Toggle sidebar

OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

  • Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Status
Not open for further replies.
MrBrightside said:
So basically you’d have to sign someone at $10m or less and get equivalent production to break even, an unlikely proposition. You’d thus really need the trade asset to be significant enough to compensate.
Click to expand...

What I'm looking to do is

1) Give one extra target a game to Pickens. That target is conservatively break even.
2) Give one extra target a game to Freiermuth. That target is ambitiously break even. Put them together and it's about break even.
3) Sign a 10m WR and give them the 4.69 targets Johnson had. That's probably 3 catches a game. Let's say you get a Boyd and he gets the 10 yards per reception he got last season. You lost 12 yards a game. This is vastly simplifying matters as usage will change.

It's also vastly simplifying matters because does this replace DJ's 5 TDs? Does this replace Johnson being the most likely guy on the team to catch a first down? Does Pickens have enough space without DJ?

But then we also got to consider that if you get a pick and use it on a WR, that guy can get Robinson's 49 targets that resulted in no touchdowns, 9 1sts downs, 280 yards and all that other bad stuff. Every 2nd round WR beat that by nearly 100 yards last year. Only 1 3rd round WR did worse, and 1 3rd round WR was better but not by a huge amount, and the other 4 were way beyond.

Beyond that and the odds they'd significantly replace Robinson are low, but if you get a 2nd/3rd, then there's a solid chance that overall, the situation would be equal.

I accept there's a decent chance you're worse. There is also a decent chance you're a lot better. Most of the time, you're roughly the same, although hopefully you'd never be able to prove that as Smith's scheme is touch wood a whole lot better.

Plus of course the season after you're in a way better state. And for a good while.


TLDR - a deeper WR room and a team that relies more on Pickens and Muth than it did last season without going crazy about it can probably look to be in the same space.
 
Peat said:
What I'm looking to do is

1) Give one extra target a game to Pickens. That target is conservatively break even.
2) Give one extra target a game to Freiermuth. That target is ambitiously break even. Put them together and it's about break even.
3) Sign a 10m WR and give them the 4.69 targets Johnson had. That's probably 3 catches a game. Let's say you get a Boyd and he gets the 10 yards per reception he got last season. You lost 12 yards a game. This is vastly simplifying matters as usage will change.

It's also vastly simplifying matters because does this replace DJ's 5 TDs? Does this replace Johnson being the most likely guy on the team to catch a first down? Does Pickens have enough space without DJ?

But then we also got to consider that if you get a pick and use it on a WR, that guy can get Robinson's 49 targets that resulted in no touchdowns, 9 1sts downs, 280 yards and all that other bad stuff. Every 2nd round WR beat that by nearly 100 yards last year. Only 1 3rd round WR did worse, and 1 3rd round WR was better but not by a huge amount, and the other 4 were way beyond.

Beyond that and the odds they'd significantly replace Robinson are low, but if you get a 2nd/3rd, then there's a solid chance that overall, the situation would be equal.

I accept there's a decent chance you're worse. There is also a decent chance you're a lot better. Most of the time, you're roughly the same, although hopefully you'd never be able to prove that as Smith's scheme is touch wood a whole lot better.

Plus of course the season after you're in a way better state. And for a good while.


TLDR - a deeper WR room and a team that relies more on Pickens and Muth than it did last season without going crazy about it can probably look to be in the same space.
Click to expand...
Sure minus the double coverage GP will get without DJ and hopefully muth stays healthy. In 22 DJ was targeted almost 150 in the season muth 98 and Gp 87 there was enough attempt for all 3 to get 100 targets
 
bigdaddyk88 said:
Sure minus the double coverage GP will get without DJ and hopefully muth stays healthy. In 22 DJ was targeted almost 150 in the season muth 98 and Gp 87 there was enough attempt for all 3 to get 100 targets
Click to expand...

The risk of double coverage is the main risk of it not working as well, yes. Although plenty of offences learn to deal with having an obvious lead target.

But no risk it, no biscuit.

Tbh, part of what I don't get about this is two of the loudest downside arguers on this idea are people who've made it very clear they don't believe in Pickett.

And if you don't believe in PIckett, then why the hell would you care about how next season could go wrong? Because if you don't believe in Pickett, isn't next season dead in the water already? Maybe if you think Rudolph will stay, eventually get the gig, and go on to be the next great Steelers QB... does anyone really believe that?

The core idea is trading Johnson is rolling dice on next season in order to be almost surely stronger the season after.

I'd get people who think Pickett could be the next great Steelers QB as long as the team gives him proper help before its too late objecting to that idea. But for people who don't like Pickett? Whut? Trade DJ, help the next guy. I like Pickett more than most here and I think that's probably the right call if the deal is right for finding help, so why not do it if you don't like him at all?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buddy Bizarre
Peat said:
The risk of double coverage is the main risk of it not working as well, yes. Although plenty of offences learn to deal with having an obvious lead target.

But no risk it, no biscuit.

Tbh, part of what I don't get about this is two of the loudest downside arguers on this idea are people who've made it very clear they don't believe in Pickett.

And if you don't believe in PIckett, then why the hell would you care about how next season could go wrong? Because if you don't believe in Pickett, isn't next season dead in the water already? Maybe if you think Rudolph will stay, eventually get the gig, and go on to be the next great Steelers QB... does anyone really believe that?

The core idea is trading Johnson is rolling dice on next season in order to be almost surely stronger the season after.

I'd get people who think Pickett could be the next great Steelers QB as long as the team gives him proper help before its too late objecting to that idea. But for people who don't like Pickett? Whut? Trade DJ, help the next guy. I like Pickett more than most here and I think that's probably the right call if the deal is right for finding help, so why not do it if you don't like him at all?
Click to expand...
Because this next season is about establishing the other 10 players on offense and rebuilding the defense so that 25 can all be about the quarterback. You can’t just take away options from kp whose entering a make or break season. They have to know without a doubt one way or the other you can’t give him 2 proven pass catchers and say good luck
 
  • Like
Reactions: MrBrightside and Goalie_Bob
Empoleon8771 said:
I think it's a given they're using their 2nd on a center in the draft, even if they have to trade up for it. I'd be surprised if Frazier from WVU wasn't their center for next year.

That pick is as predictable as Porter Jr last year or Pickett the year before.
Click to expand...

- Best available C on the market is Connor Williams. However, he's coming off a blown ACL
- Aaron Brewer from Tennessee might be the next best option, and he has a connection to Arthur Smith.
- Brian Allen may be the only other true starting C hitting the market
 
bigdaddyk88 said:
Because this next season is about establishing the other 10 players on offense and rebuilding the defense so that 25 can all be about the quarterback. You can’t just take away options from kp whose entering a make or break season. They have to know without a doubt one way or the other you can’t give him 2 proven pass catchers and say good luck
Click to expand...
That's exactly the point that I was trying to make over the weekend that led to me being labeled a Pickett hater or some such. They cannot go into 2024 with Pickens, Friermuth, Austin, and draft picks/free agent signings and a new OC and realistically expect the offense to be anything resembling productive. Again, they need to add to the WR room, not subtract.
 
MrBrightside said:
That's exactly the point that I was trying to make over the weekend that led to me being labeled a Pickett hater or some such. They cannot go into 2024 with Pickens, Friermuth, Austin, and draft picks/free agent signings and a new OC and realistically expect the offense to be anything resembling productive. Again, they need to add to the WR room, not subtract.
Click to expand...

Adding in terms of talent or quantity?
 
Another Center I’m keeping my eye on if JPJ and Frazier become too expensive: Sedrick Van Pran-Granger out of Georgia. Comes from a zone scheme and has some inside versatility to move to guard if necessary.

Could get him in the 3rd round.
 
MrBrightside said:
Both. You’re not getting a WR who will be better in 2024 than Johnson unless you pay 18-20M in free agency or use your #1. And if that guy is replacing Johnson you still need another guy as you cannot run it back with Austin and Robinson as 3-4.
Click to expand...

Here's the context though: the new offense will require WR traits that we haven't seen before ie, being a better blocker and being big bodied.

So he's got a few things going against him:

- not fitting the new offense
- apparently not having a good relationship with the presumed starting QB (KP)
- threatening to hold out again for more money
- He's a FA if his current contract holds up so they could lose him for nothing next year

Easy to see why the Steelers would entertain moving on. They've been good at finding WR's so maybe they bring in a FA guy AND draft one with the capital they get from trading DJ. Devil you know and all that, but that's the risk with any manuever. It's a similar risk with cutting Cole, they could theoretically downgrade from his performance.

I also think they cut Robinson since Smith's offense doesn't tend to feature a WR3 that much. Also, while Robinson saw a TON of snaps, he wasn't utilized all that much in terms of handoffs/targets. He was essentially window dressing in Canada's offense. This team needs boundary WR's in a huge way. DJ and Robinson aren't that and will be obsolete.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Peat and pistolpete11
Pickens, Claypool, JuJu, and even DJ himself all stepped into starting roles as rookies and had success even though they were drafted in the 2nd round or later. I don't understand why Pickens + rookie + Boyd or some other FA signing isn't reasonable :dunno:

As @Buddy Bizarre said, Smith's offense doesn't really rely on WR beyond the top 2 much anyway so anything beyond the top 2 or 3 guys is a luxury, not a necessity.

I'm expecting them to use Muth more, but also Washington and Heyward.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Peat
Yeah I still think having depth at WR is more important than trying to extract a tiny bit of value out of an impending FA. Feels like we’d be trying too hard to thread the needle between fielding a competitive team and asset management.

We’d be a GP sprained ankle away from having Calvin Austin (or some rookie WR if we flip DJ) as our WR1. Or Tyler Boyd in this hypothetical scenario. That’s certainly not ideal. DJ is only taking up like 6% of the cap and we aren’t exactly under harsh constraints financially.

I’m also reluctant to declare that DJ isn’t a fit in Arthur Smith’s offense as a guy like Russell Gage functioned as ATL’s WR1 in 2021.

Just draft a replacement this year or next and let DJ walk in free agency.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MrBrightside and ChaosAgent
WickedWrister said:
Yeah I still think having depth at WR is more important than trying to extract a tiny bit of value out of an impending FA. Feels like we’d be trying too hard to thread the needle between fielding a competitive team and asset management.

We’d be a GP sprained ankle away from having Calvin Austin (or some rookie WR if we flip DJ) as our WR1. Or Tyler Boyd in this hypothetical scenario. That’s certainly not ideal. DJ is only taking up like 6% of the cap and we aren’t exactly under harsh constraints financially.

I’m also reluctant to declare that DJ isn’t a fit in Arthur Smith’s offense as a guy like Russell Gage functioned as ATL’s WR1 in 2021.

Just draft a replacement this year or next and let DJ walk in free agency.
Click to expand...
Gage was there before Smith got there, didn't have a particularly good year, and they let him go after his first season with Smith.

The next season, their WR1 was a rookie London (6'4" 213lb).

Last season, it was again London and their next 3 most targeted receivers were TE, RB, and TE. Their second most targeted WR had 30 targets.
 
pistolpete11 said:
Gage was there before Smith got there, didn't have a particularly good year, and they let him go after his first season with Smith.

The next season, their WR1 was a rookie London (6'4" 213lb).

Last season, it was again London and their next 3 most targeted receivers were TE, RB, and TE. Their second most targeted WR had 30 targets.
Click to expand...
Sure, but it doesn’t change the fact he was a leading receiver in an Arthur Smith offense.

We’re going to be in big trouble if Conor Heyward and Darnell Washington are being asked to pick up the slack if DJ is traded lol.

A good OC suits their offense to the talent they have available and while DJ hasn’t exactly lived up to his contract, there’s nobody on this team that can even come close to replicating what he does.

We were one of the worst passing offenses in the league last year and you want to subtract from that? Based on a Mark Madden “disgruntled” rumor?
 
  • Like
Reactions: ChaosAgent
This team has a lot of needs. Everyone in the trade DJ camp essentially argues that he can be replaced with a 2nd round pick or a UFA, but this team has a lot of holes and every premium draft pick or free agency signing takes away from actual pressing needs like CB, C, LT, ILB, S, and DL. You're essentially creating a hole just to fill it for asset management reasons and there's both little chance that the replacement will be as good (at least in 2024) as Johnson and there's an opportunity cost that comes with it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WickedWrister
MrBrightside said:
This team has a lot of needs. Everyone in the trade DJ camp essentially argues that he can be replaced with a 2nd round pick or a UFA, but this team has a lot of holes and every premium draft pick or free agency signing takes away from actual pressing needs like CB, C, LT, ILB, S, and DL. You're essentially creating a hole just to fill it for asset management reasons and there's both little chance that the replacement will be as good (at least in 2024) as Johnson and there's an opportunity cost that comes with it.
Click to expand...
Yeah it would be one thing if we were up against the cap and had to create space.

We already are only one of like 5 teams spending less than $100m on offense this year, while having the most expensive defense in the league.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MrBrightside
People really seem to forget that the last season in which the Steelers had a remotely functional QB, 2021, Johnson had 107/1169/8 despite Ben not being able to throw the ball more than 20 yards in the air. It's funny that the same people who argue that we have to consider the OC and the OL when evaluating Pickett at the same time do not do that when evaluating other players like Johnson. He's hardly perfect and I wouldn't pay him what he'll get after the 2024 season but if you're remotely serious about being serious in 2024 you don't just dump him for a draft choice.
 
MrBrightside said:
People really seem to forget that the last season in which the Steelers had a remotely functional QB, 2021, Johnson had 107/1169/8 despite Ben not being able to throw the ball more than 20 yards in the air. It's funny that the same people who argue that we have to consider the OC and the OL when evaluating Pickett at the same time do not do that when evaluating other players like Johnson. He's hardly perfect and I wouldn't pay him what he'll get after the 2024 season but if you're remotely serious about being serious in 2024 you don't just dump him for a draft choice.
Click to expand...

Johnson's big payday is already behind him, as well. Just based on aging curves I doubt he gets big money into his 30s.

I agree with you. Johnson is extremely gifted at getting open. That is important.
 
ChaosAgent said:
Johnson's big payday is already behind him, as well. Just based on aging curves I doubt he gets big money into his 30s.

I agree with you. Johnson is extremely gifted at getting open. That is important.
Click to expand...
His next deal will be for 18 million aav regardless of where he signs
 
WickedWrister said:
Sure, but it doesn’t change the fact he was a leading receiver in an Arthur Smith offense.

We’re going to be in big trouble if Conor Heyward and Darnell Washington are being asked to pick up the slack if DJ is traded lol.

A good OC suits their offense to the talent they have available and while DJ hasn’t exactly lived up to his contract, there’s nobody on this team that can even come close to replicating what he does.

We were one of the worst passing offenses in the league last year and you want to subtract from that? Based on a Mark Madden “disgruntled” rumor?
Click to expand...
Holy strawman, Batman.

No, you'd be picking up the slack with more targets to Pickens, Muth, the rookie, and a FA signing like Boyd first and foremost. But yes, Washington and Heyward could both see more targets as well.

No, it's not based on Mark Madden, although I don't think you have to stretch your imagination to think it's possible that what he said is true. He's not a good fit for the offense, the offense doesn't rely on WR much anyway, he only has 1 more year left on his contract, he's starting to get older so an extension would not be wise, and he's a good, not great WR to begin with.

No, I don't want to 'subtract' from their WR. I want to transform it into something that fits the offense better.

You can say Smith should tailor his offense to what he has available, and I agree with that, but this is the offseason where they can easily change what's available to him. DJ is simply not good enough to plan an offense around, so he's replaceable.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buddy Bizarre and Peat
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom