Blue Jays Discussion: The official Danny Jackson Appreciation Society

[canucksfan]

 

[Rude Dog]

I will be disappointed with another meh trade deadline. Does this front office + ownership want to win the World Series or not? I get that it takes 2 to tango, and our prospects are not top echelon but still.

Just doesn't feel like this team is even close to winning imo. I am far from a baseball guy, but I still don't understand why they would have traded their top prospect for a guy like Varsho last summer. Not that I don't like him, but not a guy you trade your top prospect for. Bugs even more now that Kirk is having a down year too.

 

[Discoverer]

Just doesn't feel like this team is even close to winning imo. I am far from a baseball guy, but I still don't understand why they would have traded their top prospect for a guy like Varsho last summer. Not that I don't like him, but not a guy you trade your top prospect for. Bugs even more now that Kirk is having a down year too.

At the same time, that top prospect would be in AAA right now because he's been worse than Kirk in pretty much every way (other than his arm). Meanwhile, Gurriel has completely fallen apart over the last two months (down to a 99 wRC+ on the season and 1.0 fWAR to Varsho's 0.8).

It obviously hasn't worked out nearly as well as most Jays fans hoped it would, but I don't see anything about that trade worth regretting at this point.

 

[canucksfan]

Just doesn't feel like this team is even close to winning imo. I am far from a baseball guy, but I still don't understand why they would have traded their top prospect for a guy like Varsho last summer. Not that I don't like him, but not a guy you trade your top prospect for. Bugs even more now that Kirk is having a down year too.

With baseball, anything can happen once a team makes the playoffs. Overall, the Jays have done very well this year and the main concern is hitting with RISP. For the most part, hitting with RISP is mostly due to luck, and if that stat starts to even out their record should improve. There are some other areas of concern such as Manoah and Ryu and more importantly a right-handed bat.

The Jays have 5 fewer wins than the top team in the AL.

 

[canucksfan]

Some prospect moves

 

[Kurtz]

At the same time, that top prospect would be in AAA right now because he's been worse than Kirk in pretty much every way (other than his arm). Meanwhile, Gurriel has completely fallen apart over the last two months (down to a 99 wRC+ on the season and 1.0 fWAR to Varsho's 0.8).

It obviously hasn't worked out nearly as well as most Jays fans hoped it would, but I don't see anything about that trade worth regretting at this point.

The regret is in not getting a better player in the trade for a top 5-10 MLB prospect.

Objectively speaking, it shouldn't matter what Moreno turns into in the end but rather what he was worth at the time of the deal. (off course we know in practice it doesn't work like that).

 

[Discoverer]

With baseball, anything can happen once a team makes the playoffs. Overall, the Jays have done very well this year and the main concern is hitting with RISP. For the most part, hitting with RISP is mostly due to luck, and if that stat starts to even out their record should improve. There are some other areas of concern such as Manoah and Ryu and more importantly a right-handed bat.

The Jays have 5 fewer wins than the top team in the AL.

Tied for 7th overall in baseball. I don't see how anyone could genuinely believe they aren't a contender.

 

[Discoverer]

The regret is in not getting a better player in the trade for a top 5-10 MLB prospect.

Objectively speaking, it shouldn't matter what Moreno turns into in the end but rather what he was worth at the time of the deal. (off course we know in practice it doesn't work like that).

I don't disagree that value at the time is far more important in evaluating a trade than what the players turn into, but that applies to Varsho as well. Four years of control over a 26-year-old who had been worth 7.0 fWAR (6.7 bWAR) in about 1.5 seasons in the league on the back of elite defense and a roughly league average bat seems like pretty solid value for that level of prospect, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[MS]

Tied for 7th overall in baseball. I don't see how anyone could genuinely believe they aren't a contender.

I'll keep saying that this is the weirdest season/weirdest vibe I've ever seen and probably not just for the Jays but for every team I follow in any sport. The team is 7th in MLB and has the best record in the AL over the past 2 months but basically everyone has complained the whole way and seems to think we suck and that it isn't worth investing in this season. It's so strange.

To me they're 7th in MLB in a season where they're due for a massive correction terms of hitting with RISP and when that happens they'll probably absolutely blow up.

 

[metafour]

The regret is in not getting a better player in the trade for a top 5-10 MLB prospect.

Objectively speaking, it shouldn't matter what Moreno turns into in the end but rather what he was worth at the time of the deal. (off course we know in practice it doesn't work like that).

But if you're going to do that, why don't you apply it both ways?

Varsho was a 4.7 fWAR (4.9 bWAR) player last season and was a 2.2 fWAR player in just 95 games the year before that.

You think they should have got better than a ~5 WAR player?

Seems silly to talk up what Moreno was "worth at the time" while conveniently forgetting what Varsho was worth. 5 WAR is an elite player.

Anyway, bad timing for the Jays this season but I bet that Varsho isn't posting ~75 wRC+ hitting moving forward.

 

[Kurtz]

Fair points, @metafour, @Discoverer.

 

[Bjindaho]

I'll keep saying that this is the weirdest season/weirdest vibe I've ever seen and probably not just for the Jays but for every team I follow in any sport. The team is 7th in MLB and has the best record in the AL over the past 2 months but basically everyone has complained the whole way and seems to think we suck and that it isn't worth investing in this season. It's so strange.

To me they're 7th in MLB in a season where they're due for a massive correction terms of hitting with RISP and when that happens they'll probably absolutely blow up.

It's starting to look like tinkering with the pieces brought in some pieces that fit even worse. That being said, having a quality lefty mashing OF would go a long way.

 

[trellaine201]

Goes to show what you get for your money. I would say underachieving up to this point and never able to live up to that team salary. Money isn’t everything.

 

[Bjindaho]

You know who is average or better against lefties, plays the OF and is available?

He'd cost a lot, but I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

[Cor]

Maybe I just value defense, but I’ve quite enjoyed Varsho and Kiermaier.

Hitting wise, I’m more concerned with Vladdy and Springer.

 

[Discoverer]

Goes to show what you get for your money. I would say underachieving up to this point and never able to live up to that team salary. Money isn’t everything.

What team salary are you expecting them to live up to? They have the 7th highest payroll and the 7th best record.

Fun fact: only two of the six teams with higher payrolls are in a playoff spot. Only one (the Dodgers) has a better record than the Jays.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Some prospect moves

Bohrofen is the only one who started today as the DH, got HBP in his 2nd at bat and replaced by Braden Barry for the 3rd at bat. Lets hope it was planned to get them both in there for 2 at bats and not an injury from the HBP

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

Wow. Didn’t realize the return the White Sox got got Lynn and Kelly.

Preseason the 54th overall prospect in AA pitcher Nastrini and reliever in Leasure who strikes out 14 per 9 who hits 98 mph

All for Lance Lynn who has a 6.47 ERA and a -1.2 WAR and Joe Kelly with a 5 ERA and -0.3 WAR.

Talk about robbery. But knowing the Dodgers these guys will turn into studs the moment they put on Dodgers blue.



Seems extremely light on Gravmen.

Matheson or Mitchell brought up the idea that the Jays should go after Tim Anderson for 2B (backup short stop) and Liam Hendriks

Buy low on Anderson who has a $14M option next year but a -1.3 WAR this year.

Can move Espinal and Biggio in deals. And use Merrifield as your LF platoon with Varsho, and Whit still as your back up 2B.

Hendriks has a $15M option next season which becomes guaranteed if he is traded which is probably a nonstarter as it has a $15M buyout too.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[jetsforever]

Pretty excited to see Ryu back on the team finally

 

[jetsforever]

Wonder what the price is for Juan Soto

 

[Discoverer]

Wow. Didn’t realize the return the White Sox got got Lynn and Kelly.

Preseason the 54th overall prospect in AA pitcher Nastrini and reliever in Leasure who strikes out 14 per 9 who hits 98 mph

All for Lance Lynn who has a 6.47 ERA and a -1.2 WAR and Joe Kelly with a 5 ERA and -0.3 WAR.

Talk about robbery. But knowing the Dodgers these guys will turn into studs the moment they put on Dodgers blue.



Seems extremely light on Gravmen.

Matheson or Mitchell brought up the idea that the Jays should go after Tim Anderson for 2B (backup short stop) and Liam Hendriks

Buy low on Anderson who has a $14M option next year but a -1.3 WAR this year.

Can move Espinal and Biggio in deals. And use Merrifield as your LF platoon with Varsho, and Whit still as your back up 2B.

Hendriks has a $15M option next season which becomes guaranteed if he is traded which is probably a nonstarter as it has a $15M buyout too.

Buying low on Anderson and Hendriks would be awesome, especially since a huge part of the deal would be clearing payroll for the White Sox, so it may not be too costly in terms of prospects.

For all of his struggles this year, Anderson still has a 111 wRC+ against lefties.

 

[dredeye]

Pearson needs a change of scenery

I think he’ll be dealt at the deadline