The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[sparxx87]

Burkes experience would certainly help. Team would probably be a little less skilled but not roll over so easily when things get tough.
Nylander would have been traded for holding out and Marner likely bridged.

IMO, not sure the Team is better off with Dubas but I don't think Burke would have been the answer either.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating for Burke, just trying to keep in perspective the difference in situations they walked into. I was always hot and cold with Burke. On one hand, I see the game in a similar way and share his construction philosophy which at @Stephen alluded to in essentially building your coach a tool belt with different pieces geared towards specific game situations you might encounter.... but on the other hand, based on this philosophy, I have a lot of questions as to why certain moves were made as from my perspective, they don't fit what we said we're trying to do.

Like most managers, there was good and bad... but big picture he did ok considering where he started. Like Dubas with the RFA contracts, Burke made an early error in the Kessel trade that had him playing 'catch up' almost immediately.

 

[Sypher04]

It's not.
It seems the number of fans who love everything is about the same as those who hate everything, their opinions are equally as meaningless.
Rest of us are in the middle being honest.

agreed 100%

 

[TML Dynasty]

Biggest criticism of Dubas is overpaying our core....but the cap was supposed to go up making it a tight couple years then get some breathing room. Cant foresee the pandemic. Wouldn't be that big a deal otherwise.
Other than that I think he's done a great job reshaping his skill only vision by adding players to support the core.
Our biggest hold up now seems to be our core not stepping up....again hard to predict.

 

[sparxx87]

When Burke came in, it was similar to Babcock being hired.
Fans were excited that someone at or near the top of the game were being brought in.
That brought hope. That feeling didn't exist when Dubas was named.

Like Burke, Babcock brought credibility and respect they were lacking.

With Dubas it seemed more like 'is this for real?'

 

[hotpaws]

Some I’m sure fit this description, but I don’t think that’s a large number. I think you’ll find most people who support the management just genuinely don’t believe that all the crap they get is warranted. Some of it sure, but many fans get pretty ridiculous with their criticisms

that's exactly what it is and the reason you feel compelled to praise the Ritchie signing

 

[ottomaddox]

I'm still fuming angry about Shanny's comments on Twitter (David Ayres Game) yesterday.

I hope to God Dubas goes over Shanny's head and expects his team to win games in every situation. Not just worry about how a win might be perceived by the fans.


^
I can't believe I just typed that. What the Hell is wrong with this team?

 

[Sypher04]

that's exactly what it is and the reason you feel compelled to praise the Ritchie signing

I praised the Ritchie signing? That’s news to me. I think it’s a solid signing with potential to work out well, but I haven’t really said anything beyond that lol

 

[kevsh]

So is it pretty much accepted that Reilly is going to go to free agency but he'll remain a Leaf for this season as they take another run?

And if it fails, and let's he honest - that's a safe bet right now, yet another valuable trade commodity walks for nothing. That has to be it for Dubas right? Right?

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'm still fuming angry about Shanny's comments on Twitter (David Ayres Game) yesterday.

I hope to God Dubas goes over Shanny's head and expects his team to win games in every situation. Not just worry about how a win might be perceived by the fans.


^
I can't believe I just typed that. What the Hell is wrong with this team?

What happened to your thread about Shanny on the Ayres game?

 

[Sypher04]

So is it pretty much accepted that Reilly is going to go to free agency but he'll remain a Leaf for this season as they take another run?

And if it fails, and let's he honest - that's a safe bet right now, yet another valuable trade commodity walks for nothing. That has to be it for Dubas right? Right?

still too early to say how it plays out, but I’d bet on Rielly signing

 

[ottomaddox]

What happened to your thread about Shanny on the Ayres game?

I think Google is a useful application for all people.

 

[All Mod Cons]

So is it pretty much accepted that Reilly is going to go to free agency but he'll remain a Leaf for this season as they take another run?

And if it fails, and let's he honest - that's a safe bet right now, yet another valuable trade commodity walks for nothing. That has to be it for Dubas right? Right?

4 more years! 4 more years!

I hope regardless of how embarassing and shit it is for us fans, they keep trotting him back year after year. Job for life.

Let's just see how low things can get.

 

[ACC1224]

So is it pretty much accepted that Reilly is going to go to free agency but he'll remain a Leaf for this season as they take another run?

And if it fails, and let's he honest - that's a safe bet right now, yet another valuable trade commodity walks for nothing. That has to be it for Dubas right? Right?

I'd bet Rielly is signed before opening night.

 

[zeke]

So let's set the ground rules. Every time a player chooses the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency, it's Moneyball in action and not just a cheap name at the end of the line?

If the players are more productive than their market value, then obviously yes.

I'm saying Clear Site Analytics supports a Mrazek/Leafs marriage and will be interesting to see that in action.

And I gave you more analytics to back that up - which also conveniently show us that Campbell was also a smart analytics moneyball add too.

 

[zeke]

Ok, but that’s not my argument?

I love your attempt to frame me as someone who just blindly shits on everything he does. That tells me you need to remove the emotion and consider what I’m saying and why I might be saying it.

I want the Leafs to be successful, just like you.

We were having a useful discussion, and them you quickly shifted to "when it counts" argument, which we all know is just another "but they lost in the playoffs" argument and even if I showed you that many of these moneyball adds performed very well in the playoffs yoi'd still say "but they lost!".

 

[zeke]

Dubas f***ed our cap and is just throwing shit at the wall every off season hoping something sticks , i wouldn't read more into it than that .

what bothers me is him harping on how he believes in this core like the pieces he surrounded them with are adequate support to win the cup , basically he's just setting up an excuse to try to deflect the blame away from himself for him being unable to build quality support pieces around the core and throwing M and M under the bus

Leafs have one of the best cap situations in the league, with zero bad contracts whatsoever.

He could easily choose to trade any and all of the big contracts for very good value whenever he wants.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Leafs have one of the best cap situations in the league, with zero bad contracts whatsoever.

He could easily choose to trade any and all of the big contracts for very good value whenever he wants.

I dont mean to nitpick but language is so important. He most certainly couldn't trade any and all of the big contracts whenever he wants because the second biggest contract has a full NMC attached for its entire duration

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think Google is a useful application for all people.

Me too! I use it when I am looking things up on the net. Unless, of course, when I can ask a primary source.

 

[Racer88]

We were having a useful discussion, and them you quickly shifted to "when it counts" argument, which we all know is just another "but they lost in the playoffs" argument and even if I showed you that many of these moneyball adds performed very well in the playoffs yoi'd still say "but they lost!".

But they did actually lose in the playoffs. .
We can’t dismiss that. The playoffs and winning the cup is what the entire thing is all about…….winning.

 

[Knies iT]

What part of this addresses what I said? That Burke inherited a team at the bottom of the league while Dubas’ was near the top.. and despite one with a pile of gold and the other with a pile of shit, both have a high water mark of game 7 of the first round.

Or do you honestly believe starting point is irrelevant?

What the GM inherits is irrelevant when assessing the individual moves he made. You don't get a pass on bad move after bad move because you started with little. If the average of your transactions are a "C" grade at best, you can't say he would do better inheriting a superior team.

Burke made disastrous moves from contracts, to trades, to drafting and he did it consistently; that trend doesn't change with a better team. His team construction was flawed from the start and his vision was to "retool" a bubble team with no future instead of rebuilding. He didn't "start" with Kessel - he decided that building around a soft skill winger was the keystone of his retool - worse than anything you can criticize Dubas of doing.

Starting point is only relevant if all you want to do is a simplified zoom-out looking at end results. In the end, winning is all that matters, and Burke still didn't even get the team to the playoffs while at the same time draining the pipeline so bad that it demanded a scorched earth rebuild from the next regime. He's a significantly worse, wannabe Lou.

 

[Stephen]

If the players are more productive than their market value, then obviously yes.




And I gave you more analytics to back that up - which also conveniently show us that Campbell was also a smart analytics moneyball add too.

Based on what Kevin Woodley mentioned, Clear Site analytics actually disagrees and places Jack Campbell at slightly above average based on his 2021 performance. So he’s not an analytics darling by their analysis. Not sure what goes into the sausage since that’s behind a pay wall but he goes into some detail on that in In Goal podcast and cameos on Maple Leaf Hotstove. This is where the Mrazek stuff is also brought up as a goalies whose play style matches team style.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021/08/13/mlhs-podcast-episode-26/

 

[zeke]

Based on what Kevin Woodley mentioned, Clear Site analytics actually disagrees and places Jack Campbell at slightly above average based on his 2021 performance. So he’s not an analytics darling by their analysis. Not sure what goes into the sausage since that’s behind a pay wall but he goes into some detail on that in In Goal podcast and cameos on Maple Leaf Hotstove. This is where the Mrazek stuff is also brought up as a goalies whose play style matches team style.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021/08/13/mlhs-podcast-episode-26/

well, i gave you some analytics which likes both of them.

as for Campbell being just above average, if Mrazek manages to bump his overall numbers up near Jack's I think we'll all be very happy.

 

[sparxx87]

We were having a useful discussion, and them you quickly shifted to "when it counts" argument, which we all know is just another "but they lost in the playoffs" argument and even if I showed you that many of these moneyball adds performed very well in the playoffs yoi'd still say "but they lost!".

The objective is winning? I don't understand why measuring actual success is off limits? As great as you may think a team looks on paper, and no matter how much better statistically they are then their opponent, if it doesn't work on the ice then how good was it really? A number of good teams with good theories on why they could win, but when your team can't beat anybody, how realistic is your theory?

You showed me acquisitions that don't apply. Stephen pointed this out to you as well. Bunting and Mrazek kind of fit the category so we'll have to see how they work out. I don't know much about Bunting but I've never really been a Mrazek fan. I was initially excited for the Wings based on his world jr performance and the fiery competitiveness but he's been so wildly inconsistent over the years that it's hard to know what you're getting. I like Jack a lot more and for me, the best case scenario is Jack taking the net... but that also means he'd have earned a higher salary than Mrazek next summer which then puts them in the difficult spot of choosing to let him walk in favour of the cheaper option, or paying him on top of Mrazek who now sits $3. whatever million on the bench most nights.

Very interested to see how the goaltending situation plays out.

 

[zeke]

I dont mean to nitpick but language is so important. He most certainly couldn't trade any and all of the big contracts whenever he wants because the second biggest contract has a full NMC attached for its entire duration

fair, though NMC's do get moved all the time.

I'll grant you that tavares' would be the most difficult / least valuable to trade. Though even then, plenty of teams would still love to get their hands on a rare legit #1C, from ages 31-34, with only $24.8m left to pay on his last 4yrs in real money ($6.2m per year).

 

[WTFMAN99]

The objective is winning? I don't understand why measuring actual success is off limits? As great as you may think a team looks on paper, and no matter how much better statistically they are then their opponent, if it doesn't work on the ice then how good was it really? A number of good teams with good theories on why they could win, but when your team can't beat anybody, how realistic is your theory?

You showed me acquisitions that don't apply. Stephen pointed this out to you as well. Bunting and Mrazek kind of fit the category so we'll have to see how they work out. I don't know much about Bunting but I've never really been a Mrazek fan. I was initially excited for the Wings based on his world jr performance and the fiery competitiveness but he's been so wildly inconsistent over the years that it's hard to know what you're getting. I like Jack a lot more and for me, the best case scenario is Jack taking the net... but that also means he'd have earned a higher salary than Mrazek next summer which then puts them in the difficult spot of choosing to let him walk in favour of the cheaper option, or paying him on top of Mrazek who now sits $3. whatever million on the bench most nights.

Very interested to see how the goaltending situation plays out.

Mrazek has the ability to steal games almost singlehandedly but if he's off that night, you're screwed and won't win. Can't say I am in love with the contract either.

In terms of actual winning...that's what does matter and that's how Cups are won. Pretenders can count their expected cups for during the off-season.