The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[Stephen]

well, i gave you some analytics which likes both of them.

as for Campbell being just above average, if Mrazek manages to bump his overall numbers up near Jack's I think we'll all be very happy.

Think so. If Campbell plays at 90% of what he gave us last year during the regular season and Mrazek comes in fitting like a hand in glove for the Leafs defense style we could be very solid in net.

 

[A1LeafNation]

fair, though NMC's do get moved all the time.

I'll grant you that tavares' would be the most difficult / least valuable to trade. Though even then, plenty of teams would still love to get their hands on a rare legit #1C, from ages 31-34, with only $24.8m left to pay on his last 4yrs in real money ($6.2m per year).

Teams will be lining up for Tavares. That's not the problem.

The problem is convincing him to go somewhere else out of Toronto.

 

[zeke]

The objective is winning? I don't understand why measuring actual success is off limits? As great as you may think a team looks on paper, and no matter how much better statistically they are then their opponent, if it doesn't work on the ice then how good was it really? A number of good teams with good theories on why they could win, but when your team can't beat anybody, how realistic is your theory?

So you are using the argument "They lost in the playoffs, so Dubas didn't do anything good" argument, like I said.

You showed me acquisitions that don't apply.

They all apply.

Mrazek actually is the one that doesn't apply in terms of moneyball adds - it looks like fair value to me. He'd have to be very, very good for his deal to actually look like a bargain, though.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Biggest criticism of Dubas is overpaying our core....but the cap was supposed to go up making it a tight couple years then get some breathing room. Cant foresee the pandemic. Wouldn't be that big a deal otherwise.
Other than that I think he's done a great job reshaping his skill only vision by adding players to support the core.
Our biggest hold up now seems to be our core not stepping up....again hard to predict.

To me this, (not our core), is the biggest problem. The pandemic screwed our plans and if Dubas doesn't change course (which is what seems to be happening), chances are that we're ... screwed.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

fair, though NMC's do get moved all the time.

I'll grant you that tavares' would be the most difficult / least valuable to trade. Though even then, plenty of teams would still love to get their hands on a rare legit #1C, from ages 31-34, with only $24.8m left to pay on his last 4yrs in real money ($6.2m per year).

Ya but NMC on players that really want to play here and raise their family here rarely get moved. I don't see any situation whereby JT waives to be honest so him being paid less in real dollars than his AAV doesn't really matter. Particularly because if by some chance he does waive his NMC I doubt it will be to go to a bottom feeder which are probably the only teams that can fit his cap hit regardless of salary owed.

 

[zeke]

Teams will be lining up for Tavares. That's not the problem.

The problem is convincing him to go somewhere else out of Toronto.

true. at the same time, I'm not sure Tavares is the kind of guy to make too big a stink.

 

[ACC1224]

Mrazek has the ability to steal games almost singlehandedly but if he's off that night, you're screwed and won't win. Can't say I am in love with the contract either.

In terms of actual winning...that's what does matter and that's how Cups are won. Pretenders can count their expected cups for during the off-season.

That is done daily. It's good comedy.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Biggest criticism of Dubas is overpaying our core....but the cap was supposed to go up making it a tight couple years then get some breathing room. Cant foresee the pandemic. Wouldn't be that big a deal otherwise.
Other than that I think he's done a great job reshaping his skill only vision by adding players to support the core.
Our biggest hold up now seems to be our core not stepping up....again hard to predict.

This and the terrible drafting done by Hunter not supplying any cheap ELC talent.

 

[sparxx87]

What the GM inherits is irrelevant when assessing the individual moves he made. You don't get a pass on bad move after bad move because you started with little. If the average of your transactions are a "C" grade at best, you can't say he would do better inheriting a superior team.

Burke made disastrous moves from contracts, to trades, to drafting and he did it consistently; that trend doesn't change with a better team. His team construction was flawed from the start and his vision was to "retool" a bubble team with no future instead of rebuilding. He didn't "start" with Kessel - he decided that building around a soft skill winger was the keystone of his retool - worse than anything you can criticize Dubas of doing.

Starting point is only relevant if all you want to do is a simplified zoom-out looking at end results. In the end, winning is all that matters, and Burke still didn't even get the team to the playoffs while at the same time draining the pipeline so bad that it demanded a scorched earth rebuild from the next regime. He's a significantly worse, wannabe Lou.

I didn't give him a pass on anything. The point was that he started with a far inferior group. And they did make the playoffs, the epic game 7 3rd period collapse. An ugly end, but some would say that team probably overachieved and likely didn't belong in a game 7 against those Bruins.

Whatever you want to call it, we agree Kessel trade was both ill timed and the wrong "building block" to be paying such a premium for... But it's hard for me to draw any parallels to Dubas in that one because they were playing with different chips under different stakes.

It's not really simplified. I'd argue its pretty complex given the amount of moving parts and certainly far from scientific... but again, expectations are higher when you inherit a franchise centre, two elite wingers on ELC + top 10-15 prime age d man and goalie with playoffs as the floor and title as the ceiling vs a group of mostly fringe NHL'ers with lottery floor and possibly 7-8 seed as the ceiling.

Two entirely different spectrums IMO.

 

[sparxx87]

So you are using the argument "They lost in the playoffs, so Dubas didn't do anything good" argument, like I said.



They all apply.

Mrazek actually is the one that doesn't apply in terms of moneyball adds - it looks like fair value to me. He'd have to be very, very good for his deal to actually look like a bargain, though.

Didn't do enough good. Important to make that distinction.

How do they apply if those who pay no mind to stats liked the value? Zach Bogosian being exhibit A. Veteran rhd who can skate and pass a little, but earns his keep playing physical and tough defense in front of the net and below the circles (something that often doesn't show up in any numbers). The Leafs needed to get harder to play against and he checked almost every box on top of the playoff experience and sub $1M price tag.

That was obvious. That was not an underappreciated player who was undervalued by everyone so I don't agree with your classification as a moneyball pick up.

 

[Knies iT]

I didn't give him a pass on anything. The point was that he started with a far inferior group. And they did make the playoffs, the epic game 7 3rd period collapse. An ugly end, but some would say that team probably overachieved and likely didn't belong in a game 7 against those Bruins.

Whatever you want to call it, we agree Kessel trade was both ill timed and the wrong "building block" to be paying such a premium for... But it's hard for me to draw any parallels to Dubas in that one because they were playing with different chips under different stakes.

It's not really simplified. I'd argue its pretty complex given the amount of moving parts and certainly far from scientific... but again, expectations are higher when you inherit a franchise centre, two elite wingers on ELC + top 10-15 prime age d man and goalie with playoffs as the floor and title as the ceiling vs a group of mostly fringe NHL'ers with lottery floor and possibly 7-8 seed as the ceiling.

Two entirely different spectrums IMO.

They made the playoffs in an asterisk year. Under Dubas, people would dismiss that season.

My entire point is that you are saying he would do better if he inherited the current team - it's a flawed premise based on his transaction history. He would bring the same problems that he's always struggled with (contracts, drafting, etc.), just with bigger repercussions. It'd essentially be a Jim Benning situation where you have Beagle, Sutter, Roussell, Eriksson, etc. signed to inflated contracts in the bottom six, but your depth would be twice as bad because Burke cannot draft for squat so there are no ELC's to supplement your core.

Dubas also did not inherit the core on ELC's. He inherited the core coming off of ELC's. Lou inherited that situation, and left the next regime in handcuffs with the Zaitsev/Marleau deals.

It always comes down to "expectation". Yes, expectations are sky high, but go look at polls before the playoffs. Both last off-season and pre-playoffs the majority of this board voted that they supported Dubas' moves (adding toughness, leadership, etc.). Now it's revisionist history all over again. Your problem is actually with an underperforming core. Dubas hasn't even been here as long as Burke.

 

[sparxx87]

They made the playoffs in an asterisk year. Under Dubas, people would dismiss that season.

My entire point is that you are saying he would do better if he inherited the current team - it's a flawed premise based on his transaction history. He would bring the same problems that he's always struggled with (contracts, drafting, etc.), just with bigger repercussions. It'd essentially be a Jim Benning situation where you have Beagle, Sutter, Roussell, Eriksson, etc. signed to inflated contracts in the bottom six, but your depth would be twice as bad because Burke cannot draft for squat so there are no ELC's to supplement your core.

Dubas also did not inherit the core on ELC's. He inherited the core coming off of ELC's. Lou inherited that situation, and left the next regime in handcuffs with the Zaitsev/Marleau deals.

It always comes down to "expectation". Yes, expectations are sky high, but go look at polls before the playoffs. Both last off-season and pre-playoffs the majority of this board voted that they supported Dubas' moves (adding toughness, leadership, etc.). Now it's revisionist history all over again. Your problem is actually with an underperforming core. Dubas hasn't even been here as long as Burke.

If we're adding asterisks, lets not forget to mention the team lost in the play in round of the COVID year and didn't qualify for the 16 team playoffs two years after setting a franchise record.

You can't say that with any sort of certainty because every situation presents a unique set of circumstances that could impact your action/inaction. How do you know he wouldn't have done what he did in Anaheim? I don't think either of us can be certain but hopefully can agree that this same result was going to be a much longer road in Toronto. Dubas had more talent in 3 players than Burke had in the entire organization.

When you compare him to Jim Benning you lose me completely.

Majority can be wrong. It happens all the time, especially in pro sports.

The underperforming core is part of it, but IMO so is the supporting cast who don't collectively move the needle how and where I like, and the coaching and tactical approach has been almost head scratching at points. Particularly in the playoffs, it's important for a coach to create favorable matchups for his players to counter strengths and exploit weaknesses. The coaching staff has done a very poor job of this the past few years and have only compounded the bigger problem with roster depth and balance.

 

[4thline]

You can't say that with any sort of certainty because every situation presents a unique set of circumstances that could impact your action/inaction. How do you know he wouldn't have done what he did in Anaheim? I don't think either of us can be certain but hopefully can agree that this same result was going to be a much longer road in Toronto. Dubas had more talent in 3 players than Burke had in the entire organization.

A lot of that was self imposed (both directly and by rumoured influence on what Fletcher did. Steen/Coliacovo/Stralman/Kubina/McCabe out the door in the space of 10 months, in every case we lost the trade and spent the cap savings on worse alternatives.

It's crazy how different things look if you could make the simple change of ease off the pressure to remake the team overnight, draft and develop internally, and undo 3 trades from October 08 to October 09

No Steen trade - dumb, and given the Finger fiasco I'm not sure that Fletch didnt think we were getting Backes
No Kubina trade- firesale giveaway on a top pairing defender, was in the last year of his deal and would have been a 1st at the deadline, PLUS we wouldn't have had the money for Komisarek
No Kessel trade (self expanatory)

Then- don't wiff on Ryan/Blacker/Devane , get at least 1 (but preferably 2) of Tatar/Panik/Dumoulin/Barrie/McNabb/Orlov/Smith

 

[zeke]

Dubas also did not inherit the core on ELC's. He inherited the core coming off of ELC's. Lou inherited that situation, and left the next regime in handcuffs with the Zaitsev/Marleau deals.

yup.

 

[zeke]

It always comes down to "expectation". Yes, expectations are sky high, but go look at polls before the playoffs. Both last off-season and pre-playoffs the majority of this board voted that they supported Dubas' moves (adding toughness, leadership, etc.). Now it's revisionist history all over again. Your problem is actually with an underperforming core.

yep.

all these angry posters were praising dubas for "finally figuring out you need toughness!" at this point last year.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Making the playoffs and putting together successful regular seasons is a degree of success. Losing in the first round consistently because you constructed a weak bottom 6 that is soft and easy to play against is a failure.
That’s on the G.M

Top players choking when the going gets tough is a failure of the players. When the refs put the whistle away and result to game management you better have tough skin and a strong mental approach and tenacity.
That’s on the players.

So they are all failures as a team.

We needed some snarl throughout the lineup and there was a nonexistent supply of it from management right down to our prospect system and drafting preference.

Dubas seems to have picked up the right type of players to to balance out that deficiency this off season. More still needs to be done by players and management. Games 5 to 7 against against Montreal was telling. They choked out hard

 

[ACC1224]

They made the playoffs in an asterisk year. Under Dubas, people would dismiss that season.

My entire point is that you are saying he would do better if he inherited the current team - it's a flawed premise based on his transaction history. He would bring the same problems that he's always struggled with (contracts, drafting, etc.), just with bigger repercussions. It'd essentially be a Jim Benning situation where you have Beagle, Sutter, Roussell, Eriksson, etc. signed to inflated contracts in the bottom six, but your depth would be twice as bad because Burke cannot draft for squat so there are no ELC's to supplement your core.

Dubas also did not inherit the core on ELC's. He inherited the core coming off of ELC's. Lou inherited that situation, and left the next regime in handcuffs with the Zaitsev/Marleau deals.

It always comes down to "expectation". Yes, expectations are sky high, but go look at polls before the playoffs. Both last off-season and pre-playoffs the majority of this board voted that they supported Dubas' moves (adding toughness, leadership, etc.). Now it's revisionist history all over again. Your problem is actually with an underperforming core. Dubas hasn't even been here as long as Burke.

At the end of the day, no GM has walked into a more desirable situation than Dubas has.
Whether he squanders this opportunity or has success with it remains to be seen.
Early returns aren't promising but there is still time.

 

[zeke]

At the end of the day, no GM has walked into a more desirable situation than Dubas has.

Lou did.

 

[sparxx87]

A lot of that was self imposed (both directly and by rumoured influence on what Fletcher did. Steen/Coliacovo/Stralman/Kubina/McCabe out the door in the space of 10 months, in every case we lost the trade and spent the cap savings on worse alternatives

I think all of it was self imposed through poor decisions at various levels over consecutive years. Burke certainly wasn't immune although some bring up a fair point that if he was indeed under ownership pressure to produce playoff gates than I can at least understand the impatience and over aggression. Over the balance he also made some really good moves that at least restored some faith for me. Beauchemin, for example, seemed like a reasonable fit at a reasonable salary. When he didn't find the success they'd hoped, they made the decision to move on and parlay the UFA into what became a solid top 4 in Jake Gardiner for a number of years along with Lupul who became an All Star and provided a second top tier talent that gave the first semblance of a legitimate first line in several years. Schenn/JVR and the rumored story behind the negotiations (proposed the 1 for 1 months prior but walked away when he was asked to add. Revisited several times where he held strong and eventually robbed Holmgren after giving him months to think about it)

Such a mixed bag but you bring a good point about where the influence/motivation may have been. That's an important factor to consider that we'll likely never know.

 

[Stephen]

Lou did.

Lou took a 31st place team into the playoffs so safe to say he did his job for that stage of the build.

 

[4thline]

I think all of it was self imposed through poor decisions at various levels over consecutive years. Burke certainly wasn't immune although some bring up a fair point that if he was indeed under ownership pressure to produce playoff gates than I can at least understand the impatience and over aggression. Over the balance he also made some really good moves that at least restored some faith for me. Beauchemin, for example, seemed like a reasonable fit at a reasonable salary. When he didn't find the success they'd hoped, they made the decision to move on and parlay the UFA into what became a solid top 4 in Jake Gardiner for a number of years along with Lupul who became an All Star and provided a second top tier talent that gave the first semblance of a legitimate first line in several years. Schenn/JVR and the rumored story behind the negotiations (proposed the 1 for 1 months prior but walked away when he was asked to add. Revisited several times where he held strong and eventually robbed Holmgren after giving him months to think about it)

Such a mixed bag but you bring a good point about where the influence/motivation may have been. That's an important factor to consider that we'll likely never know.

Yeah I added more after the fact. Burkes downfall was two things- inability to draft, and a disastrous calendar year of Oct 08- Oct 09. Beauchemin was good, there was the Bozak recruitment, but other than those and the nobrainer deadline deals it was like we were bleeding organizational talent in the name of rebranding.

 

[zeke]

Lou took a 31st place team into the playoffs the first year he was here so safe to say he did his job for that stage of the build.

Lou inherited the same talent that Kyle inherited, except Lou had them all on ELC deals.

Lou added nothing helpful to that group for Kyle to inherit - only some horrendous contracts and an imploding starting goalie.

 

[Stephen]

Lou inherited the same talent that Kyle inherited, except Lou had them all on ELC deals.

Lou added nothing helpful to that group for Kyle to inherit - only some horrendous contracts and an imploding starting goalie.

Lou did draft Auston Matthews and acquire the “imploding starting goalie” Kyle chose to continue with for 3 additional years.

Though the whole idea of Kyle Dubas inheriting from Lou is a bit of a myth anyway since he’s been part of the Shanaplan since the early days and wouldn’t have been passively uninvolved while Lou was in charge.

 

[zeke]

Lou did draft Auston Matthews and acquire the “imploding starting goalie” Kyle chose to continue with for 3 additional years.

yes, Lou inherited a no-brainer 1st overall pick in a generational draft. agreed.

 

[ACC1224]

Lou took a 31st place team into the playoffs so safe to say he did his job for that stage of the build.

Yep, he really set the table well for him as well as Tavares falling into his lap.
Dubas still has time though to make the most of this good fortune.