The Fall of Pierre

[Golden_Jet]

of course it’s relevant. It shows just how much better the Sens have to play, beginning today, and for the rest of the season to make up the necessary points, to catch and grab a WC spot.

also, just looking at the “games in hand” Ottawa has on just the (Islanders) the current holder of the final WC spot is short sighted, as there are teams (Sabres & Wings) that have games in hand on Ottawa, who also are chasing the Islanders for the exact same WC spot.

the simple way to look at the pursuit of the final WC spot, is to look past the points and games in hand, and just focus on the Points Percentage, which basically combines the games in hand and the accumulated points of each team…. Islanders @ .595, Senators @ .500….. the Senators need to play up to, and surpass the .595 Pts% just to gain ground on the final WC spot…. And meanwhile, the Panthers, Sabres, Wings and Rangers are going to be doing the exact same thing…… it’s kinda like a NASCAR race, and Ottawa is 5 cars back of the Islanders, and all those other teams are not going to allow Ottawa to simply pass them by…. So yes, the 9 points are relevant today, but to be more precise the difference in Points Percentage is what you need to look at, and the other teams in the Conference too.

currently the Probability the Senators make the playoffs (WC spot) sits at 13.3%…. That shows just how relevant those 9 points you casually dismiss are.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Probability of making the Stanley Cup playoffs

www.hockey-reference.com

Actually the easiest and simplest way to check , Is look at wins minus regulation losses.

It works every time you look at standings.
Also aligns with points percentage order.
Last wild card spot is +7, Sens are even.

 

[swiftwin]

of course it’s relevant. It shows just how much better the Sens have to play, beginning today, and for the rest of the season to make up the necessary points, to catch and grab a WC spot.

also, just looking at the “games in hand” Ottawa has on just the (Islanders) the current holder of the final WC spot is short sighted, as there are teams (Sabres & Wings) that have games in hand on Ottawa, who also are chasing the Islanders for the exact same WC spot.

the simple way to look at the pursuit of the final WC spot, is to look past the points and games in hand, and just focus on the Points Percentage, which basically combines the games in hand and the accumulated points of each team…. Islanders @ .595, Senators @ .500….. the Senators need to play up to, and surpass the .595 Pts% just to gain ground on the final WC spot…. And meanwhile, the Panthers, Sabres, Wings and Rangers are going to be doing the exact same thing…… it’s kinda like a NASCAR race, and Ottawa is 5 cars back of the Islanders, and all those other teams are not going to allow Ottawa to simply pass them by…. So yes, the 9 points are relevant today, but to be more precise the difference in Points Percentage is what you need to look at, and the other teams in the Conference too.

currently the Probability the Senators make the playoffs (WC spot) sits at 13.3%…. That shows just how relevant those 9 points you casually dismiss are.

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Probability of making the Stanley Cup playoffs

www.hockey-reference.com

Way to totally miss the point.

Mid-season standings don't matter. There's no trophy for standings at the 41 game mark. The only thing that matters is our standings at the end of the season. Period.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Get a top 4, watch us post a .670% win% in second half, and he heralded a savior and given another 1-2 year shot. Easy af (except getting the top 4 part--missed that boat in the off-season).

 

[Beech]

Way to totally miss the point.

Mid-season standings don't matter. There's no trophy for standings at the 41 game mark. The only thing that matters is our standings at the end of the season. Period.

2023 is predicted to be a good draft year.

If the Sens miss the playoffs and do so narrowly. At say 92-96 points and given the East/West unbalance. It could mean a finish as high as 17th, so a draft pick at 16th overall . Now miss by a mile, fall to (or in their case, stay in) the bottom 10, draft in the top 10 and possibly net another quality player.

if by game 60, they are not knocking on the door, tank. It seems like the NHL today is a Go/No-GO league. Make the playoffs or miss by a mile...miss by a little may be more damming. See Sens 08-16.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

2023 is predicted to be a good draft year.

If the Sens miss the playoffs and do so narrowly. At say 92-96 points and given the East/West unbalance. It could mean a finish as high as 17th, so a draft pick at 16th overall . Now miss by a mile, fall to (or in their case, stay in) the bottom 10, draft in the top 10 and possibly net another quality player.

if by game 60, they are not knocking on the door, tank. It seems like the NHL today is a Go/No-GO league. Make the playoffs or miss by a mile...miss by a little may be more damming. See Sens 08-16.

I do not see the Sens tanking under any circumstances... They'll be trying to win till the end.

 

[Big Muddy]

I do not see the Sens tanking under any circumstances... They'll be trying to win till the end.

Players and coaches will want to win. It's in their DNA.

Tanking is an interesting topic though.

Got to think there's been at least a few instances of deliberate tanking. Buffalo and Toronto (pre Matthews draft) are 2 plausible examples I can think of. There could be others.

I think if we do rise in the standings and do not draft in the top 10 in the deep 2023 draft, our best hope as far as upside is that the new owners may have the ability to be bigger players in free agency. Hope springs eternal as they say.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yeah the players aren’t robots, they need to be challenging for something meaningful right to the end to know what that feels like, along with the crush of defeat.

There is no going back now. Folks have to accept that part of the rise from the ashes will be to have some seasons on the cusp of playoffs.

It’s actually good news if we are drafting in the teens, it means that we have reached our organizational, and developmental goal for the season.

Gives us a solid base to build on to push for the playoffs next season. I’m done with bottom 10 finishes with this core.

 

[swiftwin]

2023 is predicted to be a good draft year.

If the Sens miss the playoffs and do so narrowly. At say 92-96 points and given the East/West unbalance. It could mean a finish as high as 17th, so a draft pick at 16th overall . Now miss by a mile, fall to (or in their case, stay in) the bottom 10, draft in the top 10 and possibly net another quality player.

if by game 60, they are not knocking on the door, tank. It seems like the NHL today is a Go/No-GO league. Make the playoffs or miss by a mile...miss by a little may be more damming. See Sens 08-16.

Nope. The development of our current players is more important than drafting new ones. Tanking would be a net negative for the team's overall talent. Players are not robots. They don't have a secret potential rating like in NHL23 that they'll achieve no matter what. A tanking year would be devastating for the franchise.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Actually the easiest and simplest way to check , Is look at wins minus regulation losses.

It works every time you look at standings.
Also aligns with points percentage order.
Last wild card spot is +7, Sens are even.

The easiest way, is go to NHL.com standings, click/tap on Conference
, and click/tap on Points Percentage….. simple.

Ottawa 13th in thier 16 team Confernce, on Pts%

NHL Hockey Standings | NHL.com

The official standings for the National Hockey League.

www.nhl.com

 

[Golden_Jet]

The easiest way, is go to NHL.com standings, click/tap on Conference
, and click/tap on Points Percentage….. simple.

Ottawa 13th in thier 16 team Confernce, on Pts%

NHL Hockey Standings | NHL.com

The official standings for the National Hockey League.

www.nhl.com

Not as easy as looking at win differential, points percentage doesn’t show ground to make up. Other than 0.128 behind, which doesn’t mean much.

7 games behind on point differential is easier and a number that means something.

 

[Beech]

Nope. The development of our current players is more important than drafting new ones. Tanking would be a net negative for the team's overall talent. Players are not robots. They don't have a secret potential rating like in NHL23 that they'll achieve no matter what. A tanking year would be devastating for the franchise.

2022 draft pick, traded away for the cat..we don't know if the cat will be here beyond this year, or possibly 1-2 years if he signs a bridge.
2021 pick is Boucher.. It is unclear if he will become a top 6 forward, or a bottom 6 or a possible bust.

if 2023 is a 14-16. It could mean 3 years of nothing or; 1 or 2, bottom 6 forwards, or a 5-7 d man to Boucher's possible bottom 6.

this burnt them from 2002-2016. There were too many 3 or more bad years in a row. (02-05, 12-14 and 9-11..granted Mika came through in 11, the other 2 did not). So management had better hope this year's possible 14-16 pick has a gem in it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

2022 draft pick, traded away for the cat..we don't know if the cat will be here beyond this year, or possibly 1-2 years if he signs a bridge.
2021 pick is Boucher.. It is unclear if he will become a top 6 forward, or a bottom 6 or a possible bust.

if 2023 is a 14-16. It could mean 3 years of nothing or; 1 or 2, bottom 6 forwards, or a 5-7 d man to Boucher's possible bottom 6.

this burnt them from 2002-2016. There were too many 3 or more bad years in a row. (02-05, 12-14 and 9-11..granted Mika came through in 11, the other 2 did not). So management had better hope this year's possible 14-16 pick has a gem in it.

Yep and that pick will be about 3-4 years away from making team.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Not as easy as looking at win differential, points percentage doesn’t show ground to make up. Other than 0.128 behind, which doesn’t mean much.

7 games behind on point differential is easier and a number that means something.

Points percentage rankings (when clicked/tapped) on NHL.com shows the exact true standings, based on their record of play, vs all other teams, given the nature of the NHL, where at any point during the season all the teams have not played the exact number of games, some may have fewer points in fewer games, and should be looked at as the better team (better record) than teams with a few more points having played more games.

 

[Tuna99]

Nor would I, but I don't see any team taking on Joseph for free.

nick Paul has more goals then Joseph has points. 2 goals for $3 million - bey-bey

 

[bert]

This past summer, Dorion had the best free agent signing in franchise history, the 2nd best trade in franchise history, and locked up what could very well be a top 5 player in the league for 8 years at a reasonable price (who's pick was also acquired via trade).

And y'all want him fired?!?!?

Yes. Giroux was coming here no matter what and there is no way the Debrincat deal is the second best in team history. Especially when we don't know if he is re signing and for how much.

Time for new leadership.

If and when new management decides to hire, to improve the Senators coaching and development ….. they should hire the best available person/people for those positions… if it’s Alfredsson, that’s okay… but to hire someone mainly to curry favour with the fan base is not in the franchises long term interest…. There are positions much less impactful if they want to bring Alfredsson into the organization if he’s interested

He is going to likely be the president. It's going to be impactful.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Points percentage rankings (when clicked/tapped) on NHL.com shows the exact true standings, based on their record of play, vs all other teams, given the nature of the NHL, where at any point during the season all the teams have not played the exact number of games, some may have fewer points in fewer games, and should be looked at as the better team (better record) than teams with a few more points having played more games.

Just Try my method, you’ll like it, and easily see, how much you need to gain on opponent. It also shows true standings.

 

[boxbox]

The easiest way, is go to NHL.com standings, click/tap on Conference
, and click/tap on Points Percentage….. simple.

Ottawa 13th in thier 16 team Confernce, on Pts%

NHL Hockey Standings | NHL.com

The official standings for the National Hockey League.

www.nhl.com

Sens had a terrible November and turned it around in December and are very much in it. 2 or 3 extra wins and we would be right in the mix with the teams slotted between 4th and 8th place in the conference.

Out of all the pro leagues the NHL seems to be most balanced and competitive. THere will be a lot of teams playing meaningful games until game 82. Columbus , Chicago and Anaheim are the only teams who can be somewhat written off but all other teams are still 10 points within each other. Its very doable for the Sens to win 55-60% of their remaining games. When games get tighter special teams will be determine outcomes of game more so than now and it seems our PP is no fluke and the PK is shaping up slowly, I like our chances.

 

[boxbox]

If and when new management decides to hire, to improve the Senators coaching and development ….. they should hire the best available person/people for those positions… if it’s Alfredsson, that’s okay… but to hire someone mainly to curry favour with the fan base is not in the franchises long term interest…. There are positions much less impactful if they want to bring Alfredsson into the organization if he’s interested

people actually want Alfie as a coach and will be OK with it ? he has zero coaching experience lol playing and coaching are not the same thing ...oh god

 

[Icelevel]

We let Curtis Douglas walk. Toronto picked him up and just traded him for 24 yr old 6’2” dman Conor Timmins.
He has 8 pts in 10 games so far.

Just sayin.

 

[Micklebot]

We let Curtis Douglas walk. Toronto picked him up and just traded him for 24 yr old 6’2” dman Conor Timmins.
He has 8 pts in 10 games so far.

Just sayin.

Did we ever own his rights? I think he just had an AHL contract, I think he was a free agent that we really had no control over.

 

[BondraTime]

Did we ever own his rights? I think he just had an AHL contract, I think he was a free agent that we really had no control over.

He was an AHL player, still is, and will continue to be. Was on an AHL contract then with us, on an NHL deal now, somehow.

Nothing more than an AHL journeymen, Leafs got lucky that Arizona couldn't send him on waivers without losing him. Could have been any warm AHL body going to Arizona

 

[Hale The Villain]

We let Curtis Douglas walk. Toronto picked him up and just traded him for 24 yr old 6’2” dman Conor Timmins.
He has 8 pts in 10 games so far.

Just sayin.

Douglas is irrelevant. Leafs basically got Timmins for free.

Considering how little cap space we will have should we manage to re-sign DeBrincat and with how weak our right-side is I don't know why we weren't willing to throw a similar AHLer or a 7th Arizona's way to acquire Timmins.

Same goes for Kovacevic. 6'4, 208lb RD with 30 points in 62 games in the AHL last year.

 

[Cosmix]

Yes. Giroux was coming here no matter what and there is no way the Debrincat deal is the second best in team history. Especially when we don't know if he is re signing and for how much.

Time for new leadership.


He is going to likely be the president. It's going to be impactful.

President of PR. Alfie has no experience managing a large sports organization so he will not be the top guy.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Douglas is irrelevant. Leafs basically got Timmins for free.

Considering how little cap space we will have should we manage to re-sign DeBrincat and with how weak our right-side is I don't know why we weren't willing to throw a similar AHLer or a 7th Arizona's way to acquire Timmins.

Same goes for Kovacevic. 6'4, 208lb RD with 30 points in 62 games in the AHL last year.

Once it gets pointed out that he wasn’t an asset the Sens let go he becomes ‘irrelevant’.

Classic dude. He was always irrelevant, you just got robbed of an opportunity to bash the Sens lol.

Consider: we may not want to pick up another marginal RD to add to what we already have. There is zero point when we have two kids to try.

Unless it’s a clear long term upgrade there is zero point in these types of deals. You’d be roasting the team after a trade like this if the guy faltered.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Once it gets pointed out that he wasn’t an asset the Sens let go he becomes ‘irrelevant’.

Classic dude. He was always irrelevant, you just got robbed of an opportunity to bash the Sens lol.

Consider: we may not want to pick up another marginal RD to add to what we already have. There is zero point when we have two kids to try.

Unless it’s a clear long term upgrade there is zero point in these types of deals. You’d be roasting the team after a trade like this if the guy faltered.

Dude what are you talking about.

I don't blame the Sens for letting Douglas walk. He's likely a career AHLer and doesn't have much value if any.

We should be trying out as many young marginal RD as possible considering we have not one but two holes on the right-side next season, and neither JBD or Thomson look like guarantees to hold down those spots.

Leafs and Habs picked up two similar quality cheap young RD for nothing while we sat there playing Zaitsev.