Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[Kurtz]

The moment the Jays lost out and Ohtani and Soto people were flipping their lids over the team not immediately moving to alternate plans the second they had to pivot.

I can't imagine how much more freaking out would've happened if they continued to try and wait out the market, especially given that I don't think anyone predicted that Bellinger and Chapman wouldn't be signed before spring training began gearing up. Or that Montgomery and Snell would still be waiting for contracts. And what if things didn't go this way? What if the Jays tried to wait the market out and those guys moved earlier. then everyone would be angry that they sat on their hands and waited for the market to come to them.

I'm pretty sure that no one would have been upset about us missing out on IKR and Turner. At least that way we'd be $20 mil lighter on the payroll and there'd be some hope remaining that we could bring in a much needed bat if not via free agency then via trade. At the moment there's no hope of us bringing in someone like Martinez because we're over-stuffed at DH and are apparently at our internal cap limit.

This Chapman saga reminds me of when this management group first got here. They offered a deal to Encarnacion, he declined, and in a panic they overpaid Kendrys "Exit Velocity" Moralez. Edwin's market never materialized, he wanted to come back at a much smaller deal, but by then our budget was already spent.

Years later, and this group still manages to consistently misread the market and overspend on mediocrity (a couple of outliers, like Semien, and Gausman aside).

 

[Nineteen67]

They’re not very good at the plate again his year. Poor ABs and Flop looks worse than last year.

 

[Kurtz]

True, but Chapman isn't a big enough upgrade to make the significant cost increase absolutely worth it. If you get April or July Chapman you're laughing but the rest of the time he was bad enough that Kiner-Falefa isn't really any worse (or was even better a few times)

wRC+ by month:
Mar/Apr = 216 Chapman vs 26 Kiner-Falefa
May = 63 Chapman vs 117 Kiner-Falefa
Jun = 75 Chapman vs 98 Kiner-Falefa
Jul = 154 Chapman vs 125 Kiner-Falefa
Aug = 49 Chapman vs 60 Kiner-Falefa
Sep/Oct = 75 Chapman vs 45 Kiner-Falefa

So Chapman's ceiling is significantly higher but on the whole he doesn't come anywhere near there most of the time and outside of those two peak months it's a lot closer than you'd think. Factor in that Kiner Falefa plays a similar level of defence in the infield as Chapman, can do so at multiple positions and while nobody will say that he's a superior player to Chapman the question becomes whether it's worth the additional $13m a season to make that potentially marginal upgrade.

We all saw how he struggled down the stretch, but the guy also carried our offense for those first 2 months.

Consider that Turner also couldn't hit to save his life down the stretch. But Chapman is 30 and Turner is 39. Which of the two guys do you think has a better chance at bouncing back next season?

Yes. I love watching good pitching and defense and I love watching the Jays win. Despite just average (and often frustrating) offense, they won 89 games with arguably the best pitching and defense in the league.

I really don't understand how anyone who's watched the Jays over the last 30 years could feel like 2024 was one of the painful ones.

I mean we missed the playoffs for what, 21 straight years? Off course anything looks better by comparison nowadays, especially with the extra playoff slots being made available. But that's a damned low bar that you're setting.

I think you're in a small minority of Jays fans if you enjoyed the prior season.

 

[Nineteen67]

If the pitching holds up they could win 85 games.

 

[Eyedea]

We all saw how he struggled down the stretch, but the guy also carried our offense for those first 2 months.

Consider that Turner also couldn't hit to save his life down the stretch. But Chapman is 30 and Turner is 39. Which of the two guys do you think has a better chance at bouncing back next season?



I mean we missed the playoffs for what, 21 straight years? Off course anything looks better by comparison nowadays, especially with the extra playoff slots being made available. But that's a damned low bar that you're setting.

I think you're in a small minority of Jays fans if you enjoyed the prior season.

4th highest win total since 1993. Even without the extra wildcard the team is just flat out better and more competitive than the 1994-2014 eras. They might not have Delgado/Halladay star power but it’s still fun seeing a team win more often than they lose.

 

[Bjindaho]

We all saw how he struggled down the stretch, but the guy also carried our offense for those first 2 months.

Consider that Turner also couldn't hit to save his life down the stretch. But Chapman is 30 and Turner is 39. Which of the two guys do you think has a better chance at bouncing back next season?



I mean we missed the playoffs for what, 21 straight years? Off course anything looks better by comparison nowadays, especially with the extra playoff slots being made available. But that's a damned low bar that you're setting.

I think you're in a small minority of Jays fans if you enjoyed the prior season.

And most of the problems with runners on are gone (and hopefully George hits better in general).

Yes, people would like better players, but we're willing to wait and see because there's talent both on the roster and lurking in the shadows to steal roster spots from our weakest players.

 

[Discoverer]

Bottom 5 in average with RISP. If I remember correctly for a large stretch there from August until the beginning of September they were actually bottom 3.

They also got shutout 8 times in a 2 week stretch in August last year as well.

I don't know about you. But I would consider that pretty trash.

They got shutout 3 times in all of August.

They hit .302 (6th in baseball) with runners in scoring position in August.

Next.

 

[The Nemesis]

I'm pretty sure that no one would have been upset about us missing out on IKR and Turner. At least that way we'd be $20 mil lighter on the payroll and there'd be some hope remaining that we could bring in a much needed bat if not via free agency then via trade. At the moment there's no hope of us bringing in someone like Martinez because we're over-stuffed at DH and are apparently at our internal cap limit.

This Chapman saga reminds me of when this management group first got here. They offered a deal to Encarnacion, he declined, and in a panic they overpaid Kendrys "Exit Velocity" Moralez. Edwin's market never materialized, he wanted to come back at a much smaller deal, but by then our budget was already spent.

Years later, and this group still manages to consistently misread the market and overspend on mediocrity (a couple of outliers, like Semien, and Gausman aside).

I don't think anyone would be upset about missing those players specifically, but people were already upset that the team was doing nothing while they were waiting out the Ohtani saga. They would be upset about doing nothing with no regard to what the alternative to nothing is.

We all saw how he struggled down the stretch, but the guy also carried our offense for those first 2 months.

Consider that Turner also couldn't hit to save his life down the stretch. But Chapman is 30 and Turner is 39. Which of the two guys do you think has a better chance at bouncing back next season?



I mean we missed the playoffs for what, 21 straight years? Off course anything looks better by comparison nowadays, especially with the extra playoff slots being made available. But that's a damned low bar that you're setting.

I think you're in a small minority of Jays fans if you enjoyed the prior season.

1) The "first two months" isn't all of March and April. It's like 3 days at the end of March plus April. So he only carried hte offence for a month, then went in the tank, then sort of rebounded in July then fell off a cliff again. He might've carried the offence twice over the season but the rest of the time he was a big reason it was so terrible.

2) I never said I enjoyed last season. It was frustrating. But let's be realistic here: there wasn't a great fit on the market that would've solved those problems outside of Ohtani and Soto. The top free agent bats were Bellinger, who is a MASSIVE risk to sign off of one good season after like 3 or 4 crappy ones and Chapman who we've just discussed the deficiencies of to death.

Would I have preferred Martinez to Turner? Absolutely. But that does not impact how I assess the situation around Chapman. Do I want them to make the playoffs and do something? Of course. But let's not kid ourselves into believing that there were perfect or even semi-ideal solutions to the team's problems waiting on the FA market. I mean people are talking up Soler as if he's not a full-time DH who is a 104 wRC+ guy since 2020. Yeah the power is sexy and a 25-30HR bat would be nice but he's also a guy who strikes out a lot and routinely produces an OPS below .800. Turner might be older and not have as much raw HR power but he has a far better overall track record than Soler does, came at basically teh same price but without being locked in for 3 years. Even if you swap Soler with Turner and don't sign Kiner-Falefa there's not enough money to do better at 3rd base than what the Jays are doing now. And you're still jammed up with DH spot candidates to the point that Martinez is a pipe dream.

The Jays came out of a mostly crappy FA market with sub-optimal solutions to their problems. But so have a lot of teams. Did the Jays fumble the bag a bit? Yeah. But it's not like they fell on their face and missed an ideal solution to most of their problems besides Ohtani. They made the same sort of kind-of-bad choices that a lot of teams did. The difference is that a team like the Giants that finished below 500 and is just trying to be relevant will look at Soler and Chapman as a lot better options than what they had whereas with the Jays the fact that they don't really fix what the team has had that's broken any more than other guys on the market diminishes their value.

 

[The Nemesis]

They got shutout 3 times in all of August.

They hit .302 (6th in baseball) with runners in scoring position in August.

Next.

RISP is also a notoriously swingy and fickle stat that runs on relatively small sample sizes. It's not a repeatable and targetable "skill"

never mind the fact that the people that if you want to improve RISP, signing a guy with a career .240 batting average is not exactly a high spec solution to getting hits in any situation, let alone RISP. (and for the record Chapman hit .215 with RISP last year.)

 

[hockeywiz542]

When does Manoah pitch again.

getting spankee by the yankee tonight.

I think I heard Saturday a few days ago.

 

[landy92mack29]

Was fine with the offseason until now because not bringing Chapman back for that or even a couple mil/yr more is incompetence. Yeah sure he can frustrate with Ks but has elite defense and still one of the best 3B in the game when taking everything into account. Sadly feels like they might have to blow things up after this year if they can't get Bichette+Guerrero signed long term....or they'll be dumb enough to let them walk

 

[tp71]

Was fine with the offseason until now because not bringing Chapman back for that or even a couple mil/yr more is incompetence. Yeah sure he can frustrate with Ks but has elite defense and still one of the best 3B in the game when taking everything into account. Sadly feels like they might have to blow things up after this year if they can't get Bichette+Guerrero signed long term....or they'll be dumb enough to let them walk

Hes one of those players who people don't realize just how good he is until its too late.

 

[Eyedea]

They’re not very good at the plate again his year. Poor ABs and Flop looks worse than last year.

How does “Flop” look worse this year?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Look, I still think there is a lot of upside to this roster. Vladdy and Varsho can break out and have great years. Bo can take it to another level even higher. Kirk can breakout too and become an absolute stud he was in 2022 (especially in the first half). You can easily see it happen because the talent is there. Mattingly taking a bigger role this year can unlock all this potential. It's absolutely there. This team is still loaded with talent.

 

[Nineteen67]

How does “Flop” look worse this year?

It’s early but he lacks humility and has a really bad approach again this spring.

 

[Eyedea]

It’s early but he lacks humility and has a really bad approach again this spring.

This is Vladdy? I haven’t watched ST games but the (SSS + ST) numbers don’t look like an issue at all.

 

[Amadeus]

Don't seem to have much hope for this season with the offense looking like it does on paper and the fact that I'm very uncertain the SP can replicate the great season they had last year.

 

[Nineteen67]

This is Vladdy? I haven’t watched ST games but the (SSS + ST) numbers don’t look like an issue at all.

He has one or two hits and everything id soft and on the ground. You can’t judge him on one week of watching him, but he looks like he did last year.

My hunch is if they make a push for a playoff spot, Bo will have to have an MVP calibre year

 

[Eyedea]

He has one or two hits and everything id soft and on the ground. You can’t judge him on one week of watching him, but he looks like he did last year.

My hunch is if they make a push for a playoff spot, Bo will have to have an MVP calibre year

Batted ball data might be inaccurate but it says he’s had half of his BIPs (3) as linedrives, one groundball, and two flyballs.

Not counting today

 

[mikeyz]

They got shutout 3 times in all of August.

They hit .302 (6th in baseball) with runners in scoring position in August.

Next.

Sorry. 3 times in a span of 2 weeks in August and 8 times total(Which is still pretty pathetic)

Their offense was completely putrid last year.

 

[Discoverer]

Sorry. 3 times in a span of 2 weeks in August and 8 times total(Which is still pretty pathetic)

Their offense was completely putrid last year.

If getting shut out 8 times is pathetic, what does that make the Rangers and Twins (11) or Yankees (10) or Orioles (9)?

This stuff is just so goddamn stupid. People were frustrated by the offense last year so they're just making up stuff to try to support how awful it was. Almost every stat you can find had them in the top half of the league, so we inevitably get to the point where they have to look at stats at specific times of year or, eventually, just call it horrible and ignore all the stats.

You feeling a certain way doesn't make it true. We have shaner for that... we don't need more of it.

 

[mikeyz]

If getting shut out 8 times is pathetic, what does that make the Rangers and Twins (11) or Yankees (10) or Orioles (9)?

This stuff is just so goddamn stupid. People were frustrated by the offense last year so they're just making up stuff to try to support how awful it was. Almost every stat you can find had them in the top half of the league, so we inevitably get to the point where they have to look at stats at specific times of year or, eventually, just call it horrible and ignore all the stats.

You feeling a certain way doesn't make it true. We have shaner for that... we don't need more of it.

Are you seriously trying to argue that the offence was good last year?????? We can agree that offence wins games and defence wins championships in sports right?? So in baseball’s case, that would be pitching wins championships. Well, the Blue Jays had arguably 1 of the best rotations in the league last year and yet nobody was talking about them being a World Series contender. Why do you think that was?????

This isn’t about “Being like Shaner”. BTW, Lol. It’s about being a realist and not a Pom pom waving fanboy. Which you seem to be in spades.

 

[Eyedea]

Are you seriously trying to argue that the offence was good last year?????? We can agree that offence wins games and defence wins championships in sports right?? So in baseball’s case, that would be pitching wins championships. Well, the Blue Jays had arguably 1 of the best rotations in the league last year and yet nobody was talking about them being a World Series contender. Why do you think that was?????

This isn’t about “Being like Shaner”. BTW, Lol. It’s about being a realist and not a Pom pom waving fanboy. Which you seem to be in spades.

Not sure what being a WS favourite means when it comes to actual results. Braves and Dodgers were favourites and got pumped in the DS.

And yes the Jays were historically bad with RISP last year. Why are they projected to be a top 10ish offensive team this year? Almost like they were good in all other situations and RISP average doesn’t predict future results.

 

[mikeyz]

Not sure what being a WS favourite means when it comes to actual results. Braves and Dodgers were favourites and got pumped in the DS.

And yes the Jays were historically bad with RISP last year. Why are they projected to be a top 10ish offensive team this year? Almost like they were good in all other situations and RISP average doesn’t predict future results.

Okay I'll rephrase the question. Why weren't any experts predicting that the Blue Jays would win the World Series?

And I have absolutely no idea where these projections are that they're going to be a top 10 offensive team this year, especially considering that last year they were middle of the pack and the offense has gotten even worse this year then they were last year.

Do you really think that a projected 5 to 9 of Varsho, Biggio, Kirk/Jansen, IKF and KK are going to be part of a top 10 offensive team in the league? If you actually believe that then let me introduce myself. My name is George C Parker and I have a bridge that I want to sell you. LOL.

I understand that Sports is unpredictable and projections really mean nothing at the end of the day. That's why they play the games. But my God. I look at that 5 to 9 and I would be absolutely shocked and Blown Away if they were a top 10 offensive team this year. Because that part of the order is bad offensively. Really, REALLY bad!!! Lol.

 

[sxvnert]

If its a concussion then he's a write off this season.