The Fall of Pierre

[Wallet Inspector]

If Pierre gets fired he only has himself to blame for not canning DJ back in November.

 

[KingAlfie11]

Our standards are just not the same here. You can see the narrative already building up : we missed the playoffs because of goaltending and injuries (like if other teams don’t face the same challenges)

We don’t aim for excellence and are called out for even having a « loser mentality » for demanding it (how is that even possible lol?). Being satisfied with what has been way below mediocrity is exactly why we are about to bring back Dorion and DJ’s coaching staff… There was absolutely no reason for this rebuild to be at least 7 years given the assets wealth at the beginning

Something is clearly wrong

At least there’s hope that new ownership will have a different vision and will want to start with a clean slate

After a scorching earth rebuild going on 6 years now, I demand nothing short of excellence. I will spend spend spend when that starts happening

Rebuilds are not an exact science, Njd has made the playoffs 1 time in the last 11 years before this season, Carolina missed the playoffs 9 seasons in a row before they got it right, Toronto made the playoff 1 time in a 11 year span, the Oilers missed the playoff for a span of 11 years in a row, so what I'm trying to say here is that building a playoff team takes a long time, you don't build a winning team in 5 or 6 years

 

[boxbox]

NO, I think you are confused. I didn't say that a player that plays in the top half of the roster is elite. I said that I think someone else is using that definition, not me. Someone else mentioned the word elite - not me. I don't consider Debrincat as elite. McDavid is elite. Makar is an elite offensive defenseman. Just because you play in the top half of a team's roster does not make you elite imho. I have no idea where you came up with the idea or where you think I said that. A player who is tied for 70th is scoring for skaters is not elite imo. There are very few (a handful) "elite" players (imo).

The only point (in my posts) I made with regards to our prospects is that I don't see which of our prospects could fill the role of Debrincat or Giroux when they depart. That's it = full stop. I made no other point and somebody else brought the concept (or word) elite into this conversation.

I'm leaving this conversation. It's getting too bizarre to continue. I think some people just like to argue or play gotcha for the sake of it. Cheers

Debricant might not be an elite player as a whole but having accumulated the 14th highest goal total (could be easily top 10 if it weren't for a somewhat subpar total this year) in the last 5 seasons has to take his goal scoring ability into strong consideration as being "elite".

Elite by definition is a select few, small number of individuals superior over others in abilities. Where is the line drawn to become elite ? McDavid will most likely go down as the best player ever. At his current level he is the best player the game/league has ever seen; he just had the 15th most productive season ever, numbers totaling the likes of totals last seen 25 years ago.. To be producing at an almost 2 ppg rate in today's NHL is simply ridiculous, even more ridiculous is the fact hes only 26 and seem to be only getting better. McDavid is the gold standard for elite atm and stands alone IMO with no comparable .

 

[Tuna99]

Rebuilds are not an exact science, Njd has made the playoffs 1 time in the last 11 years before this season, Carolina missed the playoffs 9 seasons in a row before they got it right, Toronto made the playoff 1 time in a 11 year span, the Oilers missed the playoff for a span of 11 years in a row, so what I'm trying to say here is that building a playoff team takes a long time, you don't build a winning team in 5 or 6 years

Wouldn’t you go into the rebuild emulating a model of a successful team who won a Cup - who’s basing any of their dreams off of the nothingness that is Toronto or Carolina Hockey programs?

 

[boxbox]

Our standards are just not the same here. You can see the narrative already building up : we missed the playoffs because of goaltending and injuries (like if other teams don’t face the same challenges)

We don’t aim for excellence and are called out for even having a « loser mentality » for demanding it (how is that even possible lol?). Being satisfied with what has been way below mediocrity is exactly why we are about to bring back Dorion and DJ’s coaching staff… There was absolutely no reason for this rebuild to be at least 7 years given the assets wealth at the beginning

Something is clearly wrong

At least there’s hope that new ownership will have a different vision and will want to start with a clean slate

After a scorching earth rebuild going on 6 years now, I demand nothing short of excellence. I will spend spend spend when that starts happening

Based on what examples is this idea of what a rebuild should look like and how long it should take...etc based on ?

Its a bit more complicated then assuming the accumulation of picks and prospects from years of sucking /trades of former assets, in 5 years time turn into cup contender. Take into consideration what Buffalo, NJ, even Detroit accomplished in the same time with far more opportunities, before declaring how crap everything is ????

What do you expect ? a 50 point jump in standings year to year ? You really don't see the improvements ?

- wins 39 vs 33
- 6 points out of playoffs vs 27 points
- goal differential -10 vs -39
- GF 261 vs 227
- GA similar , on the PK/shorthanded 49 times more
- top 10 PP vs worst 10 PP

I am not naive or ignorant as I am well aware improvements are required & additional work needs to be done, for this team to deliver results on the level meeting the criteria required from cup contending teams.

You are correct in that other teams face problems, some of them very similar to this teams. I don't believe many are of the idea no other teams face problems only the Sens do. Its the impact on the team those problems create. Suggesting missing Norris for the year as a reason for missing the playoffs and "just another excuse" would be an accurate assumption if Norris was "just another player", except hes not. The importance and impact of having a player like that in vs out the line up is apparently worth almost 8 million dollars a year.

Goalie situation alike, was there ever a team that had 5 different starters and went on to have a successful season ? The goalie situation was a circus this year likes of which you'll probably not see again.

 

[KingAlfie11]

Wouldn’t you go into the rebuild emulating a model of a successful team who won a Cup - who’s basing any of their dreams off of the nothingness that is Toronto or Carolina Hockey programs?

Good point! But I'm just talking about making the playoff here but yeah it's better to follow the Tampa and Colorado blueprint.

 

[Big Muddy]

And now we’re talking about debrincat one sub bar season lol.

And even then. If a team has a prospect who can score 27 and 39 assists… that’s a top tier prospect/elite prospect lol.
Jarventie is the only guy we have who I think can play in the top 6 if everything goes right. He isn’t a top tier prospect at the moment. But if he blows up next year in the AHL he will be.

If you had a bunch of prospects that could put up debrincat level numbers (to you, not elite) then that’s not a below average prospect pool that’s an unbelievable prospect pool.

You need an elite prospect to step in and replace debrincat.


I get it’s all business but amazing one one season can do to the perception of a player.

Instill remember in January reading about “debrincat for Jack Matier”

Your use or understanding of the word "elite" is unique. I don't consider Debrincat as an "elite" player. He is a good player, or even a very good player, but not elite like a McDavid (or Makar) or other generational players (Crosby, Ovechkin) would be.

At any rate, if I understood your post (it was difficult to figure out parts of it), I think we agree that we don't have a prospect that could fill the shoes of Debrincat. I can't see how further discussion on this will have any merit

 

[Big Muddy]

Giroux was signed as a FA, he was singed to fill a need/void. Hes here for one more year so his replacement can very well materialize in that time.

Debrincat is 25 years old, he is just entering the prime of his career. Ottawa didn't give up any prospects for him, only drafts picks. I have no issue when a team gives up draft picks to land a player like Debrincant; the chances any one of those draft picks shapes into a top tier goal scorer as AD has been last few seasons are very slim. Draft picks/ don't come with a result guarantee. Good scouting, picks # of selection .. do improve the chances of success but neither guarantees them. A rebuilding team does not make trades similar to this one without the intention of wanting to keep player. I would not worry too much about his replacement neither; more then one possible option available to get one if it comes to that

Any rebuilding team entering the latter final stages of the rebuild will gradually see the number of quality prospects decrease. Its a common cycle among prospects pools...team sucks/high draft picks/ better talent....team gets better/low draft picks/ less draft picks due to trades....the lack of currently available top prospects in the pool is by no means a gloom and doom scenario , more so a positive indicator of the pools high graduation rate amongst its prospects

You post covers a lot of subjects that are not directly related to anything I said in my post. You seem to feel the need to defend the move to acquire Debrincat which I said nothing about.

In general, you seem defensive. Its obvious that our top prospects have graduated, so I don't see the need to point out the obvious.

All I said was that Debrincat & Giroux could (depends on what happens) need replacing in the not too distant future. Context is important so going back and reading the various posts especially the one that started this debate will help & will narrow the focus down to what I was actually saying versus the tangents that you have identified. Another poster said we really don't need any top level prospects now, to which I replied we could certainly use them potentially in the near future to replace Debrincat & Giroux, and that having top level prospects is always good and never really a bad thing or problem.

 

[Knave]

Based on what examples is this idea of what a rebuild should look like and how long it should take...etc based on ?

Its a bit more complicated then assuming the accumulation of picks and prospects from years of sucking /trades of former assets, in 5 years time turn into cup contender. Take into consideration what Buffalo, NJ, even Detroit accomplished in the same time with far more opportunities, before declaring how crap everything is ????

What do you expect ? a 50 point jump in standings year to year ? You really don't see the improvements ?

- wins 39 vs 33
- 6 points out of playoffs vs 27 points
- goal differential -10 vs -39
- GF 261 vs 227
- GA similar , on the PK/shorthanded 49 times more
- top 10 PP vs worst 10 PP

I am not naive or ignorant as I am well aware improvements are required & additional work needs to be done, for this team to deliver results on the level meeting the criteria required from cup contending teams.

You are correct in that other teams face problems, some of them very similar to this teams. I don't believe many are of the idea no other teams face problems only the Sens do. Its the impact on the team those problems create. Suggesting missing Norris for the year as a reason for missing the playoffs and "just another excuse" would be an accurate assumption if Norris was "just another player", except hes not. The importance and impact of having a player like that in vs out the line up is apparently worth almost 8 million dollars a year.

Goalie situation alike, was there ever a team that had 5 different starters and went on to have a successful season ? The goalie situation was a circus this year likes of which you'll probably not see again.

The NJD went from 63 points to 112 points this year.

Before COVID the New York Islanders went from 80 to 103 points for the 2017-2018 to 2018-2019 season.

And I'm sure we can find many more teams with substantial improvement as opposed to a modest 10-15 points in year 6 of a f***ing rebuild.

It feels like people are looking every possible way to make excuses for the management and coaching of this team.

Teams like Edmonton or Buffalo or Detroit sucking for 6+ years is not the norm. I don't understand why people are so fixated on pretending this is normal. It's not. What makes our situation particularly frustrating is we have had the same GM. At least Edmonton, Buffalo and Detroit change it up when it's not working.

I'm tired of moral victories and not playoff victories. I'm tired of minor improvements when we are a cap team now.

 

[Xspyrit]

Rebuilds are not an exact science, Njd has made the playoffs 1 time in the last 11 years before this season, Carolina missed the playoffs 9 seasons in a row before they got it right, Toronto made the playoff 1 time in a 11 year span, the Oilers missed the playoff for a span of 11 years in a row, so what I'm trying to say here is that building a playoff team takes a long time, you don't build a winning team in 5 or 6 years

You're naming some of the worst rebuilds in recent history, do we really want to be compared with them? I don't want to be the Sabres/Devils or the Leafs/Oilers of the past!!!

If done properly, rebuilds shouldn't take 6-10 years anymore. Players have an ELC, 4 RFA years and that's it : UFA. It became a youth league more than ever

Look at the Kings for example. Won their last Cup in 2013-14 then missed the playoffs, then qualified but lost in first round, then missed again to then qualify and lose in first round again. Then they missed the playoffs 3 years in a row and then made them last year with 99 pts (taking the Oilers to 7 games) and made them again this season with 104 pts. That's more what modern rebuilds should take.

Of course, it entirely depends what you start with, your "assets wealth". No team was even close to what the Senators started with.

Based on what examples is this idea of what a rebuild should look like and how long it should take...etc based on ?

Its a bit more complicated then assuming the accumulation of picks and prospects from years of sucking /trades of former assets, in 5 years time turn into cup contender. Take into consideration what Buffalo, NJ, even Detroit accomplished in the same time with far more opportunities, before declaring how crap everything is ????

What do you expect ? a 50 point jump in standings year to year ? You really don't see the improvements ?

- wins 39 vs 33
- 6 points out of playoffs vs 27 points
- goal differential -10 vs -39
- GF 261 vs 227
- GA similar , on the PK/shorthanded 49 times more
- top 10 PP vs worst 10 PP

I am not naive or ignorant as I am well aware improvements are required & additional work needs to be done, for this team to deliver results on the level meeting the criteria required from cup contending teams.

You are correct in that other teams face problems, some of them very similar to this teams. I don't believe many are of the idea no other teams face problems only the Sens do. Its the impact on the team those problems create. Suggesting missing Norris for the year as a reason for missing the playoffs and "just another excuse" would be an accurate assumption if Norris was "just another player", except hes not. The importance and impact of having a player like that in vs out the line up is apparently worth almost 8 million dollars a year.

Goalie situation alike, was there ever a team that had 5 different starters and went on to have a successful season ? The goalie situation was a circus this year likes of which you'll probably not see again.

The problem some posters might have is they are not starting with the information I am starting with. It's been analyzed and presented several times. So I'll just copy/paste a post that I have made almost 2 years ago :

"I think you're confusing your very specific unique approach to the whole fanbase's. This is a business of results, fans WANT to see their team win. They don't want their team to suck for a decade or even be stuck in mediocrity.

You also seem to be missing something very important here... there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between this Senators rebuild and an usual NHL rebuild because they had the LUXURY to trade STAR players in their prime which brought a MUCH BETTER return than usual

Tim Stutzle (Sharks 3rd OA pick in 2020)
Josh Norris
Rudolfs Balcers
Mads Sogaard (traded up : Panthers 2019 2nd + Penguins 2019 3rd from Brassard/Karlsson trades)
Zack Ostapchuk (Sharks 2021 2nd round pick)
Leevi Meriläinen (Jets 2020 3rd round pick from DeMelo)
Chris Tierney (not a prospect but was 24 y/o when acquired and could have returned "futures")
Erik Brannstrom
Egor Sokolov (Stars 2020 2nd round pick)
Lassi Thomson
Vitaly Abramov
Jonathan Davidsson
Ridly Greig (Islanders 2020 1st round pick)
Islanders 2020 2nd round pick (used to trade up to get Tyler Kleven)
Anthony Duclair (not a prospect but was 23 y/o when acquired and could have returned "futures")
Jackets 2020 2nd round pick (used to acquire Matt Murray)
Jackets 2021 2nd round pick (used to acquire Derek Stepan)
Jacob Bernard-Docker
Filip Gustavsson
Jonny Tychonick
Jackets 2020 3rd round pick (used with Cody Ceci to acquire Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev)

And you can add to that list the prospects that were already in the pool when the rebuild started : Chabot, Batherson, Formenton, White, Paul, etc)


I mean, how much time do Dorion NEED to be able to build a competitive team with the crazy WEALTH he has inherited?"

Of course it would have helped if we targeted better prospects or made some better picks but thankfully the EK and Pageau returns look like they'll literally save this whole rebuild on their own

This was in response to this :

"Patience, and ceasing to add personal expectations on the team that go beyond the stated organizational expectations for the season, would go a long way to assuage some of the HFSens fan misery.

Much of it is self inflicted and pointless."

The funny thing is the actual narrative is exactly the same as it was. Time is flying and it seems that some people are not aware of that

There is a GIGANTIC difference between our rebuild and the Red Wings for example. Even the Habs who started with considerably less. With the people they still have in place, I doubt they'll still suck in 4 years.

 

[Xspyrit]

Can anyone give me ONE reason why WE HAD TO CONTINUE SUCKING in 2020-21, or 2021-22? Yes the team looked better this season but still came up short and was basically eliminated after November.

 

[PlayOn]

Can anyone give me ONE reason why WE HAD TO CONTINUE SUCKING in 2020-21, or 2021-22? Yes the team looked better this season but still came up short and was basically eliminated after November.

Well, we had no money. I think there are ways you can speed up a rebuild, but you need to have money to do so. And yes Pierre gave out bad contracts, but we were still spending very little relative to the remainder of the NHL.

Teams like LA or New York or Toronto or anyone that rebuilt quickly went and added expensive core players after a couple of years.

 

[Xspyrit]

Well, we had no money. I think there are ways you can speed up a rebuild, but you need to have money to do so. And yes Pierre gave out bad contracts, but we were still spending very little relative to the remainder of the NHL.

Teams like LA or New York or Toronto or anyone that rebuilt quickly went and added expensive core players after a couple of years.

If we had no money... how do you explain that we spent 42 M$ like this?

Stepan 6.5 AAV
Murray 6.25 AAV
Dadonov 5.0 AAV
White 4.75 AAV
Anisimov 4.55 AAV
Zaitsev 4.5 AAV
Gudbranson 4.0 AAV
Tierney 3.5 AAV
Dzingel 3.375 AAV

Some fans are still blinded by the splash moves but the way Dorion sabotages his own teams is by a culmination of a lot of bad moves.

 

[PlayOn]

If we had no money... how do you explain that we spent 42 M$ like this?

Stepan 6.5 AAV
Murray 6.25 AAV
Dadonov 5.0 AAV
White 4.75 AAV
Anisimov 4.55 AAV
Zaitsev 4.5 AAV
Gudbranson 4.0 AAV
Tierney 3.5 AAV
Dzingel 3.375 AAV

Some fans are still blinded by the splash moves but the way Dorion sabotages his own teams is by a culmination of a lot of bad moves.

Actual cash in 2020-2021

Stepan - 2.0
Murray - 4.0
Dadonov - 3.5
White - 4.0
Anisimov - 1.5
Zaitsev - 4.5
Gudbranson - 3.0
Tierney - 2.8
Dzingel - 2.5

So really, we spent 28 mil like this, not 42. And that's kind of the point, this was a time where almost everyone we acquired or signed had a higher cap hit than they made in actual salary - we were going bargain bin hunting. Only Murray and White were "core", and we can all agree those were bad contracts. The rest was just Dorion filling the roster with stop gaps.

If you want to add legitimate players to your roster, you need to give up term, assets and/or dollars. We weren't willing to trade significant picks/players/prospects at the time for obvious reasons, no one wanted to come here, and we had no money. So which players were we supposed to target?

I think Dorion could've done a better job at maybe adding a player or two along the way, however, if we weren't going to spend properly (and we weren't, we were last in the NHL in spending in 2020-2021) there was no point in trying to get out of the rebuild. Giving those minutes to Norris, Batherson, Stutzle etc was probably more beneficial in the long run anyway.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

same discussion.... same time

Management - GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

I wish we had taken JJ Peterka instead of Jarventie. Peterka would look good playing with Pinto.

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