Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[The Nemesis]

Chapman is the best defensive 3B there is so doubt it

It's not a sure thing anymore. his D has been slipping for the last few years even before he was acquired by the Jays. It's still high end but you can make the case for Ke'Bryan Hayes or Ryan McMahon pretty easily.

 

[landy92mack29]

That is objectively false

it's not

 

[mikeyz]

1) I never said you said they were good. I said that they weren't good enough that replacing them will be difficult

2) the point isn't that the guys they replaced them with are worse. The point is that the team has a number of guys who had uncharacteristic down years last year. Unless all of them defy convention and do the same thing this year, their improvements will easily help offset any offensive differences between those 3 departing players and who replaces them (which won't be that big. Belt and Turner should be fairly close and as I said Merrifield and Chapman were ass at the plate far more than they were good)

3) I haven't been talking to you. You've been having this conversation with like 4 different posters, none of which have been me. Which should be obvious considering I don't have the default puck logo avatar that those others do.

4) Some of the guys in the offence can be awful without the offence as a whole being terrible. It's not that mind-blowing of a concept.

5) Accusing me of warping the facts to fit my narrative is rich when your whole thing has been saying opinions of questionable validity, actually using the word "facts" to describe them as if that makes them more concrete, and misrepresenting what others are saying so that you can argue the points more easily is rich.

Lol yeah. I noticed that you weren't one of them who I've been engaging with on this subject and you were one of the first. But, even still. My point still stands. The offense was a big reason why this team went nowhere last year. And again, I will reiterate. I think we can all agree that in baseball, pitching generally wins championships right? Well. The Blue Jays had arguably the best starting rotation last year and yet I didn't hear one single person suggest that they we're going to win the World series. Why is that? What's the common denominator here?

 

[The Nemesis]

Someone check with Gerrit Cole if Kirk rounded the bases fast enough. Don't want to be offending anyone out there.

 

[Bjindaho]

it's not

It absolutely is. Hayes in Pitt is likely the answer. He's also never been better than Arenado.

 

[canucksfan]

The Jays offense was just above average last year. It wasn’t putrid.

I still think they need another bat but there’s a decent chance they get improvement from players who had downs years last year.

 

[Discoverer]

Lol yeah. I noticed that you weren't one of them who I've been engaging with on this subject and you were one of the first. But, even still. My point still stands. The offense was a big reason why this team went nowhere last year. And again, I will reiterate. I think we can all agree that in baseball, pitching generally wins championships right? Well. The Blue Jays had arguably the best starting rotation last year and yet I didn't hear one single person suggest that they we're going to win the World series. Why is that? What's the common denominator here?

This is a terrible argument. Why is "people didn't think they would win" more indicative of their offensive ability than what they actually did on the field?

 

[beleaf101]

bWAR, which gives him extra D bonuses. Keep in mind that the Jays have multiple Chapman level (or better) defensive 3B.


Otoh, they might not put up the 110wRC+ (which was largely bases empty fueled).

What is better than a gold glove?

 

[Bjindaho]

What is better than a gold glove?

Chapman's D is declining. The question is whether he's even above average next year.

Espinal was actually a better defensive 3b when he played there

 

[Bjindaho]

2 years ago, Chapman wasn't particularly good defensively.

Last year, he was better but with a huge gap between his DRS and his OAA. While some of that is 2B who can't turn two (Biggio and Whit were two of the slowest in baseball), he also made more errors and seems to have lost a bit on his throws.

 

[phillipmike]

For the record if I could get Chapman to sign for $54M, I take that gamble. Seems like a missed opportunity but Chapman isn’t what he used to be.

Some of you guys don’t like advanced stats so here are some conventional ones for you.

Chapman: .240 BA, 17 HRs and 54 RBIs in 140 games
Varsho: .220 BA, 20 HRs and 61 RBIs in 158 games
Jansen: .228 BA, 17 HRs and 53 RBIs in 86 games

Turner: .276 BA, 23 HRs, and 96 RBIs in 145 games
Vogelbach: .233 BA, 13 HRs and 48 RBIs in 104 games

Chapman was brought in to be an elite D, slugger at 3B. His defense was great at times for the Jays but the bat was lacking and to be honest, it has never been great outside of his 2nd and 3rd years.

In the last 4 seasons, Chapman has never hit above .240. In his career he has never had 100 RBIs once and only hit 30+ HRs once in 2019.

After his first 3 season he was on track to bring an MVP player but that hip injury derailed his career.

We got good value out of him. But if he is a slightly above D 3B, with big swing and miss with average to below average power for a 3B, then he isn’t worth $20M a year and the market spoke.

If that all he is, then you’re better off gambling on IKF, Turner and Espinal at 3B until maybe one of Barger, Orelvis or Palmiegiani show they are ready. You can’t keep paying $20M to players, you need cheap, young players with control to step up and let’s hope that happens.

Keep in mind big markets and spenders like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets needed a 3B along with the Giants, Cubs and Seattle, and the best Chapman could get was $54M. Something is wrong here.

 

[trellaine201]

Its all a moot point now. He is gone. I don't really think he will miss or manager

 

[Eyedea]

Lol yeah. I noticed that you weren't one of them who I've been engaging with on this subject and you were one of the first. But, even still. My point still stands. The offense was a big reason why this team went nowhere last year. And again, I will reiterate. I think we can all agree that in baseball, pitching generally wins championships right? Well. The Blue Jays had arguably the best starting rotation last year and yet I didn't hear one single person suggest that they we're going to win the World series. Why is that? What's the common denominator here?

The wheels are spinning but I still haven’t seen you drive your point home yet.

Care to actually bring facts to the table instead of some opinionated puff pieces by MLB “analysts” that literally got all their predictions wrong?

 

[canucksfan]

For the record if I could get Chapman to sign for $54M, I take that gamble. Seems like a missed opportunity but Chapman isn’t what he used to be.

Some of you guys don’t like advanced stats so here are some conventional ones for you.

Chapman: .240 BA, 17 HRs and 54 RBIs in 140 games
Varsho: .220 BA, 20 HRs and 61 RBIs in 158 games
Jansen: .228 BA, 17 HRs and 53 RBIs in 86 games

Turner: .276 BA, 23 HRs, and 96 RBIs in 145 games
Vogelbach: .233 BA, 13 HRs and 48 RBIs in 104 games

Chapman was brought in to be an elite D, slugger at 3B. His defense was great at times for the Jays but the bat was lacking and to be honest, it has never been great outside of his 2nd and 3rd years.

In the last 4 seasons, Chapman has never hit above .240. In his career he has never had 100 RBIs once and only hit 30+ HRs once in 2019.

After his first 3 season he was on track to bring an MVP player but that hip injury derailed his career.

We got good value out of him. But if he is a slightly above D 3B, with big swing and miss with average to below average power for a 3B, then he isn’t worth $20M a year and the market spoke.

If that all he is, then you’re better off gambling on IKF, Turner and Espinal at 3B until maybe one of Barger, Orelvis or Palmiegiani show they are ready. You can’t keep paying $20M to players, you need cheap, young players with control to step up and let’s hope that happens.

Keep in mind big markets and spenders like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets needed a 3B along with the Giants, Cubs and Seattle, and the best Chapman could get was $54M. Something is wrong here.

Hypothetically, if his defense declines this upcoming season and he's at around 85 wRC. He might be less than a 2.0 WAR player. It's not that far-fetched either because his wRC from May to October was 84.

I would have taken him back on a one-year deal. The problem with the opt-outs, if he declines a lot then it's a three-year deal for a bad player.

 

[The Nemesis]

Hypothetically, if his defense declines this upcoming season and he's at around 85 wRC. He might be less than a 2.0 WAR player. It's not that far-fetched either because his wRC from May to October was 84.

I would have taken him back on a one-year deal. The problem with the opt-outs, if he declines a lot then it's a three-year deal for a bad player.

It also seemed like he didn't want to come back that badly. I imagine playing back on the west coast and on real grass was a big lure for him.

 

[The Nemesis]

What is better than a gold glove?

Regular reminder that gold gloves are not a reliable measure of actual ability, as evidenced by that time Rafael Palmiero won a 1b gold glove in a year where he played less than half the season in the field. Or that Derek Jeter won 5 of the things in a career that overlapped heavily with some of the best defensive shortstops in history.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

 

[Eyedea]

If Chapman continues to not know how to pull the ball, then his bat wouldn’t be of any value here anyway.

 

[mikeyz]

The wheels are spinning but I still haven’t seen you drive your point home yet.

Care to actually bring facts to the table instead of some opinionated puff pieces by MLB “analysts” that literally got all their predictions wrong?

I think I drove my point home quite well already. You're just too much of a fanboy to see what it is. Also the way that the Blue Jays offense played last year, especially in that wild card Series against the Twins also drove my point home for me.

Although some of you on here are acting as if they are as potent as the 1927 Yankees lineup was. LOL.

 

[mikeyz]

This is a terrible argument. Why is "people didn't think they would win" more indicative of their offensive ability than what they actually did on the field?

Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean that it's a terrible argument.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

If the pitching holds up they could win 85 games.

Man...even with the disappointing off-season and the hopes of this team more reserved, 85 wins would be very poor for this group. If all they can muster up is 85 wins with the talent on this team, something seriously has to give next off-season.

 

[dredeye]

I think I drove my point home quite well already. You're just too much of a fanboy to see what it is. Also the way that the Blue Jays offense played last year, especially in that wild card Series against the Twins also drove my point home for me.

Although some of you on here are acting as if they are as potent as the 1927 Yankees lineup was. LOL.

I haven’t read one thing any poster has put up stating the jays are a power house, some kind of offensive juggernaut and anything to that making. I have seen some posts of people pointing out projections for where the jays offence is expected to be this season with the current lineup and people posting stats for last season output. None of which are fanboy posts. Saying Kirk/Guerrero/Varsho could/should have better season isn’t out of line or wild to state. I was very negative and vocal about this teams offence last year but I don’t need to argue reality. They hit well. They just didn’t if there were men in scoring position and it makes no sense to anyone why that happened and why it was sustained for so long.

 

[Eyedea]

I think I drove my point home quite well already. You're just too much of a fanboy to see what it is. Also the way that the Blue Jays offense played last year, especially in that wild card Series against the Twins also drove my point home for me.

Although some of you on here are acting as if they are as potent as the 1927 Yankees lineup was. LOL.

You really didn’t lol, and using a two game sample where the Jays outhit their opponents still shows that you don’t really understand the points that we’re making.

The Jays were able to hit last year, however they were historically poor with runners on base. Something as high variance as that shouldn’t be taken at face value and automatically applied to their future performance.

But you can’t seem to grasp that idea and somehow think we’re being as obtuse as you are. Nobody is suggesting we have a murderers’ row lineup…

 

[mikeyz]

You really didn’t lol, and using a two game sample where the Jays outhit their opponents still shows that you don’t really understand the points that we’re making.

The Jays were able to hit last year, however they were historically poor with runners on base. Something as high variance as that shouldn’t be taken at face value and automatically applied to their future performance.

But you can’t seem to grasp that idea and somehow think we’re being as obtuse as you are. Nobody is suggesting we have a murderers’ row lineup…

LMFAO. You mean that "2 game sample size" when it was the playoffs and everything mattered?

And I don't know about you but I think hitting historically poor with runners on base is a problem don't you think? And unfortunately until they prove otherwise that will definitely be taken at face value going into this season. That's just the way it is. Especially considering that pretty much everybody on the coaching staff from last year is back this year. Guermo Martinez specifically.

Edit: Genuine question. What makes you think that they can bounce back and be a top 10 offensive team this year? Because I honestly don’t see it.

 

[Bjindaho]

LMFAO. You mean that "2 game sample size" when it was the playoffs and everything mattered?

And I don't know about you but I think hitting historically poor with runners on base is a problem don't you think? And unfortunately until they prove otherwise that will definitely be taken at face value going into this season. That's just the way it is. Especially considering that pretty much everybody on the coaching staff from last year is back this year. Guermo Martinez specifically.

Edit: Genuine question. What makes you think that they can bounce back and be a top 10 offensive team this year? Because I honestly don’t see it.

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Worst 3 hitters with RISP were Kirk, Espinal (two extremely down years in general and with Vlad, the three guys who seemed to hit everything on the ground with RISP) and Chapman.

Whit was better with RISP but every single player vying for that spot outhit him in those situations.

Belt was below average, but Turner would have been second on the Jays.

Something to keep in mind is that Belt rocked a 44.6% K rate with RISP (31.9 with bases empty) and Chapman had a 30.2%K rate (vs 28.1 with the bases empty). Varsho and Biggio were the ONLY other players to strikeout more than MLB average with RISP and they were both in the 26 range.

The first step to being better with RISP is putting the dang ball in play. Both Turner and IKF struck out significantly less last year and both put up better numbers with RISP (although beating Chapman's numbers wasn't hard)