So, I was trying to wait until 25% of the way through the season until making an early assessment of what this team should do. Since the 17th game is Thursday, but then 18 & 19 follow in short order, I had suggested that after 16 games might be a good spot to pause and take stock. That would be now.
Unfortunately, I still don't have a strong feeling either way.
The team is clearly good. 11-5-0 record is currently tied for first in the league. And that has been achieved thus far with our first line centre running cold for most of the stretch, and our 3rd line centre being injured/away for most of the stretch. Lots of promising things coming from elsewhere in the lineup however. Karki's production being probably the most obvious boost. But Allard has been almost equally as impressive. Beck has integrated seamlessly into the lineup. And both Cloutier and Mignosa seem to be making a case to be included in our top 6. Do we have enough firepower in the forwards to be a true contender? Our scoring depth seems to be pretty good, but I think we might be a T-3 winger short.
Defensively, I made the argument before we traded Toms that we were a T-4 defenseman short of having a group that could contend. When healthy, our T-4 is solid. If we have an injury in our T-4 then I am not convinced that any of Virgilio, Brodie, or Evans are ready to step in. However, we will likely have lots of opportunity through the World Juniors to see what this might look like. It will be very interesting to see which players get the opportunity, and what they make of it.
In goal, it seems like we might be settling in to a more stable pairing. Miller has been pretty good in his more recent starts. Schenkel has also been playing pretty well. Is this pairing good enough to contend? Right now I feel like goal is potentially the position where we are least likely to need to add, but as we continue to evaluate from now until the new year, that may change.
So, at these early stages in the season, I find us most likely 2 additions away from being a true contender.
If we were to spend the assets for those additions this year, the challenge would be how to recoup those assets? Gibson should be moved 100% next season. In addition we would have some pretty good OAs to move next year (Allard, Carlisle, Schenkel, Fantino). Unfortunately, it's just not enough - even if we moved all of them - to restock completely and end up with a slight surplus in picks to get ready for another run 2 years from now when Martin is 18. And that is without any potential addition at goal this season.
It doesn't mean I don't think we should go all in, and it also doesn't mean we should - it just means I think if we go all in then it pushes back our next potential window by a year, having to trade away some of the '06 group and not contending again until Martin is 19. Still lots of time to evaluate if this is the right group to push our chips into the middle with.