The New and really Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[zeke]

Did we have a Vezina goalie? No, but up until this past season he was easily a top 10 goalie in the world and anytime

A borderline top-10 goalie means a slightly above average starting goalie.

Pretty much every one in sports considers hockey goalies the most important position in sports. That and Quarterback. We just used Vasi and Hellebuyck as examples. You know how hard it is to find goalies that dominant and consistent. Most GMs say you have to build from the net out.

If Campbell doesn't repeat what he did last year and Mrazek doesnt have a decent year, we're screwed. All of Woll, Scott, Akhtyamov and Petruzzelli are all at least 2 years away from being NHLers, none are blue chippers and not that promising. If we don't have a decent starting goalie, our core is not taking us anywhere.

Recent NHL history has shown us that having two quality options is almost always better than loading up on one guy - even if you're lucky enough to have a true elite guy.

 

[Pookie]

Huh?

He didn't report it as a proven fact, he just said what somebody told him. Why are you so butt-hurt about it?

I forgot. Some are literal and can’t reason.

The hypothesis was the core is good. Don’t touch it.

the proof offered.... “as one exec told me”... was that they would have won if Muzzin wasn’t hurt.

be well.

(plus the core hasn’t achieved anything other than individual awards and milestones. Like Dubas, a failure as a team. That’s objective data. )

 

[CDN24]

A borderline top-10 goalie means a slightly above average starting goalie.





Recent NHL history has shown us that having two quality options is almost always better than loading up on one guy - even if you're lucky enough to have a true elite guy.

How recent, that seems to be changing again. Granted you need a back-up who can play and the days of Brodeur playing 72 games a season are over but in the playoffs the teams that go deep have a defined no 1 and he plays most of the minutes. There for a while Penguins were alternating goalies in playoffs but SC finalists last 4 yrs.

2018 Vegas Fleury is the only guy who played. Caps Holtby played the most Grubhauer played parts of 2 games
2019 Rask played every minute for Boston, Binnington played all but 24 mins for the Blues
2020 Vasi played every minute, Dallas Khobodin carried load. Bishop played in 3 games I think but at least one was in the seeding round where losses did not matter.
2021 Vasi and Price played every minute.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Possible. But I doubt dubas would sign any goalie to that contract.

And remember, TB needed some amazing Cap luck last year to keep their roster together after his contract kicked in.

Everyone knows their luck/60 was 110%.

 

[zeke]

How recent, that seems to be changing again.

Possible. But remember in this past two shortened years 1. Price's team likely doesn't even make the playoffs in a regular season and 2. Vasi's team has yet to feel the impact of having a $9.5m goalie.

And binnington is a perfect example of riding a hot goalie instead of a "true #1".

 

[Pookie]

Everyone knows their luck/60 was 110%.

did one exec say that?

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

A borderline top-10 goalie means a slightly above average starting goalie.





Recent NHL history has shown us that having two quality options is almost always better than loading up on one guy - even if you're lucky enough to have a true elite guy.

So if there are only 10 guys in the league who are considered above average starters out of 62 goalies, wouldn't you consider those guys a core piece to your team?

This is likely what I would have for my top ten a year or so ago.

1. Vasi
2. Hellebuyck
3. Rask
4. Price
5. Fleury
6. Lehner
7. Andersen
8. Varlamov
9. Kuemper
10. Grubauer/ Markstrom

Those last 5 or 6 guys I would say are likely interchangeable.

 

[Gabriel426]

Possible. But remember in this past two shortened years 1. Price's team likely doesn't even make the playoffs in a regular season and 2. Vasi's team has yet to feel the impact of having a $9.5m goalie.

And binnington is a perfect example of riding a hot goalie instead of a "true #1".

But Binnington was and still is their No. 1 Goalie. He took over the No. 1 job. How can you say that he is not their true No. 1.

As for TB and Vas, it will be interesting to see how they play this season but they are still the team to beat.

 

[zeke]

But Binnington was and still is their No. 1 Goalie. He took over the No. 1 job. How can you say that he is not their true No. 1.

.

Because he was literally their 3rd stringer AHLer and they had no hesitation playing him over both their #1 and #2 goalie when they struggled.

 

[zeke]

So if there are only 10 guys in the league who are considered above average starters out of 62 goalies, wouldn't you consider those guys a core piece to your team?

Nope, not me.

Not enough difference between the 5th-25th goalies to care too much, imo.

 

[Duffman955]

He has not put together a Cup contender. How can I say that? They have yet to get even close to competing for the Cup. Also take issue with "put together" as he was gifted two franchise players and signed another that wanted so badly to return to his home town he left money on the table. Dubas also inherited Reilly and Nylander. His meaningful contributions: Signing Brodie and the Muzzin/Campbell trade (both of which I give him an A+ for). That is really it.

What he has done is what everyone has been correctly saying for the past few years: Boxed himself in with $40M to his stars which has not left him with enough cap space to fill out the roster with cup-calibre depth.

Tampa Bay was top-heavy as well, stellar blueline and goaltending but it wasn't until they brought in a 3rd line that could contribute did they win. Caps were the same. There are teams that are exceptions to that rule, but what we have seen the last two post-seasons from the Leafs is that there isn't enough depth if M&M are shut down by opposing teams.

So this Summer Dubas recycles the plan from last off-season but with an arguably weaker supporting cast. There are maybe 3-4 players projected to be in the lineup that are still heading towards their peak performance, the rest have plateaued or are in decline.

After the debacle against Montreal, added to 4 previous first-round exits I don't see how Shanahan looks at what Kyle did this Summer and doesn't scratch his head thinking "Tell me again how this roster is supposed to be better and should give me more optimism than the previous five versions?"

He's not the one on the ice. We were heavy favorites because of the players that were put out there.

He's not the one choking.

 

[kb]

He's not the one on the ice. We were heavy favorites because of the players that were put out there.

He's not the one choking.

Correct. I am continually amazed at the lengths people will go to bash the GM of the most successful regular season team in modern Leaf history.

The players play, the GM puts teams together. The playoffs had 2 very big ill-timed injuries, and running into hot goaltending.

People need to check out Doug Armstrong's GM record prior to winning the cup. Then Binnington comes out of nowhere and wins them a cup. He may prove to be a 1 hit wonder, but it goes to show you as your goaltending goes, so does your team.

 

[Zybalto]

Correct. I am continually amazed at the lengths people will go to bash the GM of the most successful regular season team in modern Leaf history.

The players play, the GM puts teams together. The playoffs had 2 very big ill-timed injuries, and running into hot goaltending.

People need to check out Doug Armstrong's GM record prior to winning the cup. Then Binnington comes out of nowhere and wins them a cup. He may prove to be a 1 hit wonder, but it goes to show you as your goaltending goes, so does your team.

It's mind boggling to me.

Toronto suffers some crazy injuries but still outshoot their opposition 175-132 in elimination games the last two years.

Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares(In only 2 games) get 16 points in dominating possession/analytic numbers.
The entire rest of the team gets only 12 points and blow games with insane unpressured giveaways.

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

Crazy overriding narrative "BLAME THE STARS!"

 

[mikeyz]

So it looks like losing McCann to keep Kerfoot was the plan all along.

 

[Racer88]

Th

It's mind boggling to me.

Toronto suffers some crazy injuries but still outshoot their opposition 175-132 in elimination games the last two years.

Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares(In only 2 games) get 16 points in dominating possession/analytic numbers.
The entire rest of the team gets only 12 points and blow games with insane unpressured giveaways.

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%

Crazy overriding narrative "BLAME THE STARS!"

The entire rest of the team is filled with low paid players and yes this year 1 of the stars was injured and 1 actually produced and yes the other 2 did not produce.
Losing teams alway try to spin things like shots and expected this or that while winners celebrate their wins
It doesn’t matter how many shots they lob at the net if they don’t go in it doesn’t matter
If it’s just goaltending how did Willy score and Spezza score

 

[Gabriel426]

Because he was literally their 3rd stringer AHLer and they had no hesitation playing him over both their #1 and #2 goalie when they struggled.

That’s why he is part of the Blues core now.
Like all core players, he is part of the core till someone plays better than him and take his spot in the core.
Just like if Mack signs with the Pens when he hits UFA, He will be part of Pens core and most likely Malkin will either signs on a discount or leaves the team but that doesn’t take away Malkin is part of Pens core prior to that.

 

[Menzinger]

So it looks like losing McCann to keep Kerfoot was the plan all along.

Not surprising. He's definitely a player the front office values a lot more than many folks presume.

Always puts up great defensive numbers.

 

[zeke]

That’s why he is part of the Blues core now.
Like all core players, he is part of the core till someone plays better than him and take his spot in the core.
Just like if Mack signs with the Pens when he hits UFA, He will be part of Pens core and most likely Malkin will either signs on a discount or leaves the team but that doesn’t take away Malkin is part of Pens core prior to that.

Not every player you sign is part of your core.

 

[Gabriel426]

Not every player you sign is part of your core.

Did I say that in my post?
Did you even read my post?

How can you expect others to have a discussion with you if you don’t even read other people post?

 

[Gabriel426]

Everything around here is in circle.

Chia won a Cup but is he a good GM?
Is Masai a good GM before winning the Championship?
Can a GM be consider a good GM without winning a Championship?
Can you consider someone a good GM when the team he/she/they assemble can only make the playoffs?
Can a team be consider a contender without winning a round in the playoffs for 5 yrs?
Last question, can a team not being label contender win the Cup?

 

[The CyNick]

Correct. I am continually amazed at the lengths people will go to bash the GM of the most successful regular season team in modern Leaf history.

The players play, the GM puts teams together. The playoffs had 2 very big ill-timed injuries, and running into hot goaltending.

People need to check out Doug Armstrong's GM record prior to winning the cup. Then Binnington comes out of nowhere and wins them a cup. He may prove to be a 1 hit wonder, but it goes to show you as your goaltending goes, so does your team.

The Lou built Leafs were the best regular season team in terms of points.

Last years team played in the worst division in hockey and played exclusively against those teams. And then STILL couldn't get out of the first round.

I would find it comical if there was some alternate universe where Lou stayed GM of the Leafs and then lost in back to back years to the Jackets and Habs in the round before the first round and first round respectively just to see how some of these same people would be carving him.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Not surprising. He's definitely a player the front office values a lot more than many folks presume.

Always puts up great defensive numbers.

He puts up solid ES points as well. We likely won't be using him on the PP this year, so 35 points out of him as a 3C would be excellent.

 

[The CyNick]

Everything around here is in circle.

Chia won a Cup but is he a good GM?
Is Masai a good GM before winning the Championship?
Can a GM be consider a good GM without winning a Championship?
Can you consider someone a good GM when the team he/she/they assemble can only make the playoffs?
Can a team be consider a contender without winning a round in the playoffs for 5 yrs?
Last question, can a team not being label contender win the Cup?

I would only label a GM as elite if they have success is multiple places. Lou is a great example. Multiple Cups in Jersey despite being in a not very appealing market. Then turned the Leafs around and then turned the Isles from a laughing stock to a perennial final four team (losing only to the modern day dynasty Tampa Bay).

Anyone with their name on the Cup deserves recognition (unless they stepped into a situation where a core was already established and did next to nothing to put them over the top).

A guy like Dubas is at the bottom of the barrel right now. Never built a championship team, never even won a round. And on top of that has turned a team on the rise to a team fighting to stay above water. If the team suddenly turns around and wins a Cup or two, then you have to give him his due recognition.

 

[The CyNick]

Not surprising. He's definitely a player the front office values a lot more than many folks presume.

Always puts up great defensive numbers.

Good to see physical evidence of how out to lunch this front office is.

 

[Menzinger]

Good to see physical evidence of how out to lunch this front office is.

Eyetest and stats suggest otherwise. You want to reduce goals against, you have Kerfoot out on the ice.