Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[TheBeastCoast]

Yeah, I think both are a lot more likely than Ricky Tiedemann. Moving your top prospect from AA to the Majors is a recipe for disaster.

It will take some time to stretch Rodriguez out a little before he can step into the rotation too. He's certainly not an opening day option.

Personally don't see what exactly he has to prove at AAA. The stuff plays at the major league level. It did last year, it does now. Whether he is pitching at AA or AAA I don't think it particularly matters. They will keep him down for a while I am sure but I would not be shocked at all if he ends up factoring into our season this year.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Personally don't see what exactly he has to prove at AAA. The stuff plays at the major league level. It did last year, it does now. Whether he is pitching at AA or AAA I don't think it particularly matters. They will keep him down for a while I am sure but I would not be shocked at all if he ends up factoring into our season this year.

The only thing I see holding him back will be his innings. They will be monitored pretty carefully.

 

[landy92mack29]

Personally don't see what exactly he has to prove at AAA. The stuff plays at the major league level. It did last year, it does now. Whether he is pitching at AA or AAA I don't think it particularly matters. They will keep him down for a while I am sure but I would not be shocked at all if he ends up factoring into our season this year.

Uh that he can dominate in AAA? It's very common for players to struggle for a bit each step they go up the minor league system and you don't just throw him to the wolves in the MLB. Plus he needs to stay healthy and build up

 

[Eyedea]

Uh that he can dominate in AAA? It's very common for players to struggle for a bit each step they go up the minor league system and you don't just throw him to the wolves in the MLB. Plus he needs to stay healthy and build up

Health is one thing but wasting bullets in AAA is not always a requirement for top prospects. Eury Perez catapulted straight past it last year. Smith Shawver made like two starts at each level in 2023 before getting called up. We all remember Manoah’s ascension as well. George Kirby is another recent example, and Daniel Espino might be another case if not for Cleveland’s penchant for overcooking prospects.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Health is one thing but wasting bullets in AAA is not always a requirement for top prospects. Eury Perez catapulted straight past it last year. Smith Shawver made like two starts at each level in 2023 before getting called up. We all remember Manoah’s ascension as well. George Kirby is another recent example, and Daniel Espino might be another case if not for Cleveland’s penchant for overcooking prospects.

Used to be quite common for AAA to be bypassed by higher end prospects.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Uh that he can dominate in AAA? It's very common for players to struggle for a bit each step they go up the minor league system and you don't just throw him to the wolves in the MLB. Plus he needs to stay healthy and build up

I really do not get why we need to see that. He had the stuff to get major league hitters out at like 19 years old. Build his innings up and make sure he is healthy, sure absolutely. But as for performance, do not give a damn what level he is at with AAA or AA. Don't think it is all that relevant.

 

[Puckstuff]

If you assume that the 6 obvious starters, backup C, IKF, Turner, Biggio, Espinal are all locks, then we have 2 spots for Clement and either one of Schneider/Horwitz/Lukes (all have options) or a waiver claim if someone interesting doesn't make it.

In the scenario where Schneider doesn't force our hand, it's not a given that that happens.

Also, unless something changes this spring, I would trade Espinal before Clement personally.

And It’s not just about Clement and Schneider getting on the team over Espinal but we also need to give them playing time over Biggio.

I am so tired of management giving Biggio so many opportunities only for him to have one tiny hot stretch and then for people to think he’s going to turn the corner the next season… I would take the mystery box at 2B (Clement/Schneider) over Biggio. Biggio needs to be a bench bat imo.

 

[Nineteen67]

Tariq Leni Tiedemann pitch 44 innings last year and has a total of 122.2 innings pitched in MiLB and another 20 last fall. It would be quite an accomplishment if he was the fifth starter at any point this season.

 

[Bjindaho]

And It’s not just about Clement and Schneider getting on the team over Espinal but we also need to give them playing time over Biggio.

I am so tired of management giving Biggio so many opportunities only for him to have one tiny hot stretch and then for people to think he’s going to turn the corner the next season… I would take the mystery box at 2B (Clement/Schneider) over Biggio. Biggio needs to be a bench bat imo.

Biggio was an above average hitter last year with only one bad month (16 wRC+ in Mar/Apr).

In his 5 seasons, he has one bad year (he played through wrist and spine injuries and couldn't swing properly) and 1 slightly below average year (he got COVID partway through the year).

Schneider is not a lock to make this team. In fact, unless his at bats improve, I'd say that he's on the outside looking in, given that his K rate has ballooned (he's over 50% so far on the spring).

Espinal for some reason didn't hit lefties last year. As a defensive infielder who hits lefties, that obviously carried over to the field.

I love Clement. What he brings to the table intrigues me because his K rate dropped, which bodes well for success at the MLB level. I don't think there's as much of a crunch between these three (if they are all here) as some would think.

Right now, I'd have Biggio starting at 2B (with Espinal playing against righties)

I'd have IKF starting at 3rd (unless someone takes that), but against lefties he'd play LF and one of Varsho/Kiermaier would play CF with the other sitting) and Clement would play 3rd.

If the Jays grabbed a traditional outfielder, I see that player not playing a lot out of the gate while they work on fixing the problems that made the player available. That would leave the player as a PH and defensive sub (defense optional). This is also the roster spot that Vogelbach is vying for. The other option would be to bring someone like Lukes or Eden and a glove and running option (basically without having 13 guys forcing a roster spot, the last guy is likely to fill a specific niche).

 

[Dr.Funk]

Tariq Leni Tiedemann pitch 44 innings last year and has a total of 122.2 innings pitched in MiLB and another 20 last fall. It would be quite an accomplishment if he was the fifth starter at any point this season.

I'd think at most he might spot start if we need one for some reason and maybe late in the year he spends some time in the bullpen.

I can't see a big major league simply due to his innings.

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't know what Tiedemann's innings limit is, but I'd like to see him pitch more than 4 innings in a start before he is called up. That being said, I could see him impacting the big league club similarly to how Price did when he was called up (let him start the first half naturally and drop him down to shorter appearances in the 2nd half, where he could be called up to be a bullpen arm)

 

[landy92mack29]

yeah he needs to go at least 6 innings and be around 100 pitches before he sees the mlb. Have other options in a pinch to spot start

 

[Discoverer]

And It’s not just about Clement and Schneider getting on the team over Espinal but we also need to give them playing time over Biggio.

I am so tired of management giving Biggio so many opportunities only for him to have one tiny hot stretch and then for people to think he’s going to turn the corner the next season… I would take the mystery box at 2B (Clement/Schneider) over Biggio. Biggio needs to be a bench bat imo.

What do you consider a "tiny" hot stretch? Because, starting May 1, Biggio had a 117 wRC+ across 289 PA. Over those last 5 months, he never had a wRC+ under 100 in any single month.

I want to see more of Schneider and Clement to see what they can do, but Biggio definitely earned more opportunity last year. He had a horrible start and then was one of their most consistent offensive performers the rest of the way.

 

[The Iceman]

The only thing I see holding him back will be his innings. They will be monitored pretty carefully.

EXACTLY true, but would we rather those innings be in AAA or with the big club?

Back in the day it was a common thing to have young pitchers work as bulk RPs.
Jimmy Key, David Wells, Pat Hentgen come to mind.

Seems like a good option for RT.

 

[Suntouchable13]

What do you consider a "tiny" hot stretch? Because, starting May 1, Biggio had a 117 wRC+ across 289 PA. Over those last 5 months, he never had a wRC+ under 100 in any single month.

I want to see more of Schneider and Clement to see what they can do, but Biggio definitely earned more opportunity last year. He had a horrible start and then was one of their most consistent offensive performers the rest of the way.

My preference would be for him to steal the 3rd base job away from IKF. We know Biggio has the higher upside with the stick.

 

[Bjindaho]

My preference would be for him to steal the 3rd base job away from IKF. We know Biggio has the higher upside with the stick.

Biggio's best position is 2B.

He can play 3rd, but he's a very weak 3B. Clement and Espinal are the candidates to steal 3rd from IKF.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Biggio's best position is 2B.

He can play 3rd, but he's a very weak 3B. Clement and Espinal are the candidates to steal 3rd from IKF.

The reason I said that is because he looked decent at 3rd base last year when Chapman was injured. Or maybe it was too small a sample size. I thought he could play the position well.

 

[Bjindaho]

The reason I said that is because he looked decent at 3rd base last year when Chapman was injured. Or maybe it was too small a sample size. I thought he could play the position well.

Biggio has the exact same problem as Schneider.

He has the arm and footwork to play the position but he has slow hands. Because of this, he will always struggle to some extent. At 2B, the only play where this matters is turning a DP.

Basically, Cavan will make a lot of plays at 3B, but there will either be plays that get beat out that don't look like obvious infield singles or he will make throwing errors because he hurries up once he gathers (this is specifically the part of Chapman's game where he has slowed down).

He can play 3rd in a pinch, but longer term, it would be better to have any of the other candidates (all of whom have quicker hands) and put Biggio at 2B, where hand speed is less important (he actually reads the ball off the bat well).

Ironically, this is exactly the same issue that Whit had (why he and Biggio contributed to the gap between Chapman's OAA and DRS along with Chapman's own hand speed deterioration) and the reason that Joe Panik could not play 3B defensively (even slower hands than Cavan). It is possible to improve (see Bo), but it's an uphill climb that is completely unnecessary unless one of Orelvis or Schneider is forcing their way to every day AB at 2B.

 

[landy92mack29]

EXACTLY true, but would we rather those innings be in AAA or with the big club?

Back in the day it was a common thing to have young pitchers work as bulk RPs.
Jimmy Key, David Wells, Pat Hentgen come to mind.

Seems like a good option for RT.

that seems like a waste of a year of control tbh and he needs to prove he can go deep in games

 

[Puckstuff]

What do you consider a "tiny" hot stretch? Because, starting May 1, Biggio had a 117 wRC+ across 289 PA. Over those last 5 months, he never had a wRC+ under 100 in any single month.

I want to see more of Schneider and Clement to see what they can do, but Biggio definitely earned more opportunity last year. He had a horrible start and then was one of their most consistent offensive performers the rest of the way.

Are you over/under Biggio being better then a .730 ops hitter in 2024? Steamer projects that he will have a .702 ops. Pretty bad for a 2B.

I just feel with Biggio that the Jays have a slightly below average 2B and he doesn't move the needle. Schneider and Clement might not be anything but there's also a chance one of them takes off but with a similar floor to Biggio.

With Clement and Schneider I don't know what they are, but with Biggio I think I have a good idea what he is.

 

[Bjindaho]

Are you over/under Biggio being better then a .730 ops hitter in 2024? Steamer projects that he will have a .702 ops. Pretty bad for a 2B.

I just feel with Biggio that the Jays have a slightly below average 2B and he doesn't move the needle. Schneider and Clement might not be anything but there's also a chance one of them takes off but with a similar floor to Biggio.

With Clement and Schneider I don't know what they are, but with Biggio I think I have a good idea what he is.

Friendly reminder that most predictive tools use last 3 years, so playing injured and posting a .224/.322/.356 is factored in even if it isn't indicative of the player Cavan is. He posted slightly better last year with an absolutely horrendous first month. I'm of the opinion that he's closer to his 2019 stats if he gets going (since that is who he was from May 1st last year, with a .258/.367/.393)

 

[Kurtz]

Biggio was an above average hitter last year with only one bad month (16 wRC+ in Mar/Apr).

Man, I really dislike cherry picked stats like that. One month matters as much as the next. Biggio had .710 OPS last year. The average MLB 2B was .721 and 3B was .725. By no means was he an above average hitter last year. If you start removing the bad stretches on any player in the league you can call anyone above average.

He probably runs hot and cold more than most guys, yeah. OPS .688 Aug/July. 100 points higher in Sep/Oct. Definitely a useful player, but above average? The guy averages about 1 Fwar/season for his career, and projected for the same this year.

 

[Puckstuff]

Friendly reminder that most predictive tools use last 3 years, so playing injured and posting a .224/.322/.356 is factored in even if it isn't indicative of the player Cavan is. He posted slightly better last year with an absolutely horrendous first month. I'm of the opinion that he's closer to his 2019 stats if he gets going (since that is who he was from May 1st last year, with a .258/.367/.393)

If that's Biggio's upside, I would prefer just to roll the dice with regular Davis Schneider at bats (at least for a couple of months) until he shows us what he is.

I think Schneider has a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I think Clement could have a lower floor but he also might have a higher ceiling.

 

[Kurtz]

Friendly reminder that most predictive tools use last 3 years, so playing injured and posting a .224/.322/.356 is factored in even if it isn't indicative of the player Cavan is. He posted slightly better last year with an absolutely horrendous first month. I'm of the opinion that he's closer to his 2019 stats if he gets going (since that is who he was from May 1st last year, with a .258/.367/.393)

Objectively, it's just not likely that he's the ~800 OPS guy he was in his rookie year in 2019, rather than the on average sub-.700 OPS guy he's been the last 3 years.

His walk rate has declined every year he's been in the league. His strikeout rate and BABIP have been fairly steady. He still strikes out too much for a guy with his profile. His peripherals don't suggest a guy who has had poor luck and is poised for a breakout.

Again, objectively, a guy's rookie season is the least useful season in measuring a guy's future results. The league hasn't adjusted to him yet and he hasn't adjusted to the adjustments yet.

 

[Discoverer]

Man, I really dislike cherry picked stats like that. One month matters as much as the next. Biggio had .710 OPS last year. The average MLB 2B was .721 and 3B was .725. By no means was he an above average hitter last year. If you start removing the bad stretches on any player in the league you can call anyone above average.

He probably runs hot and cold more than most guys, yeah. OPS .688 Aug/July. 100 points higher in Sep/Oct. Definitely a useful player, but above average? The guy averages about 1 Fwar/season for his career, and projected for the same this year.

He averages one fWAR for every 267 PA in his career. That's a little above average. Over the last two years, he has 641 PA (roughly one full season of playing time) and 2.4 fWAR.

I don't think it's fair to erase a good/bad month like that, but I do think it's interesting to look at changes that may have occurred during those hot/cold stretches. Like, with Biggio in April, he was chasing out of the zone and swinging and missing way more than normal, and he was making weak contact in the air and not pulling anything. Then all of that changed for the rest of the seasons: only swinging at hittable pitches, making consistent solid contact, and pulling the ball on a line.

I have no idea whether good Biggio is sustainable, but it's obviously a positive that this was a month of shit followed by five strong months rather than the other way around or bouncing back and forth between good and bad. At the very least, I think it warrants penciling him in for a decent amount of playing time to see if he can keep it going.