HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[the valiant effort]

Also need to balance above w schedule difficulty, iirc last season was a fairly weak schedule vs this season through Oct & Nov - and there was agreement next 7-10 GP we’re going to be rough coming back from road trip.

So far they’re 2-2 having faced TBay, Det, Bos & Van

For sure. Hockey Reference has them at 10th strongest schedule so far, and 22nd overall in their standard rating system, which I think is probably a pretty good estimate of where they’ll finish. Barring health, of course

 

[The Great Weal]

Habs are tied with the Sharks for the fewest regulation wins. I do believe we will inevitably be in the bottom 10 by the end of the year.

 

[salbutera]

Habs are tied with the Sharks for the fewest regulation wins. I do believe we will inevitably be in the bottom 10 by the end of the year.

Believe or hope?

As schedule becomes more favorable, I expect Habs will even it out - assuming no return to historic games lost due to injuries

 

[The Great Weal]

Believe or hope?

Believe. This team has 3 forwards producing at a top 6 rate.

 

[bsl]

That's like saying when Caufield had his shoulder injury and surgery, hes not guaranteed to be able to score well again. Out of the two positions, yours is clearly the hyperbolic one

I don’t mean to be too dramatic about dach or negative. But you need to plan for worst case. Assume dach is done sadly and deal with it. If he recovers well then that is a massive bonus and I would love that

 

[Michelangelo]

Habs have been winning more of their close games recently. I have faith that we will regress and end up with a rightfully deserved top 5 pick

 

[Captain Mountain]

Believe or hope?

As schedule becomes more favorable, I expect Habs will even it out - assuming no return to historic games lost due to injuries

Why do you think the schedule will become more favourable? Most estimates I've seen using different methodology (win %, modelling, etc.) is that Montreal's remaining SoS is average to difficult.

For sure. Hockey Reference has them at 10th strongest schedule so far, and 22nd overall in their standard rating system, which I think is probably a pretty good estimate of where they’ll finish. Barring health, of course

Really? I've generally been pretty skeptical of Hockey Reference's projections. Most models have Montreal finishing anywhere from 3rd to 6th last in the NHL.

Habs have been winning more of their close games recently. I have faith that we will regress and end up with a rightfully deserved top 5 pick

Its not so much just that they've winning more of their close games, its that they pick up points in the vast majority of their close games. Which isn't something to rely on.

 

[Sorinth]

When's the last time a team won the cup without at least one top 10 forward/dman/goalie in the league?

Last year, though Pietrangelo has the potential to be a top-10 D in any given year most years he's outside not, and you can see that with the Norris voting if you don't want to take my word for it.

 

[montreal]

 

[The Great Weal]

Last year, though Pietrangelo has the potential to be a top-10 D in any given year most years he's outside not, and you can see that with the Norris voting if you don't want to take my word for it.

Alex Pietrangelo was most definitely a top 10 dman in the league and he is in that category most years. Not to mention that the trio of Suzuki/Caufield/Dach is not as good as Stone/Eichel/Marchessault. Stone/Eichel aren't healthy enough to be top 10 forwards in the league, but they are PPG players who excel defensively.

 

[Sorinth]

Quick snapshot of last year vs this year after 15GP, which is of course when their pts% peaked last year.

2022-2023

8-6-1 .567 T-13th w/ DET, FLA

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Reg. Wins[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]T-21st w/ many teams[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goal Diff.[/TD]
[TD]-1[/TD]
[TD]T-18th w/ LAK[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PP%[/TD]
[TD]16.7%[/TD]
[TD]28th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PK%[/TD]
[TD]80.8%[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]46.49%[/TD]
[TD]24th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]42.65%[/TD]
[TD]27th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

2023-2024

7-6-2 .533 T-19th with TBL

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Reg. Wins[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]T-31st w/ SJS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goal Diff.[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]25th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PP%[/TD]
[TD]23.0%[/TD]
[TD]10th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PK%[/TD]
[TD]76.2%[/TD]
[TD]21st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]48.93%[/TD]
[TD]17th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]52.45%[/TD]
[TD]12th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

What I find interesting with these numbers is how xGF% and HDCF% compares to the actual GF%
Our GF% was 53.13% (11th) last year in those 15 games and 53.33% (11th) this year. So very similar numbers despite very different underlying numbers. So the regression last year made a lot of sense, the underlying numbers just didn't support our GF% and so we regressed towards the expected. This year we have much better support for our GF% so a regression isn't likely to be anywhere near as bad.

 

[Sorinth]

Alex Pietrangelo was most definitely a top 10 dman in the league and he is in that category most years. Not to mention that the trio of Suzuki/Caufield/Dach is not as good as Stone/Eichel/Marchessault. Stone/Eichel aren't healthy enough to be top 10 forwards in the league, but they are PPG players who excel defensively.

If he's definitely a top-10 Dman then how come he didn't get any Norris votes? Last year not a single vote, the year before a single 5th place vote, the year before that again not a single vote. It was only back in 2019-2020 that he got Norris votes finishing 4th in voting.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If he's definitely a top-10 Dman then how come he didn't get any Norris votes? Last year not a single vote, the year before a single 5th place vote, the year before that again not a single vote. It was only back in 2019-2020 that he got Norris votes finishing 4th in voting.

Norris votes are a joke and made by journos

Pietrangelo was a key #1D for two stanley cups. A lot of people would put him in their top 10.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Norris votes are a joke and made by journos

Pietrangelo was a key #1D for two stanley cups. A lot of people would put him in their top 10.

Norris nowdays = most points. If it was for actually playing defensively Hugues would get no votes

 

[Naslundforever]

Why do you think the schedule will become more favourable? Most estimates I've seen using different methodology (win %, modelling, etc.) is that Montreal's remaining SoS is average to difficult.



Really? I've generally been pretty skeptical of Hockey Reference's projections. Most models have Montreal finishing anywhere from 3rd to 6th last in the NHL.



Its not so much just that they've winning more of their close games, its that they pick up points in the vast majority of their close games. Which isn't something to rely on.

No, but not so long ago they would send 3 defensive players on 3v3 and lose anyway, so I’m enjoying it

 

[Sorinth]

Norris votes are a joke and made by journos

Pietrangelo was a key #1D for two stanley cups. A lot of people would put him in their top 10.

And opinions on a message board aren't a joke?

 

[The Real Timo]

Last year Habs were in almost da playoffs all the way into dec, I think. Then the unravelling began.

 

[The Real Timo]

This is so boring on non-game days nowadays. No juicy rumors no nothing.

Still think Habs should put Yoel at C instead of Evans. Why the hell not?

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I don’t mean to be too dramatic about dach or negative. But you need to plan for worst case. Assume dach is done sadly and deal with it. If he recovers well then that is a massive bonus and I would love that

Who should assume. HuGo or the fans? If it's Hugo you're referring to, isn't it irresponsible to play out their plan assuming dach is done? Wouldn't that lead to potentially unnecessary and maybe damaging moves? Wouldn't it be better to reevaluate after his recovery instead of being rash?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

And opinions on a message board aren't a joke?

But winning cups is?

Funny you avoid that bit.

How many #1 Ds in this league headed a cup winning defense at least twice?

 

[CHfan1]

I don’t mean to be too dramatic about dach or negative. But you need to plan for worst case. Assume dach is done sadly and deal with it. If he recovers well then that is a massive bonus and I would love that

Players come back all the time from a torn ACL, I expect Dach will as well. The bigger issue is missing what was turning out to be a great development year for him where he looked to take a step forward. It will probably take quite a few games to get his timing back but I expect he’ll be at the same level of play by the end of next season.

 

[Sorinth]

But winning cups is?

Funny you avoid that bit.

How many #1 Ds in this league headed a cup winning defense at least twice?

No winning cups has very little bearing on how good an individual player is because it's a team effort. Was Ray Bourque not a #1 D in his prime because he wasn't winning cups with the Bruins?

And if you are going to bring up cups and how important Pietrangelo is to winning them shouldn't that show up at least partially in the Conn Smythe voting? They vote the top-3 candidates, with the Vegas cup win Marchessault won it, Eichel was in second, Hill was in third, there were even votes for Stone and Tkachuk, yet not even a single 3rd place vote for Pietrangelo. With St Louis he did manage to get a few and barely edged out Parayko but was well behind O'Reilly, Binnington, and Rask.

 

[rahad]

We have won multiple game in OT this year. With out those OT win, we will probably in the bottom 5.

 

[Scriptor]

What I find interesting with these numbers is how xGF% and HDCF% compares to the actual GF%
Our GF% was 53.13% (11th) last year in those 15 games and 53.33% (11th) this year. So very similar numbers despite very different underlying numbers. So the regression last year made a lot of sense, the underlying numbers just didn't support our GF% and so we regressed towards the expected. This year we have much better support for our GF% so a regression isn't likely to be anywhere near as bad.

"So the regression last year made a lot of sense..."

Yeah, with Monahan going down and the rest of the skilled players, other than Suzuki, following suit!

If Monahan and Matheson stay healthy, there won't be a comparable regression. Maybe after Monahan is traded, if he is, at the deadline?

I wouldn't be surprised to see Montreal try to extend Monahan if the team is hovering near or above .500 leading up to the deadline.

4 games above .500 at the trade deadline, with 19 games left for the Habs, is on pace for 86 points if Montreal plays just .500 hockey the rest of the way.

The Panthers made the playoffs with 92 points last season. Montreal could be in an improbable, but possible position to stun everyone and Marthe playoffs if they are 4 games above .500 at the trade deadline.

6 points better than .500 in 19 games might do it.

 

[Monsieur Miz]

Gallagher and Monahan are not going to get better as the season progresses. Especially Gallagher who has been surprisingly good. I expect a rough 2nd half.

Matheson plays more than Makar, Hedman, Dahlin, McAvoy... legit superstars and he's already having brain cramps.