The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[ACC1224]

average tenure of nhl gm - Google Search

2nd result
The average tenure of an NHL GM is 5.5 years, less than both the MLB (5.6) and the NBA (6.6). David Poile, with 23 years of service as the GM of the Nashville Predators, has the longest active tenure of all GMs across The NHL, MLB and The NBA.

Those long tenured GM's like Poile would bring up the average obviously.
Of course there is nothing 'average' about Dubas' tenure having the table set for him like no other GM in league history. I wonder what the 'expected' tenure length would be?

 

[ULF_55]

Google

It wasn't a serious question, I'm guessing the list isn't very long at all unless the GM arrived into a Cup ready contender.

Additionally, not many GM's win the Cup no matter how many years they're at it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I suggest we direct our frustrations on the players themselves. The present themselves as wolves in the regular season, only to be sheep in the post season. I am really not sure of 1 GM on the planet who would not have been a buyer at the TDL when his team in the middle of the best season pts% in the franchise's 100+ year existence.

I wish people would stop bringing up this completely irrelevant point. Like if we killed it in 1955 or whatever, that wouldn't really matter one way or the other, or would that really change your thinking?

 

[ULF_55]

Starting point and distance traveled also have to be factors in consideration for GM job performance evaluation and tenure.

If you inherit a team that was dead last overall, and then improve it by +26 points to make the playoffs in year #2, and then in year #3 of your tenure you set an 100 year old franchise best mark, despite disappointing losing in the playoffs in round #1 there is a clear starting point and distance traveled to allow for future progress to be measured that might buy someone another 2-3 years to see how this all turns out during your 5-6 years of tenure.

If on the other hand you inherit a team that just finished #6th overall with over 100 points, with a roster full of young and promising talent and then 3 years later on the job you're still spinning your wheels and disappointingly losing in round #1, then starting point and distance traveled tells a completely different story, and your going to need some real luck and tangible measurable results to make it the average tenure of 5.5 years.

Yeah, maybe if those 100 point teams can win in the playoffs, and it isn't a mirage team.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I’m not sure if the term “luck” has been tossed around in the context of playoff failures in sports culture as much as it has been in Leaf Land.

Luck implies a game or probability and sometimes the flip of the coin gives you weird outcomes, but no worries because a large enough sample size should even things out and we should be on our merry way.

This kind of thinking seems to fly in the face of the wisdom of the ages which says sometimes you don’t get that many cracks at it. The famous story of Dan Marino thinking he would have many chances at the Super Bowl after losing as a rookie. Only to never make it back.

You've obviously not come across the new term all the cool kids in Leafland are using.

"Expected luck/60"

 

[hotpaws]

I don’t know maybe because most of the trades he’s made have been good ones

yup , that's all i keep hearing , most of his trades are good , his signings are good , hell most of his moves have all been good but the team keeps getting worse , lol

and one more year of good moves and he'll be kicked to the curb to join Burke who was also loved by this board

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm just happy the NFL is starting again. It'll ease the pain for the next month or two. Go Browns go !

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah, maybe if those 100 point teams can win in the playoffs, and it isn't a mirage team.

Maybe we should change our name to The Toronto Mirage. It sounds kind of scary, after so many decades of failure, maybe a change would do everyone some good.

You've obviously not come across the new term all the cool kids in Leafland are using.

"Expected luck/60"

It's hard to keep up with the kids these days, isn't it?

 

[Twine Tickler]

If they fail Dubas/Shanny need to drop the Ego accept they misjudged the capabilities of the core and make a major move.

I am just confused how anyone on here could actually think that any other GM would have moved on from either Mitch or Auston up until this offseason. If anything, the only core player who would have been moved prior to the commencement of last season it would have been William Nylander. Who coincidently was our best player in the playoffs this year. So that would have proven to be a bit of a mistake no?

There is no blind loyalty or ego involved with holding onto Auston (23), Mitch (24), or Willy (25). It has been all about logic and expecting that these high performing superstars would continue to mature year over year. They have done so in the regular season, just not in the post season.

This offseason was the first rational opportunity to move Mitch, but still not Auston. It would make sense to think this core cannot get it done ever after having the year they did, and getting the same end result. Kyle running it back with this core is absolutely a call that will lose him his job should they fail once again. He is not stupid, he is well aware of that. There is a very valid logic to shift gears at this current junction. This core is no longer given the luxury of being labeled as inexperienced kids, and they have shown they crumble at the highest stage. If they fail once again, KD deserves the level of critique he is seeing on this thread. He had the option to go with the data and see 5 straight 1st round exits and shift the core, or go with the gut and trust this core. He is choosing his gut. I am 50/50 on it personally.

But it really is funny the crowd of trade a core piece was the same crowd that was pro trade Willy the last 2 years. That crowd seems a bit quiet these days on that front, yet they would never admit they were wrong in their assessments of Willy

 

[hotpaws]

I don't think any team would want a 32 Year old Jt making 11M at least not at a value which let's us get a different style core piece in return

Marner or Nylandr would be the pieces which could bring back a big package that might fix whatever is wrong with the team.

The best case would be Captain JT bounces back and is a 85+ point player who is driving play for the team in the playoffs.

If all 4 of our guys can play good at once in a series we might actually win one

have you seen JT trying to bring the puck up the ice in any sort of traffic ? expecting him to drive the play will lead to more disappointment

and i'm not expecting quality back for JT , i'd be more than happy to trade him for a 7th just open up 11m in cap space

also trading Willie doesn't free up enough cap space to make much of a difference and no one is going to gut there team of high quality cheap pieces for Marner

 

[hotpaws]

I'm just happy the NFL is starting again. It'll ease the pain for the next month or two. Go Browns go !

you and my son are glutens for punishment . lol

 

[Twine Tickler]

so in summary your saying it's everyone's fault but KD's , sorry my mistake . your saying it's everyone's fault but KD's and JT's and that there's no way any other person as GM could have had more success with this core he inherited

the core he "inherited" was going nowhere from any GM in the league who would have been in Kyle's spot.

This core not playing to their abilities is the reason we have not advanced in the playoffs.

Seems a bit foolish to blame Kyle for a loyalty that the majority of prospective GM's would have displayed.

the other business around that core has been largely good, with some very obvious mistakes that I've never been afraid to admit were mistakes. But that is going to happen with all GM's. The good outweighs the bad.

All I am saying is, if we want to throw stones at his "blind loyalty" to this core, let that criticism begin now. Not from the previous years. Because no GM in his spot would have moved Mitch, Auston, or JT and if anything they would have moved Willy. Who has been our only effective player in the playoffs from that core.

 

[egd27]

Thank you for supporting what I said - most GMs are given more than 4 years.

That's not necessarily what "average" tells us......but I'm sure someone well versed in stats already knows that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I am just confused how anyone on here could actually think that any other GM would have moved on from either Mitch or Auston up until this offseason. If anything, the only core player who would have been moved prior to the commencement of last season it would have been William Nylander. Who coincidently was our best player in the playoffs this year. So that would have proven to be a bit of a mistake no?

There is no blind loyalty or ego involved with holding onto Auston (23), Mitch (24), or Willy (25). It has been all about logic and expecting that these high performing superstars would continue to mature year over year. They have done so in the regular season, just not in the post season.

This offseason was the first rational opportunity to move Mitch, but still not Auston. It would make sense to think this core cannot get it done ever after having the year they did, and getting the same end result. Kyle running it back with this core is absolutely a call that will lose him his job should they fail once again. He is not stupid, he is well aware of that. There is a very valid logic to shift gears at this current junction. This core is no longer given the luxury of being labeled as inexperienced kids, and they have shown they crumble at the highest stage. If they fail once again, KD deserves the level of critique he is seeing on this thread. He had the option to go with the data and see 5 straight 1st round exits and shift the core, or go with the gut and trust this core. He is choosing his gut. I am 50/50 on it personally.

But it really is funny the crowd of trade a core piece was the same crowd that was pro trade Willy the last 2 years. That crowd seems a bit quiet these days on that front, yet they would never admit they were wrong in their assessments of Willy

I agree this is the first off-season to consider moving Mitch. It should be strongly considered IMO and if we can get the kind of return I think we could get, it should be done (too late now).

And BTW, I never wanted to trade Nylander so your assumption that those who want to trade Marner also wanted to trade Nylander is 100% wrong. It's generally not a good idea to label people in such general terms.

Don't be sure there is no blind loyalty involved. Dubas promised Nylander he would never be traded, that was a really dumb promise to make, but he made it. He overpaid Marner, I think he may well be stubbornly not even considering trading him hoping to be proven justified in giving him that ridiculous contract.

 

[hamzarocks]

I am just confused how anyone on here could actually think that any other GM would have moved on from either Mitch or Auston up until this offseason. If anything, the only core player who would have been moved prior to the commencement of last season it would have been William Nylander. Who coincidently was our best player in the playoffs this year. So that would have proven to be a bit of a mistake no?

There is no blind loyalty or ego involved with holding onto Auston (23), Mitch (24), or Willy (25). It has been all about logic and expecting that these high performing superstars would continue to mature year over year. They have done so in the regular season, just not in the post season.

This offseason was the first rational opportunity to move Mitch, but still not Auston. It would make sense to think this core cannot get it done ever after having the year they did, and getting the same end result. Kyle running it back with this core is absolutely a call that will lose him his job should they fail once again. He is not stupid, he is well aware of that. There is a very valid logic to shift gears at this current junction. This core is no longer given the luxury of being labeled as inexperienced kids, and they have shown they crumble at the highest stage. If they fail once again, KD deserves the level of critique he is seeing on this thread. He had the option to go with the data and see 5 straight 1st round exits and shift the core, or go with the gut and trust this core. He is choosing his gut. I am 50/50 on it personally.

But it really is funny the crowd of trade a core piece was the same crowd that was pro trade Willy the last 2 years. That crowd seems a bit quiet these days on that front, yet they would never admit they were wrong in their assessments of Willy

We could have moved Marner long ago, especially during his contract discussion. That would have been the best moment to move him and get maximum value.

The issue is with Dubas being defensive when it comes to these guys. He has taken the blame away from them and put it on himself/coaching. If he is doing that then there is a clear target on his back from fans/media alike. Some people don't like him in general and will be biased to any move he makes, but others grow tired of not seeing any results obtained despite Dubas being touted as a visionary when he was first hired by his fans.

Willy needs to be doing what hes doing on a yearly basis, the bad taste from the 2019 season won't be gone if the leafs are getting bounced continuously in the first round. If he sticks as a 65-70 point winger in the regular season we need him to be able to elevate his play come playoffs, as JT/MM and Matthews to an extent don't seem capable as of yet (Marner's had 3 shots now)

 

[Gary Nylund]

All I am saying is, if we want to throw stones at his "blind loyalty" to this core, let that criticism begin now. Not from the previous years. Because no GM in his spot would have moved Mitch, Auston, or JT and if anything they would have moved Willy. Who has been our only effective player in the playoffs from that core.

I agree completely, let the criticism begin.

 

[zeke]

Backup goaltending wasn't our single biggest weakness. Andersen was injured and had a bad year. Mrazek isn't a good consistent goalie. He's going to have to show he can play in the leafs system which has made goalies look worse than they are in the past.

Mrazek is also a playoff poor performer, which is the excuse Dubas fans have lived by, saying that untimely and unclutch goaltending cost the leafs these past three years. Checking out Mrazek's playoff stats with the canes and you find he isn;'t a good performer himself.

Our biggest weakness was LW which has been downgraded not upgraded.

Our biggest weakness was clearlyrics, and obviously, our starting goalie putting up an .995sv%

Dubas made the big move and fixed it.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I wish people would stop bringing up this completely irrelevant point. Like if we killed it in 1955 or whatever, that wouldn't really matter one way or the other, or would that really change your thinking?

Its suggesting that the level of play that the team Kyle put on the ice was producing at a rate that was higher than anything seen before for this franchise. It's not comparing the 2021 version of the leafs to any other version. But simply illustrating how historic of a regular season they were having. Hard to imagine any GM not feeling confident to the point of overpaying at the TDL having that type of results.

But yet now in hindsight it was shame on you for thinking that way. When the vast majority on here felt the same way about our chances

 

[BrannigansLaw]

They might not get 7-8 years randomly, but they also don't get fired after 4 years when they're putting out good teams and making the playoffs every year. Which is why, instead of the requested examples, I've just gotten a whole bunch of excuses for why everybody else deserves more time than Dubas.

This was a playoff team before he got here that set a franchise points record the year before he took over. Making the playoffs was great in 2017 and 2018 but he doesn’t get credit for not yet completely running the team into the ground and achieving the absolute bare minimum expected of this team. So this whole, he’s putting out playoff teams is nonsense. Give me a break.

He’s done nothing to move the needle with all the assets he’s had at his disposal and now we’re shedding depth and becoming worse due to his incompetent negotiating skills. None of his draft picks have done much either. He made a decent trade here and there but we’re still weak defensively, still suspect in goal and now lack offensive depth to boot.

 

[hamzarocks]

Our biggest weakness was clearlyrics, and obviously, our starting goalie putting up an .995sv%

Dubas made the big move and fixed it.

*.895, and our starting goalie was Campbell by year-end, with Andersen being the backup.

Leafs got great goaltending in the playoffs with Campbell, just like how we got with Andersen in 2017, 2019, and mostly in 2020.

Our offensive contributions died down for the 3rd year in a row and we lost hyman for ritchie/bunting which playoff-wise is at best a neutral move. No roster upgrade for the playoff team this season

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Tell that to Lou Lam ...

Inherited a team that finished dead last and improved it by +26 points and made the playoffs the following year after the team had missed 9 of the last 10 years and in his 3rd season after delivering a franchise best 105 point 6 overall finish and playoff birth again he was mysteriously replaced.

Hilarious @Dekes For Days keeps asking for an example when Dubas’ predecessor was literally a direct example.

I’m sure the answer will be that when you have a generational GM talent like Dubas you have to make room for him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's not necessarily what "average" tells us...

Are you saying that you think that with a 5.5 year average tenure, the majority of GMs get fired in 4 years or less?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Its suggesting that the level of play that the team Kyle put on the ice was producing at a rate that was higher than anything seen before for this franchise. It's not comparing the 2021 version of the leafs to any other version. But simply illustrating how historic of a regular season they were having. Hard to imagine any GM not feeling confident to the point of overpaying at the TDL having that type of results.

But yet now in hindsight it was shame on you for thinking that way. When the vast majority on here felt the same way about our chances

You say you're not comparing, but that's exactly what you're doing.

As an aside, I'm not even sure that was the "best" team ever. PTS% isn't a valid point of comparison when comparing to teams who played in an era where only two points were awarded per game, not sometimes three points like it is today. Just a thought, doesn't matter either way. And there's also the fact that our division was below average quality wise, so the team maybe wasn't as good as it's regular season point totals might suggest.

 

[zeke]

*.895, and our starting goalie was Campbell by year-end, with Andersen being the backup.

Our starting goalie Fred, who started more games and then faked an injury to save his pride, was a disaster that dragged his elite team down to a 95pt bubble pace when he was in net. Dubas made a big move this summer to fix that biggest hole.

But yes, the backup goalie Jack that Dubas added the year before was very good after the starter faceplanted, and the team put up a 134pt pace with him in net,, so dubas saved our season from Freddy there. With a nice assist from a smaller move Dubas made to add Hutch as the 3rd stringer who was solid and let the team win at a 105pt pace. Less impressive was the move to add Rittich.

Leafs got great goaltending in the playoffs with Campbell, just like how we got with Andersen in 2017, 2019, and mostly in 2020.

Our offensive contributions died down for the 3rd year in a row and we lost hyman for ritchie/bunting which playoff-wise is at best a neutral move. No roster upgrade for the playoff team this season

Yep, nothing changes in the playoffs until Matthews/Marner/Tavares produce like they do in the regular season.

 

[hamzarocks]

Out starting goalie, who started more games and then faked an injury to save his pride, was a disaster that dragged his elite team down to a 95pt pace when he was in net. Dubas made a big move this summer to fix that biggest hole.

But yes, the backup goalie that Dubas added the year before was phenomenal after the starter faceplanted, so dubas saved our season from Freddy there. With a nice assist from a smaller move Dubas made to add Hutch as the 3rd stringer.

Yep, nothing changes in the playoffs until Matthews/Marner/Tavares produce like they do in the regular season.

Holy does Andersen live rent-free in your head with how idiotic your take is about him faking his own injury. Your being insane if you think a player would fake his own injury and the team who has professional doctors wouldn't detect this and allow for it to occur. Andersen's regular-season numbers were trending up prior to the injury. He went up from a .900 or so to a .909 by the 3 game Edmonton sweep. After that he got injured and saw his numbers fall off a cliff.

Take a three year sample size and Andersen is superior to Mrazek. Mrazek is quite injury-prone himself and underperforms every year in the playoffs.

His career SV% in the playoffs is a .911 which is worse than Andersens (.916 which he has with both the leafs and the ducks in a large sample size than Mrazek)

Andersen was incredible for the leafs for about 3.5 years and sucked for 1.5. Overall he was well worth his deal and the team as a whole collectively failed to win a series when he was our starter.