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Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

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Beaumaris

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Eyedea said:
Why don’t you just read before commenting? The person I was initially responding to said it’s early but the same concerns as last year (for Vladdy) are still apparent. I asked how so since I can only go off posted batted ball data…
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LOL :rolleyes:
 
Eyedea

Eyedea

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Nineteen67 said:
Were the visiting team stats in 2B, HR also way below average last year?
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Can’t say for certain regarding doubles but based on team pitching stats HR/9 was 15th at home and 17th on the road, about 1% increase on HR/FB rate when pitching on the road. Fairly negligible difference. The ERA however was 3.68 at home vs 3.90 on the road and that may have largely been due to the 20 point increase in BABIP on the road. They gave up way more hits on the road, but without identifying the parks that they did it the data isn’t all that meaningful. But the dome last year was one of the hardest places to get hits last season (mind you Yankee stadium was no different).

Just based on counting stats, the Jays did get out-homered 99 to 85 at home last year. So a ~15% increase is pretty drastic. But they also outhit opponents at home by about a 4% margin. I think they ended up being a +12 in run differential at home. That’s obviously terrible considering they were 5x better on the road, but I still don’t have the slightest inclination as to why these home/road splits differed so much for them.
 
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Jojalu

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Discoverer said:
The offense was very disappointing based on expectations, and it's super frustrating that so many guys (especially key guys like Vlad, Varsho, Springer, and Kirk) underperformed.

It's weird, though. Their numbers across the board were all right around the middle of the pack (other than strikeouts, where they were 6th best in the league).

14th in runs scored, 16th in HR, 12th in BB%, 8th in AVG, 8th in OBP, 13th in SLG, 18th in ISO, 8th in wRC+

They were just average all around and, oddly enough, they were in that same range in high leverage situations and with runners in scoring position, too, with one clear exception: power.

RISP: 26th in HR, 28th in ISO

For a team whose primary on-base threats don't run well at all (Belt, Vlad, Kirk, even Bo is just average speed), slapping a bunch of singles with runners on second just isn't good enough.

The RISP splits at home and away are also weirdly extreme: .106 ISO (29th) and 83 wRC+ (27th) at home vs. .153 ISO (16th) and 121 wRC+ (6th) on the road.

It was a really, really weird season in a lot of ways. Hopefully some of that was at least a bit fluky, but this is where the offseason was such a disappointment to me. They need some pop in the middle of the lineup, and even the good hitter they added doesn't really provide that.
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I expect, maybe hope is a better word, that some of the guys you mentioned have a rebound season.

To me, it was all about their approach. I fwel that they took too many fastballs for strikes last year. I could never figure out what they were sitting on.
 
Suntouchable13

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Jojalu said:
I expect, maybe hope is a better word, that some of the guys you mentioned have a rebound season.

To me, it was all about their approach. I fwel that they took too many fastballs for strikes last year. I could never figure out what they were sitting on.
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The thing for me is does Atkinks HOPE they hit much better? Or does he have actual data from his ivy league guys at the analytics dept that says they WILL hit much better? I really hope it’s the latter. Because if we're relying on hope then we're f***ed.
 
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phillipmike

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1. Ricky Tiedemann
2. Orelvis Martinez
3. Arjun Nimmala
4. Brandon Barriera
5. Leo Jimenez
6. Addison Barger
7. Alan Roden
8. Enmanuel Bonilla
9. Adam Macko
10. Kendry Rojas
11. Josh Kasevich
12. Landen Maroudis
13. Cade Doughty
14. Damiano Palmegiani
15. Chad Dallas
16. Spencer Horwitz
17. Yosver Zulueta
18. CJ Van Eyk
19. Juaron Watts-Brown
20. Connor Cooke
21. Tucker Toman
22. Dahian Santos
23. Jace Bohrofen
24. Alex De Jesus
26. Yhoangel Aponte
27. Dasan Brown
28. Manuel Beltre
29. Sam Shaw
30. T.J. Brock
 
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Kurtz

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Bjindaho said:
To answer this in a VERY different manner...

The Dome was 26th in Park Factor last year (with only SD, Oakland, Baltimore, SF, Cleveland and Seattle worse). It was average in 2B, slightly below in HR, and absolutely awful for 1B and 3B.

The year before it was 5th with the 6th most homers and 8th most doubles.

Something happened that suppressed offense in general in Toronto. We'll know a month or two into the season if this will continue, but knowing that MLB tampers with all of the baseballs, just getting the balls fixed would easily elevate Toronto into the top 10.
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Well, two big things happened between last year and the year before.

1. We know that 2 years ago, in Judge's record-setting home run season, MLB used 3 different types of balls, and the most juiced variation was most frequently used in Yankees games. I don't know where to find it, but I'd be curious to know how our numbers at home against Yankees differed in those 2 years.

2. We re-designed our stadium dimensions, in particular to be more friendly to pull-heavy lefty power hitters, which should have favoured Varsho in particular, but obviously didn't. I think Belt took advantage of it though.
 

Jojalu

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Kurtz said:
Well, two big things happened between last year and the year before.

1. We know that 2 years ago, in Judge's record-setting home run season, MLB used 3 different types of balls, and the most juiced variation was most frequently used in Yankees games. I don't know where to find it, but I'd be curious to know how our numbers at home against Yankees differed in those 2 years.

2. We re-designed our stadium dimensions, in particular to be more friendly to pull-heavy lefty power hitters, which should have favoured Varsho in particular, but obviously didn't. I think Belt took advantage of it though.
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Has to be the balls no? At least the ones used at the Rogers Center.

With the fences moved in, I assumed it would even be more hitter friendly than normal and it was the opposite
 
The Nemesis

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phillipmike said:


1. Ricky Tiedemann
2. Orelvis Martinez
3. Arjun Nimmala
4. Brandon Barriera
5. Leo Jimenez
6. Addison Barger
7. Alan Roden
8. Enmanuel Bonilla
9. Adam Macko
10. Kendry Rojas
11. Josh Kasevich
12. Landen Maroudis
13. Cade Doughty
14. Damiano Palmegiani
15. Chad Dallas
16. Spencer Horwitz
17. Yosver Zulueta
18. CJ Van Eyk
19. Juaron Watts-Brown
20. Connor Cooke
21. Tucker Toman
22. Dahian Santos
23. Jace Bohrofen
24. Alex De Jesus
26. Yhoangel Aponte
27. Dasan Brown
28. Manuel Beltre
29. Sam Shaw
30. T.J. Brock
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It's kind of crazy how hard Toman fell off. I remember when they drafted him there was talk about him being a steal because he was supposed to be a hard sign and that he'd look good buoying the top portion of a prospect list. And now here he is a year (or two?) later and he's down at 21st behind guys with relief or utility profiles.
 
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Jojalu

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I know it's early, and Spring Training, but anytime Springer would like to get a hit would be great.
 
Eyedea

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The Nemesis said:
It's kind of crazy how hard Toman fell off. I remember when they drafted him there was talk about him being a steal because he was supposed to be a hard sign and that he'd look good buoying the top portion of a prospect list. And now here he is a year (or two?) later and he's down at 21st behind guys with relief or utility profiles.
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He was labelled out of highschool as a free swinger, but the power and switch hitting ability was enticing.

The power has practically been nonexistent.

I’m still high on Barriera but Toman looks like a lost cause. At least other picks afterwards have looked good.
 
TheMadHatTrick

TheMadHatTrick

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BertCorbeau said:
.. that’s quite the excuse
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Yes and No. Is it an excuse or an explanation? A lot of hitters on the team had a down year last year, the first year of major renovations to the outfield where the batters eye is located. For years Rogers Center used to have one of the best batters eyes in the MLB according to former and present players and opposition. It was basically a big black backdrop with no seating within which the white baseball stood out clearly. Last year that backdrop was gone. You can't under estimate what a factor that was considering how many players struggled last year. If it was just Chapman you could probably write it off as just an excuse, but I think it's also a legitimate reason and explanation.
 
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Nineteen67

Nineteen67

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Eyedea said:
Batted ball data might be inaccurate but it says he’s had half of his BIPs (3) as linedrives, one groundball, and two flyballs.

Not counting today
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That one he hit over the practice infield out beyond the centerfield wall is more like it.
 
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