract is not a problem is inhaling too much BC Bud. But it is possible that acquiring him might be good idea, provided, of course, that the price is right. No mortgaging the future for a depreciating asset!
I want to see the details of the new CBA, but if it is true that teams can amnesty a contract, if they wish, after this season or next, much of the sting is taken out of the contract. Two seasons with the Leafs should buy time for younger goalies to develop and tell us how he will play behind something other than a President's Trophy winning team. The Leafs have the cap space for the next two years, and if they can shed the contract after that point, the spectre of carrying the big cap numbers long after his effectiveness has disappeared, is no longer something to worry about. They just would have to be hardheaded two seasons from now.
The best thing for the Leafs future would probably be another top five draft position, especially in what is heralded as an excellent draft year, like 2003. But Burke has consistently tried to make the playoffs. I can't see him changing course in a final year of his present contract. He both wants to make the playoffs and likely needs to do so to keep his job. An upgrade in goal would be the best way to reach that plateau.
There is no guarantee that Luongo would backstop the Leafs to a playoff position. An injury or even a season like 2009-2010 when Luongo verged on mediocre much of the time, could always happen. (Heck, the injury business is true of any goalie in the league.) But the Leafs goaltending has been so poor, except for a brief stretch by Reimer as a rookie, that it is a worthwhile gamble for the team, IMO.
There might also be some potential trading matches between the two teams. I never thought Kaberle to Vancouver ever was a good match of needs but this trade might be. The lead story in the sports section of the Vancouver Sun today identified the needs of the Canucks as a third line centre, a depth defenseman and veteran backup. The Leafs could supply the first two.
No, don't trade Gardner. Don't deal the first round draft choice but see if a deal can be struck for a more reasonable price, assuming Luongo is willing to come to Toronto. If either of those assets is the price, say "No thanks," and walk away.