Prospect Info: The 2016 Draft Thread [Draft Lottery April 30th]

[HeavyHitter99]

i think if bean keeps up his production he will end up a late 1st rounder.

do you think sean day goes in the 2nd? i think he goes early 3rd and i hope the oilers grab him with one of their 3 picks. there is jut so many tools to work with with that kid his skating is phenominal and his skill level is great....its the effort nad decision making that troubles him. if we could reel him in and figure out his head he could be a complete steal.

Im hoping for Sawchenko and Day in the 3rd

I completely agree on Bean, he's bounced up and down for me as a late 1st to early 2nd. His offense is fantastic and could get him drafted as early as 15-20th.

I would consider taking a risk on Day in the 3rd though there's a chance he goes late 2nd. He could also be one of those guys that everyone is so afraid to draft that he falls to say the 5th. His work ethic has not been good enough and he has struggled with dealing with his brother. Since we have 3 3rds, he's worth the risk there imo.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Hit the nail on the head. Skating and low hockey IQ is the 2 biggest reasons players fail. You could have size and tools like MPS, but if you have no IQ you wont get far. Similarly, you can have good hockey IQ like Musil, but if you cant skate, you wont make it

Tools like "Shot, release, truculene, dekeing" are all nice things to have. But players build on them (Schremp) will fail more often

Smart players always find a way to succeed

You guys want to know what the #1 thing scouts look for in a player? Obviously IQ and skating are major ones but the biggest thing is compete level. If a player is very driven and is a hard worker then they will succeed with out being the smartest or quickest. See Milan Lucic in that regard, 60 point NHLer that isn't the most skilled, fastest or smartest. But he is an extremely hard worker. You guys wouldn't believe how much stock scouts put into competitiveness, drive, tenacity and work ethic.

Rob Schremp could have easily succeeded in the NHL if he had more drive and would have admitted his faults. He was too high on himself, wouldn't improve his faults like skating and never had much of an NHL career.

 

[CornKicker]

100% when im picking players for teams i start with players that can skate and then i look at the players that fight for the puck every shift, you cant teach compete. i feel like i can teach anything else.

 

[cordlessphone]

You guys want to know what the #1 thing scouts look for in a player? Obviously IQ and skating are major ones but the biggest thing is compete level. If a player is very driven and is a hard worker then they will succeed with out being the smartest or quickest. See Milan Lucic in that regard, 60 point NHLer that isn't the most skilled, fastest or smartest. But he is an extremely hard worker. You guys wouldn't believe how much stock scouts put into competitiveness, drive, tenacity and work ethic.

Rob Schremp could have easily succeeded in the NHL if he had more drive and would have admitted his faults. He was too high on himself, wouldn't improve his faults like skating and never had much of an NHL career.

Milan Lucic has IQ that is at least adequate. An example of a player that is truly IQ deficient is Yakupov, and he has plenty of compete. You absolutely need both IQ and compete to be an effective NHL player.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Milan Lucic has IQ that is at least adequate. An example of a player that is truly IQ deficient is Yakupov, and he has plenty of compete. You absolutely need both IQ and compete to be an effective NHL player.

Well obviously and I didn't say otherwise. Obviously you need to be smart to make it but you need a great work ethic too. If Yak didn't at least play competitive/driven hockey we would have given up on him by now. His passion and compete his keeping him alive with us.

 

[Zaddy]

100% when im picking players for teams i start with players that can skate and then i look at the players that fight for the puck every shift, you cant teach compete. i feel like i can teach anything else.

You can't teach hockey IQ IMO. You can show players what to do and stuff I guess but if the instincts aren't there it's a lost cause. "Compete" is kind of a funny thing. It's not necessarily something you have or you don't. Some guys have started out being lazy but then the light bulb has switched on and they realized that they need to put in the work. I think in terms of "compete" the most important thing is for a young player to have good veterans around him to actually show him what it means (and what it takes) to be an NHLer. That's generally when most players change, when they realize that what they've been doing hasn't been good enough.

It's a bit of a maturation process. Some kids get that instilled into them from an early age due to their parents whereas other kids have it easier and doesn't learn until later in life. I think, as I said, it's mostly about role models and having guys around you that show you the way. I'm pretty sure Connor McDavid left a lasting mark on some of the guys on the Erie Otters in terms of work ethic. Hard not to up your own game when you see a guy that talented work incredibly hard day in and day out.

 

[cordlessphone]

Well obviously and I didn't say otherwise. Obviously you need to be smart to make it but you need a great work ethic too. If Yak didn't at least play competitive/driven hockey we would have given up on him by now. His passion and compete his keeping him alive with us.

I agree. If we're talking about drafting players in later rounds, I think IQ and compete are a must. Obviously there is going to be some concern with any player drafted after the first round, and I think we should be targeting players that are deficient in one physical aspect (skating or size/strength, not both) or have limited data (playing in a weaker league, injuries, or lack of opportunity to play key roles).

It seems like the late round picks that succeed fit that mould, ie. slower guys that improve their skating, smaller guys that prove they can overcome their lack of size, late bloomers, etc. I may be wrong, but it seems that players that lack compete or IQ and succeed in the NHL are few and far between.

Also russians and goalies, but those are unique situations.

 

[Aceboogie]

You guys want to know what the #1 thing scouts look for in a player? Obviously IQ and skating are major ones but the biggest thing is compete level. If a player is very driven and is a hard worker then they will succeed with out being the smartest or quickest. See Milan Lucic in that regard, 60 point NHLer that isn't the most skilled, fastest or smartest. But he is an extremely hard worker. You guys wouldn't believe how much stock scouts put into competitiveness, drive, tenacity and work ethic.

Rob Schremp could have easily succeeded in the NHL if he had more drive and would have admitted his faults. He was too high on himself, wouldn't improve his faults like skating and never had much of an NHL career.

I dunno about compete level, thats a buzz word type thing. 90% of prospects/players have indistinguishable compete level. 5% of players have noticeably poor compete levels (Schremp) and 5% have noticeably higher (Gallagher Lucic)

If you are going to draft players with compete level in mind, I think its a fruitless endeavour. Its really, really tough to separate players on that. Some players are just really smart players and can suceed due to skill and IQ. Some bad players in junior do well because of compete level, but thats all they have. Once they hit AHL or pro hockey, compete level only takes you so far

Lucic and Gallagher had apparant skill, compete level just pushed them over the edge a bit

I think you go into the draft looking for good skaters and high IQ players. Once you find them, you look for the skills that seperate them that are like an add on. Lastly, you look at compete level. If player is a gamer, its another benefit and credit to them. If player does not, its a big dock on their scouting report

And like poster said above, compete level can be taught to a degree. When these kids are 17, they have 4 years of Bantam/Midget where they torched the league. They didnt really have to try so compete level is not as high. Guys that have higher compete level in junior tend to have it because they werent as good coming up, so got their on compete mainly. But its a maturity thing. As long as you get the sense player is willingly to put in more effort in future its all good. The skill guy can learn to apply himself in other areas

 

[KarmaPolice]

The whole time reading this post I got a vibe that you don't follow prospects much (no offense). The bolded kind of proves my point. He is the opposite of a complete dman. He makes sweet passes and he has excellent vision but he doesn't skate well, he is on the small side, he can't play physical and at times he looks like Justin Schultz in the defensive zone. There's a reason he is being ranked end of the 1st to 2nd round. Stats look nice especially to those that don't actually watch him but he has major risks. Could he pay off? Yes. Will he be the best dman in the draft? I highly doubt it. Will he ever be considered a complete defender? Hell no.

Anyone who thinks he could be ready for next season hasn't watched him. As for Button well he usually goes off the board with his rankings and he is known to not actually watch players live.

Also Bean plays on the left side quite often just fyi.

He does need work in the D-zone, but I'd say that for most Dman prospect coming out of junior. And I don't take offense from anyone I don't know, so no worries. I would need to respect that person first for his opinion to really matter to me, so only friends and family can really offend me, and even then it's pretty hard. Cheers.

Day is a waste of a pick. Not sure why you'd have any interest in him. Are you sure YOU watch junior players? LOL
Kidding. Kind of.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

He does need work in the D-zone, but I'd say that for most Dman prospect coming out of junior. And I don't take offense from anyone I don't know, so no worries. I would need to respect that person first for his opinion to really matter to me, so only friends and family can really offend me, and even then it's pretty hard. Cheers.

Day is a waste of a pick. Not sure why you'd have any interest in him. Are you sure YOU watch junior players? LOL
Kidding. Kind of.

Bean is a disaster in his own end much of the time. To say he needs to work on his defensive game is an understatement.

As for Day, we have 3 3rd rounders so that's why we can afford to take 1 risk. Any 230 lbs defender that skates like him isn't a waste of a mid round pick.

And yep I'm sure I watch junior hockey, it's my job seen all these players live.

 

[Aceboogie]

Id easily take a stab at Day. Those tools are tremendous. I know his IQ is questioned (and I was just harping on importance of IQ), his tools are just so intriguing. Hard to find that in a 3rd rounder

 

[HeavyHitter99]

I dunno about compete level, thats a buzz word type thing. 90% of prospects/players have indistinguishable compete level. 5% of players have noticeably poor compete levels (Schremp) and 5% have noticeably higher (Gallagher Lucic)

If you are going to draft players with compete level in mind, I think its a fruitless endeavour. Its really, really tough to separate players on that. Some players are just really smart players and can suceed due to skill and IQ. Some bad players in junior do well because of compete level, but thats all they have. Once they hit AHL or pro hockey, compete level only takes you so far

Lucic and Gallagher had apparant skill, compete level just pushed them over the edge a bit

I think you go into the draft looking for good skaters and high IQ players. Once you find them, you look for the skills that seperate them that are like an add on. Lastly, you look at compete level. If player is a gamer, its another benefit and credit to them. If player does not, its a big dock on their scouting report

And like poster said above, compete level can be taught to a degree. When these kids are 17, they have 4 years of Bantam/Midget where they torched the league. They didnt really have to try so compete level is not as high. Guys that have higher compete level in junior tend to have it because they werent as good coming up, so got their on compete mainly. But its a maturity thing. As long as you get the sense player is willingly to put in more effort in future its all good. The skill guy can learn to apply himself in other areas

Hey I don't necessarily disagree with you I'm just stating that people don't realize how much compete and drive factors into scouting. As someone who works in the industry (I won't name with who) and have close friends that work for ISS, Future Considerations, Red Line, the Leafs, the Ducks, the Canucks and the Wings, I can tell you that it is an extremely important aspect in scouting. Speed and skill are the obvious major things to scout as you need it to be successful.

From personal experience, when I first got into the scouting game I remember my first reports I did for my boss. He told me I broke down the player's skills very well except I didn't mention much about his tenacity or drive. Soon after that we had a meeting with all the newer scouts on how important Competitiveness is.

Just my 2 cents

Edit: I just wanted to note that I'm not saying we should just draft hard working plugs. I actually hope the Oilers draft more skilled players in all the rounds after the 1st.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Bean is a disaster in his own end much of the time. To say he needs to work on his defensive game is an understatement.

As for Day, we have 3 3rd rounders so that's why we can afford to take 1 risk. Any 230 lbs defender that skates like him isn't a waste of a mid round pick.

And yep I'm sure I watch junior hockey, it's my job seen all these players live.

Okay, then you've seen Bean more than I have. He honestly didn't look that bad to me defensively, but you seem to have more experience watching him. I'll try to get some more Calgary games in, and focus on his D play more. Don't forget that we do need a PP QB, and he's great at that. I know we all want another Pronger, total complete package, but that might prove exceedingly hard for Chia to pull off. I'll hope for a Hall for Petro deal, but not holding my breath.

Day I could see retiring in a couple years because of a lack of interest. I don't think his head is in the game, and from what I've seen of him, it shows on the ice. I'd maybe risk a 6th or 7th, but with the great prospects we got last year with our 4th and 5th rounders (especially Bear who could be a complete steal), I'd like to see what more magic Chia's scouting can pull off. Have zero faith in Day, and think it's a waste of a pick, but it's really 'who the hell knows' I guess. But I just couldn't see him working out here, anyway. For all his glimpses of brilliance, there are just as many instances of disinterest in the play and laziness. He'd get boo'd out of town, a la Tom Poti pretty quickly, IMO, even if he were to ever make the team. This draft is weaker than last year, so maybe expecting the same magic in the mid rounds is going to be hard to ask for. If things really start to look thin, I'd be okay using a 5th, but think that would be as high as I'd go. For the 3rds, if Day is the best option, we should be packaging them and trading them for a prospect further along. Just no Reinhart's please.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Id easily take a stab at Day. Those tools are tremendous. I know his IQ is questioned (and I was just harping on importance of IQ), his tools are just so intriguing. Hard to find that in a 3rd rounder

Not his IQ. His IQ is very high. His skills and hockey IQ are all tremendous. No, it's his competitiveness and desire that is in serious question. His heart. He's another Tom Poti. When am I ever wrong on Dmen? Write it down. He's going to be another heartless wonder.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Okay, then you've seen Bean more than I have. He honestly didn't look that bad to me defensively, but you seem to have more experience watching him. I'll try to get some more Calgary games in, and focus on his D play more. Don't forget that we do need a PP QB, and he's great at that. I know we all want another Pronger, total complete package, but that might prove exceedingly hard for Chia to pull off. I'll hope for a Hall for Petro deal, but not holding my breath.

Day I could see retiring in a couple years because of a lack of interest. I don't think his head is in the game, and from what I've seen of him, it shows on the ice. I'd maybe risk a 6th or 7th, but with the great prospects we got last year with our 4th and 5th rounders (especially Bear who could be a complete steal), I'd like to see what more magic Chia's scouting can pull off. Have zero faith in Day, and think it's a waste of a pick, but it's really 'who the hell knows' I guess. But I just couldn't see him working out here, anyway. For all his glimpses of brilliance, there are just as many instances of disinterest in the play and laziness. He'd get boo'd out of town, a la Tom Poti pretty quickly, IMO, even if he were to ever make the team. This draft is weaker than last year, so maybe expecting the same magic in the mid rounds is going to be hard to ask for. If things really start to look thin, I'd be okay using a 5th, but think that would be as high as I'd go. For the 3rds, if Day is the best option, we should be packaging them and trading them for a prospect further along. Just no Reinhart's please.

I will say though that Bean played his best defensive game the last time I watched him but 1 or 2 out of 15 times this season worries me.

Day is a risk, if the Oilers didn't have 3 3rds I would say I wouldn't take in the 3rd. He came into the season at 240-250 lbs and blatantly over weight and he has had a hard time dealing with his brother going to jail. His brother is his hero for those who don't know. Could he figure it all out? Of course but most people question his drive and work ethic to succeed at the pro level.

 

[Aceboogie]

Not his IQ. His IQ is very high. His skills and hockey IQ are all tremendous. No, it's his competitiveness and desire that is in serious question. His heart. He's another Tom Poti. When am I ever wrong on Dmen? Write it down. He's going to be another heartless wonder.

Hey sign me up for that with a 3rd round pick. 800+ games, 44 point season

Ill take anything actually

 

[lakai17]

Since Matthews was in Europe can we just send him to the AHL to start off?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Hey sign me up for that with a 3rd round pick. 800+ games, 44 point season

Ill take anything actually

Okay, worse than Tom Poti, lol.
He could pay off, but I just think a 3rd is paying too much for that gamble, because I think the odds he comes through are less than 10%. But it's all a matter of opinion.

 

[Aceboogie]

Since Matthews was in Europe can we just send him to the AHL to start off?

You can I believe, however I dont think hell need AHL time. I have slightly above Eichel and already playing in a pro league

 

[Aceboogie]

I think Oilers are going to pick 6th to be honest. The tank wars are strong this year, every bottom feeder sucks and is one a cold streak. Oilers just got McDavid back and will soon get RNH and Klefbom back. Plus the team just looks way improved

 

[lakai17]

I think Oilers are going to pick 6th to be honest. The tank wars are strong this year, every bottom feeder sucks and is one a cold streak. Oilers just got McDavid back and will soon get RNH and Klefbom back. Plus the team just looks way improved

I believe a top 3 but 4th if anything. #1-#4 is my guess.

 

[jeg]

Any chance you think we will take a shot on ronning or kuznetsov in te third? Further more is there value in flipping our 3rds and 5ths for 2nds?

 

[jeg]

I agree think we will land in the 5-9 mark which in one hand I'm disappointed we don't get Laine, but there are a few big wingers that would work great

 

[oil Leaks]

I would not mind drafting Max Jones if the Oilers were picking 9-12

 

[Joey Moss]

I would not mind drafting Max Jones if the Oilers were picking 9-12

9-12?? Our last 16 games we play SJS, MIN, NSH, STL, COL, SJS, LA, ANA.. ARZ twice, who we never play well against. VAN three times, same thing.

I know we're on a bit of a roll, but those are teams we usually beat. I would be shocked if we finished any higher than 3, which means latest we'd pick is 7.