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Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

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TheTotalPackage said:
Man...even with the disappointing off-season and the hopes of this team more reserved, 85 wins would be very poor for this group. If all they can muster up is 85 wins with the talent on this team, something seriously has to give next off-season.
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85 wins is a decent year. Their lineup isn’t great, especially if Vlad is just average.
 
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mikeyz said:
LMFAO. You mean that "2 game sample size" when it was the playoffs and everything mattered?

And I don't know about you but I think hitting historically poor with runners on base is a problem don't you think? And unfortunately until they prove otherwise that will definitely be taken at face value going into this season. That's just the way it is. Especially considering that pretty much everybody on the coaching staff from last year is back this year. Guermo Martinez specifically.

Edit: Genuine question. What makes you think that they can bounce back and be a top 10 offensive team this year? Because I honestly don’t see it.
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My only hope is that Mattingly does indeed have more say, and is the primary hitting coach.

While the Jays mustered enough offense to look average, it was a disaster last year.

Outside of Bichette, and I guess Jansen, everyone under performed.

They couldn't get a timely hit and squandered an exceptional year of pitching.

I don't see how anyone could argue that. It has been talked about non stop on MLB Network and sports radio all winter
 
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Jojalu said:
My only hope is that Mattingly does indeed have more say, and is the primary hitting coach.

While the Jays mustered enough offense to look average, it was a disaster last year.

Outside of Bichette, and I guess Jansen, everyone under performed.

They couldn't get a timely hit and squandered an exceptional year of pitching.

I don't see how anyone could argue that. It has been talked about non stop on MLB Network and sports radio all winter
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The offense was very disappointing based on expectations, and it's super frustrating that so many guys (especially key guys like Vlad, Varsho, Springer, and Kirk) underperformed.

It's weird, though. Their numbers across the board were all right around the middle of the pack (other than strikeouts, where they were 6th best in the league).

14th in runs scored, 16th in HR, 12th in BB%, 8th in AVG, 8th in OBP, 13th in SLG, 18th in ISO, 8th in wRC+

They were just average all around and, oddly enough, they were in that same range in high leverage situations and with runners in scoring position, too, with one clear exception: power.

RISP: 26th in HR, 28th in ISO

For a team whose primary on-base threats don't run well at all (Belt, Vlad, Kirk, even Bo is just average speed), slapping a bunch of singles with runners on second just isn't good enough.

The RISP splits at home and away are also weirdly extreme: .106 ISO (29th) and 83 wRC+ (27th) at home vs. .153 ISO (16th) and 121 wRC+ (6th) on the road.

It was a really, really weird season in a lot of ways. Hopefully some of that was at least a bit fluky, but this is where the offseason was such a disappointment to me. They need some pop in the middle of the lineup, and even the good hitter they added doesn't really provide that.
 
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Discoverer said:
The offense was very disappointing based on expectations, and it's super frustrating that so many guys (especially key guys like Vlad, Varsho, Springer, and Kirk) underperformed.

It's weird, though. Their numbers across the board were all right around the middle of the pack (other than strikeouts, where they were 6th best in the league).

14th in runs scored, 16th in HR, 12th in BB%, 8th in AVG, 8th in OBP, 13th in SLG, 18th in ISO, 8th in wRC+

They were just average all around and, oddly enough, they were in that same range in high leverage situations and with runners in scoring position, too, with one clear exception: power.

RISP: 26th in HR, 28th in ISO

For a team whose primary on-base threats don't run well at all (Belt, Vlad, Kirk, even Bo is just average speed), slapping a bunch of singles with runners on second just isn't good enough.

The RISP splits at home and away are also weirdly extreme: .106 ISO (29th) and 83 wRC+ (27th) at home vs. .153 ISO (16th) and 121 wRC+ (6th) on the road.

It was a really, really weird season in a lot of ways. Hopefully some of that was at least a bit fluky, but this is where the offseason was such a disappointment to me. They need some pop in the middle of the lineup, and even the good hitter they added doesn't really provide that.
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I don’t understand what was wrong with the Rogers Centre last year and why it was suppressing offence so much. I wonder how other Jays may feel quietly about it but they are under contract and can’t go elsewhere.
 
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canucksfan said:
Will be interesting to see how he does. The Giants ballpark isn't a hitters one at all.

Before the season started, majority thought the new renovations would result in more homers.
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Something happened to cause homers to fall off a cliff (both home and road players). Chapman as an example posted a 117 wRC+ on the road and 102 at home.

If you want to see some really funky crap, look at Varsho's splits (Daulton Varsho - Splits - 2023 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball)

He should theoretically have been the biggest benefactor of hitting in the Dome, yet he struggled to a 61 wRC+ with only slightly more soft contact.
 
Bjindaho said:
Something happened to cause homers to fall off a cliff (both home and road players). Chapman as an example posted a 117 wRC+ on the road and 102 at home.

If you want to see some really funky crap, look at Varsho's splits (Daulton Varsho - Splits - 2023 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball)

He should theoretically have been the biggest benefactor of hitting in the Dome, yet he struggled to a 61 wRC+ with only slightly more soft contact.
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Chapman's a particularly weird case because those home/road splits really aren't that extreme, and his HR were pretty much an even split. His splits strike me more as being a little fluky than an actual park factor issue.
 
Discoverer said:
Chapman's a particularly weird case because those home/road splits really aren't that extreme, and his HR were pretty much an even split. His splits strike me more as being a little fluky than an actual park factor issue.
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Yeah, but Varsho was unplayable at home and as a guy who pulls more than 50% of the time and hits 30% in the air, that should have led to some extra jacks.

Belt and Schneider had even splits, Danny was better at home, then there's a long list of significantly better on the road.
 
Bjindaho said:
Yeah, but Varsho was unplayable at home and as a guy who pulls more than 50% of the time and hits 30% in the air, that should have led to some extra jacks.

Belt and Schneider had even splits, Danny was better at home, then there's a long list of significantly better on the road.
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Right, I'm just saying Chapman's case is weird, especially if that tweet is true and he really did blame the park for some of his struggles.
 
mikeyz said:
LMFAO. You mean that "2 game sample size" when it was the playoffs and everything mattered?

And I don't know about you but I think hitting historically poor with runners on base is a problem don't you think? And unfortunately until they prove otherwise that will definitely be taken at face value going into this season. That's just the way it is. Especially considering that pretty much everybody on the coaching staff from last year is back this year. Guermo Martinez specifically.

Edit: Genuine question. What makes you think that they can bounce back and be a top 10 offensive team this year? Because I honestly don’t see it.
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To answer this in a VERY different manner...

The Dome was 26th in Park Factor last year (with only SD, Oakland, Baltimore, SF, Cleveland and Seattle worse). It was average in 2B, slightly below in HR, and absolutely awful for 1B and 3B.

The year before it was 5th with the 6th most homers and 8th most doubles.

Something happened that suppressed offense in general in Toronto. We'll know a month or two into the season if this will continue, but knowing that MLB tampers with all of the baseballs, just getting the balls fixed would easily elevate Toronto into the top 10.
 
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Bjindaho said:
To answer this in a VERY different manner...

The Dome was 26th in Park Factor last year (with only SD, Oakland, Baltimore, SF, Cleveland and Seattle worse). It was average in 2B, slightly below in HR, and absolutely awful for 1B and 3B.

The year before it was 5th with the 6th most homers and 8th most doubles.

Something happened that suppressed offense in general in Toronto. We'll know a month or two into the season if this will continue, but knowing that MLB tampers with all of the baseballs, just getting the balls fixed would easily elevate Toronto into the top 10.
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Were the visiting team stats in 2B, HR also way below average last year?
 
canucksfan said:
The Jays offense was just above average last year. It wasn’t putrid.

I still think they need another bat but there’s a decent chance they get improvement from players who had downs years last year.
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True, it wasn't putrid.
BUT
Remove Belt, Chapman and Merrifield and they will be weaker this season on offense.

On the pitching side the Jays were very fortunate to be so healthy.
I don't expect that to happen again this year. Bassit, Kukuchi and Mayza all had career seasons and they are north of 30 years old,
Lost Hicks.

For a team in their championship window they sure dropped the ball on improving the team.
 
The Iceman said:
True, it wasn't putrid.
BUT
Remove Belt, Chapman and Merrifield and they will be weaker this season on offense.

On the pitching side the Jays were very fortunate to be so healthy.
I don't expect that to happen again this year. Bassit, Kukuchi and Mayza all had career seasons and they are north of 30 years old,
Lost Hicks.

For a team in their championship window they sure dropped the ball on improving the team.
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True, but I expect Vladdy and Kirk to hit much better and Bo to reach another level.
 
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