Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[Woodman19]

I actually don't hate the offseason. After missing out on Soto and Ohtani (were we ever really in on it?) what else was there? We have home grown options in Schneider, Horwitz, Clemente and possibly guys like Barger and Martinez down in AAA who are likely to be as productive as most older FA bats and we let the highest K rate batters walk while replacing them with Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. While not super sexy players, they at least put the ball in play and have low K rates and in IKF's case an excellent versatile glove.

All those men in scoring position with less than 2 outs should in theory be cashed in more often this year since we got rid of all the non productive strikeouts in the lineup. Plus we get to see the young kids play instead of clogging the field so we can see if any of them can actually bring something going forward which we kind of need since we have some big decisions ahead with Bo and Vlad.

 

[Suntouchable13]

54/3 for Chappy? Wow, I guess Toronto really didn't want him. They could have easily given him that, or even more. That's a pretty good contract.

 

[Eyedea]

Probably could just get JD Davis on the cheap now from SF. He’s fairly similar to Chappy offensively. Defensive metrics are all over the place for him but he doesn’t seem too terrible. Just a guy that goes for the safe play as opposed to Chappy bare hand tossing to 2nd.

 

[Bjindaho]

Probably could just get JD Davis on the cheap now from SF. He’s fairly similar to Chappy offensively. Defensive metrics are all over the place for him but he doesn’t seem too terrible. Just a guy that goes for the safe play as opposed to Chappy bare hand tossing to 2nd.

Would love that.

Fwiw, 20m is 28.4m in real dollars yo the Jays (because of tax implications).

 

[The Nemesis]

I know this will probably get me labeled as a "shatkins apologist" or whatever (not that I think I don't have that label already) and it's not directed at any particular poster but it's always amusing to me in any sport when a player signs a contract somewhere the reaction from fans of teams that don't get them will often be something along the lines of "why didn't <person's team> sign him for that?" as if it would've been just that easy to offer up the same deal and have the player take it instead of the one he did elsewhere. And therefore it becomes a failure for the teams that don't sign the player to have not matched and therefore beaten the deal.

It precludes the fact that it takes two to tango. Just because a player signs for X in one place doesn't mean he would've taken X from everywhere, nor does it mean that another team would've automatically had a tiebreaker had they simply matched the offer.

We know the Jays offered Chapman a larger contract extension prior to the off-season. He chose not to take it. We don't know if he would've taken the lesser offer that the Giants gave him if the Jays had done so. Maybe it was management's choice not to offer a similar contract. Maybe it was Chapman's choice not to come back to the Jays for anything close to what the Giants offered. Maybe he never even gave them a chance to match it. We don't know and it's irresponsible to just assume it's a failure of management on the logic of "if he signed for the Giants for that much then the only reason he's not a Blue Jay is they didn't offer him the same contract."

I always think back to the Joe Thornton trade. In the wake of it I remember a bunch of non-Sharks teams' fans flipping out that their club didn't match the bargain basement price of Sturm/Primeau/Stuart for Thornton. Then it came out afterwards that numerous teams around the league didn't even have the slightest clue he was even available and it's not that they didn't match the offer it's that they never got the chance.

 

[Kurtz]

Who even says he would've accepted that from the Blue Jays? Who's to say he wouldn't have demanded more to return? I can't imagine he would be too enthused to continue playing on the turf when he's getting older, more banged up, and his D is potentially declining.

Maybe so, but the fact remains that we went into the off-season needing to upgrade our offense, and we ended up downgrading our offense. IKr and Turner are projected to hit worse than Chapman and Belt.

Now we're relying on a prayer that our vets bounce back and that our rookies play above expectations. That's a hope, not a strategy.

 

[GoonieFace]

Maybe so, but the fact remains that we went into the off-season needing to upgrade our offense, and we ended up downgrading our offense. IKr and Turner are projected to hit worse than Chapman and Belt.

Now we're relying on a prayer that our vets bounce back and that our rookies play above expectations. That's a hope, not a strategy.

Yeah it would have been much better to throw big money at overrated Bellinger, Chapman etc. expecting Vladdy/Kirk/Springer to play better than last year is a reasonable expectation.

Having young guys step up and play a primary role is a strategy. They can’t keep relying on signing older free agents.

Only time will tell, but crying about an off-season where the free agent crop was garbage, just doesn’t make sense

 

[Kurtz]

Yeah it would have been much better to throw big money at overrated Bellinger, Chapman etc. expecting Vladdy/Kirk/Springer to play better than last year is a reasonable expectation.

Having young guys step up and play a primary role is a strategy. They can’t keep relying on signing older free agents.

Only time will tell, but crying about an off-season where the free agent crop was garbage, just doesn’t make sense

This is a dumb post.

Bellinger, Chapman, etc would have made us a better team. They would not have impeded Vlad/Kirk/Springer from having bounce-back seasons.

Why are you crying about Rogers' money as though it's your own? They made the bad financial decisions to overpay the likes of IKF. To cry about folks pointing that out is silly.

This class had several guys who could have made us better, including the guys you mentioned. Enough with the sorry excuses.

 

[Discoverer]

This is a dumb post.

Bellinger, Chapman, etc would have made us a better team. They would not have impeded Vlad/Kirk/Springer from having bounce-back seasons.

Why are you crying about Rogers' money as though it's your own? They made the bad financial decisions to overpay the likes of IKR. To cry about folks pointing that out is silly.

This class had several guys who could have made us better, including the guys you mentioned. Enough with the sorry excuses.

Am I missing an inside joke about "IKR" or something? I've seen it multiple times and I can't tell if I'm missing something or some people just don't know his name.

 

[GoonieFace]

This is a dumb post.

Bellinger, Chapman, etc would have made us a better team. They would not have impeded Vlad/Kirk/Springer from having bounce-back seasons.

Why are you crying about Rogers' money as though it's your own? They made the bad financial decisions to overpay the likes of IKR. To cry about folks pointing that out is silly.

This class had several guys who could have made us better, including the guys you mentioned. Enough with the sorry excuses.

I never said Kiner Falafel was a good move, but these guys rotted till February/March because nobody really thinks they are that good.
You want to want Chapman and his empty at bats for $25mil a year? Might as well watch IKF do it for a third of the cost.

Like I said, let’s see how it plays out. Baseball is a tricky game to predict. If they suck at the All-Star break, than we can expect to see some change

 

[Kurtz]

Am I missing an inside joke about "IKR" or something? I've seen it multiple times and I can't tell if I'm missing something or some people just don't know his name.

We'll start getting his name right when he hits like a major leaguer. Frankly, even being two-thirds there is barely deserved.

 

[Discoverer]

Honestly, I find both sides annoying right now. The constant complaining is a little much - this still looks to be a really good team and it's likely going to be a really fun, competitive season.

But... I also can't imagine looking at the offseason and feeling satisfied. They had clear needs and they didn't come close to addressing them. I have confidence in some of the young guys being able to step in and improve the offense, but that doesn't justify not improving it the last few months. I don't know... maybe that Adames/Yelich deal is still out there.

 

[Kurtz]

I never said Kiner Falafel was a good move, but these guys rotted till February/March because nobody really thinks they are that good.
You want to want Chapman and his empty at bats for $25mil a year? Might as well watch IKF do it for a third of the cost.

Like I said, let’s see how it plays out. Baseball is a tricky game to predict. If they suck at the All-Star break, than we can expect to see some change

Jays offered Chapman a contract - clearly they wanted him back. He rejected the initial offer, they spent money on lesser pieces, and then didn't have enough in the piggy bank left when it became clear that he would sign at a discount.

Contrast that with San Francisco for example who waited and got Soler and Chapman at far lower prices than expected, and they may get more bargains yet. At this point, I'm anticipating the Martinez contract to be on par with Turner's.

Honestly, I find both sides annoying right now. The constant complaining is a little much - this still looks to be a really good team and it's likely going to be a really fun, competitive season.

But... I also can't imagine looking at the offseason and feeling satisfied. They had clear needs and they didn't come close to addressing them. I have confidence in some of the young guys being able to step in and improve the offense, but that doesn't justify not improving it the last few months. I don't know... maybe that Adames/Yelich deal is still out there.

Did you find the previous Jays season to be fun? If you did, it may just be a matter of perspective, because I think most folks found it painful, and we may have gotten worse.

 

[The Nemesis]

Maybe so, but the fact remains that we went into the off-season needing to upgrade our offense, and we ended up downgrading our offense. IKr and Turner are projected to hit worse than Chapman and Belt.

Now we're relying on a prayer that our vets bounce back and that our rookies play above expectations. That's a hope, not a strategy.

True, but Chapman isn't a big enough upgrade to make the significant cost increase absolutely worth it. If you get April or July Chapman you're laughing but the rest of the time he was bad enough that Kiner-Falefa isn't really any worse (or was even better a few times)

wRC+ by month:
Mar/Apr = 216 Chapman vs 26 Kiner-Falefa
May = 63 Chapman vs 117 Kiner-Falefa
Jun = 75 Chapman vs 98 Kiner-Falefa
Jul = 154 Chapman vs 125 Kiner-Falefa
Aug = 49 Chapman vs 60 Kiner-Falefa
Sep/Oct = 75 Chapman vs 45 Kiner-Falefa

So Chapman's ceiling is significantly higher but on the whole he doesn't come anywhere near there most of the time and outside of those two peak months it's a lot closer than you'd think. Factor in that Kiner Falefa plays a similar level of defence in the infield as Chapman, can do so at multiple positions and while nobody will say that he's a superior player to Chapman the question becomes whether it's worth the additional $13m a season to make that potentially marginal upgrade.

 

[Bjindaho]

Jays offered Chapman a contract - clearly they wanted him back. He rejected the initial offer, they spent money on lesser pieces, and then didn't have enough in the piggy bank left when it became clear that he would sign at a discount.

Contrast that with San Francisco for example who waited and got Soler and Chapman at far lower prices than expected, and they may get more bargains yet. At this point, I'm anticipating the Martinez contract to be on par with Turner's.



Did you find the previous Jays season to be fun? If you did, it may just be a matter of perspective, because I think most folks found it painful, and we may have gotten worse.

You can't sit all offseason with nothing and hope for the best. That's worse than what they did.

That being said, this is a problem that Atkins created and that also needs to be acknowledged.

 

[GoonieFace]

Jays offered Chapman a contract - clearly they wanted him back. He rejected the initial offer, they spent money on lesser pieces, and then didn't have enough in the piggy bank left when it became clear that he would sign at a discount.

Contrast that with San Francisco for example who waited and got Soler and Chapman at far lower prices than expected, and they may get more bargains yet. At this point, I'm anticipating the Martinez contract to be on par with Turner's.



Did you find the previous Jays season to be fun? If you did, it may just be a matter of perspective, because I think most folks found it painful, and we may have gotten worse.

The extension was offered in season and obviously Chapman wanted to test free agency. There was also the thought he wanted to return to the west coast. Consider the Jays lucky that he didn’t sign.

Soler for 3 years would also be a mistake.

Depending on what Vlad does this year, there will be some serious implications with him and Bichette needing long term deals.

I’m not thrilled with the off-season, but I’m not sure overpaying the garbage that was available was the right move either

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't know what ya'll are complaining about. Sure it would have been nice to get Ohtani or Soto, but how can you not be happy with what we've done this off season? Stop hating.

 

[The Nemesis]

Contrast that with San Francisco for example who waited and got Soler and Chapman at far lower prices than expected, and they may get more bargains yet. At this point, I'm anticipating the Martinez contract to be on par with Turner's.

The moment the Jays lost out and Ohtani and Soto people were flipping their lids over the team not immediately moving to alternate plans the second they had to pivot.

I can't imagine how much more freaking out would've happened if they continued to try and wait out the market, especially given that I don't think anyone predicted that Bellinger and Chapman wouldn't be signed before spring training began gearing up. Or that Montgomery and Snell would still be waiting for contracts. And what if things didn't go this way? What if the Jays tried to wait the market out and those guys moved earlier. then everyone would be angry that they sat on their hands and waited for the market to come to them.

 

[mikeyz]

Nothing like yelling about things you have no idea about. No one except the Jays and Chapman know what it would have taken for him to sign here. He was absolute trash outside the first month of the season.

The whole batting order was after the ASB.

 

[Discoverer]

Jays offered Chapman a contract - clearly they wanted him back. He rejected the initial offer, they spent money on lesser pieces, and then didn't have enough in the piggy bank left when it became clear that he would sign at a discount.

Contrast that with San Francisco for example who waited and got Soler and Chapman at far lower prices than expected, and they may get more bargains yet. At this point, I'm anticipating the Martinez contract to be on par with Turner's.



Did you find the previous Jays season to be fun? If you did, it may just be a matter of perspective, because I think most folks found it painful, and we may have gotten worse.

Yes. I love watching good pitching and defense and I love watching the Jays win. Despite just average (and often frustrating) offense, they won 89 games with arguably the best pitching and defense in the league.

I really don't understand how anyone who's watched the Jays over the last 30 years could feel like 2024 was one of the painful ones.

 

[Discoverer]

The whole batting order was after the ASB.

What's your definition of "trash"?

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I actually don't hate the offseason. After missing out on Soto and Ohtani (were we ever really in on it?) what else was there? .

Exactly. Bellinger was a big risk and I don't even know if Toronto was on his radar. Chapman was garbage offensively after April so I'm glad they moved on.

Would've liked Yung Joc, but he's a lesser piece, so not a huge missed opportunity. Slim pickings beyond that in the free agent class. And unless Jose Ramirez was available, I don't know if there were any good trading partners

Save the money for next winter when Soto (go all in), Kim (possibly; mutual option), Bregman (risky), Kepler, etc are available.

 

[Bjindaho]

The outfielder problem is a direct result of not developing any and trading away the two top of market outfielders while adding a stopgap CF (with nothing really on the horizon) and Varsho (whose value the Jays limited). Things are a little better now with Schneider and Roden, but OF depth has been an issue for years that management completely ignored.

3B is much less of a problem. Chapman replaced Espinal and was good. The issue is that IKF is the floor with multiple prospects who could take the job or the possibility of moving someone for a JD Davis (who is now redundant in SF). The Jays have a bunch of guys who could play 3B yo varying degrees including every prospect near ready.

Ikf has no guarantees of playing time where Chapman wasn't signing without it.

 

[mikeyz]

What's your definition of "trash"?

Bottom 5 in average with RISP. If I remember correctly for a large stretch there from August until the beginning of September they were actually bottom 3.

They also got shutout 8 times in a 2 week stretch in August last year as well.

I don't know about you. But I would consider that pretty trash.

 

[Bjindaho]

Bottom 5 in average with RISP. If I remember correctly for a large stretch there from August until the beginning of September they were actually bottom 3.

They also got shutout 8 times in a 2 week stretch in August last year as well.

I don't know about you. But I would consider that pretty trash.

Can't find the exact stat, but FG had them 13th in clutch over that period. And from what I remember about the stats I kept posting, the RISP problem was almost completely Springer, Merrifield, Chapman and Belt (who all had hilarious runners on/bases empty splits)