The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[BrannigansLaw]

Our starting goalie Fred, who started more games and then faked an injury to save his pride, was a disaster that dragged his elite team down to a 95pt bubble pace when he was in net. Dubas made a big move this summer to fix that biggest hole.

But yes, the backup goalie Jack that Dubas added the year before was very good after the starter faceplanted, and the team put up a 134pt pace with him in net,, so dubas saved our season from Freddy there. With a nice assist from a smaller move Dubas made to add Hutch as the 3rd stringer who was solid and let the team win at a 105pt pace. Less impressive was the move to add Rittich.



Yep, nothing changes in the playoffs until Matthews/Marner/Tavares produce like they do in the regular season.

It’s almost like giving those three every dollar they could have asked for given zero playoff success was a mistake. But I guess it’s their fault for taking the money and not Dubas.

It’s unbelievable the deals Matthews and Marner got given their comparables around the league. Truly staggering that given they were front loaded, over the top AAV and the endorsement money they get in this market, we couldn’t even sign them for 8 years. Meanwhile Brayden Point signs for 9.5 for 8 years.

Even f***ing dumbass Chiarelli managed to lock up McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years.

 

[hotpaws]

the core he "inherited" was going nowhere from any GM in the league who would have been in Kyle's spot.

This core not playing to their abilities is the reason we have not advanced in the playoffs.

Seems a bit foolish to blame Kyle for a loyalty that the majority of prospective GM's would have displayed.

the other business around that core has been largely good, with some very obvious mistakes that I've never been afraid to admit were mistakes. But that is going to happen with all GM's. The good outweighs the bad.

All I am saying is, if we want to throw stones at his "blind loyalty" to this core, let that criticism begin now. Not from the previous years. Because no GM in his spot would have moved Mitch, Auston, or JT and if anything they would have moved Willy. Who has been our only effective player in the playoffs from that core.

this isn't basketball where you acquire a couple of star players and surround them with meh complimentary players and win a title , in hockey you need quality players throughout your lineup and the cap space to acquire them , Dubie f***ed the cap and in doing so f***ed himself/the team and the fans

but once he's kicked to the curb i'll join you in trying to get him a new gig by using the "he's a genius but was just too loyal to a weak willed core" excuse , hopefully the Habs or Bruins buy this . lol

 

[Twine Tickler]

We could have moved Marner long ago, especially during his contract discussion. That would have been the best moment to move him and get maximum value.

OK great point.

So what you're telling me is that someone in KD's shoes could have moved on from Mitch Marner at the expiry of his entry level deal. I am assuming you think a lot of GM's would have done this? and that Kyle kind of took a poor approach to resigning his superstar player?

here is a list of star RFA players who have yet to be signed this offseason, and almost all will likely not get moved to another team:

Brady Tkachuk, Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, and Elias Petterson, and Kirill Kaprisov.

Each GM is in a very similar spot as KD was with Mitch in 2019. Lets see how many of them make that franchise altering decision to move on from their star players. Because remember we are not talking about the deal Mitch eventually signed, we are talking about moving on from Mitch entirely as a 22 year old budding star. It just doesn't happen. No GM does that. So why be critical of Kyle for doing something the vast majority of NHL GM's would have done? We can talk about his overpayments on Mitch, Auston and JT's deals. They realistically total 5.5 to 6.5 million in overpayments with an unforeseen flat cap immediately thereafter. It has been mitigated in other ways, and we have still been able to improve our defense to a level not seen for 20 years.

But again, lets see how these GM's handle their current situations. Lets see how many of them want to move on from their stars via trade, not offersheet.

 

[zeke]

Holy does Andersen live rent-free in your head with how idiotic your take is about him faking his own injury. Your being insane if you think a player would fake his own injury and the team who has professional doctors wouldn't detect this and allow for it to occur. Andersen's regular-season numbers were trending up prior to the injury. He went up from a .900 or so to a .909 by the 3 game Edmonton sweep. After that he got injured and saw his numbers fall off a cliff.

What was his injury again?

Take a three year sample size and Andersen is superior to Mrazek. Mrazek is quite injury-prone himself and underperforms every year in the playoffs.

Superficially, over 3yrs, they both have .911sv%. If you look at the underlying numbers, though, whereas the leafs gave up a relatively even ratio between shots allowed and quality chances allowed, the Canes had one of the more extreme ratios in the league - giving up the fewest shots in the league while giving up a average to below average amount of quality chances. That's the scenario where a goalie's sv% gets crushed.

But that's irrelevant - Mrazek is an excellent bet to be a significant upgrade on Freddy's faceplant last year. Or the last 2yrs, really.

To be completely fair to Dubas its an absolute wonder that the Leafs have have able to be as good or even better than Lou's leafs given how badly Freddy has faceplanted.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Our starting goalie Fred, who started more games and then faked an injury to save his pride, was a disaster that dragged his elite team down to a 95pt bubble pace when he was in net. Dubas made a big move this summer to fix that biggest hole.

But yes, the backup goalie Jack that Dubas added the year before was very good after the starter faceplanted, and the team put up a 134pt pace with him in net,, so dubas saved our season from Freddy there. With a nice assist from a smaller move Dubas made to add Hutch as the 3rd stringer who was solid and let the team win at a 105pt pace. Less impressive was the move to add Rittich.



Yep, nothing changes in the playoffs until Matthews/Marner/Tavares produce like they do in the regular season.

Please provide evidence. This agenda you have with Freddy and the narrative that you spew is a complete lie unless supported with evidence.

*Got in all 3 buzzwords the Dubas club love.

 

[zeke]

this isn't basketball where you acquire a couple of star players and surround them with meh complimentary players and win a title , in hockey you need quality players throughout your lineup and the cap space to acquire them , Dubie f***ed the cap and in doing so f***ed himself/the team and the fans

Dubas has added Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie, Campbell, Mrazek to buttress the elite core. That's more than what Lou added to the Leafs and Isles COMBINED.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Please provide evidence. This agenda you have with Freddy and the narrative that you spew is a complete lie unless supported with evidence.

*Got in all 3 buzzwords the Dubas club love.

Agreed.

Andersen sucks and was an anchor come playoff time for sure but the excuses for Dubas from his loyalists are getting ridiculous.

 

[zeke]

Please provide evidence. This agenda you have with Freddy and the narrative that you spew is a complete lie unless supported with evidence.

*Got in all 3 buzzwords the Dubas club love.

What was his injury again?

 

[Twine Tickler]

You say you're not comparing, but that's exactly what you're doing.

As an aside, I'm not even sure that was the "best" team ever. PTS% isn't a valid point of comparison when comparing to teams who played in an era where only two points were awarded per game, not sometimes three points like it is today. Just a thought, doesn't matter either way. And there's also the fact that our division was below average quality wise, so the team maybe wasn't as good as it's regular season point totals might suggest.

of course, it is no where near the benchmark to say this was the best team ever. Nor was I even suggesting it. But the product on the ice, along with the results, which can be partly illustrated with their pts%, was more than enough to think that this team should go for it at the TDL. Overpayment and all.

This team was very dangerous, and should have faired better in the playoffs. All of the prior indicators were there.

This year truly was a case of it walking like a duck, talking like a duck, and it actually being a pigeon

 

[All Mod Cons]

What was his injury again?

Please provide evidence that he faked injury like you said. Your narrative and agenda is a complete lie without the evidence.

Please back -up your narrative/agenda.

 

[hamzarocks]

OK great point.

So what you're telling me is that someone in KD's shoes could have moved on from Mitch Marner at the expiry of his entry level deal. I am assuming you think a lot of GM's would have done this? and that Kyle kind of took a poor approach to resigning his superstar player?

here is a list of star RFA players who have yet to be signed this offseason, and almost all will likely not get moved to another team:

Brady Tkachuk, Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, and Elias Petterson, and Kirill Kaprisov.

Each GM is in a very similar spot as KD was with Mitch in 2019. Lets see how many of them make that franchise altering decision to move on from their star players. Because remember we are not talking about the deal Mitch eventually signed, we are talking about moving on from Mitch entirely as a 22 year old budding star. It just doesn't happen. No GM does that. So why be critical of Kyle for doing something the vast majority of NHL GM's would have done? We can talk about his overpayments on Mitch, Auston and JT's deals. They realistically total 5.5 to 6.5 million in overpayments with an unforeseen flat cap immediately thereafter. It has been mitigated in other ways, and we have still been able to improve our defense to a level not seen for 20 years.

But again, lets see how these GM's handle their current situations. Lets see how many of them want to move on from their stars via trade, not offersheet.

You said yourself the only core piece we could have moved on from was Nylanxer which the only time frame that works is during his contract holdout.

No one was taking 7M player coming off a terrible year in his first season after signing the deal. After that he played great and there was no/little noise of trading him

Trading marner was only possible during his holdout or this offseason. The best time was when he was threatening to sign an offersheet. We'd have control and more bidders than we will next year if we move him.

Tkachuk's name has been on the block with him being disgruntled with the Sens, EP has said he wants to play on a winning team. We will see how many of these teams end up retaining these players and becoming a better playoff team for it. Making a move as substantial as dealing a core piece like the names mentioned is tough, but if the team results following signing a big contract to those players are as disappointing as ours it becomes questionable why a team is invested so heavily in faulty core assets

The leafs team defense quality will be determined next year when playing in an actual hockey league as opposed to a covid league. We will see how good the defense is when they play under normal circumstances that the teams of the past 20 years had to go through rather than only facing the same 6 teams for 56 games.

The defense will need to be good as the offense has lot considerable depth over the past few years

 

[zeke]

Please provide evidence that he faked injury like you said. Your narrative and agenda is a complete lie without the evidence.

Please back -up your narrative/agenda.

My evidence is that no injury was ever disclosed, not timeliness was ever given for his recovery, and that the "injury" only occurred after he was already stinking it up and losing his starting job. And of course that he magically dressed as soon as the ltir cap implications allowed it.

What's the evidence that he had a real injury again?

 

[Sypher04]

OK great point.

So what you're telling me is that someone in KD's shoes could have moved on from Mitch Marner at the expiry of his entry level deal. I am assuming you think a lot of GM's would have done this? and that Kyle kind of took a poor approach to resigning his superstar player?

here is a list of star RFA players who have yet to be signed this offseason, and almost all will likely not get moved to another team:

Brady Tkachuk, Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, and Elias Petterson, and Kirill Kaprisov.

Each GM is in a very similar spot as KD was with Mitch in 2019. Lets see how many of them make that franchise altering decision to move on from their star players. Because remember we are not talking about the deal Mitch eventually signed, we are talking about moving on from Mitch entirely as a 22 year old budding star. It just doesn't happen. No GM does that. So why be critical of Kyle for doing something the vast majority of NHL GM's would have done? We can talk about his overpayments on Mitch, Auston and JT's deals. They realistically total 5.5 to 6.5 million in overpayments with an unforeseen flat cap immediately thereafter. It has been mitigated in other ways, and we have still been able to improve our defense to a level not seen for 20 years.

But again, lets see how these GM's handle their current situations. Lets see how many of them want to move on from their stars via trade, not offersheet.

Excellent post and I agree with everything said with the lone exception being the math.

JT isn’t exactly overpaid. He is paid below what the market offered and as a UFA the only way to acquire the player is to ante up, so I don’t know you can really fault Dubas for the AAV there.

Beyond that, Auston is probably about $1m overpaid at most, based on the shorter term.

And Mitch is the probably about $2m

So, I’d say around $3m total which is still not great at all but yeah

 

[BrannigansLaw]

My evidence is that no injury was ever disclosed, not timeliness was ever given for his recovery, and that the "injury" only occurred after he was already stinking it up and losing his starting job. And of course that he magically dressed as soon as the ltir cap implications allowed it.

What's the evidence that he had a real injury again?

That’s not real evidence. That’s just you speculating.

You made the claim. You can’t ask others to show evidence he was really injured now lol.

 

[hamzarocks]

What was his injury again?



Superficially, over 3yrs, they both have .911sv%. If you look at the underlying numbers, though, whereas the leafs gave up a relatively even ratio between shots allowed and quality chances allowed, the Canes had one of the more extreme ratios in the league - giving up the fewest shots in the league while giving up a average to below average amount of quality chances. That's the scenario where a goalie's sv% gets crushed.

But that's irrelevant - Mrazek is an excellent bet to be a significant upgrade on Freddy's faceplant last year. Or the last 2yrs, really.

To be completely fair to Dubas its an absolute wonder that the Leafs have have able to be as good or even better than Lou's leafs given how badly Freddy has faceplanted.

Andersen: Playing through injury with Leafs 'wasn't the best idea'

Maple Leafs' Keefe: 'No concern' Frederik Andersen is done for season

Andersen to start for Maple Leafs vs. Senators in return from knee injury


Lower body/knee injury. Your beyond reasoning with how delusional you are against andersen and towards dubas.

I no certainly you'll be switching your opinion on mrazek if he stinks with the team next year.

You run away when your wrong, easy to do but classless to see. After the playoffs where you hype the leafs up and talk smack about other teams when leafs get humbled you walk out to save face. You've hated andersen pretty much since when we traded for him, and despite him proving you wrong with years of excellent goaltending your piling on him after he's left and making up fake stories about how he was never injured despite himself, the coach and management expressing he was

 

[Dekes For Days]

This was a playoff team before he got here

Which changes absolutely nothing. And as we've already discussed, the situations that Dubas has been handed and dealt with were far from a pile of sunshine and roses.

None of his draft picks have done much either.

His draft picks have been developing quite well. How quickly do you think picks outside of the top of the 1st round tend to solidify a role in the NHL? I think the more accurate statement is that Lou's draft picks haven't done much.

He made a decent trade here and there but we’re still weak defensively, still suspect in goal and now lack offensive depth to boot.

On the contrary, we are strong in all positions. We were a top-5 offensive and defensive team last year, and we haven't seen any significant loss in either, and we have replaced the weak link of our goaltending with somebody who has performed well over the past 3 years, to make a solid tandem.

Hilarious @Dekes For Days keeps asking for an example when Dubas’ predecessor was literally a direct example.

Except not only did he not make the playoffs every year he was here, but he also was not fired. He came into the team with a pre-determined set timeline to be GM, and completed it, before moving onto an advisory role as planned.

 

[Twine Tickler]

this isn't basketball where you acquire a couple of star players and surround them with meh complimentary players and win a title , in hockey you need quality players throughout your lineup and the cap space to acquire them , Dubie f***ed the cap and in doing so f***ed himself/the team and the fans

but once he's kicked to the curb i'll join you in trying to get him a new gig by using the "he's a genius but was just too loyal to a weak willed core" excuse , hopefully the Habs or Bruins buy this . lol

Dubas has overpaid on the following contracts:

JT: 3 million overpaid
Mitch: 1.5 million overpaid
Auston: 1.5 million overpaid
Kampf: 500k overpaid

Mitch and Auston's deals are overpayments likely only because of the flat cap, whereas JT's was just an overpayment. Which just happens in UFA.

He's also got:

Spezza: 2 million underpaid
Holl: 1.5 million underpaid
Bunting: 250k underpaid
Campbell: 2 million underpaid

He didn't sign Campbell, but was wise enough to acquire a good value contract with term.

its relatively a wash at this point. Not to mention the rumored discount Mo is willing to take. it will likely put us in a higher value for dollar spent, all while managing a flat cap. I am confused how people don't see this.

 

[hotpaws]

Dubas has added Tavares, Muzzin, Brodie, Campbell, Mrazek to buttress the elite core. That's more than what Lou added to the Leafs and Isles COMBINED.

and yet it senile old Lou who teams keeps going further in the playoffs and who isn't clinging to his job by his finger tips . lol

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Which changes absolutely nothing. And as we've already discussed, the situations that Dubas has been handed and dealt with were far from a pile of sunshine and roses.

His draft picks have been developing quite well. How quickly do you think picks outside of the top of the 1st round tend to solidify a role in the NHL?

On the contrary, we are strong in all positions. We were a top-5 offensive and defensive team last year, and we haven't seen any significant loss in either, and we have replaced the weak link of our goaltending with somebody who has performed well over the past 3 years, to make a solid tandem.

Except not only did he not make the playoffs every year he was here, but he also was not fired. He came into the team with a pre-determined set timeline to be GM, and completed it, before moving onto an advisory role as planned. So no, not an example.

What possible situation would be better than the one he was given?? Matthews and Marner having one more year of ELC eligibility? I mean seriously, it doesn’t get much better unless you suddenly become GM of the 2020
TB Lightning. In terms of when a GM begins his tenure, most start out in way more tumultuous waters than Dubas. Sunshine and roses was pretty much all he got comparatively.

 

[All Mod Cons]

My evidence is that no injury was ever disclosed, not timeliness was ever given for his recovery, and that the "injury" only occurred after he was already stinking it up and losing his starting job. And of course that he magically dressed as soon as the ltir cap implications allowed it.

What's the evidence that he had a real injury again?

That is not evidence. Your agenda and narrative, which is a common theme, has been questioned. Please provide actual evidence that your narrative and agenda isn't a complete lie.

Thus far, I've yet to see any evidence that supports your agenda and narrative.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In terms of when a GM begins his tenure, most start out in way more tumultuous waters than Dubas.

Do you have anything to substantiate that? I didn't actually get a response from you when we explored some of the situations Dubas "inherited". There's obviously a lot more that goes into the situation a GM walks into than the team's raw point total the year before.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Excellent post and I agree with everything said with the lone exception being the math.

JT isn’t exactly overpaid. He is paid below what the market offered and as a UFA the only way to acquire the player is to ante up, so I don’t know you can really fault Dubas for the AAV there.

Beyond that, Auston is probably about $1m overpaid at most, based on the shorter term.

And Mitch is the probably about $2m

So, I’d say around $3m total which is still not great at all but yeah

ya exactly, I completely agree. But I was being conservative with my numbers of overpayment to reflect the opposing argument. As in to say, this is the value of overpayment you have suggested KD has dished out, here is where that loss was mitigated.

 

[hotpaws]

Dubas has overpaid on the following contracts:

JT: 3 million overpaid
Mitch: 1.5 million overpaid
Auston: 1.5 million overpaid
Kampf: 500k overpaid

Mitch and Auston's deals are overpayments likely only because of the flat cap, whereas JT's was just an overpayment. Which just happens in UFA.

He's also got:

Spezza: 2 million underpaid
Holl: 1.5 million underpaid
Bunting: 250k underpaid
Campbell: 2 million underpaid

He didn't sign Campbell, but was wise enough to acquire a good value contract with term.

its relatively a wash at this point. Not to mention the rumored discount Mo is willing to take. it will likely put us in a higher value for dollar spent, all while managing a flat cap. I am confused how people don't see this.

Twine i'm with you buddy , once Dubie gets fired at the end of this season we'll run around these boards pimping the shit out of Dubie in an effort to get him another job .

hell , i'm sure ToneDog/ egd27/Brannigans/Bomber/Sparxx/All Mod Cons and a few others will help us get him hired in our division .

 

[All Mod Cons]

Twine i'm with you buddy , once Dubie gets fired at the end of this season we'll run around these boards pimping the shit out of Dubie in an effort to get him another job .

hell , i'm sure Tonedog/ egd27/Brannigans/Bomber/Sparxx/All Mod Cons and a few others will help us get him hired in our division .

I'd vow to personally write to Jeremy Jacobs.

 

[zeke]

The defense will need to be good as the offense has lot considerable depth over the past few years

The defense is very good, so no worries there.

But have they actually lost offensive depth?

Lou's last leafs paces ----> this year's team with 2yr paces

EV pts (PP pts)

Matthews 66 (17) -----> Matthews 73 (26)
Marner 42 (27) --------> Marner 67 (27)
Nylander 49 (12) -----> Nylander 50 (19)

Kadri 37 (20) -------> Tavares 53 (23)
Marleau 38 (9) ----> Bunting 39 (12)
Hyman 38 (0) ------> Mikheyev 34 (0)

Bozak 30 (13) -------> Kerfoot 31 (3)
VanRyk 34 (20) ------> Spezza 32 (9)
Brown 25 (2) ---------> Ritchie 28 (10)

Moore 18 (0) ---------> Kampf 18 (0)
Martin 20 (0) --------> Engvall 23 (0)
Komarov 17 (3) ----> Simmonds 17 (9)

Plekanec 9 (0) ------> Amadio 13 (4)
Leivo 21 (0) ----------> Kase 30 (0)
Johnsson 18 (9) ----> Anderson 26 (0)
Kapanen 18 (0) -----> Robertson 14 (0)