Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline has passed. Time to see what this can do (most acquisitions expected to be present Thursday in Minnesota)

[stats1]

I'm personally glad the front office hedged during the trade deadline instead of going all in with this group. The roster as currently constructed is just too flawed to fix in-season without costing us our entire farm system. We can better fill the holes this off season and just ride it out with what we have this playoffs hoping for the best.

In the off season we only stand to lose Stripling and we can add important pieces just for just money. We also go into 2012 possibly adding a more experienced Tiedemann, Zulu, and Moreno to the core (instead of trading them for one guy), with other prospects like Horowitz and Barger knocking on the door for a call-up.

The team needs to deal Jansen or Kirk and run with Moreno. Kid will be 23 next year, he’s controllable. Bring in some kids to the BP who aren’t in the plans to be a starter. If we’re not going to go all in with trades at least get some of these kids up and see what they can do

 

[Hoverhand]

The team needs to deal Jansen or Kirk and run with Moreno. Kid will be 23 next year, he’s controllable. Bring in some kids to the BP who aren’t in the plans to be a starter. If we’re not going to go all in with trades at least get some of these kids up and see what they can do

You cannot trade Kirk unless the return is astronomical. Catchers with a 140 wRC+ with positive defensive metrics are too rare. He has a 4.3 WARP (the war you want to use for catchers) and it's only August 7th.

Jansen has been babip'd into oblivion his whole career, I dont even know what his trade value would look like right now but it's probably not very sexy.

#1 plan for me is revisit the Tigers in the offseason about Skubal and see if you can make a package centered around Moreno-Skubal work.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yankees are blowing chunks right now and their bullpen is not better than ours especially after the injuries they have suffered.

I'm personally glad the front office hedged during the trade deadline instead of going all in with this group. The roster as currently constructed is just too flawed to fix in-season without costing us our entire farm system. We can better fill the holes this off season and just ride it out with what we have this playoffs hoping for the best.

In the off season we only stand to lose Stripling and we can add important pieces just for just money. We also go into 2012 possibly adding a more experienced Tiedemann, Zulu, and Moreno to the core (instead of trading them for one guy), with other prospects like Horowitz and Barger knocking on the door for a call-up.

I just don't agree that the roster is that flawed. Everybody is fawning over the Yanks but they are not as good as their record suggests. This Jays team is really good. Yanks went "all-in" but they are way more flawed than Toronto.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yankees are blowing chunks right now and their bullpen is not better than ours especially after the injuries they have suffered.



I just don't agree that the roster is that flawed. Everybody is fawning over the Yanks but they are not as good as their record suggests. This Jays team is really good. Yanks went "all-in" but they are way more flawed than Toronto.

Just make the playoffs and this team.can beat anyone

 

[SDig14]

You cannot trade Kirk unless the return is astronomical. Catchers with a 140 wRC+ with positive defensive metrics are too rare. He has a 4.3 WARP (the war you want to use for catchers) and it's only August 7th.

Jansen has been babip'd into oblivion his whole career, I dont even know what his trade value would look like right now but it's probably not very sexy.

#1 plan for me is revisit the Tigers in the offseason about Skubal and see if you can make a package centered around Moreno-Skubal work.

Id rather deal Jansen for less than ever deal Moreno. He already has better hit tool and stronger and quicker arm than Jano and I think he will be at least as good framing. He has less power right now but I'm bit too worried about that and the game calling will come.

I would need to do way better than a Skubal to deal Moreno.

I think Kirk and Moreno going forward would be a solid combo of everything, even though this front office may find it tough to trade Jano.

 

[MAB1]

You cannot trade Kirk unless the return is astronomical. Catchers with a 140 wRC+ with positive defensive metrics are too rare. He has a 4.3 WARP (the war you want to use for catchers) and it's only August 7th.

Jansen has been babip'd into oblivion his whole career, I dont even know what his trade value would look like right now but it's probably not very sexy.

#1 plan for me is revisit the Tigers in the offseason about Skubal and see if you can make a package centered around Moreno-Skubal work.

You don't trade the #1 prospect in all of baseball for Tarik Skubal...you trade Jansen + for him if you must.

 

[phillipmike]

Probably because half of his 2022 home starts came last month… you remember his first start? At home? Didn’t even get through the first inning? There’s no explanation for why he would pitch better in a hitter’s friendly park like ours. Unless you’re talking about his career, where majority of his home starts have come in a pitcher friendly park like Target Field. I’ve spoken to someone who is a Twins fan about Berrios and this has always been an issue with him. He’ll look like an ace for parts of a season, and AAA calibre in the others. In the end, he usually settles around mid rotation numbers. Obviously this is the worst of his seasons to date but unfortunately (or fortunately since you expect regression) this isn’t completely out of the ordinary with him.

Also yes, mid rotation. Berrios has a backloaded contract where he’s getting paid 10m-18m aav over the first 5 seasons of his contract, with a 2/48 on the last 2 seasons (with an opt out just before). They were creative enough with his contract to not make it a hindrance in adding salary over the next 5+ years. If he somehow enjoys an amazing age 32 season, he could opt out for a bigger contract and free the team of 24m aav.

Also worth noting he is making less than Kikuchi this season ($10M vs $16M). Before the season, Ryu, Gausman, and Kikuchi were all making more than Berrios. I assume the Jays add another big ticket pitcher this off-season so he could stay 4th when his money increases and Kikuchi drops to $10M. Berrios will be a 3/4 pitcher for us which is good considering his track record. Wasn’t to enamoured with acquiring him or the extension but he was the best pitcher available with control at the deadline last year and we got him. Less than a year later fans are upset with him and want us to use assets and do it again.

It appears when it’s all said and done Berrios will for sure be behind Manoah and Gasuman for this season and in the future. So at best he is a number 3. Add another big name pitcher making more than $16M, and he’s your number 4. Would really really like Verlander if he opts out;

Verlander
Manoah
Gausman
Berrios
Kikuchi
White

If not Verlander, Rodon would be great.

Only Stripling and Phelps are free agents this off-season. Add a TORP, relief help and trade for a lefty bat, you’re good to go.

Pretty crazy to see how high his star % is.

And if covid didn’t hit, he is 21 in AA doing this. Probably a consensus top 100 prospect at that point.

 

[phillipmike]

We are still discussing the deadline? lol We added BP and Rotation help now and for next year without touching our top prospects/assets. To me thats win win, even last night you could see the difference having those extra arms that arent complete write offs able to come in and keep the game close.

Zwelling and BNS were on ATL and they were underwhelmed with the deadline but said perhaps they were being too judgmental based on names.

They said if the FO told fans before August 2nd that they would come out of the deadline with the following, fans would be very happy;
-Top 5 relief pitcher in WAR with another year of control
-Another relief pitcher with 5.5 years of control and is top 10 in K/BB and GB%
-Contact bat who is an excellent base runner, can play multiple positions, doesn’t miss games and had 40 doubles and 40 SBs last year
-A 5-6 starter/swingman with 5.5 years of control who had similar numbers to 2022 Syndergaard

And didn’t have to give up anyone on your roster or a top prospect except for Groshans, then that’s a great deadline.

But it’s the names fans get attached to. Jays could have acquired Syndergaard, Igeisias, and Fulmer and the fans would be happier not realizing these guys have less production and would have cost you more in terms of payroll or acquisition cost and your team isn’t a whole lot better. Not to mention you can’t force other teams to trade with you.

 

[Discoverer]

Zwelling and BNS were on ATL and they were underwhelmed with the deadline but said perhaps they were being too judgmental based on names.

They said if the FO told fans before August 2nd that they would come out of the deadline with the following, fans would be very happy;
-Top 5 relief pitcher in WAR with another year of control
-Another relief pitcher with 5.5 years of control and is top 10 in K/BB and GB%
-Contact bat who is an excellent base runner, can play multiple positions, doesn’t miss games and had 40 doubles and 40 SBs last year
-A 5-6 starter/swingman with 5.5 years of control who had similar numbers to 2022 Syndergaard

And didn’t have to give up anyone on your roster or a top prospect except for Groshans, then that’s a great deadline.

But it’s the names fans get attached to. Jays could have acquired Syndergaard, Igeisias, and Fulmer and the fans would be happier not realizing these guys have less production and would have cost you more in terms of payroll or acquisition cost and your team isn’t a whole lot better. Not to mention you can’t force other teams to trade with you.

Yeah, a lot of reactions have been weird. Lots of people wanted the "name guys" and were pissed we didn't get them even though White/Bass/Pop is pretty much the equivalent on-field impact as Syndergaard/Iglesias/Fulmer would have been. Plus the guys they actually got cost less (in money and/or prospects) and come with way more team control. Then they actually made a move for an underwhelming "name" guy in Merrifield and those people were... still upset?

I don't mind being underwhelmed with the deadline. If you felt they should have gone bigger (not even Soto big, just Rodon and Happy or something) then it makes sense to be disappointed in what they did. But it sure seems like there have been a lot of strange reactions to the deadline.

 

[phillipmike]

Yeah, a lot of reactions have been weird. Lots of people wanted the "name guys" and were pissed we didn't get them even though White/Bass/Pop is pretty much the equivalent on-field impact as Syndergaard/Iglesias/Fulmer would have been. Plus the guys they actually got cost less (in money and/or prospects) and come with way more team control. Then they actually made a move for an underwhelming "name" guy in Merrifield and those people were... still upset?

I don't mind being underwhelmed with the deadline. If you felt they should have gone bigger (not even Soto big, just Rodon and Happy or something) then it makes sense to be disappointed in what they did. But it sure seems like there have been a lot of strange reactions to the deadline.

I was underwhelmed with the Jays deadline too as I bought into the headlines thinking they would add a big name. But not many big names were moved. In the end, they addressed their needs and made good trades. What matters the most is what the 4 additions do here on out.

Like look at the Yankees, many viewed them as the winners of the deadline and they haven’t won a game since, losing 4 in a row to Seattle and the Cards.

And their star acquisition, Montas has given up 6 ERs in 2 innings with 3 walks and 2 Ks. Lots of time to turn it around but these guys have to perform. Going into today’s game Benintendi has a .080 BA with Gallo having a higher WAR than him. The starting pitcher they traded to the Cards, Montgomery, just 2 hit them and won yesterday 1-0.

 

[Kurtz]

Yeah, a lot of reactions have been weird. Lots of people wanted the "name guys" and were pissed we didn't get them even though White/Bass/Pop is pretty much the equivalent on-field impact as Syndergaard/Iglesias/Fulmer would have been. Plus the guys they actually got cost less (in money and/or prospects) and come with way more team control. Then they actually made a move for an underwhelming "name" guy in Merrifield and those people were... still upset?

I don't mind being underwhelmed with the deadline. If you felt they should have gone bigger (not even Soto big, just Rodon and Happy or something) then it makes sense to be disappointed in what they did. But it sure seems like there have been a lot of strange reactions to the deadline.

It's not so much about what the Jays did - their moves were solid (although one wonders if they could have brought in another starter if they knew Stripling was injured) and Whit is certainly a name player. It's more so that we did less than the teams we are directly competing against - Seattle, Minny, NYY, etc.

 

[MAB1]

If I'm moving Moreno+Martinez+Zulueta+Biggio/Espinal + in the offseason it's for a Burnes/Alcantara type starter with years of control that could bump Manoah down a slot in the rotation. Feel a lot more comfortable dealing with inconsistent Berrios as a 4th starter as opposed to one of the top 3.

If they can move that package I mentioned for either Burnes/Alcantara and keep Tiedemann the future of their rotation would be set with Burnes/Alcantara-Manoah-Gausman-Berrios-Tiedemann to compliment that lineup.

 

[phillipmike]

It's not so much about what the Jays did - their moves were solid (although one wonders if they could have brought in another starter if they knew Stripling was injured) and Whit is certainly a name player. It's more so that we did less than the teams we are directly competing against - Seattle, Minny, NYY, etc.

I touched on this after the deadline. Yankees had to do more because they lost their best relief arm in King for the season, a starter in Severino for the regular and they were trading and adding; moved Montgomery and Gallo. Seattle and Minny had to add because there was a big gap in between them and the Jays.

Post in thread 'The trade deadline approaches (Tue, Aug 2 at 6pm ET/3pm PT) and the market is taking shape'
Blue Jays Discussion: - The trade deadline approaches (Tue, Aug 2 at 6pm ET/3pm PT) and the market is taking shape

Evaluating the Yankees and Astros Deadline Moves vs the Jays:

I hear a lot of the Yankees and Astros got better and the Jays didnt close the gap, it widened. At some level they are right but at other levels, they arent.

Yankees did more because they had to. They just lost their best reliever to Tommy John in Michael King and their 4th starter, Severino was added to the 60 man IL in Severino. And they traded a starter Montgomery and an starting OF, Gallo.

Yankees:

Added: fWAR;
Benintendi: 2.1
Effross: 1.2
Montas: 2.0
Trivino: 0.1
Bader: 1.5
Total: 6.9 WAR

Lost or Likely Replacing: fWAR;
Gallo: 0.3
King: 1.7
Montgomery: 1.4
Severino: 0.9
Gonzalez: 0.5
Total: 4.8 WAR

Bader has Plantar Fasciitis and is in a walking boot, he is supposed to return in September if everything goes well.

Astros:

Added: fWAR;
Mancini: 1.2
Vasquez: 1.1
Smith: -0.5
Total: 1.8 WAR

Lost or Likely Replacing: fWAR;
Siri: 0.7
Odorizzi: 1.2
Castro: -0.6
Total: 1.3 WAR

Jays:

Added: fWAR;
Bass: 1.4
Pop: 0.3
Merrifield: 0.6
White: 0.7
Total: 3.0 WAR

Lost or Likely Replacing: fWAR;
Beasley: -0.2
Banda: 0.0
Thornton: -0.1
Zimmer: -0.3
Total: -0.6 WAR

Aggregate WAR Added:
Jays: 3.6 fWAR
Yankees: 2.1 fWAR
Astros: 0.5 fWAR

Obviously the Jays didnt have the best deadline of the three teams but they had less holes to fill. They were replacing replacement level players with better players. Yankees were replacing star or good players with star or good players. Astros replace good or bad player with good or bad players.

And we can point to the Twins and Mariners who did a lot, but they had to, before the deadline, they were well behind the Jays.

Pre-Deadline fWAR:
Yankees: 40 fWAR
Astros: 34.4 fWAR

Blue Jays: 28.1 fWAR

Twins: 21.3 fWAR
Mariners: 20.8 fWAR

The gap between the Twins/Mariners and the Jays is almost the same as the gap between the Jays and the Yankees/Astros.

I’ll do the same exercise for Seattle and Minnesota.

Similar to the Yankees, Seattle lost France and J-Rod to injuries and didn’t replace them though I think France is back today though they will monitor him. J-Rod should be back but a wrist injury for a slugger isn’t good which is what both players have. And France has been on the IL twice for the same thing. Those are their 2 best hitters.

Mariners:

Added: fWAR;
Castillo: 2.1
Cassali: 0.3
Total: 2.4 WAR

Lost or Likely Replacing: fWAR;
Murphy/Torres: -0.2
Total: -0.2 WAR

They are running a 6 man rotation for now. Don’t know who they will replace Castillo with yet. And I assume Lamb is a bench bat not really replacing anyone. They got Boyd too but he hasn’t pitching in the majors this year. Just keeping a spot warm for J-Rod.

Twins:

Added: fWAR;
Mahle: 2.2
Lopez: 1.1
Fulmer: 0.8
Leon: 0.1
Total: 4.2 WAR

Lost or Likely Replacing: fWAR;
Jeffers (on the IL): 1.0
Smith: -0.8
Duffey: -0.4
Smelter: -0.1
Total: -0.3 WAR

Aggregate WAR Added:
Twins: 4.5 fWAR
Jays: 3.6 fWAR
Mariners: 2.2 fWAR
Yankees: 2.1 fWAR
Astros: 0.5 fWAR

To me the Twins are the only team who got better and it isn’t that much. And in all likelihood you aren’t in contention with them for a playoff spot as they are likely getting the division vs competing with the Jays for a WC spot.

 

[Discoverer]

It's not so much about what the Jays did - their moves were solid (although one wonders if they could have brought in another starter if they knew Stripling was injured) and Whit is certainly a name player. It's more so that we did less than the teams we are directly competing against - Seattle, Minny, NYY, etc.

I don't buy that the Yankees widened their gap on the Jays by more than a tiny amount. I don't think Minnesota closed the gap on the Jays by much, either.

Seattle made up some ground, but they paid a massive price to do it.

 

[weems]

Gabriel Martinez #7 ranked prospect got called up to Vancouver (A+) and hit a HR in first game.

 

[Eyedea]

Tyler Keenan, prospect acquired from the Mariners for Borucki, was also recently promoted to AA. A little high of a K rate but might have some Horwitz type trajectory to his prospect status next year.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Yankees lose again, so Jays are 9.5 back. Now they go to Seattle and Boston, and then home to face Tampa, Toronto, and the Mets.

I'm not saying there is a great chance to catch them, but things could get interesting heading into the 4 game series at Yankee Stadium.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yankees lose again, so Jays are 9.5 back. Now they go to Seattle and Boston, and then home to face Tampa, Toronto, and the Mets.

I'm not saying there is a great chance to catch them, but things could get interesting heading into the 4 game series at Yankee Stadium.

Meanwhile the Jays play 6 of their next 9 against the O's and the other 3 against Cleveland.

If they can gain 2-3 games in that time, the Jays have a big chance in that series to get a chance at the division.

 

[stickty111]

Yankees lose again, so Jays are 9.5 back. Now they go to Seattle and Boston, and then home to face Tampa, Toronto, and the Mets.

I'm not saying there is a great chance to catch them, but things could get interesting heading into the 4 game series at Yankee Stadium.

Yankees have all the makings of a team that gets upset early in the playoffs if I have ever seen one.
I'm critical of our team a lot but the positive is we are 60-48 and we haven't played our best baseball yet IMO.

 

[phillipmike]

Whit winning some fans over.

 

[phillipmike]

Jayson Stark on the Jays Deadline;
-They did fine
-they thought they could win a WS as currently constructed
-they have upside with a great offence
-rotation depth is still an issue
-but you can win a postseason series with Manoah, Gausman and this version of Berrios in games 1-2-3
-so adding depth in Mitch White makes sense
-White won’t take you into the 8th inning but he will be fine for 5 innings
-bullpen was their focus and I would say Bass and Pop don’t move the needle but there was very little out there in the bullpen market that can move the needle beyond Josh Hader
-other teams said the Jays are the third best team in the AL and can win the WS
-the problem is the matchups
-the Jays are in the terrifying best of 3 series with the Yankees or Astros waiting for you
-they had the system to make a statement like the Mariners did with Castillo but decided they didn’t want to do i

I could be wrong but I doubt Stark has any insider information on the Jays. Not much of an insider to report trades either so this could all be opinion based.

 

[The Nemesis]

Whit winning some fans over.

He's really been a shot in the arm for this team.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Whit winning some fans over.

I still don't understand the rule, though. Sanchez can't block the plate that way even if he is in possession of the ball?

 

[Discoverer]

He's really been a shot in the arm for this team.

Which is the least he can do, since they were a shot in the arm for him.

 

[Dr.Funk]

I still don't understand the rule, though. Sanchez can't block the plate that way even if he is in possession of the ball?

My understanding is he can but before the ball is there he can't be in the lane.

He was standing in the lane the entire time before the ball got there. Which is what I am gathering was wrong here.