OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

[MrBrightside]

I've said this before: DJ is a guy you do not "build around" or keep at all costs. He's not a franchise player. Move on if he's not happy here.

No one is arguing he’s either of those things. The argument is whether trading him this offseason makes sense given their other needs and the fact this is yet another make or break year for Pickett (and whether you’d get equal value in return). The return is everything to this analysis really.

 

[WickedWrister]

Seven years is a long ass time in sports.

Seven years ago Guentzel was in his rookie year and about to tie the rookie playoff scoring record, helping the Pens lift b2b cups.

Now he’s getting traded because Pens are finally facing the reality it’s been over for years.

Yeah I know its a tragedy that TJ Watt hasn't won a playoff game either. Thought Cam was the only guy with a playoff W (1-7 record yikes) but then remembered Boswell existed.

 

[MrBrightside]

Yeah I know its a tragedy that TJ Watt hasn't won a playoff game either. Thought Cam was the only guy with a playoff W (1-7 record yikes) but then remembered Boswell existed.

And I don’t think Cam played in that game in Cincinnati if I’m recalling correctly.

 

[Peat]

I think it's too early to project right now. That figure looks huge because we only have 22 guys under contract for 2025, and I believe it's the differential in the caliber of FA's you sign vs. lose, not just raw spending. Like some guys qualify as CFA's (compensatory free agents) and other's don't. James Daniels is also a FA in 2025, not sure if he qualifies for us.

I agree its early but at the same time, you can look at the pending FA list for the end of this season and make some guesses.

Right now the major pending free agents are Heyward, Johnson, Robinson, Daniels, Peterson, Herbig, Harris, Freiermuth.

Heyward, Robinson, and Peterson make up about 40m of that cap room. They won't be occupying much of it if any in 2025. New contacts for Harris and Muth probably won't touch more than a third of that in 2025 - and I can't think who else on that list is staying with the Steelers on a significant pay increase. Even if you assume the Steelers are about to readjust some of those totals, that's still going to make a decent chunk of change that's probably going to go a CFA without any of those three counting.

Also there's 10m of dead cap this coming season. That's falling in 2025 unless they do a lot of stupid mistakes they have to undo this season.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Ya this is what make me laugh every time I read someone freaking out about losing Johnson.

They have literally not won a playoff game since this dude came into the league, but losing him somehow dooms them to… not win a playoff game again?

Just trying to limit the excuses for kp. If you would rather have kp try n win with Gp boyd Ca3 unknown draft pick go for it

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I agree its early but at the same time, you can look at the pending FA list for the end of this season and make some guesses.

Right now the major pending free agents are Heyward, Johnson, Robinson, Daniels, Peterson, Herbig, Harris, Freiermuth.

Heyward, Robinson, and Peterson make up about 40m of that cap room. They won't be occupying much of it if any in 2025. New contacts for Harris and Muth probably won't touch more than a third of that in 2025 - and I can't think who else on that list is staying with the Steelers on a significant pay increase. Even if you assume the Steelers are about to readjust some of those totals, that's still going to make a decent chunk of change that's probably going to go a CFA without any of those three counting.

Also there's 10m of dead cap this coming season. That's falling in 2025 unless they do a lot of stupid mistakes they have to undo this season.

Cam could still be on the roster especially if they do an extension to open up 16 million this season. If he is willing to play at 7 million a year like cambell he could get 2 more years.
In 25 Daniel’s Muth Najee will get new deals

 

[MrBrightside]

Anyone suggesting they'll punt 2024 and make roster decisions based upon competing in 2025 has not paid attention to how this organization works.

 

[WickedWrister]

I agree its early but at the same time, you can look at the pending FA list for the end of this season and make some guesses.

Right now the major pending free agents are Heyward, Johnson, Robinson, Daniels, Peterson, Herbig, Harris, Freiermuth.

Heyward, Robinson, and Peterson make up about 40m of that cap room. They won't be occupying much of it if any in 2025. New contacts for Harris and Muth probably won't touch more than a third of that in 2025 - and I can't think who else on that list is staying with the Steelers on a significant pay increase. Even if you assume the Steelers are about to readjust some of those totals, that's still going to make a decent chunk of change that's probably going to go a CFA without any of those three counting.

Also there's 10m of dead cap this coming season. That's falling in 2025 unless they do a lot of stupid mistakes they have to undo this season.

Re: Cam I fully expect them to restructure that deal and push some money into the future.

There's just too many different variables to consider to say definitively one way or the other what our comp formula looks like in 12 months. How many of those 8 you mentioned qualify, who we sign in the 2024 offseason, what term we give them. Historically we haven't gone after the bigger names in FA either. I think the threshold for CFA is if they're among the highest 35% paid at their position? Plus the playing time and awards history. We're middle of the pack in terms of cap space for 2025.

The biggest variable in terms of cap space is what we do at QB after this year.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Yeah I know its a tragedy that TJ Watt hasn't won a playoff game either. Thought Cam was the only guy with a playoff W (1-7 record yikes) but then remembered Boswell existed.

Yep. Tomlin wasted another HOF career with Watt.

Just trying to limit the excuses for kp. If you would rather have kp try n win with Gp boyd Ca3 unknown draft pick go for it

If KP’s success is dependent on a diva WR that owns two of the most historically embarrassing records among his peers, then he’s clearly not their guy.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yep. Tomlin wasted another HOF career with Watt.



If KP’s success is dependent on a diva WR that owns two of the most historically embarrassing records among his peers, then he’s clearly not their guy.

Kp succes comes from his wr elevating him he isn’t elevating them like ben did

 

[Peat]

Re: Cam I fully expect them to restructure that deal and push some money into the future.

There's just too many different variables to consider to say definitively one way or the other what our comp formula looks like in 12 months. How many of those 8 you mentioned qualify, who we sign in the 2024 offseason, what term we give them. Historically we haven't gone after the bigger names in FA either. I think the threshold for CFA is if they're among the highest 35% paid at their position? Plus the playing time and awards history. We're middle of the pack in terms of cap space for 2025.

The biggest variable in terms of cap space is what we do at QB after this year.

You can't categorically say but you can make bets. This is not the set up of a team that's going to be quiet in FA in 2024's offseason or losing a lot of CFAs. There's only so much the Steelers can do this offseason about that.

The Steelers mightn't historically be a team that went big in FA but that's because historically they were a great drafting and development team. That has not been the case recently. They don't have a host of home grown talent clamouring for deals, here or elsewhere.

And yes, the biggest variable is the QB. But right now the outcome list looks like this, right?

1) Pickett earns a stay of execution without earning a big money deal - status quo on who the Steelers can bring in

2) Pickett earns a big money deal and the Steelers need to be careful about long term commitments - maybe changes how much money the team lays down in FA but at the same time, you're looking to be all in on that one last cheap season

3) Pickett is done and they draft a new QB, restarting the cheap QB period that encourages high spending

4) Pickett is done and they sign a new starting QB in FA, which presumably puts a dent in the compensatory formula

5) Pickett is done and they trade for a new starting QB, cutting down on available money without affecting compensatory FAs

I'd suggest that 1, 3, and 4 are the most likely. Which puts a dent in getting compensatory picks.

There's probably things I'm missing, and I know things will change... but this iteration of the Steelers really shouldn't be expecting too many compensatory picks for a few years. I don't think DJ's value after another year of this probable offence helps that much.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Kp succes comes from his wr elevating him he isn’t elevating them like ben did

Dude who has 86 catches and couldn’t get in the end zone even once is elevating his QB?

Get real.

KP either turns into a guy who can make the most out of the guys around him, or he’s not worth keeping around.

DJ is in no way, shape or form some lynchpin that will determine KP’s success.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Dude who has 86 catches and couldn’t get in the end zone even once is elevating his QB?

Get real.

KP either turns into a guy who can make the most out of the guys around him, or he’s not worth keeping around.

DJ is in no way, shape or form some lynchpin that will determine KP’s success.

The only wr who actually get separation and can actually run every route and is widely considered a top 5 route runner in the league yeah he wouldn’t help DJ at all

 

[WickedWrister]

You can't categorically say but you can make bets. This is not the set up of a team that's going to be quiet in FA in 2024's offseason or losing a lot of CFAs. There's only so much the Steelers can do this offseason about that.

The Steelers mightn't historically be a team that went big in FA but that's because historically they were a great drafting and development team. That has not been the case recently. They don't have a host of home grown talent clamouring for deals, here or elsewhere.

We're not getting any this year, but next year could still in play. I'm just going to agree to disagree because I would call our cap situation "average", neither good nor bad. Literally 16th out of 32 teams in 2025 cap space.

I would expect us to start negotiating another extension with TJ next offseason too.

 

[Peat]

These are DJ's stats from games where Pickett started and finished

GP17 T133 R69* Y795 TD1 Y/R11.52 CP%51% Y/G46.7

These numbers are brutal.

I am emphatically not saying this is on DJ. But it's been a disaster. Those numbers absolutely do not reflect how can good they can be together but at the same time, the floor is brutal.

I think it's a kinda ballsy gamble for the Steelers to enter the season in a situation where they're expected to be working together every game. It would take a massive jump to justify not making a move.

I didn't realise their history together was so bad tbh.

*Nice

We're not getting any this year, but next year could still in play. I'm just going to agree to disagree because I would call our cap situation "average", neither good nor bad. Literally 16th out of 32 teams in 2025 cap space.

I would expect us to start negotiating another extension with TJ next offseason too.

It's not that they have a ton of cap space, it's that they have a ton of cap space vs the number of internal guys who can expect pay rises. I wouldn't be surprised if a TJ extension reduced his cap hit that season too.

 

[JTG]

I think a team will pay for DJ. If his stats are what many have said they were in terms of getting open and route running, some team is going to see the value in trading for him v. drafting an unknown.

To me, KC would be silly not to trade for him.

 

[MrBrightside]

These are DJ's stats from games where Pickett started and finished

GP17 T133 R69* Y795 TD1 Y/R11.52 CP%51% Y/G46.7

These numbers are brutal.

I am emphatically not saying this is on DJ. But it's been a disaster. Those numbers absolutely do not reflect how can good they can be together but at the same time, the floor is brutal.

I think it's a kinda ballsy gamble for the Steelers to enter the season in a situation where they're expected to be working together every game. It would take a massive jump to justify not making a move.

I didn't realise their history together was so bad tbh.

Given DJ's numbers with Ben and Mason at QB, the easy and rational explanation here is that Pickett is the issue, not Johnon.

 

[WickedWrister]

I think a team will pay for DJ. If his stats are what many have said they were in terms of getting open and route running, some team is going to see the value in trading for him v. drafting an unknown.

To me, KC would be silly not to trade for him.

I think if they got a 3rd round pick for him, he'd probably be gone.

Day 3 pick? More value in keeping him.

The fact that he's not cheap and only 1 year of control hurts his market.

 

[JTG]

I think if they got a 3rd round pick for him, he'd probably be gone.

Day 3 pick? More value in keeping him.

The fact that he's not cheap and only 1 year of control hurts his market.

If they can only get a 3rd rounder they are better off letting him play out his contract and get the comp pick. The pick has to be more than a 3 to really make it worth the Steelers while.

 

[WickedWrister]

If they can only get a 3rd rounder they are better off letting him play out his contract and get the comp pick. The pick has to be more than a 3 to really make it worth the Steelers while.

I was trying to find comparable trades for WR's in recent years and this article mentions the Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks deals.

• 2023 Dallas Cowboys acquired Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks in exchange for a 2023 fifth-round pick, and a 2024 sixth-round pick.
• 2022 Cleveland Browns acquired Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper and a 2022 sixth-round pick in exchange for a 2022 fifth-round pick and a 2022 sixth-round pick.

Yeah, no thanks if thats the return.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

The only wr who actually get separation and can actually run every route and is widely considered a top 5 route runner in the league yeah he wouldn’t help DJ at all

DJ “runs the best routes” is the new “Tomlin has never had a losing season”.

KP and DJ have zero chemistry.

He’s not helping him. He’s not getting a third long term contract.

He’s a diva that will cause more problems next season.

Time to find someone else. Someone that can actually break 100 yards in a game.

 

[Rossi Rat]

Tim nails it, yet again.

https://x.com/steelersdepot/status/1765702333965758656?s=46&t=fPqjFuG2GhqaQuPKHlWV6Q

 

[JTG]

I was trying to find comparable trades for WR's in recent years and this article mentions the Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks deals.



Yeah, no thanks if thats the return.

It's just not worth it if it is. I think he's worth a 2nd round pick. I think we will be able to squeeze that out. Anything less than that, they should prepare this free agency for his departure, and then let him walk and probably get a 3rd round pick for him.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

DJ “runs the best routes” is the new “Tomlin has never had a losing season”.

KP and DJ have zero chemistry.

He’s not helping him. He’s not getting a third long term contract.

He’s a diva that will cause more problems next season.

Time to find someone else. Someone that can actually break 100 yards in a game.

Kp has no chemistry whatsoever with anyone that is why they want Mason back. I want a qb that can throw 2 in a game and maybe eclipse 300 yards.
What chemistry does he have with GP they barely connect on the back shoulder throws or does KP hit him in stride like mason did against Cincinnati. Mason made throws that Kp can’t make to both wrs. The post to ca3 that KP still struggles with is a breeze with Mason

 

[JTG]

I could see the front office really liking Graham Barton. He's a 5 position offensive lineman. His combine was underwhelming. Could be a really great value player.