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[JAK]

Do you have any statistics to back that claim up?

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Just because the team Benning assmbled was garbage doesn't mean that they weren't trying to make the playoffs...

Trading McCann + picks for Gudbranson isn't something a rebuilding team would do

Signing Loui in 2016 isn't something a team that a team not trying to make the playoffs for the next several seasons would do

There's plenty of smaller signings/trades that didn't work out either that suggest they were trying to make the playoffs

I specifically said those two years...Gudbranson and Eriksson were traded to reinforce the playoff push for the Sedins (signalled before Benning even got here)..That was the 'rebuild on the fly' years...2014-17.

There's nothing to suggest were really serious about making a playoff push in 2017-18, or 2018-19.

 

[bossram]

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

There are many more similar articles.

You said a 2nd round pick and a 7th round pick have basically the same probability of becoming NHLers. Then backtracked slightly by saying 3rd rounders are basically the same.

According to the article YOU linked, it says 2nd rounders are three times more likely to become NHLers than 7th rounders (34% vs. 11%). 3rd rounders are still more than twice as likely to become NHLers than 7th rounders (27% vs. 11%).

Do you use any semblance of thought or logic when making these arguments? Do you even read the things you think you've read?

 

[theguardianII]

Dorsett, Sutter, Beagle were all quality players, maybe over paid, maybe too much term, but neither cap$ or term matters to a team rebuilding. And when people argue that the cap and terms harmed the team for the past 2 years, they lack the insight to see that the youth developed much faster, thus pushing the time ahead by the 2 years.

So what did they win for the Canucks?

I am constantly amazed that some people want to credit Benning with the sun coming up.

Two years ago, two now, the team was playing for all they were worth and had a handle on a playoff spot and then starting in February, the rest of the league put the pedal to the medal for playoff runs.
The Canucks quickly went 3 wins and 8 losses and took them out of a playoff spot. This happened with Markstrom and without. Also Toffoli was added and the losing kept up.
At the time of the suspension of the season DUE TO COVID the Canucks were on the outside looking in and had just suffered a few injuries to key players.
They were in a cap situation and looked to lose a player on waivers.
Then the NHL decided to add 8 teams for a play in round, this was not the playoffs yet and Vancouver would not have been in it if not for the expansion of 8 teams
They did defeat Minny, barely, that got them to the final 16.
They defeated a dejected and troubled StLouis club, again by the grace of outstanding goal tending while being out shot embarrassingly.
Then on to Vegas.
To that series no team had ever given up that many shots in NHL history but they got Demko'd and it took 7 games.
All the while the players played as hard as they could and Vancouver boasted added NHL depth by 12 mil over the salary cap. Not a big deal in the playoffs as many teams can maneuver players that way but they were allowed to do that while Minny was not allowed to add any players.

Gillis vs Benning;

Gillis - THE CUPBOARDS ARE BARE THE CUPBOARDS ARE BARE!!!! but they were the best team in the league 2 consecutive years #1 in the regular season.
Drafted bad - Hodgson was doing great even with a degenerative spinal disease, Patrick White, a miss he turned into Erhoff and Ballard, at the time a PP dynamo. Horvat and traded another non player for Gaudette's draft spot.
FA's - The top FA's took less to come play here, Hamhuis and Garrison
Cap structure - 5 mil available at the end of every year and not capped out
2 top ten picks, 2 home runs
Traded away 12 picks

Benning - There is no cupboard at all, no prospects in the system that is why he traded away picks and selected so many players this year, to create depth he should have drafted.
8 first round picks, 4 in the top ten. Virtanen - gone for nothing, McCann - nothing from that trade remains, Juloevi has yet to become a regular NHL player and after his 3rd contract may not ever, the entire 2014 draft class play for other teams except Demko
FA's - Insists he had to pay extra for the over hill gang because they didn't want to come here, odd when 2 years earlier under Gillis FA's took a pay cut, which brings the question, was it the team or Benning that caused FA reluctance?
Capped out every year, the last few years well over the cap.
Let all expiring contract players go for nothing with the exceptions of the Gillis players
Traded away 23 picks, one 1rst rounder in the top 20 and a #9 pick.

A high volume of work that he postponed to the end of the season shows some incompetence in being able to plan ahead.

Selling hope. That has been the mantra for 7 years now. But hey, I got this kid who will save the franchise, he is only 12 but good for 5 years of selling hope. So what is the difference between that kid and Juloevi? Not much except the kid has a higher upside. Why was Juloevi the wrong choice? He was already full grown and played with a powerhouse but his play was declining and 6 other defencemen were scaling the ladder, he wasn't even the top defencemen at the selection either.

The team has a good chance to make the playoffs if they stay healthy just because other teams in the division are going for Wright and maybe even Bedard. Next two years are bumper years for prospects and getting any picks from team will be super expensive.

And again, Hughes is NOT the player advertised. Sure he can score but has never played on a championship team, has had 4 years of scouting reports that all say the same thing as today, he has trouble playing defence against bigger players and in his own zone. He IS a rover, a forward and not a good defensive forward at that, that starts from a defence position that is why the team has to have the very best defensive players on the ice with him, why he gets over 60% ozone starts, why he is hardly ever matched up against the other teams best players, why he is often benched late in a close game. His value as a scorer gets him a lot of his minutes on the PP, not one on the PK though. IMO he has huge value to NJD for marketing and should be traded there for a couple of needed youngish players, Sharangovich, a Russian speaking player to help Podkolzin who also plays all three forward positions and for a defence Vukojevic, Graves or Severson.

 

[bossram]

Do you have any statistics to back that claim up?

No, @JAK does not. Actually, the article he himself linked refutes his own argument.

This is the thought process of a BennningBro.

 

[JAK]

I'm not trying to be rude, but you're aware that 27% is a bigger and better number than 11% in this context right?

"A second round pick pretty much has the same chance as a seventh round pick to play significant games in the league."

The article you linked suggests they have 23% higher chance of playing significant games...

Statistically, going from a 1st to a 2nd is barely different from going down further.

Further more, these are skewed by deep drafts as well, as I mentioned.

Additionally, for the difference between a 2nd to 7th round pick to really show, you need a lot of second round picks, like the Coyotes have done.

 

[JAK]

No, @JAK does not. Actually, the article he himself linked refutes his own argument.

This is the thought process of a BennningBro.

I think in big picture, not in small picture

 

[vanuck]

Today I learned that 34% basically is the same as 11%.

Mathematics is fun!

 

[JAK]

So what did they win for the Canucks?

I am constantly amazed that some people want to credit Benning with the sun coming up.

Two years ago, two now, the team was playing for all they were worth and had a handle on a playoff spot and then starting in February, the rest of the league put the pedal to the medal for playoff runs.
The Canucks quickly went 3 wins and 8 losses and took them out of a playoff spot. This happened with Markstrom and without. Also Toffoli was added and the losing kept up.
At the time of the suspension of the season DUE TO COVID the Canucks were on the outside looking in and had just suffered a few injuries to key players.
They were in a cap situation and looked to lose a player on waivers.
Then the NHL decided to add 8 teams for a play in round, this was not the playoffs yet and Vancouver would not have been in it if not for the expansion of 8 teams
They did defeat Minny, barely, that got them to the final 16.
They defeated a dejected and troubled StLouis club, again by the grace of outstanding goal tending while being out shot embarrassingly.
Then on to Vegas.
To that series no team had ever given up that many shots in NHL history but they got Demko'd and it took 7 games.
All the while the players played as hard as they could and Vancouver boasted added NHL depth by 12 mil over the salary cap. Not a big deal in the playoffs as many teams can maneuver players that way but they were allowed to do that while Minny was not allowed to add any players.

Gillis vs Benning;

Gillis - THE CUPBOARDS ARE BARE THE CUPBOARDS ARE BARE!!!! but they were the best team in the league 2 consecutive years #1 in the regular season.
Drafted bad - Hodgson was doing great even with a degenerative spinal disease, Patrick White, a miss he turned into Erhoff and Ballard, at the time a PP dynamo. Horvat and traded another non player for Gaudette's draft spot.
FA's - The top FA's took less to come play here, Hamhuis and Garrison
Cap structure - 5 mil available at the end of every year and not capped out
2 top ten picks, 2 home runs
Traded away 12 picks

Benning - There is no cupboard at all, no prospects in the system that is why he traded away picks and selected so many players this year, to create depth he should have drafted.
8 first round picks, 4 in the top ten. Virtanen - gone for nothing, McCann - nothing from that trade remains, Juloevi has yet to become a regular NHL player and after his 3rd contract may not ever, the entire 2014 draft class play for other teams except Demko
FA's - Insists he had to pay extra for the over hill gang because they didn't want to come here, odd when 2 years earlier under Gillis FA's took a pay cut, which brings the question, was it the team or Benning that caused FA reluctance?
Capped out every year, the last few years well over the cap.
Let all expiring contract players go for nothing with the exceptions of the Gillis players
Traded away 23 picks, one 1rst rounder in the top 20 and a #9 pick.

A high volume of work that he postponed to the end of the season shows some incompetence in being able to plan ahead.

Selling hope. That has been the mantra for 7 years now. But hey, I got this kid who will save the franchise, he is only 12 but good for 5 years of selling hope. So what is the difference between that kid and Juloevi? Not much except the kid has a higher upside. Why was Juloevi the wrong choice? He was already full grown and played with a powerhouse but his play was declining and 6 other defencemen were scaling the ladder, he wasn't even the top defencemen at the selection either.

The team has a good chance to make the playoffs if they stay healthy just because other teams in the division are going for Wright and maybe even Bedard. Next two years are bumper years for prospects and getting any picks from team will be super expensive.

And again, Hughes is NOT the player advertised. Sure he can score but has never played on a championship team, has had 4 years of scouting reports that all say the same thing as today, he has trouble playing defence against bigger players and in his own zone. He IS a rover, a forward and not a good defensive forward at that, that starts from a defence position that is why the team has to have the very best defensive players on the ice with him, why he gets over 60% ozone starts, why he is hardly ever matched up against the other teams best players, why he is often benched late in a close game. His value as a scorer gets him a lot of his minutes on the PP, not one on the PK though. IMO he has huge value to NJD for marketing and should be traded there for a couple of needed youngish players, Sharangovich, a Russian speaking player to help Podkolzin who also plays all three forward positions and for a defence Vukojevic, Graves or Severson.

What did the signings do for the Canucks?
Go ask Horvat what Dorsett meant to him during the short time there.

 

[bossram]

I think in big picture, not in small picture

So, is the big picture that you're wrong all the time?

Can you explain why, as "evidence", you posted an article that said 2nd round picks are 3x more likely to become NHLers than 7th round picks, when you said they are basically the same?

 

[JAK]

Today I learned that 34% basically is the same as 11%.

Mathematics is fun!

One pick of 32, has a 34% chance.
That's about 1% chance.

Math is fun, trust me

 

[Cornwallace]

I specifically said those two years...Gudbranson and Eriksson were traded to reinforce the playoff push for the Sedins (signalled before Benning even got here)..That was the 'rebuild on the fly' years...2014-17.

There's nothing to suggest were making a playoff push in 2017-18, or 2018-19.

I was responding to a post that included 2016

The Sedin's played until 17/18 and the team's goal never changed with them

 

[supercanuck]

In what world did Sutter/Roussel/Eriksson/Beagle/etc help our young stars "develop faster". The much talked about "3 straight Calder" guys came and were instant stars. Maybe if you consider forcing Bo to become a matchup C due to ineptitude of these "mentors" and the coaching staff.

 

[bossram]

One pick of 32, has a 34% chance.
That's about 1% chance.

Math is fun, trust me

This is unreal.

 

[Cornwallace]

Statistically, going from a 1st to a 2nd is barely different from going down further.

Further more, these are skewed by deep drafts as well, as I mentioned.

Additionally, for the difference between a 2nd to 7th round pick to really show, you need a lot of second round picks, like the Coyotes have done.

No, you literally just don't grasp how statistics work

a 23% difference is actually massive lol...

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

This is getting pretty brutal, even by my standards.

 

[JAK]

So, is the big picture that you're wrong all the time?

Can you explain why, as "evidence", you posted an article that said 2nd round picks are 3x more likely to become NHLers than 7th round picks, when you said they are basically the same?

It's 34% chance, but there is 32 picks.
So realistically, your team's chances of picking a player in the second round is about 1 in 100 each draft.

For lower rounds say 10%, it's about 1 in 300 picks.

If you ask me, in a large picture, they are pretty much the same odds.

 

[vanuck]

One pick of 32, has a 34% chance.
That's about 1% chance.

Math is fun, trust me

Oh it sure is!

 

[JAK]

In what world did Sutter/Roussel/Eriksson/Beagle/etc help our young stars "develop faster". The much talked about "3 straight Calder" guys came and were instant stars. Maybe if you consider forcing Bo to become a matchup C due to ineptitude of these "mentors" and the coaching staff.

When Sutter and Beagle were both healthy, Horvat was playing offensive role and flourished.

Horvat had to become the defensive match up after the injuries, and Sutter and Beagle were never the same.

 

[theguardianII]

What did the signings do for the Canucks?
Go ask Horvat what Dorsett meant to him during the short time there.

Team, team. The name on the front of the jersey. Did Horvat win anything? Did Dorsett fight anyone who bothered Horvat? They didn't even play on the same line and Dorsett was no or not much of a deterrent. The lack of a deterrent was a topic for a number of years ever since they got rid of Tryamkin, who still has had more fights in his short tenure than any Canuck since.

Hey i liked Dorestt but I would not pay $300 bucks to watch him. I paid $300 to watch a team win, not lose close games or finish in the basement year after year.
Sure the losing was tolerable, expected and endurable during a rebuild, while good draft picks were developing and cupboards being restocked.
The cupboards are not filled, many top draft picks are gone and the cupboard is not only empty of draft picks but now has a two to three year vacuum now thanks to Jimmy
But this became laughable after the 6th, 7th or 8th time Benning turned the water blue in the pool.

 

[JAK]

Team, team. The name on the front of the jersey. Did Horvat win anything? Did Dorsett fight anyone who bothered Horvat? They didn't even play on the same line and Dorsett was no or not much of a deterrent. The lack of a deterrent was a topic for a number of years ever since they got rid of Tryamkin, who still has had more fights in his short tenure than any Canuck since.

Hey i liked Dorestt but I would not pay $300 bucks to watch him. I paid $300 to watch a team win, not lose close games or finish in the basement year after year.
Sure the losing was tolerable, expected and endurable during a rebuild, while good draft picks were developing and cupboards being restocked.
The cupboards are not filled, many top draft picks are gone and the cupboard is not only empty of draft picks but now has a two to three year vacuum now thanks to Jimmy
But this became laughable after the 6th, 7th or 8th time Benning turned the water blue in the pool.

I guess you only care about on ice results.

As for the cupboard, look at the drafts between 2016-2019.
Our cupboard is fine.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

You just said Benning to go 0-98, that shows how little thought you gsve to the post other than to flame your opposing views.

A team cannot go more than 0-82.

Your original post was literally "people would complain about Trump if he cured cancer" by the MAGA crowd. I wasn't flaming opposing views, I was showing you how ridiculous your original post was by switching it around. But go ahead and argue semantics. If someone you believe someone is criticizing Benning unfairly tell them why instead of putting off any criticism as blind hatred.

No GM is above criticism, and every GM will be criticized even if some of it is unearned. I have no problem saying when it is unearned. Even Benning. I was one of the people that had no problem giving Hamonic an NMC last year as it was one year, he took a discount, and would of stayed in retirement otherwise. Even MS, the ring leader according to Canucks corner of the toxic Benning haters that hates everything just because Benning had this view.

 

[theguardianII]

I guess you only care about on ice results.

As for the cupboard, look at the drafts between 2016-2019.
Our cupboard is fine.

On ice results? What are you trolling? Why else play the games? Competitive games. Why else have points or standings?
? What about the other 5 drafts?
Or the other 5 first round picks?
What good is having a draft year like 2014, if the GM gets rid of them all? For nothing?

My opinion of Hughes is posted, after 120 games some folks want to give him the keys to the vault. Sorry but let him play out a 2nd contract, Pettersson too.

BTW the cupboard is the farm FYI

 

[Pip]

I guess you only care about on ice results.

As for the cupboard, look at the drafts between 2016-2019.
Our cupboard is fine.

Are you sure you want anyone looking at the 2916 draft?

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

What Would constitute for success around here? I think it would honeslty help discussion if we got that outta the way. The (im guessing) wildly different expectations for success seem to cause a lot of argument.

Personally if we dont make the final 4 or bottom 5 then i would feel this season is a failure. Thats just me though.