HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[An0n]

I don't even understand how why we draft by need when we have needs everywhere, that alone should make us go BPA.

For some people, the Habs not taking their guy means the Habs went for need instead of BPA.

 

[McGees]

Here is a guarantee...The players you rate top 5 now won't be the same order top 5 by the time the draft comes.

 

[The Great Weal]

For some people, the Habs not taking their guy means the Habs went for need instead of BPA.

Our general manager himself said that if Reinbacher wasn't right handed, he wouldn't be rated as highly for them because we needed a right shot dman. That right there tells you that we are drafting by need.

 

[An0n]

Our general manager himself said that if Reinbacher wasn't right handed, he wouldn't be rated as highly for them because we needed a right shot dman. That right there tells you that we are drafting by need.

No, it does not tell me that at all.

What it tells me is that being right handed increased his value as a prospect.

Also, you're naive if you think the position a player plays has no bearing on his overall value to a team. BPA is not black and white, it's much more nuanced than that.

 

[morhilane]

Our general manager himself said that if Reinbacher wasn't right handed, he wouldn't be rated as highly for them because we needed a right shot dman. That right there tells you that we are drafting by need.

What they said can as much mean that had Reinbacher been a LHD, they would have skipped him even if he was their BPA.

He was going to be taken at either #5 or #6 no matter what. If it wasn't the Habs, it was Arizona or the Preds after the Habs traded down.

 

[WeThreeKings]

This year if we want a good forward it's pretty much top 3 or bust. After that's there's Catton and a bunch of dmen.

Demidov won't go 3.
Lindstrom Helenius MBN and Ritchie are making stronger cases all the time.

Expect the top 5 of the draft to only be 2 forwards, 3 if the Habs are top 5

 

[JRichard]

Last year, Habs started to plummet in December, we aren't there yet...


Sharks, Flames and Blackhawks are going to finish lower.
If the Oilers/Sens don't change course, they will too.

Habs should really finish 5-10, unless they start to play even worst than now...which is kind hard to imagine. Like Matheson looking even worst than he does already?

They were 6-3 in Feb.

 

[morhilane]

Demidov won't go 3.
Lindstrom Helenius MBN and Ritchie are making stronger cases all the time.

Expect the top 5 of the draft to only be 2 forwards, 3 if the Habs are top 5

A good forward will "drop" where the Habs will pick, but I'm personally scared they will pick another D anyway. Just how the Habs rolls, weirdly.

They were 6-3 in Feb.

That's after all the AHLers joined, it fell back in March.

 

[WeThreeKings]

A good forward will "drop" where the Habs will pick, but I'm personally scared they will pick another D anyway. Just how the Habs rolls, weirdly.


That's after all the AHLers joined, it fell back in March.

I think that fear is pretty baseless, to be honest.

All the noise from people in the know, they know they need more offensive talent. They'll take some this year, they didn't want to get involved with Michkov and Leonard while good probably doesn't fit high end skill.

They'll get their forward this year. I'm confident.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

although a broken clock is right twice a day so I guess if you get a shit ton of picks you are bound to hit on a couple perhaps.

This, but also, if you're gonna draft high in repetition, you're more likely to hit strong drafts.

Rebuilds are not an easy thing. You need to hit often and be lucky enough to hit in the right years and competent enough to follow through with the prospects. Any problems with any of those 3 aspects will just extend the rebuild from 5 years to 8, 10 or more years.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I think that fear is pretty baseless, to be honest.

All the noise from people in the know, they know they need more offensive talent. They'll take some this year, they didn't want to get involved with Michkov and Leonard while good probably doesn't fit high end skill.

They'll get their forward this year. I'm confident.

I think we agree, the Habs are definitely picking a forward this year.

Extreme scenario would be the Habs dropping out of the top-10 and some goalie having a monster season.

We probably have to be in that top-5 or 6 spot to have a forward coincide with BPA

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think we agree, the Habs are definitely picking a forward this year.

Extreme scenario would be the Habs dropping out of the top-10 and some goalie having a monster season.

We probably have to be in that top-5 or 6 spot to have a forward coincide with BPA

I will say that I wouldn't be all that mad if they got Parekh.

His offensive skills are insane haha.

But I think as long as they are picking top 7 they'll get Demidov or Catton.

Celebrini
Eiserman
Dickinson
Silayev
Levshunov

That is likely the order top 5, just in a different order. Then Demidov Catton should go depending on how Jiricek and Parekh are considering at years end.

 

[WeThreeKings]

This is honestly the type of year he should have had last year. This is more common for a 19 year old to do (even non-first rounders). Rehkopf is scoring at an even higher pace over a larger sample size as a younger player drafted a year later in the middle of the second for example. He also joined a team that already had the three leading scorers of the entire OHL. A guy in his D+2 doing this in the OHL is a relatively common occurrence. He's certainly proving he's still a prospect as anything less would have been a total bust, but remember Pinelli put up 90 last year and is now struggling heavily in the AHL.

Still good to see progress though. Would be nice if some of our other prospects would turn their seasons around because we've got a lot of craptacular seasons going on.

Who is having a craptacular season? Outside of Slaf who is in the NHL and still finding his way?

 

[Ezpz]

Who is having a craptacular season? Outside of Slaf who is in the NHL and still finding his way?

Essentially everyone except Roy, Konyshukov, Hutson, Engstrom, Beck when considering context, and the goalies (minus Dobes who is struggling heavily). Even then very few standout seasons going on for Habs prospects, some of them are more treading water than progressing by the leaps and bounds you'd expect from a future NHLer. Lots of guys, mostly not high picks except Kapanen and Tuch albeit, seem to be on pace to not even get signed or do the AHL-deal into potential-ELC thing instead of guaranteed signing.

Biondi, Smith, Tuch, Kapanen, Kostenko, Sobolev, Pitlick, Vrbetic likely don't get signed this year. Though I suspect Kapanen and Tuch get signed because of the complete lack of forward prospects coming in two years from now unless we draft some overagers this year. Mesar and Beck are the only ones coming in next year currently. Roy and Heinemen should be expected to graduate so there is room for depth forwards in Laval.

Kidney, Mysak and Struble are all having disappointing years relative to where they were drafted. Granted Struble had already fallen off as a prospect so his decent start in Laval is more reclaiming value than losing it at this point.

A bunch of super hyped guys are having rough starts in Laval in Mailloux (who is exactly as advertised, special offensively and trainwreck defensively), Farrell, and Heinemen (due to injury obviously). Guys who had good camps or development last year seem to have taken steps back again like Norlinder and Trudeau.

Reinbacher got injured and the new coach doesn't seem to trust him as much as last year's coach did.

Eriksson has become the next Mike Cichy prospect in record time. Not that we should have expectations of 5th rounders and beyond.

Obviously RHP and Ylonen aren't quite adapting to the NHL as well as they did last year. Definitely not a great October and November for the organization. Not worth panicking yet but there are a lot of bad seasons going on.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Essentially everyone except Roy, Konyshukov, Hutson, Engstrom, Beck when considering context, and the goalies (minus Dobes who is struggling heavily). Even then very few standout seasons going on for Habs prospects, some of them are more treading water than progressing by the leaps and bounds you'd expect from a future NHLer. Lots of guys, mostly not high picks except Kapanen and Tuch albeit, seem to be on pace to not even get signed or do the AHL-deal into potential-ELC thing instead of guaranteed signing.

Biondi, Smith, Tuch, Kapanen, Kostenko, Sobolev, Pitlick, Vrbetic likely don't get signed this year. Though I suspect Kapanen and Tuch get signed because of the complete lack of forward prospects coming in two years from now unless we draft some overagers this year. Mesar and Beck are the only ones coming in next year currently. Roy and Heinemen should be expected to graduate so there is room for depth forwards in Laval.

Kidney, Mysak and Struble are all having disappointing years relative to where they were drafted. Granted Struble had already fallen off as a prospect so his decent start in Laval is more reclaiming value than losing it at this point.

A bunch of super hyped guys are having rough starts in Laval in Mailloux (who is exactly as advertised, special offensively and trainwreck defensively), Farrell, and Heinemen (due to injury obviously). Guys who had good camps or development last year seem to have taken steps back again like Norlinder and Trudeau.

Reinbacher got injured and the new coach doesn't seem to trust him as much as last year's coach did.

Eriksson has become the next Mike Cichy prospect in record time. Not that we should have expectations of 5th rounders and beyond.

Obviously RHP and Ylonen aren't quite adapting to the NHL as well as they did last year. Definitely not a great October and November for the organization. Not worth panicking yet but there are a lot of bad seasons going on.

Tuch will absolutely get signed. He's producing at an acceptable level for the type of player he's destined to become.

Kapanen is up in the air but I wouldn't say he's having a craptacular season, he's still a very young player playing in a men's league.

The rest are 4th rounders and beyond in that list, so I wouldn't say craptacular other than about what you'd expect from the average prospect.

Kidney is finding his way in the AHL, the expectations might just be a little bit too high for him in year 1 in the AHL.

Mysak is having the type of season you'd expect from someone Houle doesn't like and has undercut at every turn. That's more of a reflection on Houle than Mysak.

Struble has been one of the best defenseman in Laval, so just because the production isn't high doesn't mean he's playing bad. He's not a point producing defenseman.

Heineman was hurt early so really he gets an incomplete.
Farrell's debut AHL season has been perfectly acceptable.
Mailloux has a lot of hockey to play to get on track, his offense is playing at the AHL level and we knew the defense would take plenty of time.

Trudeau and Norlinder are certainly struggling to start the year but we almost had Norlinder make the team out of the camp. Trudeau also had an impressive camp. It's likely confidence right now for both kids.

Reinbacher was hurt but there's nothing to indicate his new coach doesn't trust him as much, he's coming back off an injury and still getting plenty of ice time.

I would wager you look at what other 6th rounders are doing from last years draft because not many are playing in the SHL and getting a regular shift. Eriksson is an intriguing pick not a Mike Cichy pick at all. Cichy couldn't play in the SHL at the height of his career. Eriksson is already doing that.

I think the expectations are higher than what is to be reasonably expected. I get it's frustrating to watch a losing team in the NHL and we want every pick to hit and everyone to blow the doors down at a higher than expected rate, but that's just not the reality of things.

If anything we should be pretty excited that we have Guhle, Barron, Harris and Xhekaj all playing in the NHL at the ages they are and providing the impact they are providing. We should be excited about the strides that Caufield is taking again this year.

We should be excited that Jared Davidson had the camp that he had.
We should be excited that Joshua Roy at 20 is putting up points near the top of the league on a young team.
That Farrell is pacing for 40-50 points in his AHL rookie season while being one of their few forwards capable of playing defensively.
That Mailloux's offense has shown it can play at the AHL level and he's not struggling at that level either.

We should be excited that Quentin Miller is putting himself on the WJC radar by being one of the best goalies in the Q on one of the worst teams.
We should be excited that Owen Beck has rediscovered his offensive touch while continuing to be the dominant two-way center in the CHL.
That Cedrick Guindon is producing near the top of the OHL.
That Mesar is on fire and 2 PPG since his demotion to the OHL.

That Jacob Fowler is the best goalie in college hockey.
That Lane Hutson is the best player in college hockey.
That Tuch is finding a scoring touch to go with his physical play.

That Konyushkov is authoring one of the best u23 defenseman seasons in KHL history.
That Volokhin is the best goalie in the MHL.

That Engstrom is a top pairing defenseman in the SHL.
That Eriksson is playing SHL minutes as a D1 6th round pick.

That's a lot of really good things, a lot of really good things.

 

[Ezpz]

Tuch will absolutely get signed. He's producing at an acceptable level for the type of player he's destined to become.

Kapanen is up in the air but I wouldn't say he's having a craptacular season, he's still a very young player playing in a men's league.

The rest are 4th rounders and beyond in that list, so I wouldn't say craptacular other than about what you'd expect from the average prospect.

Kidney is finding his way in the AHL, the expectations might just be a little bit too high for him in year 1 in the AHL.

Mysak is having the type of season you'd expect from someone Houle doesn't like and has undercut at every turn. That's more of a reflection on Houle than Mysak.

Struble has been one of the best defenseman in Laval, so just because the production isn't high doesn't mean he's playing bad. He's not a point producing defenseman.

Heineman was hurt early so really he gets an incomplete.
Farrell's debut AHL season has been perfectly acceptable.
Mailloux has a lot of hockey to play to get on track, his offense is playing at the AHL level and we knew the defense would take plenty of time.

Trudeau and Norlinder are certainly struggling to start the year but we almost had Norlinder make the team out of the camp. Trudeau also had an impressive camp. It's likely confidence right now for both kids.

Reinbacher was hurt but there's nothing to indicate his new coach doesn't trust him as much, he's coming back off an injury and still getting plenty of ice time.

I would wager you look at what other 6th rounders are doing from last years draft because not many are playing in the SHL and getting a regular shift. Eriksson is an intriguing pick not a Mike Cichy pick at all. Cichy couldn't play in the SHL at the height of his career. Eriksson is already doing that.

I think the expectations are higher than what is to be reasonably expected. I get it's frustrating to watch a losing team in the NHL and we want every pick to hit and everyone to blow the doors down at a higher than expected rate, but that's just not the reality of things.

If anything we should be pretty excited that we have Guhle, Barron, Harris and Xhekaj all playing in the NHL at the ages they are and providing the impact they are providing. We should be excited about the strides that Caufield is taking again this year.

We should be excited that Jared Davidson had the camp that he had.
We should be excited that Joshua Roy at 20 is putting up points near the top of the league on a young team.
That Farrell is pacing for 40-50 points in his AHL rookie season while being one of their few forwards capable of playing defensively.
That Mailloux's offense has shown it can play at the AHL level and he's not struggling at that level either.

We should be excited that Quentin Miller is putting himself on the WJC radar by being one of the best goalies in the Q on one of the worst teams.
We should be excited that Owen Beck has rediscovered his offensive touch while continuing to be the dominant two-way center in the CHL.
That Cedrick Guindon is producing near the top of the OHL.
That Mesar is on fire and 2 PPG since his demotion to the OHL.

That Jacob Fowler is the best goalie in college hockey.
That Lane Hutson is the best player in college hockey.
That Tuch is finding a scoring touch to go with his physical play.

That Konyushkov is authoring one of the best u23 defenseman seasons in KHL history.
That Volokhin is the best goalie in the MHL.

That Engstrom is a top pairing defenseman in the SHL.
That Eriksson is playing SHL minutes as a D1 6th round pick.

That's a lot of really good things, a lot of really good things.

I'll still wait and see in January how things are progressing. Tuch may get signed but he'd still be producing at his 8-point pace over the entire season if he weren't playing with this years upcoming first overall (who hopefully we get somehow).

I'm not seeing anything that screams future non-depth NHLer right now except Fowler and Hutson. I am very split on Konyshukov not only because he's signed for three more years, but because the KHL has clearly fallen off as a league on the whole. Goalies are also voodoo, Fowler's the third or fourth best NCAA goalie we've had in the past decade. The issue for Hutson is D isn't really where we're hurting at the NHL level currently or in the future. We really need better forwards to compete.

At the NHL level I am perfectly content with the progress our guys are making. I just want to see more to be confident any of these guys will be the reinforcements the current core is looking for. I can completely understand why Hughes went after Newhook after seeing how these first few months have unfolded. Bergevin left the forward pool largely empty and to be honest the 2022 draft was pretty dud in terms of impact forwards we drafted.

I know we're early in the rebuild but I've seen what happens to teams that whiff on the years they had high draft positions. We also didn't start with nothing. We had a 1C, top line winger, several potential 1/2/3D, etc. Detroit are finally showing something for example and Larkin's going to age out of his prime in a couple of years before they're even real contenders. Not only that they whiffed so much that Yzerman had to plug six or seven holes with vets. They've only got 5 drafted guys in the entire roster. Vancouver are also finally taking a step forward after wasting 5 years of EP and Quinn Hughes. The age of their group isn't conducive to a long period as contenders. Buffalo didn't get those reinforcements in the Eichel time period so they had to extend their rebuild multiple times and still aren't making the playoffs.

I'm not watching the Habs to make money, I don't care about playoff revenue. I want to see a winning team, not a team that barely makes the playoffs and loses every year like the Bergevin years. I don't currently see anything to give me that kind of hope. I see holes that don't have corks or plugs in the system yet.

 

[Scriptor]

Essentially everyone except Roy, Konyshukov, Hutson, Engstrom, Beck when considering context, and the goalies (minus Dobes who is struggling heavily). Even then very few standout seasons going on for Habs prospects, some of them are more treading water than progressing by the leaps and bounds you'd expect from a future NHLer. Lots of guys, mostly not high picks except Kapanen and Tuch albeit, seem to be on pace to not even get signed or do the AHL-deal into potential-ELC thing instead of guaranteed signing.

Biondi, Smith, Tuch, Kapanen, Kostenko, Sobolev, Pitlick, Vrbetic likely don't get signed this year. Though I suspect Kapanen and Tuch get signed because of the complete lack of forward prospects coming in two years from now unless we draft some overagers this year. Mesar and Beck are the only ones coming in next year currently. Roy and Heinemen should be expected to graduate so there is room for depth forwards in Laval.

Kidney, Mysak and Struble are all having disappointing years relative to where they were drafted. Granted Struble had already fallen off as a prospect so his decent start in Laval is more reclaiming value than losing it at this point.

A bunch of super hyped guys are having rough starts in Laval in Mailloux (who is exactly as advertised, special offensively and trainwreck defensively), Farrell, and Heinemen (due to injury obviously). Guys who had good camps or development last year seem to have taken steps back again like Norlinder and Trudeau.

Reinbacher got injured and the new coach doesn't seem to trust him as much as last year's coach did.

Eriksson has become the next Mike Cichy prospect in record time. Not that we should have expectations of 5th rounders and beyond.

Obviously RHP and Ylonen aren't quite adapting to the NHL as well as they did last year. Definitely not a great October and November for the organization. Not worth panicking yet but there are a lot of bad seasons going on.

You forgot Mesar who is doing well with 12 points in 6 games, I believe, no?

 

[ReHabs]

From Elliot Friedman

Nov. 1 stat. In 82-game seasons during the salary-cap era, nine of 66 teams who were four points out of the playoffs after games on that date have reached the postseason. The 2023-24 challengers are Calgary, Edmonton, Pittsburgh and San Jose. Last year’s group went 0-4.

Wildcard makes it a bit difficult but would that means teams that are at or below 10pts at this point are (likely) out of the playoffs?

Western Conference means 9pts and below are in trouble

 

[Tyson]

View attachment 765051

We really never left.

 

[Tyson]

@Scriptor you may want to watch Jayden Struble play before calling him a disappointment. He has been head and shoulders Laval's best Dman this season and should be considered for a call up when the need arises. He has been solid.

 

[DAChampion]

If the Habs draft Eiserman or Celebrini, would you prefer that they start in the NHL or AHL next year?

 

[WeThreeKings]

If the Habs draft Eiserman or Celebrini, would you prefer that they start in the NHL or AHL next year?

Eiserman should go to college.

Celebrini can likely come in and play right away.

 

[Retired]

What they said can as much mean that had Reinbacher been a LHD, they would have skipped him even if he was their BPA.

He was going to be taken at either #5 or #6 no matter what. If it wasn't the Habs, it was Arizona or the Preds after the Habs traded down.

Depends on how they roll. I like charts where you lay down your criteria for a given goal, give them weight (a multiplyer) and then a rating 1-10 per scenario. It gives a number value you can compare for the sum of things hard to weigh against themselves and have arbitrary value. Could be used for rating players or choosing a University for the kids.

ex: (looking for that next scoring forward)

Player 1 (ncaa record breaking goal scoring left winger)
Position x5 (10/10) = 50
Athleticism x5 (8/10) = 40
iq x5 (9/10) = 90
hair x1 (10/10) = 10

total 190

and down the list of prospects. it may come down to hair in the end.

 

[rahad]

If the Habs draft Eiserman or Celebrini, would you prefer that they start in the NHL or AHL next year?

College for one more year. I hope our rebuild will end with the 2025 draft (MTL and Calgary/Florida Pick).

 

[LaP]

If the Habs draft Eiserman or Celebrini, would you prefer that they start in the NHL or AHL next year?

Junior for two years. AHL for 3 years. That's the only way to avoid the circus.