Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[dredeye]

True, but Chapman isn't a big enough upgrade to make the significant cost increase absolutely worth it. If you get April or July Chapman you're laughing but the rest of the time he was bad enough that Kiner-Falefa isn't really any worse (or was even better a few times)

wRC+ by month:
Mar/Apr = 216 Chapman vs 26 Kiner-Falefa
May = 63 Chapman vs 117 Kiner-Falefa
Jun = 75 Chapman vs 98 Kiner-Falefa
Jul = 154 Chapman vs 125 Kiner-Falefa
Aug = 49 Chapman vs 60 Kiner-Falefa
Sep/Oct = 75 Chapman vs 45 Kiner-Falefa

So Chapman's ceiling is significantly higher but on the whole he doesn't come anywhere near there most of the time and outside of those two peak months it's a lot closer than you'd think. Factor in that Kiner Falefa plays a similar level of defence in the infield as Chapman, can do so at multiple positions and while nobody will say that he's a superior player to Chapman the question becomes whether it's worth the additional $13m a season to make that potentially marginal upgrade.

I agree with what your saying but I will say looking at those wrc is scary on both sides

 

[shaner8989]

It’s mind boggling if anyone thinks the jays offense w was even remotely close to decent. They were f***ing dog shit

 

[The Nemesis]

It’s mind boggling if anyone thinks the jays offense w was even remotely close to decent. They were f***ing dog shit

I mean.... nobody said that. That's not even close to what's being talked about. But go off, I guess.

 

[shaner8989]

I mean.... nobody said that. That's not even close to what's being talked about. But go off, I guess.

I guess you didn’t read last page?

If getting shut out 8 times is pathetic, what does that make the Rangers and Twins (11) or Yankees (10) or Orioles (9)?

This stuff is just so goddamn stupid. People were frustrated by the offense last year so they're just making up stuff to try to support how awful it was. Almost every stat you can find had them in the top half of the league, so we inevitably get to the point where they have to look at stats at specific times of year or, eventually, just call it horrible and ignore all the stats.

You feeling a certain way doesn't make it true. We have shaner for that... we don't need more of it.

People are frustrated with the offense so they make stuff up?

No the offense was just f***ing dog shit. Period

 

[Deebo]

why do people engage with trolls?

 

[The Nemesis]

I guess you didn’t read last page?



People are frustrated with the offense so they make stuff up?

No the offense was just f***ing dog shit. Period

The last page is about what the team can do going forward. The only quote that's really any mention of last year in any other context is the one you quoted that pointed out they were in the top half of the league in most categories. Not that the offence was "good" but that it wasn't "dog shit" like you keep spouting. It struggled but had a lot of elements that indicate it shouldn't always generate the terrible results it did and thus why it's not unreasonable to expect some improvement this season as a matter of course. And then a couple of fairly flimsy posts decrying it even though it was just a statement in passing.

And then on the other side is "lol the offence sucks, it just does, trust me. I said so." crap that doesn't offer any real evidence other than loud statements, assurances, and vague anecdotes that half the time aren't even correct and aren't nearly as bad as they're made out to be with proper context.

I'm not really sure why I'm bothering to get into this though. Its not like it'll ever change anything.

 

[GreytWun]

We were slightly above middle of pack in offence. The weirdest thing is our offence was terrible at home, we were very good on the road.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Idk how this team isnt worse than last year especially without Chapman, but he's also my fav third baseman so maybe biased.

Doesn't look anywhere close to a playoff team to me and haven't looked very impressive at anything in ST. It's early but I'm not too enthused.

 

[Eyedea]

Okay I'll rephrase the question. Why weren't any experts predicting that the Blue Jays would win the World Series?

And I have absolutely no idea where these projections are that they're going to be a top 10 offensive team this year, especially considering that last year they were middle of the pack and the offense has gotten even worse this year then they were last year.

Do you really think that a projected 5 to 9 of Varsho, Biggio, Kirk/Jansen, IKF and KK are going to be part of a top 10 offensive team in the league? If you actually believe that then let me introduce myself. My name is George C Parker and I have a bridge that I want to sell you. LOL.

I understand that Sports is unpredictable and projections really mean nothing at the end of the day. That's why they play the games. But my God. I look at that 5 to 9 and I would be absolutely shocked and Blown Away if they were a top 10 offensive team this year. Because that part of the order is bad offensively. Really, REALLY bad!!! Lol.

FG’s batting value projects them as the 7th highest value. That encompasses all offence, defence, and baserunning. Their projected standings has them at 13th in runs scored, but that doesn’t account for park factors as certain teams will easily hit high numbers due to their park dimensions (Cinci, Boston, Texas, Baltimore, NYY, Philly come to mind). Based on projected run differential they’re firmly in the top 10 at 9th, and no that’s not because their pitching is projected to be elite (only 10th in RA/G).

Edit:

And then you have Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections. They have the Jays 2nd in the East behind the Yankees and only 5 teams (Yanks, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, DBacks) are projected to score more runs than the Jays.

 

[mikeyz]

FG’s batting value projects them as the 7th highest value. That encompasses all offence, defence, and baserunning. Their projected standings has them at 13th in runs scored, but that doesn’t account for park factors as certain teams will easily hit high numbers due to their park dimensions (Cinci, Boston, Texas, Baltimore, NYY, Philly come to mind). Based on projected run differential they’re firmly in the top 10 at 9th, and no that’s not because their pitching is projected to be elite (only 10th in RA/G).

Edit:

And then you have Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections. They have the Jays 2nd in the East behind the Yankees and only 5 teams (Yanks, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, DBacks) are projected to score more runs than the Jays.

Lol. That was a rhetorical statement in my last post. I know where those projections are coming from. I'm just saying from a common sense standpoint, I don't know how anyone can make a argument that they can finish in the top 10 offensively this year considering that they weren't even top 10 last year and their offense is even worse this year.

 

[Eyedea]

Lol. That was a rhetorical statement in my last post. I know where those projections are coming from. I'm just saying from a common sense standpoint, I don't know how anyone can make a argument that they can finish in the top 10 offensively this year considering that they weren't even top 10 last year and their offense is even worse this year.

I think that’s called regression to the mean. Something about rare or extreme events that occur (Jays RISP numbers) are likely to be followed by more typical ones.

And no, you can’t just say “BuT tHeY gOt WoRsE” when everyone that is still on the team that had down years are projected to perform better than they did last year.

 

[Bjindaho]

Lol. That was a rhetorical statement in my last post. I know where those projections are coming from. I'm just saying from a common sense standpoint, I don't know how anyone can make a argument that they can finish in the top 10 offensively this year considering that they weren't even top 10 last year and their offense is even worse this year.

So argue with me but I'll subjectively dismiss your argument ignoring all the facts because they don't fit my worldview?

What's the point of posting if you arent willing to accept facts, that you could be wrong or that a bad setup could work (see the Royals).

 

[Discoverer]

Are you seriously trying to argue that the offence was good last year?????? We can agree that offence wins games and defence wins championships in sports right?? So in baseball’s case, that would be pitching wins championships. Well, the Blue Jays had arguably 1 of the best rotations in the league last year and yet nobody was talking about them being a World Series contender. Why do you think that was?????

This isn’t about “Being like Shaner”. BTW, Lol. It’s about being a realist and not a Pom pom waving fanboy. Which you seem to be in spades.

Point out where I said the offense was good and we can discuss that. You've referred to it as "trash" and "pathetic", and that's what I'm disagreeing with.

They finished 14th in baseball in runs scored. How is that trash or pathetic? Why were the Jays not a serious contender because of their offense while the Diamondbacks, who scored literally the exact same number of runs, lost in the World Series?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Point out where I said the offense was good and we can discuss that. You've referred to it as "trash" and "pathetic", and that's what I'm disagreeing with.

They finished 14th in baseball in runs scored. How is that trash or pathetic? Why were the Jays not a serious contender because of their offense while the Diamondbacks, who scored literally the exact same number of runs, lost in the World Series?

The key is to cash runners in. I believe the Jays were good at getting runners on, just not good at getting them in. Their offence was basically on par with Baltimore, except Baltimore lead the league in hitting with RISP. Turner will help, and if Vladdy can mash 30-40 homers, that will help too.

 

[The Nemesis]

Hoping for a good outing from this Espino youngster. He might have promise

 

[The Nemesis]

Crawford has a weird delivery. He double clutches after pulling the ball out of his glove. Seems like the kind of thing that will lead to him tipping pitches

 

[mikeyz]

I think that’s called regression to the mean. Something about rare or extreme events that occur (Jays RISP numbers) are likely to be followed by more typical ones.

And no, you can’t just say “BuT tHeY gOt WoRsE” when everyone that is still on the team that had down years are projected to perform better than they did last year.

They lost Belt, Chapman and Merrifield and replaced them with Turner, IKF and Volgelbach.

Are you trying to tell me that that’s an improvement???

Point out where I said the offense was good and we can discuss that. You've referred to it as "trash" and "pathetic", and that's what I'm disagreeing with.

They finished 14th in baseball in runs scored. How is that trash or pathetic? Why were the Jays not a serious contender because of their offense while the Diamondbacks, who scored literally the exact same number of runs, lost in the World Series?

Yea, it was trash. Because despite having 1 of the best rotations in the MLB yesterday, they backed into the playoffs and on top of that scored how many runs in that 2 game series with the Twins?? 1?


That’s pathetic my friend.

 

[The Nemesis]

They lost Belt, Chapman and Merrifield and replaced them with Turner, IKF and Volgelbach.

Are you trying to tell me that that’s an improvement???

Pretending that it's difficult to replace Chapman and Merrifield offensively when each of them were abjectly awful with the bat outside of 1 good month and 1 great month each is certainly a take.

 

[The Nemesis]

Either something's wrong with the MASN feed or the field has suddenly become electrified.

 

[mikeyz]

Pretending that it's difficult to replace Chapman and Merrifield offensively when each of them were abjectly awful with the bat outside of 1 good month and 1 great month each is certainly a take.

Show me where I said Chapman, Belt and Merrifield were good offensively

All I said was the players they replaced those guys with are worse.

P.S now you guys are finally starting to admit that part of the offense was terrible when you've been defending it to me this entire conversation? LMFAO holy talk about spinning the narrative when it fits you Batman. LOL

 

[landy92mack29]

good luck replacing Chapmans 4.4 war with what they brought in/have coming up

 

[Bjindaho]

good luck replacing Chapmans 4.4 war with what they brought in/have coming up

bWAR, which gives him extra D bonuses. Keep in mind that the Jays have multiple Chapman level (or better) defensive 3B.


Otoh, they might not put up the 110wRC+ (which was largely bases empty fueled).

 

[landy92mack29]

bWAR, which gives him extra D bonuses. Keep in mind that the Jays have multiple Chapman level (or better) defensive 3B.


Otoh, they might not put up the 110wRC+ (which was largely bases empty fueled).

Chapman is the best defensive 3B there is so doubt it

 

[The Nemesis]

Show me where I said Chapman, Belt and Merrifield were good offensively

All I said was the players they replaced those guys with are worse.

P.S now you guys are finally starting to admit that part of the offense was terrible when you've been defending it to me this entire conversation? LMFAO holy talk about spinning the narrative when it fits you Batman. LOL

1) I never said you said they were good. I said that they weren't good enough that replacing them will be difficult

2) the point isn't that the guys they replaced them with are worse. The point is that the team has a number of guys who had uncharacteristic down years last year. Unless all of them defy convention and do the same thing this year, their improvements will easily help offset any offensive differences between those 3 departing players and who replaces them (which won't be that big. Belt and Turner should be fairly close and as I said Merrifield and Chapman were ass at the plate far more than they were good)

3) I haven't been talking to you. You've been having this conversation with like 4 different posters, none of which have been me. Which should be obvious considering I don't have the default puck logo avatar that those others do.

4) Some of the guys in the offence can be awful without the offence as a whole being terrible. It's not that mind-blowing of a concept.

5) Accusing me of warping the facts to fit my narrative is rich when your whole thing has been saying opinions of questionable validity, actually using the word "facts" to describe them as if that makes them more concrete, and misrepresenting what others are saying so that you can argue the points more easily is rich.

 

[Bjindaho]

Chapman is the best defensive 3B there is so doubt it

That is objectively false