Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[Kurtz]

He averages one fWAR for every 267 PA in his career. That's a little above average. Over the last two years, he has 641 PA (roughly one full season of playing time) and 2.4 fWAR.

I don't think it's fair to erase a good/bad month like that, but I do think it's interesting to look at changes that may have occurred during those hot/cold stretches. Like, with Biggio in April, he was chasing out of the zone and swinging and missing way more than normal, and he was making weak contact in the air and not pulling anything. Then all of that changed for the rest of the seasons: only swinging at hittable pitches, making consistent solid contact, and pulling the ball on a line.

I have no idea whether good Biggio is sustainable, but it's obviously a positive that this was a month of shit followed by five strong months rather than the other way around or bouncing back and forth between good and bad. At the very least, I think it warrants penciling him in for a decent amount of playing time to see if he can keep it going.

Yeah, if a guy makes identifiable, sustainable mechanical changes then that's completely different. But if he's just seeing the ball a little better for a stretch, I'm not convinced.

I also understand projecting his 300 PAs/season to a full-timer's workload, but I don't love doing that either. There's a reason that he's in that range every single season...he's a part time player, and it's not likely (though not impossible, as we've seen with JD and JB) that he'd break out into a full time stud at the age of 29.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah, if a guy makes identifiable, sustainable mechanical changes then that's completely different. But if he's just seeing the ball a little better for a stretch, I'm not convinced.

I also understand projecting his 300 PAs/season to a full-timer's workload, but I don't love doing that either. There's a reason that he's in that range every single season...he's a part time player, and it's not likely (though not impossible, as we've seen with JD and JB) that he'd break out into a full time stud at the age of 29.

But taking out one bad sample of 49PA for a much larger one of 289PA should still cover hot/cold streaks. There are a lot of things about that month that stand out as being anomalies (his IFFB rate, for example).

I didn't mean 2019 as in his OPS, I meant 2019 as in wRC+ (I apologize for not making that clear). I think Cavan is closer to a .750OPS guy.

Yeah, if a guy makes identifiable, sustainable mechanical changes then that's completely different. But if he's just seeing the ball a little better for a stretch, I'm not convinced.

I also understand projecting his 300 PAs/season to a full-timer's workload, but I don't love doing that either. There's a reason that he's in that range every single season...he's a part time player, and it's not likely (though not impossible, as we've seen with JD and JB) that he'd break out into a full time stud at the age of 29.

Even if Cavan was starting, I don't see him as a 600AB guy.

 

[Bjindaho]

https://x.com/JoeyVotto/status/1765234770793886005?s=20

I would've liked to see Votto at camp battling Vogelbach for that spot.

 

[Bjindaho]

For a guy paid to write about the Blue Jays, BNS sure does write some stinkers...

Stress-testing the Blue Jays' depth at all nine defensive positions

Starting with the simplest fixes and working his way to the most challenging, Ben Nicholson-Smith stress-tests the position player group of the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays.

www.sportsnet.ca

First off, Escobar has done nothing to suggest that he's a big league player (at this point, I wouldn't be upset if he were cut sooner rather than later).

Springer can cover all 3 OF spots and the whole exercise seems to ignore bench options, completely ignoring the skillsets of guys vying to make the team. For example, how does Biggio have no backup when one of Espinal or Clement will make the team. Both are more than capable of playing 2B/3B. Also, with 3 CF, CF is easily the best covered position (especially since IKF can also play CF).

 

[Amadeus]

For a guy paid to write about the Blue Jays, BNS sure does write some stinkers...

Stress-testing the Blue Jays' depth at all nine defensive positions

Starting with the simplest fixes and working his way to the most challenging, Ben Nicholson-Smith stress-tests the position player group of the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays.

www.sportsnet.ca

First off, Escobar has done nothing to suggest that he's a big league player (at this point, I wouldn't be upset if he were cut sooner rather than later).

Springer can cover all 3 OF spots and the whole exercise seems to ignore bench options, completely ignoring the skillsets of guys vying to make the team. For example, how does Biggio have no backup when one of Espinal or Clement will make the team. Both are more than capable of playing 2B/3B. Also, with 3 CF, CF is easily the best covered position (especially since IKF can also play CF).

Find both him and Zwelling very boring.

 

[Bjindaho]

Find both him and Zwelling very boring.

This isn't even about boring or not boring.

This article demonstrates a lack of knowledge about the Blue Jays team (despite the fact that the team paid to fly him down and be with the team and pay him to cover the team).

We can agree or disagree about how comfortable we are with IKF and Biggio as starters (I'm assuming the range is from we'll deal with it to outright want someone else in each spot starting from day 1), but I don't think anyone here has a huge concern with depth if someone goes down. In fact, FanGraphs recently posted an article (A New Way of Looking at Depth: Tables Supplement) which actually suggests that the Jays have very good depth.

 

[The Iceman]

that seems like a waste of a year of control tbh and he needs to prove he can go deep in games

Its been reported they want Tidemann will be capped to about 115 IP this season.

As a starter that means about 17 starts or just over 1/2 a season.
Do you want him for half a season or pitching into September??

 

[Nineteen67]

Its been reported they want Tidemann will be capped to about 115 IP this season.

As a starter that means about 17 starts or just over 1/2 a season.
Do you want him for half a season or pitching into September??

A sports scientist to the rescue.

 

[landy92mack29]

Its been reported they want Tidemann will be capped to about 115 IP this season.

As a starter that means about 17 starts or just over 1/2 a season.
Do you want him for half a season or pitching into September??

If he averages 6 IP a start(which I kinda doubt) that's 20 starts so with him still being 21 I'd say start in AAA until September then can be a pen option for one month

 

[The Iceman]

If he averages 6 IP a start(which I kinda doubt) that's 20 starts so with him still being 21 I'd say start in AAA until September then can be a pen option for one month

If he is better than any of the RP guys why not use those innings for the big team instead of the AAA team?

 

[landy92mack29]

If he is better than any of the RP guys why not use those innings for the big team instead of the AAA team?

learn how to go through a lineup more than once, extra year of control, keep a starters routine, prove he can handle be a starter without getting hurt

 

[Kurtz]

learn how to go through a lineup more than once, extra year of control, keep a starters routine, prove he can handle be a starter without getting hurt

Yup. I think the most realistic scenario for Ricky to give us big league innings is if he's called up fairly early in the season to cover a few spot starts for injuries. With both Gausman and Manoah experiencing shoulder/elbow trouble already, and Rodriguez needing to be stretched out after apparently barely pitching last year, I think it's more likely that we see Ricky early in the season rather than late, if at all.

 

[MK78]

This article demonstrates a lack of knowledge about the Blue Jays team (despite the fact that the team paid to fly him down and be with the team and pay him to cover the team).

Yeah, and a keyboard warrior on a forum knows better eh?

We're all armchair team owners, managers and coaches, right?

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah, and a keyboard warrior on a forum knows better eh?

We're all armchair team owners, managers and coaches, right?

I mean the keyboard warrior doesn't list options in one place then ignore the same player as an option for the same position in a slightly different scenario.

 

[The Iceman]

learn how to go through a lineup more than once, extra year of control, keep a starters routine, prove he can handle be a starter without getting hurt

No thanks, don't waste a year if you are good enough. He can be a difference maker for the 7th-8th inning

 

[landy92mack29]

No thanks, don't waste a year if you are good enough. He can be a difference maker for the 7th-8th inning

I'd rather not Aaron Sanchez him

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Eyedea]

I'd rather not Aaron Sanchez him

I’m not sure blisters and a falling suitcase are really indicative of the inability to handle a starter’s workload, but regardless Sanchez isn’t really in the same mould of a pitcher as Tieds is. He was way more erratic and even after bulking had a more wiry frame than Tieds (especially post-bulk Ricky). Sanchez’s sinker/curve were more suited for the bullpen compared to the mix and control Ricky offers.

 

[The Iceman]

I'd rather not Aaron Sanchez him

Follow in the footsteps of excellent ex jays lefties Key and Wells.
OR
Pat Hentgen, Corbin Burnes, Jack Morris, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Wainwright, Price, Schilling, Sale who all went this route.

Just saying...

 

[canucksfan]

Francis had a good outing today. On track for the fifth starter.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don’t know, still not getting really excited for the season. I am just cautiously optimistic that things will work out and we’re going to be really good. Just not overly pumped.

 

[capfit9]

Find both him and Zwelling very boring.

Zwelling is a pain to listen.