HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[The Great Weal]

I definitely think you can be a contender with Caufield as your best player, he's a stud. But really it doesn't matter because it's a team game it's not about whether Caufield/Suzuki/Guhle are big enough stars to carry a team, it's about how many others can get to a similar enough level. As an example it doesn't matter if Dach doesn't surpasses Suzuzki or Reinbacher/Hutson surpass Guhle, what matters is that they get to a high enough level that it's no longer a group of 3 guys but a group of 5+ guys.

Who could Caufield compete with right now with the top forward of all the Stanley Cup contenders? Having the big stars is a necessity for winning a cup. When's the last time a team won the cup without at least one top 10 forward/dman/goalie in the league?

 

[jaffy27]

Might want to re-think that one.

So you think we still a bottom 5 team?

I noticed you replied to me after a few losses…it’s always the easiest to make a point when things trend in yiur favour, guess it’s my turn now after 2 wins lol

(mind you it was purely coincidental as I haven’t checked my replies in about a week)

I think it’s pretty evident that when you watch this team play, there is no way they finish bottom 5 unless we get rattled with injuries.

8 to 11 is where I believe we will finish.

 

[ReHabs]

I definitely think you can be a contender with Caufield as your best player, he's a stud. But really it doesn't matter because it's a team game it's not about whether Caufield/Suzuki/Guhle are big enough stars to carry a team, it's about how many others can get to a similar enough level. As an example it doesn't matter if Dach doesn't surpasses Suzuzki or Reinbacher/Hutson surpass Guhle, what matters is that they get to a high enough level that it's no longer a group of 3 guys but a group of 5+ guys.

Who could Caufield compete with right now with the top forward of all the Stanley Cup contenders? Having the big stars is a necessity for winning a cup. When's the last time a team won the cup without at least one top 10 forward/dman/goalie in the league?

A quick and dirty analysis I posted somewhere on this messageboard found that last season (2022-2023) the mean, median, and modal NHL team had THREE 0.8ppg (65pts) player on their roster. That's across the league including non-playoff teams. Playoff teams had between three and five 65pts players in addition to sufficiently capable goal prevention (defence + goalie).

I think this threshold of 0.8ppg/65pts-in-82gp is a nice dividing line between impact players and sub-impact players -- so the talk of stars and superstars and fights over their definition can be avoided by looking at a metric such as the above.

My feeling is if the Habs have sufficiently capable goal prevention and three 65pts players they'll be in the playoff hunt... as we are in the playoff hunt right now (Suzuki, Monahan, Caufield). To win series during the playoff is a different thing altogether but to know if we have a playoff-worthy team or are near toward having one I think we don't need to think about stars and superstars and instead think about how many impact players we have on the roster and if it is around 3-4 then we are on the right track.

 

[ReHabs]

It's hard to justify selling and tanking if you're playing well, playing hard, and beating top teams. The consistency needs to be there for sure -- that comes with maturity and experience but I think a goalie needs to win the 1G spot (at least 1G-a) and I feel like that would help a lot it self. Less change, more stability.

I know tankologists don't like what they're seeing -- especially with all the OT points picked up so far -- but this is the reality. It's good to see at least one special youngster (Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, etc.) take the spotlight every night.... better than last year's point burglary from Allen, Belzile, etc.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Same thing happened last year and we finished bottom 5. +2 over ,500 is right at the same tipping point as last year. Same things were said last year. A single 5 game slide and the narrative will revert.

 

[DAChampion]

It's hard to justify selling and tanking if you're playing well, playing hard, and beating top teams. The consistency needs to be there for sure -- that comes with maturity and experience but I think a goalie needs to win the 1G spot (at least 1G-a) and I feel like that would help a lot it self. Less change, more stability.

I know tankologists don't like what they're seeing -- especially with all the OT points picked up so far -- but this is the reality. It's good to see at least one special youngster (Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, etc.) take the spotlight every night.... better than last year's point burglary from Allen, Belzile, etc.

"Point burglary", that's funny.

But "tankologist" should mean one that is a scholar of tanking ... Wouldn't that include tanking skeptics?

I think the term you're looking for is "tankophiles".

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Theres 0 chance you can win a cup with Caufield as your best player im sorry boys, unless we have 3 Norris d men and a great goalie.

That said if we dont finish bottom 5 we still have alot of ammo to look for other means to acquire a great player

 

[ReHabs]

"Point burglary", that's funny.

But "tankologist" should mean one that is a scholar of tanking ... Wouldn't that include tanking skeptics?

I think the term you're looking for is "tankophiles".

Dirty, rotten tankophiles. They should be put on a list.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Theres 0 chance you can win a cup with Caufield as your best player im sorry boys, unless we have 3 Norris d men and a great goalie.

That said if we dont finish bottom 5 we still have alot of ammo to look for other means to acquire a great player

For at least once in my life, I'd like the Habs to draft ONE top 10-15 forward with a high draft pick. Just once in my life I'd like the Habs to draft the unanimous best player in the draft. A Kovalchuk, a Crosby, a Kane, a McKinnon, a Matthews. A Celebrini.

Or sign a superstar. One or the other. At least once. Once. Just one.

Sigh

 

[Gustave]

For at least once in my life, I'd like the Habs to draft ONE top 10-15 forward with a high draft pick. Just once in my life I'd like the Habs to draft the unanimous best player in the draft. A Kovalchuk, a Crosby, a Kane, a McKinnon, a Matthews. A Celebrini.

Or sign a superstar. One or the other. At least once. Once. Just one.

Sigh

I thought this rebuild would yield it, I'm back on the trade or UFA train for that. Last season was "it", but we won games and got points AND... luck wasn't on our side. Winning a lottery is a pre requisite from now on, moving up by trade seems out of the realm of possibility.

Can't believe we have to bank on luck, but it's reality.

 

[NMacrules]

This tank BS is for losers. The habs are playing very well and currently in a wild card spot. This team is not going to get worse, its going to get better.

 

[Gustave]

This tank BS is for losers. The habs are playing very well and currently in a wild card spot. This team is not going to get worse, its going to get better.

They are playing well, they want to win and they have heart. I love that. Our G's are once again giving it their all, minus a few expected eggs. Gutsy bunch we have.

Now, objectively, we only win in OT, our goal differential is in the minuses and losing Dach puts us in a position where another injury to a crucial player leaves us without any depth.

Tank doesn't exist, it's just a way to cope with losses and to find the positives in bad situations. Objectively, you don't want to finish 9th in the conference... so you know, wheels off are a better outcome.

We aren't making the playoffs, fairly sure of that. But the tank doesn't exist.

 

[morhilane]

This tank BS is for losers. The habs are playing very well and currently in a wild card spot. This team is not going to get worse, its going to get better.

Habs should trade some people at the deadline, so the season last stretch might not be super great.

They should probably trade some players before that even. They can't do the entire season with 3 goalies up. They can't sit Xhejak/Barron once Savard is healthy again. Ylonen can't warm the bench all season. etc.

 

[Nedved]

It's painful to say this, but if Guhle and Matheson stay healthy all year, it's unlikely we get a top 10 pick. All we can hope is a smallish forward falls to us, and we pick him up, like buffalo drafting Benson. Or a d man slips to us and there's a run on forwards. It's crazy how much better this team looks like with guhle.

 

[Riggins]

People overreact after both wins and losses. This is a bad team, not worst in the league bad but definitely bottom 10. I just hope we're in position for Catton or Demidov if we don't win the lottery.

 

[montreal]

So you think we still a bottom 5 team?

I noticed you replied to me after a few losses…it’s always the easiest to make a point when things trend in yiur favour, guess it’s my turn now after 2 wins lol

(mind you it was purely coincidental as I haven’t checked my replies in about a week)

I think it’s pretty evident that when you watch this team play, there is no way they finish bottom 5 unless we get rattled with injuries.

8 to 11 is where I believe we will finish.

If you can't win in regulation, you aren't a good team. So yes I think they will be around a bottom 5 team as it's likely to be a lot of teams clumped together since there are a lot of crappy teams. The difference between 5 and 8 is likely to be very little.

This tank BS is for losers. The habs are playing very well and currently in a wild card spot. This team is not going to get worse, its going to get better.

That's the hope but I doubt it's the reality as you can't have like 2 guys scoring your goals. You want to see them take a step up from last year, and you hope that the young players are the ones that take the biggest step. So far with Caufield and Guhle it sounds like they are but after that is still a big question mark imo.

I also don't believe in the goaltending, it's been carrying them from the sounds of it and that I don't expect to last.

 

[ReHabs]

This tank BS is for losers. The habs are playing very well and currently in a wild card spot. This team is not going to get worse, its going to get better.

The team we both root for lacks talent depth. It can steal a game or two but there are so many games that quality will reveal itself before long. Depth and wear-and-tear are tied together. No Dach means we're down a top4 forward. Dvorak, Anderson and Slafkovsky are not producing. Newhook has only replaced Drouin or Hoffman's production. And we don't have Carey Price in the back.

Unless Joshua Roy comes up and doesn't miss a beat and one of Dvorak/Anderson/Slafkovsky starts producing I think we won't have the raw numbers to have a playoff spot in our favour.

I think we shouldn't demand or expect Hughes to dismantle the team while it is competitive... and even if they go on a 5-game skid I don't think we should expect to see any firesale. But if we're bottom-tier in our division by January I think Hughes needs to sell and sell quickly -- Monahan in particular but Savard, Allen, Anderson, and Dvorak should be on the list too.

 

[Gustave]

On the bright side, Habs are still tied for last in the NHL with only two regulation wins.

The losses should start to come.

Our goal differential is very bad, that's "my" indicator".

 

[26Mats]

A handful of useless wins courtesy of unimportant scrubs like RHP, Belzile and Montembeault who all decided to play the best hockey of their life for a few weeks cost us a top 3 pick and a legit shot at Bedard.

Nauseating.

Montembault is still playing well.

We'll see if RHP gets a shot. I think a good one.

Belzile would be nice to jave in the system if we have one more injury at center. I think he could pkay like he did last year.

 

[the valiant effort]

Quick snapshot of last year vs this year after 15GP, which is of course when their pts% peaked last year.

2022-2023

8-6-1 .567 T-13th w/ DET, FLA

Reg. Wins	5	T-21st w/ many teams
Goal Diff.	-1	T-18th w/ LAK
PP%	16.7%	28th
PK%	80.8%	12th
xGF%	46.49%	24th
HDCF%	42.65%	27th

2023-2024

7-6-2 .533 T-19th with TBL

Reg. Wins	2	T-31st w/ SJS
Goal Diff.	-9	25th
PP%	23.0%	10th
PK%	76.2%	21st
xGF%	48.93%	17th
HDCF%	52.45%	12th

 

[morhilane]

Quick snapshot of last year vs this year after 15GP, which is of course when their pts% peaked last year.

2022-2023

8-6-1 .567 T-13th w/ DET, FLA

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Reg. Wins[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]T-21st w/ many teams[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goal Diff.[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD]T-18th w/ LAK[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PP%[/TD]
[TD]16.7%[/TD]
[TD]28th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PK%[/TD]
[TD]80.8%[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]46.49%[/TD]
[TD]24th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]42.65%[/TD]
[TD]27th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

2023-2024

7-6-2 .533 T-19th with TBL

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Reg. Wins[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]T-31st w/ SJS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goal Diff.[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]25th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PP%[/TD]
[TD]23.0%[/TD]
[TD]10th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PK%[/TD]
[TD]76.2%[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]48.93%[/TD]
[TD]17th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]52.45%[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Habs are doing everything better except for the PK/dzone this year.

Also, Matheson missed all of October and a part of November last season.

 

[salbutera]

Quick snapshot of last year vs this year after 15GP, which is of course when their pts% peaked last year.

2022-2023

8-6-1 .567 T-13th w/ DET, FLA

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Reg. Wins[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]T-21st w/ many teams[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goal Diff.[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD]T-18th w/ LAK[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PP%[/TD]
[TD]16.7%[/TD]
[TD]28th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PK%[/TD]
[TD]80.8%[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]46.49%[/TD]
[TD]24th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]42.65%[/TD]
[TD]27th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

2023-2024

7-6-2 .533 T-19th with TBL

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Reg. Wins[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]T-31st w/ SJS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goal Diff.[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]25th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PP%[/TD]
[TD]23.0%[/TD]
[TD]10th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PK%[/TD]
[TD]76.2%[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]48.93%[/TD]
[TD]17th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]52.45%[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Also need to balance above w schedule difficulty, iirc last season was a fairly weak schedule vs this season through Oct & Nov - and there was agreement next 7-10 GP we’re going to be rough coming back from road trip.

So far they’re 2-2 having faced TBay, Det, Bos & Van

 

[The Real Timo]

Anyone else thinks we should try Yoel at center instead of Evans?

 

[salbutera]

Habs are doing everything better except for the PK/dzone this year.

Also, Matheson missed all of October and a part of November last season.

broken record…. Habs record with / without Savard last season was stark contrast.

Similar situation seems to be unfolding, granted very small sample set 3-1-1 w Savard & 4-5-1 without so far

 

[Maitz]

I just had a dream that we picked 8th and drafted a dman